Tunisia is on my mind. Events unfolding there have been both dramatic and inspiring, and are dominating discussions across the Arab World.
The scenes coming from Tunis have been riveting. A peaceful mass revolt that persisted in the face of repression and violence has brought down a dictator and a government in a marvelous display of "people power".
We have seen few instances of mass mobilization like this before in the Arab World. Generations ago, there were the uprisings against colonial domination across North Africa. More recently, the region witnessed the first Palestinian Intifada and the massive street demonstrations in Lebanon that followed the assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. But these have been few and far between, and, more to the point, the hopes that accompanied them have gone largely unfulfilled.
Going back a century or so, the impact of colonial domination and imperial manipulation (Sykes-Picot, Balfour, etc) has taken a toll. The region was occupied, deeply wounded, dismembered, and transformed, against the will of its inhabitants. Scars remain. For one, there is a gnawing sense that history is made by others, that life is "out of control". In the face of this malaise, Tunisia is strong medicine.
While I do not agree with those who assume that this movement is automatically transferable to other countries, there is no doubt that it is a transformative moment that has inspired many Arabs. But those who force parallels with the fall of the "Iron Curtain" are mistaken. There is no Soviet Empire or occupation army here. Each Arab country has evolved differently, has unique internal dynamics, and governments that enjoy varying degrees of legitimacy. And notions of "spontaneous combustion" -- or "what caught fire here will spread there" -- are, at best, apolitical, ahistorical, naïve fantasies -- not unlike the neo-conservatives' notion that the fall of Saddam would unleash a democratic transformation across the region.
What is indisputable, though, is that Tunisia has captured attention, generated excitement and become an inspiration to many Arabs. There is, of course, a difference between being inspired by a performance and repeating that performance.
And so right now we are left to marvel at the power and bravery of the Tunisian masses and to wonder. We must wonder, for example, why and how the regime crumbled so quickly, and what internal dynamics were at work that convinced Ben Ali to leave, the party to fall apart, the feared and omnipresent security services to lose control, and the army to pull back.
And we must wonder about the mobilization, itself. There is, no doubt, a fascinating back story yet to be told of how this movement came together, found its discipline and organization, and sustained itself. It is clear that new media played an important role, but that, alone, is not sufficient to explain this effort. What was, for example, the role of the organized labor movement or Ennahda, or other forces in civil society? Was there cooperation or competition amongst these groupings, and if competition, which will emerge as the "driver" moving forward?
And because so much is still unclear, we must wonder where it will go, what leaders will emerge and what direction the "new" Tunisia will take.
As I've watched these developments unfolding, I've been thinking about a group of young Tunisians I met almost two decades ago. They were nephews of a friend of mine who lived in the Washington area. He knew that I was going with an American delegation to Tunis to participate in a conference on democracy that was sponsored by the ruling party on the 4th anniversary of Ben Ali's assumption of power. My friend encouraged me to take some time to meet his nephews telling me that it would give me some perspective on the problems in Tunisia and an alternative view of the country's political scene.
His nephews were, in fact, bright and politically active on their campus in a branch of the outlawed Ennahda party. After a few hours speaking with them I was so glad I had detoured from my conference to get to know them. They were quite challenging in their views and full of anger and idealism and demands for change. But they were also kids, and like college kids everywhere they were drawn to the changing culture of the times and wanted to share in all its possibilities. Most of all, they wanted to know what the future had in store for them. True, they had embraced a religious ideology that was neither progressive nor open to the changing global culture to which they were also attracted, but they wanted and had the right to be taken seriously.
When I returned to the conference later that day I spoke about these young people -- of the need to be open to their idealism and their hopes for change and to be able to provide them with a vision of the future that would inspire them. Because the justice minister of Tunisia had just spoken about the threat posed by these groups, I turned to him and said, "you must not dismiss them. They should be engaged and inspired. They are your future". I was stunned by his harsh response. He said that if they demanded and demonstrated in the streets "they would be engaged by police and a strong hand".
