High Expectations for Obama's Speech in Egypt

Following on the heels of his meetings with a number of Middle East leaders, President Barack Obama travels next week to Egypt where, on June 4th, he will deliver a much anticipated speech to the Muslim world.

Already the topic of great speculation, there are several elements that should be considered by both the president and his audience in anticipation of his remarks.

First, expectations for the speech are high, and not without justification.

Throughout his short, but extraordinary, career, Obama has displayed a penchant for taking on big issues with big speeches. He rebounded from a defeat during the presidential primaries with a remarkable speech in New Hampshire that helped to define and infuse new hope into his campaign. When confronted with a media assault over his pastor's intemperate words, that threatened to derail his campaign, Obama responded with an inspiring speech on race, so insightful and eloquent that it will be quoted for generations.

As president, he has also taken on serious challenges with major speeches. His remarks before a joint session of Congress provided the new president the opportunity to lay out his plans to respond to the growing economic crisis. More recently, Obama travelled to Notre Dame University, the nation's premiere Catholic university, to appeal for greater civility and understanding in addressing the controversial issues of abortion and stem cell research. And when opponents persisted in deriding his decisions to ban the use of "enhanced interrogation techniques" and to close the prison facility at Guantanamo Bay, he confronted his critics directly in a speech delivered from the National Archives. With the original US Constitution and Bill of Rights as a backdrop, Obama made clear that his decisions to stop torture and indefinite imprisonment without judicial recourse were grounded in core American values derived from our Constitution.

With this background, it is reasonable for many across the Arab world to assume that Obama is coming to Cairo to deliver a "big speech." He has, after all, been planning and talking about this for over a year, since he first announced during the campaign his intention to travel abroad to speak directly to the Muslim world.

And since he is going to Cairo, at the heart of the Arab world, it is also reasonable that there are high expectations that the president will speak about the core Arab concern -- the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and not in passing. The regional context demands much more.

This introduces a second set of factors that need be considered.

President Obama's election created hope among many Arabs and Muslims, but not all. A recent poll we, at Zogby International, conducted in six Arab countries shows that in Morocco, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Obama is viewed quite favorably, and there is appreciation for early steps he has taken to restore America's image and rebuild US-Arab relations. But in Egypt and Jordan, deep skepticism remains.

Therefore, when the president travels to Egypt, it is important to recognize that he will face a nation hardened in its negative view of the US and its role in the region, and unconvinced that this or any American president can or will change policy.

Most Egyptians still view the US unfavorably. Three-quarters give President Obama a negative job rating for his first three months in office, and the same percentage say that they do not believe that he will be "evenhanded in dealing with the Arab-Israeli conflict" -- the issue which almost 6 in 10 Egyptians say is the most critical challenge facing their region.

All this points to the steep hill which President Obama must climb as he struggles to convince a weary Egyptian and Arab public that he is committed to changing direction in the wake of failed US leadership that preceded his ascent to the Oval Office. While he might have faced a more supportive audience in the United Arab Emirates or the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it is Egypt where attitudes toward America are harshest that Obama faces his greatest challenge, and it is here that the US President has chosen to deliver his speech. It is Egypt that is allied with the US, shares borders with Israel and has signed peace agreements with that state. It is in Egypt that public opinion has been the most soured by Israeli behavior (especially in the wake of the Gaza wars of 2006 and 2009), is least convinced of the prospects that a just peace can be established and of the ability of the US to be evenhanded.

All this being said, it is precisely because of the persistence of these strong negative attitudes that Obama's decision to go to Egypt was the right choice. It is there that the US President must convince skeptical Arabs that the change he promised is real. Given Egypt's sheer size and the importance of its role in the region, if President Obama can't sell his message there it may not have its desired impact anywhere.

What emerges from these considerations is the fact that despite the many domestic challenges facing this new president, he is determined to confront, head-on, a major foreign policy issue and to do so, as he did at Notre Dame, directly and dramatically. And he has chosen to do this where the audience may be the hardest to convince and where the change he has promised is most urgently sought.

This is why expectations are high and dare not be let down. This speech must be more than banal clichés ("we are not at war with Muslims") or a repetition of hollow visions. It must be bigger, more consequential and more substantial. It is a tall order, but given Obama's modus operandi, I'm counting on him to prove me right.

Comments

[karela]

This President never takes the easy way out. It is not surprising that he would opt for making his speech to the Muslim world from a country that is more critical that some others might have been. He never disappoints. I look forward to hearing what he has to say in Egypt.

[azriel]

Mr Zogby I have one qualm with you in particular­....by all measure of definition, sourcing, and wide-held regard; Notre Dame is not the premiere Catholic University in the U.S......G­eorgetown is!

