Amidst all the fuss about President Obama's sagging poll numbers, the struggling U.S. economy, and "who's up and who's down" in the Republican presidential primary contest, American University professor Allan Lichtman has issued his "sure fire" prediction for the outcome of the November 2012 election.
Lichtman is no crystal ball gazer. His predictions are based on a formula he developed in 1981 in collaboration with a Russian geophysicist, who had previously specialized in creating models used to forecast earthquakes. Their approach was based on a thorough analysis of the forces at work in shaping the political landscape in every U.S. presidential elections from 1860 to 1980. From this examination they developed their predictive model. And since then, Lichtman has used it to correctly forecast the outcome of every election from 1984 through 2008.
Instead of looking at polling numbers which show a snapshot of public opinion at a point in time, Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the society, viewing them as if they were tectonic plates whose shifting below the surface have the ability to create rumblings that can alter the political landscape. He identified 13 such indicators and calls them the "13 Keys to the Presidency."
According to Lichtman, if the incumbent party (that is, the political party that is currently in the White House) can claim eight of the "13 Keys," then they can be assured of victory in the next election. If, on the other hand, they hold seven or less, they are headed for defeat.
The "13 Keys" (with some explanatory notes) are:
1. Incumbent-party mandate: In the last congressional election, the incumbent party increased its seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
2. Nomination-contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination (as Carter faced from Senator Edward Kennedy in 1980).
3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third-party challenge (which can be seen to garner at least 5 percent of the vote -- as was the case in 1992 when Ross Perot won 19 percent, helping Clinton defeat Bush).
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not currently in a recession.
6. Long-term economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth is equal to or greater than it was during the past two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest (of the magnitude of the civil rights and anti-Vietnam movements).
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by a major scandal (like Watergate or the Clinton impeachment).
10. Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs (like Vietnam or the Iran hostage crisis in 1980).
11. Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs (such as winning World War II).
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero (much like Eisenhower in 1952 or Obama in 2008).
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero (as Reagan was in 1980).
At the end of December 2011, I hosted Lichtman on my TV show, Viewpoint, where he issued his "one year before the election" prediction. According to Lichtman, the only three "Keys" which President Obama has definitely lost, to date, are #1, #6 and #12. Democrats clearly suffered significant losses in the 2010 mid-term elections (Key #1); the economy will not recover sufficiently to mark an increase in per capita income (Key #6); and while Obama was a charismatic figure in 2008, his aura has diminished and will not be a major factor in his favor in 2012 (Key #12). That makes three "Keys" gone. In addition, there are a few that are questionable, namely: Key #10 and Key #11 -- since it is not clear that killing bin Laden or the withdrawal from Iraq will be seen as "victories," or, conversely, that instability in Iraq and Afghanistan or a dreaded future terrorist attack will constitute a "foreign policy failure."
Nevertheless, this still leaves a maximum of 10 "Keys" and a minimum of eight "Keys" in the president's favor, enough for Lichtman, who has never been wrong, to confidently predict Obama's reelection in November.
To watch the segment of "Viewpoint" and hear Lichtman's full analysis click here.
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1. the military killed osama
2. unemployment down below 8.5%
3. people started to buy house again and economy is getting better
4. hes black, lol
If that wasn't enough then the dramatic increase in the US's global reputation, and ability to persuade/convince other nations towards our vision could also be seen as a success.
Not to mention al-Qaeda is broken, and we've wrapped up 2 wars, or at least the occupancy phase of them, which is phase that protesters usually have fun with.
Anyway. I am a man of my own politics, I do not subscribe to Democratic or Republican ideologies, I can think for myself!
I do see Obama with a significant victory, he has been a great president in many ways. There are a few things that I do have significant worries about such as the NDAA and PIPA and SOPA, and of course the economy in general. However, I'd rather have to negotiate and protest these things then endure the Republican parties fear-mongering, ignorance-inducing, lying, manipulation, deregulation, rich-catering, middle class destroying, poor-loathing crap.
When any single GOP candidate runs against Obama, the differences in substance, style, personality, charisma, intelligence and vision for the country will be quite stark, no matter who the candidate is.
And whatever false narrative the GOP and the right wing echo chamber tries, will be corrected and countered effectively by Obama's team...and they'll certainly have the resources and talent to accomplish that.
A lie, oft repeated, does not become truth, but it may not matter.
Buddy Roemer is already declaring he will run, and he's a far better candidate than say, Santorum or Gingrich in terms of populism as well as background (4 terms in Congress, ex-gov of Louisiana, MBA from Harvard, a banker). My feeling is (and I get a bit paranoid about this) that the Board of Americans Elect really wants Jon Huntsman to be its star participant. In fact, I wonder if the reason they are NOT transparent about who their backers are is that one of the big ones is Huntsman's father who is a billionaire.
I also give him #10 and 11, Foreign military success..
That makes it 11 out of 13 for me.
Unfortunately, the model is based on "normal" conditions. You know...when people are not crazed.
And people are crazed right now. All bets are off.
I'm just afraid we will have to have a crash and burn before we get there and then it might be too late. I believe the far right wants the crash and burn as their last chance to control A future...but not one I want to live in.