I have also been thinking about a group of strong and smart young Tunisian women who were at this conference. When they spoke they expressed deep concerns about whether the secularism of the current order would prevail, allowing them to continue to play an active role in their society. They understood the arguments our American contingent had been making about "Jeffersonian" democracy, but they were more concerned with the threat to their freedoms posed by intolerant fundamentalism.
I wonder where those young students and women are today (they are not so young anymore). Their successor generation did engage in the streets and were met with a "strong hand". What is clear is that the "strong hand" was not the engagement that was needed, nor did it hold back the dreams and demands of the young. What is not clear is the outcome. Where it goes from here remains uncertain. Will the change be progressive and open to full participation, and will women benefit from this revolt? Answers to these and more questions will be coming in the months ahead when we see how this revolution plays out. But right now, we have every reason to be inspired and to hope for the best for all Tunisians.
Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010) and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American community.
Haim Malka: What's Next for Tunisia?
The Tunisians' political maturity, high level of education and the dignity with which they came to terms with dictatorship should enable them to achieve democracy without fundamentalist interference.
If, in the next few years, Arabs see that, unlike what happened the last time a population in the region overthrew a unresponsive regime put in place and maintained by the same people who kept both these individuals in power, the people of Tunisia do not face attacks (military and economic) by the forces that have kept them in effectively third world conditions for generations, it actually is likely that there will be a wave of such overthrows (and a likely futile attempt by the unresponsive regimes to 'reform' in an attempt to survive).
So far, though the US has failed to match its actions to its rhetoric, it also seems likely that it will not engage in the sort of temper tantrums it exhibited (and exhibits) when that other overthrow happened, although given the success that pandering to and promoting Islamophobia amongst Americans has been for the Republicans, and the likely final outcome of the overthrow in the next year or so (a government that can be portrayed as being 'fundamentalistically Islamic') that is a distinct possibility despite the damage that such actions will have on the already battered US reputation.
That means that, at least for the non-strategically important (from the US point of view) countries, when the average inhabitant asks themselves the question 'are we better off with or without this regime?' the answer of 'without' will look extremely convincing, so, though it may take a couple of years (as the people of the region wait to see how things play out, we could see the collapse of US supported regimes in the same sort of wave that took down the USSR supported ones (which actually did have a fair bit of diversity, and were shaped by local history, despite the cookie cutter picture of them in American minds)
Iran overthrew the Shah and ended up in a sad situation
Based on the reaction of Algerians and Moroccans in public discussion forums one can see a division of opinion, with some Algerians and Moroccans still in denial arguing that the situation in their countries is very different and so much better from how it is in Tunisia, when in fact it's worse. So they are probably a couple of years before they get to the same point where Tunisia is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4uvN0tTlvo
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Algerian Islamist Civil War
Insurrection against Ghaddafi
Frequent Riots in Egypt
Insurgency in Yemen
We are watching, with you, the unfolding of historical change. Our knowledge is less than yours, of course, but our sympathy with the people who have endured 23 years of injustices is informed by our recent endurance of 8 years under Bush. We survived mainly because we knew that his reign had a foreseeable end. Just imagining how it would have turned out without that comfort boggles the mind. It is always the youth who sound the alarm. As you said, "They are our future".
Just to remind you that he was elected by the people of this country, like him or not.... The president is not a movie actor that you suppose to like... As a representative republic we need though to respect his Office regardless of our affilition or political view.
Just think about it. A blog that contains no references to any other problems in the Arab world. To the suicides. To the future. To events today. This is propaganda. It is smothering the story.
BTW, in case you've missed it, there is a definite dissatisfaction with the government of Egypt amongst Egyptians, due to a lack of progress on economic and social issues despite the Egyptian government being so compliant with the US and Israel. Your theory that the Palestinians would fare any better under the same sort of government is flawed.
followed immediately by directly contradicting:
"True, they had embraced a religious ideology that was neither progressive nor open to the changing global culture"
This is indeed what the world fears for Tunisia's "alternative view of the country's political scene."
There are plenty of threads on that subject.
Let's stick to Tunisia, shall we.