On a Collision Course With Arab Opinion

It took mass demonstrations followed by the takeover of their embassy in Egypt last week for some in Israel to wake up to the fact that the Palestinian issue remains a flash point for Arab public opinion. The U.S. Congress and policy makers in Washington, on the other hand, appear to remain oblivious to this rather obvious reality.

Reflecting this "new" awareness in Israel, an article in the Washington Post ("Israel faces a new consideration: The Egyptian public"), discusses the debate these developments have provoked within Israel. The article cites comments by Elie Podeh, described as "an expert on Egypt and its relations with Israel" at Hebrew University, calling for a "substantive peace initiative" to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians. Podeh is further quoted saying, "if we want to somehow soften the criticism in the Arab World, and specifically in Egypt, we should adopt a different policy. Sometimes we don't understand the depth of their commitment to the Palestinian issue".

The importance of Palestine to Arabs is not exactly news. Our public opinion polls across the Middle East have consistently demonstrated the central role this issue plays in shaping the Arab world view. And it has long been known (though not always acted upon) by U.S. policy makers. It was, for example, acknowledged twenty years ago by then Secretary of State James Baker when he challenged a Congressional committee to understand the important role played by the Palestinian issue for Arabs.

Then, shortly after the end of the first Gulf War, General Norman Schwarzkopf again reminded Americans of this fact when he noted that "the most important factor to stability and peace in the Middle East is the resolution of the Palestinian question... this is the major impediment to peace".

And more recently, General David Petraeus caused some discomfort in Congress when he further developed Schwarzkopf's views, observing that the Israeli-Palestinian "conflict foments anti-American sentiment, due to a perception of U.S. favoritism for Israel. Arab anger over the Palestinian question limits the strength and depth of U.S. partnerships with governments and peoples... and weakens the legitimacy of moderate regimes in the Arab world. Meanwhile, al Qaeda and other militant groups exploit that anger to mobilize support."

So the importance of Palestine is known. But what is shocking is the degree to which politics in Washington still fails to fully grasp and/or act on this point. For decades, the Congress and successive administrations have behaved as if they could pursue a blindly one-sided pro-Israel policy and still successfully win support in the Arab World, ignoring the region's strong sensitivity to the Palestine issue. To some degree, they got away with it. Arab public opinion became embittered, turning against the U.S. over our ignoring Palestinian rights. But the fall out was contained, for a time, by "moderate" Arab leaders, who, as General Petraeus noted, "lost legitimacy" in the process.

In the midst of the dramatic upheavals that are rocking the Arab World, however, all bets are off. Now Arab public opinion matters to their leaders, and it should matter to us, as well. President Obama recognized this new reality, when in his remarks to AIPAC last May he cautioned that "a new generation of Arabs is reshaping the region. A just and lasting peace can no longer be forged with one or two Arab leaders. Going forward, millions of Arab citizens have to see that peace is possible for that peace to be sustained."

With this as a backdrop, I worry that both Congress and the administration are on a dangerous collision course with Arab public opinion.

This week, the Palestinians will bring their just demand for recognition to the United Nations for a vote. The Obama administration has not only gone on record saying that they will veto a resolution in the Security Council and vote "no" in the General Assembly. They have also expended vast amounts of political capital pressing the Palestinians and Arab states not to introduce the measure and urging the Europeans to join us in opposing the effort.

For their part, Congress has made it clear that should the Palestinians go forward with their plans, U.S. assistance to the Palestinian Authority should be terminated. Not satisfied with passing resolutions to this effect, one-fifth of the Congress traveled to Israel and the Occupied Palestinian land to personally deliver this threat to the P.A. And last week Congressional leadership sent a letter to E.U. allies urging them to vote against the Palestinian resolution.

All of this points to a looming and most unnecessary disaster. With our most recent polling across the Arab World showing U.S. standing at an all-time low, we can ill afford to be so deliberately and aggressively flaunting Arab sensibilities, especially when we know better. Trying to pull Israel's "chestnuts out of the fire" is one thing; getting our fingers burned in the process, is something else. The stakes are too high for such self-inflicted wounds.

Those wise to Washington's ways will feign impotence, claiming that domestic politics (meaning Congress' fear of AIPAC's revenge), will inhibit the administration from acting differently in order to protect our interests. They will point to the brazenness of Netanyahu's display of dominance over Congress and the White House last May, and ask "what else can the administration do?"
For starts, we could begin by recognizing that not only do the U.S. and Israel face domestic political pressures, Arabs do, too. After two decades of failed negotiations, during which time settlements in the West Bank doubled, Palestinians need a moral boost. And after decades of anger at the failure of the U.S. to take seriously Arab concerns with Palestine, our actions are being closely scrutinized across the region.

