As we mark one year into the Obama era, several realities have become painfully clear.
● There are limits to what a U.S. President is willing or able to do. Obama began his term in a rush to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace, which he claimed was in "America's national security interests." One year later and he appears to be no longer in a rush. In recent interviews he has analyzed the reasons for the failure to make progress and he pointedly ignored any mention of the issue in his State of the Union. What, of course, is distressing is that in addressing the other unrealized priorities he set for his first year (health care, reform of the banking industry, and energy/climate change), the President has made clear his determination to fight "the lobbyists and special interests" standing in the way of change. There are no indications he'll extend this same fighting spirit to Middle East peace. His team, headed by George Mitchell, will continue to work in the field, but for now, with a sluggish economy, still staggeringly high unemployment, and Congressional elections in November, unless an unlikely "breakthrough" is in the offing, Obama will direct his personal energies on issues upper-most on the minds of voters.
● Both the Israeli and Palestinian political situations have become seriously dysfunctional. Obama has alluded to this in recent interviews and at a Town Hall session in Florida, last week. This problem is even more significant than the President suggested. Israeli hardliners and religiously fanatic settlers pose a serious threat not only to Palestinians, but to any Israeli government that tries to uproot West Bank settlements. They are a "civil war in the making" and the danger they pose must be recognized and confronted. While Israel has, at times made a show of taking them on, albeit in a limited way, I fear no coalition Israeli government is ready to wage the fight needed to defeat these elements. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu feels that he has successfully "gamed" the U.S. Administration and has been emboldened by his "victories."
On the Palestinian side, the situation can only be described as distressed. The Palestinian Authority's leadership, already weakened by their 2006 electoral loss, and their deep internal division, has been further hurt by the "limbs" the U.S. walked them out on (a settlement freeze and the initial rejection of the Goldstone Report), only to abandon them in the end. And despite the disasters which Hamas' failed leadership has helped to bring down on their people, they don't appear ready to change direction any time soon.
● Finally, there is the demonstrated weakness of the Arab States to use their collective strength to launch any "game changing" diplomatic initiatives. Arabs should not have waited, as they did, for Obama to take office. The period between the 2008 election and the Inauguration provided an excellent opportunity to put forward an Arab initiative to which the new President would have been forced to respond. Instead, it was Israel that attempted to greet the incoming Administration with what they hoped would be their disastrous "game changing" war to eliminate Hamas. And when, at the beginning of his term, Obama challenged the Israelis, Palestinians and the Arab states to make "confidence building" gestures to create an improved environment for peace-making, once again the Arabs had the opportunity to advance their own proposals. And once again, they did not.
And so here we are one year gone, the wind is out of the President's sails, the situation on the ground is more troubled and complicated, and the Israelis, though facing some international pressure, are feeling that they have regained the upper hand in the U.S. What can be done? The answer to this question is, most certainly, not to wait for "magic" from Obama or Mitchell. There are concrete steps Arabs can take during this period. First and foremost on the agenda should be to follow the Saudi lead to achieve a broader Arab consensus that will both restore some degree of Palestinian unity, pressing and helping them to rebuild their house and support an institution-building effort, like that laid down by Salam Fayyed. It will also be important for the Palestinians to lay out an agenda for confronting the occupation and activating and mobilizing their base in non-violent direct action. The demonstrations in Sheikh Jarrah and at the Wall demand attention. They can provide the basis for expanded joint Palestinian-Israeli action.
Such a program can help reenergize the Palestinian base, bring the leadership and their constituency into a closer working relationship, and draw international support creating new leverage for Palestinians in future negotiations. If this is augmented by a renewed Arab peace initiative with a strong public relations component, it may provide a constructive "game changer" that could pressure both Israel and US to respond.
Dec. 2009 "If there is a total freeze of settlement activity AND recognition of 1967 borders, yes, we will go to negotiations," Abbas said."
Dec 2009- “Abbas's refuses to start new peace negotiations without a comprehensive freeze on the expansion of its settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem."
