This Egyptian presidential election has all the earmarks of being a "we've never been here before" event.
Never before have we seen such a competitive contest in Egypt or, for that matter, in any Arab country. And never before have we had a presidential contest, anywhere in the world that I can recall, where we have no idea what the winner will actually win when the election is over.
At this point, the polls are too close and no clear front-runner has emerged. Anyone can still emerge victorious. This is the third major vote in Egypt in the past year. The two earlier rounds were notable for the surprises they brought. First, there was the referendum to ratify the constitutional changes put forward by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Back then, the once very popular, Mohamed El Baradei, and the always popular former Foreign Minister and Arab League Secretary General, Amr Moussa, and the youthful leaders of the Tahrir Square revolt all campaigned for a "no" vote. Just a few days before the vote, these forces were predicting victory. Meanwhile, the alliance of the SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood appeared to be working in tandem in support of the referendum. Their combined organizational strength proved decisive and carried the day, winning by a huge margin of more than three to one.
The surprise that occurred in the many rounds of the parliamentary elections was the consistent strength demonstrated by the Salafi movement. It had been expected that the Muslim Brotherhood would win handily. And they did. But what caught most observers off guard was the broad support given to Salafi candidates resulting in their party winning almost one-quarter of the seats in the new parliament.
While one might assume that these contests lay the predicate for this presidential election and can be used to project the outcome, it appears they may not provide a useful guide to the expected result for two reasons: Egyptians appear to view the presidency differently than they do the legislature; and competition among the Islamic parties and a general concern of a Muslim Brotherhood "over-reach" is producing an alliance of "strange bedfellows" which may affect voter behavior.
These factors combined have resulted in a Salafi/liberal alliance supporting the candidacy of a moderate former Muslim Brotherhood leader, Abdul Moneim Aboul Fatouh, who has since been denounced by the Brotherhood. The Brotherhood's own candidate has so far fared poorly in the polls, since even some in his own party are concerned lest their group be seen as wanting too much power too soon. Secularists and liberals have at least three candidates in the running. Far and away the leader of this group appears to be the charismatic Amr Moussa. Also scoring fairly well in various polls are former Prime Minister-for-a-month Ahmad Shafiq and leader of the Kefaya movement, Hamdeen Sabahi.
As I noted, the polling on this contest has been inconsistent -- and for good reason. Because we've never seen a competitive presidential contest of this type in Egypt, we do not know how to predict the turnout, the voter intensity, or each party's or candidate's organizational strength. And so regardless of what the polls may be saying, I would never count out the capacity of the Brotherhood or the SCAF to play a major role on election day.
As big as the question of who the winner will be, is what the job of the presidency will be like in the short term, when this election is over, and in long term, after the new constitution is written. Some Egyptians may have set high expectations for this vote, assuming that major change will occur should their preferred candidate win. Most likely, that will not be the case.
This is not a contest that will put in office a leader who will have the power of a President Mubarak or Sadat or Nasser. Past presidents came out of the military and controlled the ruling party and parliament, and the security services and the other institutions of the state. The current situation is less clear, more diffuse.
The SCAF will remain a major force to be sure and appears unlikely to surrender complete control to a civilian authority, especially if it is one they do not trust. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafi movement have control over significant blocs in the parliament and, corresponding to that, large and influential segments of the Egyptian society. And then there are those other organized forces who played such a significant role in the revolt and have demonstrated the capacity to mobilize protests.
Given all of this, the space available for the new president to act will be constrained. Parliament will weigh in on the formation of the government, the military will push back as it sees fit to protect its prerogatives, and the "street" will react when it feels compelled to do so.
As I said: "We've never been here before." This new situation in Egypt is called democracy and it is an uncertain balancing act between competing forces. It is sometimes messy and it will take time to work itself out.