With that in mind, even at this late date, the administration could make a sharp strategic pivot from opposition to constructive engagement with the Palestinians to help craft a resolution that would give them what they need while laying out the parameters for meaningful negotiations to occur. At the same time, instead of fueling their angst, we could help talk the Israelis and their supporters down from their panic, making it clear that the recognition of the Palestinian right to a state in no way preempts the need to negotiate the implementation of that right.

There are no guarantees this will work, but such an approach would enhance our standing, strengthen our diplomacy, and give us a much needed boost instead of a humiliating loss we can ill afford.

Alas, this change in direction is not likely to occur. And so, in all probability later this month, the U.S. will vote "no" on a resolution to recognize a Palestinian state; Israel will seek retribution against the "uppity" Palestinians by adding new settlements and placing new pressures on the occupied lands; Congress will then call for a suspension of aid; and the Arab World will be enraged.

There will be consequences, because Palestine matters and Arab opinions matter. And in the context of the Arab Spring, they matter more than ever.

Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010) and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American-community.

 

Follow James Zogby on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AAIUSA

Comments

[batguano]

08:50 AM on 09/20/2011

The US has indeed taken our relationship with the Arab street & especially Palestinians for granted; often very one-sidedly & lacking basic justice for Palestinians.

The pro-Israel lobby in the US & their ability to subvert our sovereignty through control over a substantial number of elected representatives have great power to influence our foreign policy in favor of another nation at great expense to our best interests; that factual reality is at the core of the problem. Perhaps if Palestinians had the same influence & money to hold our electoral process hostage as The Lobby, they would be "worthy" of the "honest broker" status we claimed for ourselves & made a mockery of. Our national honor has been for-sale to Israeli interests/influence for a very long time, IMO, or is this subversion of our sovereignty something much more dangerous to our nation?

As usual, we will probably continue to tarnish our national honor at the UN, & sell ourselves cheap to the expansionist agenda & intransigence of Israeli extremists & their lobby. Israel’s failure/refusal to build trust & enter good-faith negotiations to end this half-century long “conflict” is apparently beyond their ability or intentions.

The scrambling of the US and Israel to find a way out, and scuttle this UN vote, international recognition of the State of Palestine, and what that will mean under International Law, after ignoring the “negotiations” they are now so insistent on for years, is hilarious.

[not2 good]

06:07 PM on 09/19/2011

We should return to the time before the UN vote to create a Jewish State. Israel was granted fifty percent of the Arab real estate. Jerusalem was to be an international city. Go back to that premise and establish borders. The UN, in their haste to create a Jewish State, failed to do so at that time. Let's do it now. At this time Israel controls one hundred percent of the land. Its expansionist policies and sence of entitlements will never end.

[finlandstation]

08:44 PM on 09/19/2011

not to smart, no, jerusalem was mostly ceded over to the arabs, who, after the u.n. vote viciously attacked the jewish state. and fyi, this was never arab land! jews have lived (continuously) on that dirt thousands of years longer than the arabs who occupied parts of palestine in 1948. also, there was no "expansion" in 48, o 56 or 67, jews were confined to defending the borders granted to them by the u.n. it was the arabs who relentlessly tried to expand into the state of israel. fortunately, their imperialist reach failed.

[simcha]

12:33 PM on 09/19/2011

I suggest that the Arabs involved in this "collision course" start paying attention to what THEIR leaders are saying, albeit, out of both sides of their mouth at any given time, but be that as it may...
As is usual, it is instructive to read the ME press without the tender ministrations of Mr Zogby' and his friends, here to try to convince us that what we read and hear and see, is not really true. Just a lack of understanding and empathy on the part of the the west.
And here is how the poor misunderstood Palestinian Arabs meanwhile, are treated by their concerned country-people.

Interview: Refugees will not be citizens of new state

Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2011/Sep-15/148791-interview-refugees-will-not-be-citizens-of-new-state.ashx#ixzz1YPpjXry8
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

[Calamity Jack]

06:33 PM on 09/19/2011

And?

So the citizens of Palestine will be the people who reside in Palestine... and?

Obviously the refugees from the 1948 war will have to be dealt with in a humanitarian way. I would think that any wh were displaced from the lands of the new Palestinian state will be able to apply for the recognition of their right to return to their prior residences, but that will either need to be negotiated or laid out by the Palestinain government.

Or do you believe that a country does not have the soverign right to determine who becomes residents and citizens of the country?

[simcha]

07:31 PM on 09/19/2011

Yes I absolutely do believe that a country has the right to determine who becomes residents and citizens of the country. That is why I support Israel's position about the *right of return* as well as Israel's right to self-determination. And the two state scenario.