Nov. 2009:" "PA demands lifting of the Gaza blockade as a precondition to negotiations."
Aug.14th 2009. "PA is resolved not to renew peace negotiations with Israel until all Palestinian prisoners are released from Israeli jails."
Oct. 2009 Abbas-- "no negotiations unless there is settlement freeze and Israel agrees to a two-state solution. "
October 2008
Egyptian Weekly"... Mahmoud Abbas says he is prepared to resume peace talks with Israel without preconditions."
June 4, 2009
"Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday laid down his conditions for renewing stalled peace negotiations with Israel. "
Jul 8, 2009
Abbas statement in Belgrade, "We do not accept any preconditions nor do we make one."
Tragicomedy in full view.
Reminiscing about negotiations with ex-PM Olmert he confirmed that he refused.... REFUSED to accept land where Israeli Arabs live.
Quote:: "I explained from the beginning that I would not accept anyone (from the Palestinians of Israel)."
!!!
These are the same Arabs which often are proud to call themselves Palestinains and yearn to be part of Palestinian self -determination.
Except..... Palestinains, don't... want... them...!! astonishing....
The bedrock of Arabic politics is discomfort Israel at any cost.possible. At any cost, inclduing betrayal and punishment of Palestinians themselves..
This asotnishing concept is at the very center of the Israel- Arab conflict.
Jabotinsky was so right when he said that noone - not even Palestinian Arabs - wiilingly give up their land.
So what to do? Make sure conditions are such that they must never think it's worth retaliating against their plight.
You want them to provide you with absolution not confidence.
This article, actually, is heading in the right direction. Usually, when Zogby writes advice on solving the Arab's war against Israel, he usually only asks the Israelis to make compromises. His suggestion in this article that the Arab dictatorships help Obama by making some minor "confidence building" gesture to the Israelis is a breakthrough. If it ever happens, I'm sure that the Israelis would find it difficult not to respond in kind.
I'll keep watching for the gestures, and the flying pigs, with great anticipation.
The sober reality is that due to failures of Arafat at Camp David and the astonishingly misguided decision to begin a war of terrorism on Israeli people, Israel left-wing consensus simply fell apart.
IN 2010 the sober facts are such:
Israeli rightwing government is not all that enthused by Palestinains state idea.
The disjointed Palestinian governance at war with itself and Israel.
Iranian and Syrian controllers of Hamas and various other Islamicst organizations are adamantly opposed to a peace deal..
Chance for a comprehensive deal at this point --close to nil.
Having said, that events in the Middle East always have a way of confounding predictions.
No one expected the historic Sadat speech in Knesset..
Decade ago no one could predict al that Egypt and Saudi Arabia will be assisting Israel in defeating Palestinian organization ( Hamas.).
When these subsidised immigrants feel that their cosy all expenses paid idyll is terminally threatened then they'll turn into the massive problem Israel chooses to brush under the carpet.
See - there's always a problem when monsters are created - they can turn on their creators.
http://www.ifamericansknew.org/us_ints/pg-nyt2.html
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v28/n06/john-mearsheimer/the-israel-lobby
http://www.muzzlewatch.com/category/aipac/page/2/
http://www.ifamericansknew.org/us_ints/pg-nyt2.html
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v28/n06/john-mearsheimer/the-israel-lobby
http://www.muzzlewatch.com/category/aipac/page/2/
It's already been verified that they aren't producing nuclear weapons; the only people adamant that they are making them are the US and Israeli governments.
Secondly, the title of 'Middle East Peace' is a complete misnomer. 'Israeli-Palestinian Peace', sure, but that won't change anything much beyond that neighborhood. The rest of the Middle East will still hate Israel, wish them out of existence, etc, etc. They'd just have to find another reason to claim to care about. I doubt it would change much of anything, in the same way that I doubt that many throughout the region really care about the plight of the Palestinians, anyway. The 'reasons' for the broader animosity will not magically go away.
The mid-east is the male mindset and completely out of touch with the real world in the 21st century.
You are all killing your own children.
Change is inevitable. Growth is optional.
Grow up.
~mom