It is important to remember, though, that while all this drama is playing out, Egyptians are facing a major challenge lurking in the shadows that could upset an already precariously perched applecart. And that is the state of the country's economy. It they are responsible, leaders across the spectrum will push aside differences born of self-interest and act quickly to consolidate the power of the new president and the effectiveness of the new government so that the economic crisis can be addressed as a national priority. Whether that will happen remains to be seen. After all, we've never been here before.
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And you will never be here again. With the Muslim Brotherhood poised to triumph in the Egyptian elections, the next time around, only candidates approved by a board of Mullahs will be allowed to run for office. One man, one vote, one time; Islamic democracy.
Democracy can be defined as a political regime in which the only authority derives from "the consent of the governed". And, as physicians and philosophers have long ago discovered, the only valid consent is "informed consent".
But currently the Egyptian populace is incapable of "informed consent" -- simply because it is not informed -- and in fact it is disinformed. This is a population with a high % of illiteracy; even among those who are literate, education tends to be poor. The entire population has been denied freedom of speech, freedom of information, freedom of public debate for decades, while being subjected to intensive political & religious indoctrination.
To have any chance of succeeding, transition to democracy in the Arab world should start with implementing freedom & education -- not with elections.
Don’t tell me real democracy has been rediscovered? That selection of polices has been put before the selection of personalities once more. You’ll be telling me next that the original Antikytheora computer has resurfaced, from the bottom of that turbulent sea into which it had sunk. Just like the fortunes of its country of origin, Greece.
"we have no idea what the winner will actually win"
Shouldn't the people win? That won’t happen in a fixed Western race.
"SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood appeared to be working in tandem"
Servants of the people now. But for how long?
"denounced by the Brotherhood."
Denounce all you want. Just don’t diddle with democracy.
"who the winner will be"
Vote not for each minority. But for whoever will act in the best interests of all.
"surrender complete control to a civilian authority"
only when the opportunity to betray that ultimate trust is rendered inexistent.
"As I said: "We've never been here before."
Greeks apparently have. Find out where they went wrong. Before venality moves in.
"Egypt is called democracy"
In reality, and in all of the West, its actually a republic.
"Whether that will happen remains to be seen."
You'll need transparency to see it coming.
"we've never been here before."
Then learn for the misfortunes of those that have. Communism, Capitalism, Common Market, corrupted. Don’t let that perverse pyramid scheme be your monument too.
What contemporary Egypt needs is stability, development of infrastructure and a viable and sustainable economy, some means of reducing its severe overpopulation, and opportunity for its people--and this will also mean the promotion of equal rights for ALL Egyptians, male or female. What we're seeing is the popularity of Islamists who want to curtail the rights of women and Christians, scrap the peace treaty with Israel (which has kept young Egyptians from dying for "Palestine" since the late 1970s), and repeated bombings of the gas pipeline in the Sinai.
Not very encouraging.
We'll have to wait to see if the winner is willing to hold
elections for a second time in a few years.
Messy, indeed.
um... no. Usually people get the government they deserve. They adored Nasser and Mufti of Jerusalem was a toast of the town when he escaped from Berlin.
Now Salafists and MB are all the rage.
'Nough said.
This of course is taking place while in the background, nothing of substance to date, has changed in Egypt from the Mubarak era.
The military and police still carry on as they always have. The US has continued to fund the military and police providing a support and approval for the status quo. The SCAF along with the military elite have massive entrenched business interests throughout the country giving them a common interest with the Brotherhood.
Regardless of the presidential outcome, SCAF/military/police apparatus will not cede real power. The US (from Senator McCain's visit) has gotten assurances from the Brotherhood that US economic interests / investments and the accompanying agenda will not be interrupted. That, with the de facto control of the military (through US funding) lays out the conclusion.
The US/West will not allow the fate of Egypt to fall into the hands of a civilian democracy.
The socioeconomic issues of lack of jobs, opportunities, poverty and even food gave rise to the ousting of Mubarak, yet the status quo prevails. Egypt cannot feed itself and sorely needs an economic employment targeted growth plan.
Time will tell.
Its clear that a Mubarak regime will be missed (at least fro america)