My comment and the posting of the link were not to argue your point.

[discocapper]

11:44 AM on 09/19/2011

Actually James the average Israeli cares more about the plight of ordinary Palestinians [the ones who don't launch rockets] than Arab governments, who use the Palestinians only for political folly while caring nothing about them.

[not2 good]

05:47 PM on 09/19/2011

If that is true it proves what a disaster Mr Nethuahu is. The moderates have no voice.

[discocapper]

06:19 PM on 09/19/2011

We can argue all day whether Bibi is a good leader or not. Israelis can vote out a gov't if they don't like it. Where there is no argument is that in Israel Arabs and Jews can assemble in the streets in protest without fear of being shot by their gov't. That is why Israel is better than the countries that surround it and hate it for one fact and one fact only -- because it is a Jewish State. That is what the entire conflict is about.

[any mouse]

11:29 AM on 09/19/2011

What do we do if the Saudi King threatens to stop selling oil if the US doesn't abstain in the UNSC?

How quickly after he says that will oil hit $500/bbl?

What will the US do then?

Threaten to attack Saudi Arabia?

Not a good idea since the Saudis are well equipped militarily and not only that but as Iraq and Libya have clearly demonstrated the FIRST thing that happens during a war is the oil stop flowing.

I don't know if the old guy has the guts, but I do know that the Saudis have been distancing themselves from the US and aligning more with China.

This vote could get very costly for Americans very quickly.

BTW - when oil hits $500/bbl, how many Walmart food trucks will rolling?

[garysgary]

11:19 AM on 09/19/2011

George Washington wrote in his farewell address to the nation that The United States should not become too close to any one nation...lest their enemies become our enemies. And he was right.

The Arab world and the Muslim world don't have to be our enemies...except for the fact that we are far too close to Israel.

Imagine how much better off the US would be if we had not had to fight a 40 year war on Arabs and Muslims. Erase all the terror attacks, oil embargoes, embassy bombings. Erase the kidnapping of our embassy officials, Erase the downed airliners and erase two wars that didn't have to happen. Bring back all the Americans that have died in this war on terror.

None of this had to happen....except for our support of Israel.

Foolish....Israel is America's big folly.

[Macready]

12:16 PM on 09/19/2011

100 billion xs fanned garysgary . . . ditto

[just a voice here]

02:10 PM on 09/19/2011

garysgary...seems you forgot about the Barbary Coast wars the US had with Muslims. The war stemmed from the Barbary pirates’ attacks upon American merchant shipping in an attempt to extort ransom for the lives of captured sailors, and ultimately tribute from the United States to avoid further attacks. In March 1785, Thomas Jefferson and John Adams went to London to negotiate with Tripoli's envoy, Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdrahaman (or Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja). Upon inquiring "concerning the ground of the pretensions to make war upon nations who had done them no injury", the ambassador replied: It was written in their Koran, that all nations which had not acknowledged the Prophet were sinners, whom it was the right and duty of the faithful to plunder and enslave; and that every mussulman who was slain in this warfare was sure to go to paradise. The U.S. paid the ransom, and continued to pay up to $1 million per year over the next 15 years for the safe passage of American ships or the return of American hostages. Payments in ransom and tribute to the privateer states amounted to 20% of the U.S. government's annual revenues in 1800.

None of this had to happen....­Israel didn't exist as a nation.

[garysgary]

10:48 AM on 09/19/2011

Precisely what I've said for years. AIPAC and it's congress (the congress that used to be ours) are working against the interests of the American people. It is in our interest to build good bridges to the Arab world. It is not in our interest in keep supporting Israel in any way.

Can you say "oil embargo."

[erehwon2]

10:34 AM on 09/19/2011

Why should we be concerned with Arab opinion? It's not a matter of wanting to be in accord with those who share the same goals and values, and even Mr. Zogby's article does not posit this. Instead, he mentions the threat of reprisals and terrorism against us should we not fall into line with what the Arab street appears to want.

If we base our actions on fear rather than principles, though, then we only encourage more 9/11's because we'd have proven that such fear works.

Is it in everyone's best interests to forge a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Absolutely. But how we go about encouraging that should not be influenced by Arab opinion expressed in such manners as mobs storming an embassy or Islamist extremists rattling their sabres.

[JerryLevy]

09:53 AM on 09/19/2011

Yes Mr. Zogby, you are right. We believe in complete freedom of religion, equal rights for women, the rights of Gays to be left alone, we believe in capitalism and freedom of the press. We also believe Israel should not be destroyed and that the Palestinians who have failed to adhere to any interim treaty they have signed should be held accountable. So yes, Mr. Zogby. If "Arab Opinion" which is generated from state controlled press, dysfunctional dictators, and hate filled Imams does not coincide with American opinion, I am not surprised. But I would say the last thing we want to do is forget about our convictions and values and try to appease "arab opinion."

