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Listening and Learning: Arab Opinion Matters

Posted: 01/13/2012 9:30 pm

I listened attentively to Syrian President Bashar al Assad's most recent speech in which he berated the Arab League's intervention to help stem the violence currently racking his country. Claiming that he was listening to his countrymen and speaking for them and that his regime was the standard-bearer of "Arabism," al Assad denounced the League as not representing true Arab sentiment. For obvious reasons, we can't poll in Syria right now, but as the past 10 months of mass protests and the unremitting and largely regime-sponsored violence have made clear, al Assad may speak for some, but certainly not all, Syrians.

On the other hand, we have polled about Syria across the Arab World, and what we find is that it is al Assad who is out of touch with the reality of Arab opinion or, as he might put it, "the beating heart of Arabism." In every country surveyed, including Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan, we learn that overwhelming majorities of Arabs side with the Syrian demonstrators and say that it is time for the al Assad government to step down.

I love polling because it erases doubt as to what people are really thinking. What I have learned from my brother, John Zogby, is that when you survey public opinion, everyone's views count. I call it the "respectful science." You ask, they answer. Responses get organized by age, gender, education level attained, income, region and more. When you present the results, it is as if you've opened a window, letting in the voices of a society, so that you hear what they are saying about their lives, their aspirations and their attitudes.

I'm in the United Arab Emirates right now, teaching a short course on the importance of public opinion at New York University's Abu Dhabi campus. Looking at the most recent polling we have done across the Middle East and North Africa makes clear some of the problems facing this region while providing keys to solutions for some of the big issues, as well.

It is not only in Syria that we need to listen and learn. When we go next door to Iraq, where we see the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki making a power grab, exacerbating the risk of internal civil conflict, we find strong majorities deeply worried about the future of their country, rejecting division and favoring instead a government that can create jobs, end corruption, and provide the stability and basic services needed for all Iraqis to lead decent and productive lives.

While Iran's leadership is busy provocatively and aggressively playing their nuclear card, our polling there reveals that the democracy movement remains strong among Iranians. All across the country, the top priority concerns, in addition to employment, are democracy, civil and personal rights, political reform and an end to corruption.

At the same time, polling in the Arab World also offers a cautionary warning to the West's strategy to confront Iran's leaders. While it is true that Iran's favorable ratings among Arabs have plummeted and are now less than one half of what they were just five years ago, should the West or Israel attack Iran, all bets are off. Since the only countries with significantly lower favorable ratings than Iran in the Arab region are the U.S. and Israel, the best way to resurrect Iran's ratings would be for the U.S. or Israel to attack it.

While we are looking at the U.S., it too needs to listen better to Arab opinion. America's favorable ratings among Arabs, which were at dangerously low levels during the Bush Administration, got a boost from the change in policy expected by the election of Barack Obama. Three years later, U.S. favorable ratings are lower than they were in 2008, as Arabs see no change in how America relates to the issue they still see as central to their relationship with the West--that is, the unresolved matter of Palestinian freedom and dignity.

Israel, too, should listen, but given that country's hard-line direction, they have become increasingly tone deaf to Arab and world opinion. Our polls show that the Arab public still supports the Arab League's peace initiative for a two state solution, but a majority of Arabs in every country no longer believe that Israel has any interest in making peace. Prime Minister Netanyahu's behavior and U.S. acquiescence to Israel's policies are radicalizing Arab opinion creating a more dangerous and volatile environment with every passing day.

We have also polled in the two Arab countries where uprisings brought down governments, creating the possibility for change. But those who have been newly elected in Tunisia and Egypt must now pay attention to what the voices of their countrymen are saying. In both countries the number one concern is expanding employment. While Tunisians also want an expansion of democracy, and "increasing women's rights" is high up on their list of political priorities, Egyptians are more focused on the basic needs of life and "ending corruption." The success or failure of these "revolutions" will be measured by their ability to meet the expectations that inspired them.

Listening to opinion is also critical for other governments in the region. In Saudi Arabia, for example, far and away the number one concern is the need to expand employment. With a "youth bulge" necessitating the creation of three million new jobs over the next decade, Saudis want to know that their children will be educated and find meaningful work in their country. And in our surveys of business leaders in the Gulf region we find a growing concern that opportunities be created to support private sector economic growth, so that small businesses can become the engine driving this needed job creation. Business leaders recognize that it is simply not a sustainable situation for the government to be the "employer of first resort" absorbing this growing work force. The private sector must be involved.