[Aluyi]

Whatever He Says, Its Very Clear That He Respects The Arab And Muslim World.

[lioness39]

Thank you, Mr. Zogby, for another one of your engaging and informative articles.

[bodo]

Egypt is the largest Arab nation, and it is one of the least radicalized. Most Egyptians would prefer to show goodwill toward the United States, but we have not made that easy for them. Our half century of constant meddling on the side of Israel in what they consider purely regional affairs has disappointed them. But they still hope that Obama will bring change. If he doesn't, they will once again be severely disappointed which could have serious consequences in the entire Islamic world.

[karela]

Egypt actually has the seventh largest Muslim population in the world. The others, in order of largest to smallest are:
Indonesia 170,310,000
Pakistan 136,000,000
Bangladesh 106,050,000
India 103,000,000
Turkey 62,410,000
Iran 60,790,000
Egypt 53,730,000
Nigeria 47,720,000
China 37,108,000

As you can see, Indonesia has well over three times as many Muslims as Egypt and Pakistan has nearly three times as many. Still, Egypt was a good choice because they are so critical. Obama has the courage to go where he ISN'T popular when he sets out to win hearts and minds.

[Knute]

Just for the record, while Egypt is the 7th largest Muslim nation, that's not what Bodo said. Bodo said "Egypt is the largest Arab nation," which it is (sort of). The point is that "Muslim" is not the same thing as "Arab." Muslim is a religious designation, while Arab is a geographic/ethnic designation (referring to the people of the Arabian peninsula, such as Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and U.A.E.). While many of the people of Indonesia, Iran (Persians), and Turkey are Muslims, they are certainly NOT Arabs.

Technically, I'm not certain that Egyptians consider themselves Arab either. Egypt is immediately across the Red Sea from the Arabian Peninsula, but it is not actually part of the Peninsula itself. As one final aside, sometimes the term "Arabic world" is used along with the desiginations of Arab and Muslim. When "Arabic" is being used correctly it generally refers to the "Arabic speaking world," in the same way that Americans are part of the "English speaking world." When the terms are being used properly, the "Arabic world" is larger than the "Arab world" but smaller than the "Muslim world."

I didn't mean to make a mountain out of a molehill, but words do have meaning, and misunderstanding in our vocabulary of this part of the world is rife.

[mommamia526]

And besides, Mr. Obama has lived in Indonesia and probably has a few friends there from old times. There are no regional difficulties in Indonesia. Egypt and Jordan are both important in the ME. Both are at peace with Israel. Both have populations among the Palestinians which formerly belonged to their countries, i.e. Jordan in the PA and Lebanon and Egypt in Gaza. Order needs to be restored in the ME and Jordan and Egypt should form Federations with the Palis, sothat the populations have protection, schools, an economy and stability. It would also help if goods could be bought outright in stores, and not on the black market in Gaza at outrageous prices! The entire Gaza area used to be Egypt.

[Uchenna Oguekwe]

I see there troll roaches have crawled out from behind the walls inside the Faux News building. Although expectations are high, I think the President will live up to expectations. Most believe he did a great job at his Berlin speech and believe it or not many Muslims far and abroad like the guy and are at least willing to hear him out. I do fear for his safety and hope all security measures are used for this trip. This trip and speech are necessary as Muslims all over need to understand that groups like the Taliban and Al Qaida have done nothing to help them. They have only brought violence, bloodshed, and heartache. It is time for the US to extend our hand to everyone who is seeking peace.

[obamanomics]

Are you referring to the campaign speech in Berlin? That would be the one where they gave Germans free beer and Brats for showing up.

[gopSTEALSyourTAXmoney]

If there were snacks and beer, WOW what a PARTY.
Obama is THE MAN!

[SammyD]

don't forget the free live bands

[Freenation]

Obama will be welcomed as no other previous president in US history...­a person who gives respect receives respect it is as simple as that...

[obamanomics]

Yup, right up until he asks for something. At which point he will be given the back of their hand.

[brynnrose thorn]

The "brotherhood" needs reining in, but the Gov't. in Egypt already knows this and has been working on it steadily. What else would he have to ask them for?

[Freenation]

he is going to Egypt and not I.srael...­.

[Nate Russon]

Too bad it's only for show. Obama does what is useful for his own ends. To be adored. Anything else is secondary. See: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/narcissus_and_echo_obama_and_t_1.html

[dgscol]

SO he is continuing to bring the wrong change. The people f the US did not want "Globaliszation", but that is the change he's pedaling. The Egyptians do not want that change either. As the US implodes, imagine the Middle East with no US. Not a peaceful place.