[Jan Allen McDaniel]

10:48 AM on 09/19/2011

We are seeing the end stages of an effort to appease ideological thugs not seen since Chamberlain.

Buckle up.

[Tasies]

12:10 PM on 09/19/2011

Yes, we've been appeasing the right wing Zionist quacks and settlers for decades now. Of course, since they're not Muslims you demonstrate no interest in acknowledging their particular brand of entitlement and religious extremism. Should I submit to you the lengthy list of "ideological thugs" the US has appeased in the past century. Let's be serious here, you are very well fine and dandy with the appeasement of extremist as long they're not Muslims.

[Patriotic Yankee]

09:23 AM on 09/19/2011

A great article that will be ignored by our bought-and-paid-for "leaders".

[johnvilvens]

07:57 AM on 09/19/2011

There are many problem that need to be worked out first. Where is a map of where this country will be? What will be the capital? Will they agree that isreal is a country as well? As most I do not know about what is going on so I do not know what should be done. But the countries over there need to work things out. America cannot decide what should be done, as america has try to for 50 years and has gotten no where

[JerryLevy]

09:54 AM on 09/19/2011

Your key comment is "will they agree that Israel is a country as well?" So far, the answer is no.

[Calamity Jack]

06:42 PM on 09/19/2011

If you live in 1992, maybe. Time to update your talking points to something from this millenium.

[kanook67]

07:53 AM on 09/19/2011

How would you like it if the army from the country next door to you came knocking on your door and told you to get the heck out then sent in these giant bulldozers to flatten your house and the rest of the little town you live in order to build a huge "settlement" and this happened over and over until there were over 350,000 "settlers" occupying your ever shrinking county??

[JerryLevy]

09:55 AM on 09/19/2011

This did not happen. Has never happened. Almost all "settlements" were built on vacant land. A few settlements did take some houses that were purchased from the original owners. Your scenario is just not factual.

[garysgary]

10:53 AM on 09/19/2011

And yours isn't either.

[kanook67]

04:47 AM on 09/20/2011

Tell that to the family of Rachel Corrie, an American member of the International Solidarity Movement, who in 2003 while acting as a human shield to block the destruction of some Palestinian homes was ruthlessly run down and killed by an Israeli bulldozer. One of the ships trying to get humanitarian aid into Gaza in 2010 was named in her honour. The destruction of entire Palestinan villages is well documented in many fine documentaries on the BBC. Viewers of American TV are shielded from this reality so it's no surprise that most Americans aren't aware of these atrocities.

[Baghooli]

12:49 AM on 09/19/2011

Mr. Zogby,
One not to need to trash Palestinians supporters (ie: Iranians) to carry favor with one's who lost it all in battlefields or political courts, it will do you good to have a winner in world court!

[Erewhon7]

10:10 PM on 09/18/2011

Arab opinion is fundamentally ( no pun itended) is a variant on the imperialist Islamic mythology of entitlement in the Middle East. Where any and all lands, and cultures ever conquered by Islamic Jihads are considered to be Allah-given to Muslim Arabs in perpetuity.
Everyone else's cultural narrative in the Middle East is considered to be invalid and is opposed ideologically, and militarily..

[meb1357]

10:54 PM on 09/18/2011

Frankly I can not believe that a Zionist, who by definition believes that Palestine was promised to the Jews by god, would have the audacity to (erroneously) criticize Arabs, for according to him believing they have a god-given right to the land.
Please consult a mirror.

[Erewhon7]

11:24 PM on 09/18/2011

I am an atheist. I don't believe in a will of any god.
I support self-determination rights of Middle Eastern Jews. You don't.
Let's just leave it at that.

[JerryLevy]

09:57 AM on 09/19/2011

Your personal attack aside, the statement above is not erroneous. Just look at the Arab media, religious figures, and the governments and what they are saying in Arabic to their people. It is exactly this.

[Baghooli]

12:50 AM on 09/19/2011

Yiddish!

Do tell me if I need to be stand corrected!

[Erewhon7]

03:00 AM on 09/19/2011

Neither you nor I know what you''re talking about.

[Elizabeth Schwartz]

10:25 AM on 09/19/2011

Yiddish is the language of Ashkenazi Jews who lived in Eastern Europe. It is not, and has never been, the lingua franca of Israel. What does your statement have to do with anything in this thread - other than a tenuous (and non-geographic) link to random Jews?

[Ouaouaron]

07:35 AM on 09/19/2011

So true.

[Patriotic Yankee]

09:30 AM on 09/19/2011

For an "Atheist", you sure are a Zionist.