As I explain in my recent book, Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us and Why It Matters and now in my NYU course, Arab opinion matters. It clearly matters to the West, which has long ignored Arab sentiment. But the views of the public matter within the region as well. The sooner leaders, East and West, listen and learn, the sooner real change can occur.

(For access to polling data referenced in this article, please click here.)

 

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I listened attentively to Syrian President Bashar al Assad's most recent speech in which he berated the Arab League's intervention to help stem the violence currently racking his country. Claiming tha...
I listened attentively to Syrian President Bashar al Assad's most recent speech in which he berated the Arab League's intervention to help stem the violence currently racking his country. Claiming tha...
 
 
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hfpf
Wake up World.
03:01 PM on 01/17/2012
>>>>but a majority of Arabs in every country no longer believe that Israel has any interest in making peace.

Or maybe it has something to do with this:
IDF forces arrested two Palestinians at the Salem checkpoint near Jenin in the West Bank on Monday after they were caught with 10 pipe bombs, a makeshift handgun, and ammunition. Four Palestinians were arrested last week at the same checkpoint for carrying bombs to carry out an attack on a military court. (Ha'aretz)

www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-arrests-two-palestinians-carrying-pipe-bombs-ammunition-near-jenin-1.407621
hfpf
Wake up World.
02:01 AM on 01/17/2012
>>>>but a majority of Arabs in every country no longer believe that Israel has any interest in making peace.

Maybe just maybe that's cause the Hamas charter calls fore Israel's destruction. Ya think that might influence Israel just a tad?????

Perhaps you should go out and poll the question,
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02:48 AM on 01/17/2012
Sadly, it is not only the Hamas Charter, statements and actual deeds; it is also the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)'s Charter, as well as that of the Fatah. The leadership of these organizations, of course, could put a stop to it by stating, in Arabic, Hebrew and English, their acceptance of Israel's RIGHT to be, to exist as the independent NATION-STATE OF THE JEWISH PEOPLE; and their acceptance of a peace treaty as the end of the conflict and the end of all future demands. But, despite calls to them to do so they refuse, which says a lot about the fact that they have not changed the very thrust of their activities since the Farah and the Palestine Liberation Organization were set up, long before "occupation", "settlements", "wall", "Gaza" and other such hallow slogans designed for political expediency.
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Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
12:39 AM on 01/17/2012
It never stop to amaze me how the pro-Arab groups are always pointing their finger at Israel and saying it refuse to listen..... yet please remember when you point a finger at someone else, THREE FINGERS POINT AT YOU...
09:04 PM on 01/16/2012
The average Israeli high school student dreams of an IT or biotech IPO, his or her Palestinian counterpart dreamsof becoming a Shahid. That's the problem in a nutshell.
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12:09 AM on 01/17/2012
And, sadly, no expression of regret by Mr. Zogby; no sense of introspection that is so, so typical to the culture that surrounds Israel and about which Mr. Zogby reports.
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trader14
03:41 PM on 01/16/2012
Israel negotiated peace with jordan and the peace treaty holds today, israel offered land for peace with egypt and the peace treaty holds today, over the past 10 years israel has offered land for peace with the pals 3 different times and have been told no every time. This year the pals went to the UN so they could get land without peace, sovereignty with no reciprocal recognition of a Jewish state, statehood without negotiations, an independent Palestine in a continued state of war with Israel
09:01 PM on 01/16/2012
I miss the quiet dignity of Arafat's funeral. Sad, so sad.
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Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
12:11 AM on 01/17/2012
trader14 -- well said...... How quickly Zogby and his followers are jumping on Israel and accusing her for not listening, yet I have to see ONE Arab leader willing to talk honestly with Israel, without getting all worked up on the RoR.....
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greenj76
01:03 PM on 01/16/2012
The withdrawal of US soldiers from Iraq may send mixed signals, however, it sets the stage for Bible prophecy to be fulfilled.