[pangurban]

You think it is peaceful now!??

[brynnrose thorn]

Globalization is already here and that won't change. Everyone knows this, even the undereducated Repub. bases knows this. The question is not pro or con, but the best way to manage it.

[azriel]

no disrespect to you...but.­..honestly­, I don't think that even 10 people on this page, that has used the word globalization actually knows what it means--or what the ramifications of it are? It's one of those words that people throw around, which sounds nice--but are hard pressed to be able to define. Like--paradigm!

[freemind1234]

The vast majority of muslims leave outside the middle east. Malaysia, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Senegal, Mali, Libya and many more. Us Americans tend to forget how varied and diverse muslims is.

[pangurban]

True, recently in Borneo, mainly Muslim and the people were lovely, welcoming and gracious hosts.

[vinny]

watch the speech be so big it means nothing...

for a much better analysis of obama's middle eastern visit:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KE30Ak02.html

[Diogenis]

I trust how he will speak and handle himself. And I know I am not alone in this.

[brynnrose thorn]

No, you're not alone and it REALLY frosts the Repub's. pumpkin. So far, they've got nothing but the same tired old meaningless insults.

[wisecrack]

People that trust the government. Hmmm.

[Philip Combs]

President Speechy strikes again. Got bad news on being in Iraq and the 'stans forever?

Make a speech!

That Bank thing not goin' so well?

Make a speech!

Foreclosure crisis taking entire economy down tubes?

Make a speech!

Unemployment soaring into the stratosphere?

Make another gotdamn speech.

President Speechy needs to understand that Eygptians do not vote in American elections and that kicking sand in the face of the dying Republican Party is not effective economic policy.

It's the economy stupids!

[obamanomics]

The bottom line is you cannot have Potus without totus.


http://mikemoody.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/totus1.png

[williamg]

Huh?

Yes, it's the economy, stup,id. And the economy seems to be getting better, with most economists predicting an end to the recession within 1 - 6 months. Lending has resumed, dow is up 33%. Things are moving in the right direction.

Obama is attempting to build bridges between America and the Middle East. He's a grown up.

Why don't you try growing up? Your post was idio.tic and juvenile.

[obamanomics]

Name one unbiased person who claims the economy will get better in 1-6 months.

[Jazzman323]

I think if he sticks to his message, and covers his person story, the Egyptians will be fine. That life stoy thing always works well for him.

[Diogenis]

I see you miss George Bush. Oh well.

[Diogenis]

One can not kick sand in the face of the dying Republic Party. It's been buried for years.

[Dredd]

Let the world press determine how the speech goes. There is some valid scepticism out there.

I know it will be well received in the U.S. because it will be conciliatory.

But who needs to be convinced? The world or the nation?

http://blogdredd.blogspot.com/2009/05/mother-of-all-enemies.html

[obamanomics]

The nation because no matter how apologetic he is for being an American the rest of the world will treaet him exactly the same.

[Diogenis]

He does not need to be apologetic for being an American.

[Nate Russon]

Conciliatory? How about his usual groveling, America is bad speech?

[ObamacratInCA]

"The poll of six Arab nations found that residents think that Obama will have a positive impact on the Middle East — a region marked by war, religious disputes, ethnic and sectarian violence — as well as on the United States and the rest of the world.

Obama scored highest in Jordan, where 58 percent of its citizens have a favorable opinion of him, 29 percent have an unfavorable view, 6 percent had no opinion and 7 percent didn't know.

Saudi Arabians have a 53 percent favorable opinion of Obama, followed by 52 percent in the United Arab Emirates. From there, Obama's popularity dips below 50 percent with a 47 percent favorability rating in Kuwait, 43 percent in Lebanon and 35 percent in Egypt. In none of these countries, however, was Obama's unfavorable rating higher than his favorable one."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/67869.html

[Coinyer101]

I fear for his safety, there. too many know he is doing nothing about the tor turers, so, he may not be as well liked as everyone hopes.

[AngieMom57]

Relax, he is the most protected human on the planet right now.

[NO-LIE]

And so was Sadat!

[Diogenis]

Egypt is the best Country in the Middle East for him to go. He is respected and liked. The "Brotherhood", I agree, does pose danger. I feel security will be extremely tight.

[alexa07]

Let's hope President Obama can convince the Egyptians that the USA is really serious about setting new policies in the region. More than 60 yrs. of grief in Palestine is enough!

[Sentientbeing09]

Agreed.

[alexa07]

Thanks Sentient being09, we do need new & better policies. American media too needs a revamp. For too many decades we have been prevented from understanding the whole picture by the establishment.