After many years of debate over the United States military being in Iraq and the deaths of thousands US soldiers, the United States decided to pull all of the US personnel out of Iraq. The stated mission for a US presence in Iraq has always been to help rebuild this war torn nation. Even as the United States troops pulled out, the Iraqi government is very unstable with an ever increasing tension between the three parties of the Iraqi body politic; the Kurds in the North, the Shiites in the South, and the Sunnis, the former ruling party.

This situation in Iraq, however, is in reality setting the stage for the end times scenario that can be found in Bible prophecy. Though Iran has a key role prophetically, that role does not necessarily include Iraq, according to Ezekiel 38:5. Iran will be off the scene by the time Iraq, Biblical Babylon, comes to power. Revelation 18 is the prophetic passage that speaks of the Iraqi factor in Bible prophecy and it reveals that it will be the economic center of the world.

Babylon will rule in the affairs of all of humankind on earth. From Babylon, the Antichrist will cause all who want to buy or sell any and all necessities of life to take an identification mark in order to do so, Revelation 13:16-17.
11:45 AM on 01/16/2012
You have to take Zogby's polling with a grain of salt as it is tainted by pro-Arab sentiment. While polls may be accurate 19 times out of 20 with a certain margin of error, the questions asked are usually very leading and require interpretation of results.

So, when Zogby refers to "the unresolved matter of Palestinian freedom and dignity," or to Israel becoming " increasingly tone deaf to Arab and world opinion," I wonder whether he ever polls on the issue of Palestinian inflexibility or the Arab world's desire to see Israel's destruction?

Has ever noted that a significant number of East Jerusalem Arabs invariably poll in favor of retaining Israeli citizenship even if a Palestinian state is created?

As a polling firm, Zogby's credibility is compromised.
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02:13 PM on 01/16/2012
Also, when there is a talk about territorial exchange between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, nearly 100% of Arabs living in Israel refuse to see their villages and towns coming under the control of the Palestinian Authority; preferring instead to remain citizens of the nation-state of the Jewish people... One wonders, why...??
11:23 AM on 01/16/2012
Future surveys on jobs should focus upon how people want jobs to be financed.
Free market only?
International development aid?
Raising taxes on the wealthy?
Confiscation of property of oligarchic class?
A short period of socialist centralism?

You are right to admire surveys. But you must also admire the possibilities which are opened up by the framing of questions. It ain't objective!

People want jobs. that means capitalization. Confiscate the assets of the thieves. Go on, ask about that, will you?
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erehwon2
11:21 AM on 01/16/2012
It's always a good idea for people to listen to one another, but shouldn't that listening go both ways? Perhaps if the Arab world is most concerned about improving their economic prospects and increasing freedoms, they should listen to what the West has to say since they have had more experience and success with those matters.
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11:49 AM on 01/16/2012
...or, as the saying goes: don't argue with success! Yet, the Arabs do, and with the advent of Islam in the 7th century, they have been "tone deaf", to use the author's terminology, to the rest of the world.
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08:48 AM on 01/16/2012
Since the only countries with significantly lower favorable ratings than Iran in the Arab region are the U.S. and Israel, the best way to resurrect Iran's ratings would be for the U.S. or Israel to attack it.
[...]
Prime Minister Netanyahu's behavior and U.S. acquiescence to Israel's policies are radicalizing Arab opinion creating a more dangerous and volatile environment with every passing day.
=============

Threat noted.
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05:20 AM on 01/16/2012
Israel, "tone deaf".

Yet, as I recall, since the Arab Israeli peace process commenced in 1991 at the Madrid Peace Conference, it has been the "tone deaf" Israel that presented four different peace offers and opportunities:

1) Reabin's offer, as best expressed in his speech at the Knesset in October 1995
2) Barak's offer, as presented at Kemp David, Summer 2000
3) Sharon's gesture, as it was made in the Summer of 2005
4) Olmert's peace offer as presented at the end of 2008

All have been rejected, expressed in word and violent deed alike by the "open minded" and "peace loving" Israel's counterparts.

One wonders, why...??

And, why not be a bit introspective and ask the question, once: Have we done all that is necessary to bring about an accommodation of peaceful coexistence between Arab and Jew, between the Muslim-Arab world and the nation-state of the Jewish people, Israel...??
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05:33 AM on 01/16/2012
The above four peace offers and opportunities, of course, are only a handful of those rejected - and not by the "tone deaf" Israel - as part of a pattern by the Muslim-Arab world of rejections since 1920:

1920, San Remo Conference, rejected

1922, League of Nations decisions, rejected

1937, Peel Commission proposal, rejected

1947, UN proposal, rejected

1948, Israel's peace offer, rejected

1967, Israel's peace offer, rejected

1978, Begin/Saadat offer, rejected

1995, Reabin's proposal, rejected

2000, Barak/Clinton peace offer, rejected

2005, Sharon's peace gesture, rejected

2008, Olmert/Bush peace offer, rejected

2009 to present, Netanjahu's offer to talk peace, rejected

Question: Who is really "tone deaf"...??!!
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05:53 AM on 01/16/2012
And, it was not the "tone deaf" Israel that set up in 1964, three full years before the Six-Day War, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Which part of "Palestine", may one ask, was this organization to "liberate", three full years before Israel captured the now disputed territories which had been "cleansed" of their former Jewish residents and ruled by the Arabs...??!!
11:53 AM on 01/16/2012
And in the 1930's Ben Gurion offered a bi-national state - rejected; he then offered a Jewish entity within a larger Arab state - rejected.

It's pretty clear that Arab Palestinians do not want Jews among them. They felt that this could be accomplished militarily until 1967. Since then they have used a strategy of victimhood, inventing the "Palestinian People" for this purpose. The world has been complicit in this fraud for the sake of Arab oil.
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Fireslayer
08:10 AM on 01/16/2012
Do you really think that anything you post promotes peace or reconciliation of the conflict?

Your negativity is a bit overwhelming here. You need to look in your own soul to find peace.

You need to think:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZMc4fz7z5U
Satirist1
All 4 d best in the best of all possible worlds
11:36 AM on 01/16/2012
Typical example of Firesalyer's s expression of mutual tolerance and reconciliation "It is all shuck and jive to buy more time for expansion. And let us not to forget the big grand daddy lie which is at the heart of Israeli mythology, "A land without a people for a people without a land."

With promoters of peace like that it's a wonder anyone is still left alive there.
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Fireslayer
04:17 AM on 01/16/2012
A valuable post, lost on most ideologues who project their own bias into it. Above all Arabs want peace and stability. It is what every thinking person wants. So things that promote peace are good. Things that promote instability and continued conflict are not desired.

High time for final status negotiations on all borders. Time for peace.

Salam, Shalom and peace for all.
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04:49 AM on 01/16/2012
The lack of peace that one has been observing has actually been the mass murder by Arabs by Arabs, be it in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and beyond; those eager to have "peace and stability" as the poster puts it, slaughter each other in their streets, homes and mosques.

Isn't it appropriate to ask: He who truly wishes to achieve "peace and stability" must first demonstrate his intention...??
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08:50 AM on 01/16/2012
Above all Arabs want peace and stability--on their terms.

Fixed.
Satirist1
All 4 d best in the best of all possible worlds
03:47 AM on 01/16/2012
Find below an example of a fairly common opinion heard all over the Arabs world.
Still waiting for some member of Arab elite to bravely confront, or at least acknowledge it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDoV8ZL9Xkc&feature=player_embedded
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06:24 AM on 01/16/2012
But, you see, these people are not and can't be "hard-line" as the author describes the Israeli government (governments?) since these are representatives of the "moderate" Fatah, the organization headed by Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, who also heads the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and its self-governing Palestinian Authority.
Satirist1
All 4 d best in the best of all possible worlds
12:18 PM on 01/16/2012
They are not "hard line." They are simple noble indigenous Arabs who justly seek peace, freedom and the Shariah Way from Morocco to Shanghai.
Satirist1
All 4 d best in the best of all possible worlds
12:30 AM on 01/16/2012
I was hoping for a single article on Arab opinion without an attack on Israel. Alas, this was not to be....
11:06 PM on 01/15/2012
There must be a way to disguss the feelings of the Arab world without relating it to the West or Israel. Are they bothered that much by how we live, that it affects their feeling and wishes they have for their own future.
Satirist1
All 4 d best in the best of all possible worlds
12:38 AM on 01/16/2012
Exactly!!!
The manufactured obsession with Israel is cynically manipulated by Arab elites the world over to hide and justify catastrophic economic, political and scientific failures of their leadership.