The Politics of War: Treating Russia Like China, and McCain's Petulance

Over the weekend, Georgia rather than Iraq seemed set to become the dominant foreign policy issue of the 2008 election. The McCain camp sounded as if they were hoping so. On the surface, they had a point. McCain's proposal to eject Russia from the Group of 8 (G-8) looked wild and reckless six months ago. Today, it looks a lot more sensible. But a closer analysis of recent events yields a very different conclusion.

If Russia had continued its military assault all the way to Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, and overthrown the democratically elected government, as many feared a couple of days ago, this crisis would indeed have overshadowed almost everything else on the foreign policy agenda. A great power invading and occupying a neighbor over the objections of the rest of the civilized world would have been both an outrage and a world-historical event.

Instead, despite the protestations of right-wing commentators here at home, this crisis is likely to simmer down and before too long it will be just another item on the international agenda. All of this assumes that the French-led effort to establish a cease-fire holds and diplomacy starts to focus on the location of Russian and Georgian forces and possibly a new peacekeeping force established on the disputed territory of South Ossetia.

But there are still important questions that remain to be debated. Did the Bush administration mislead the Georgian government into thinking support for membership in NATO meant military support in a crisis? What should U.S. policy be toward Russia? And will John McCain be able to score political points out of this tragedy?

Complete answers to these questions may take months. But some conclusions can already be drawn. First and foremost, Georgia has become yet another example of stunning incompetence by the Bush administration. Let's remember it was Chancellor Merkel of Germany who became the power broker when leaders at the NATO summit debated the subject of Georgia this spring. The United States, which has traditionally led NATO on such subjects, failed to push through a so-called Membership Action Plan for Georgia. That failure, as much as anything, gave Moscow a crucial signal that the West could not muster a serious response should it crack down on its troublesome neighbor. And while we don't know exactly what was said by Washington to Georgia's President Saakashvilli, clearly he was not deterred from acting.

Whoever was responsible for the initial provocation, we can also conclude that Russia should pay a heavy price for its actions. The Russian government desperately wants the West to treat it as an important and respected great power. We can and should withhold that treatment. No diplomatic business as usual. And above all, we should reject as not worthy of consideration Russia's proposal last month for a new European security architecture.

In general, treat Russia like China, an important power whose policies and practices merit regular criticism. That doesn't mean cutting off relations. It just means realpolitick. Certainly, there should no more cozy Bush-Putin-soulmate treatment handed out by the next President. Some worry that a tougher policy would jeopardize cooperation from Russia on key issues like Iran's nuclear aspirations. But the truth is Russia is joining the international community in putting sanctions on Iran not as a favor to the United States. It doesn't want to see an Iranian nuclear bomb any more than we do.

As for the politics here at home, McCain may say his policy shows prescience. But what it really shows is petulance. John McCain, despite all his claims of unique experience, is just the wrong man to lead American foreign policy in the twenty-first century. Kicking Russia out of the G-8 a year ago wouldn't have made things better. It would have just caused a bigger split with our European allies. The same goes for his argument that we should have demanded that NATO give greater support for Georgia. We learned in recent weeks that when Europe and America are united, Russian opposition is neutered. On missile defense, NATO has come together and Russia's complaints have quieted. It was the split in NATO over Georgia, a split that a McCain approach would have widened, that gave Russia reason to believe the West would acquiesce in its military aggression.

Which brings us back to the politics of war. In the run-up to the Iraq debacle, John McCain was as outrageous as Donald Rumsfeld in denouncing our European allies for not supporting an early invasion. He has not been a consensus-builder in NATO. He has been a fiery defender of the neo-conservative line.

The next President must be someone who can remain calm in a crisis, not jump to conclusions, and build a consensus with our friends and allies. That is how America's interests will be best defended and promoted in the twenty-first century. McCain's record of discord with our European allies and his shoot from the hip approach on Russia demonstrate that if the phone rings at three a.m. he'll be giving the wrong answers.


James P. Rubin is now an adjunct Professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. He was Assistant Secretary of State and Chief Spokesman of the State Department during the Clinton Administration.

Comments

[iratior]

My knees do not jerk in agreement with everything the Bush administration says. Nor do my knees jerk in sympathy with the government of Georgia (the country, not the state), even if it is "democratically elected". No matter whether democratically elected or not, a country has an obligation to respect human rights. If the Georgian government sought to harm the people of Ossetia, just because of pro-Russian secessionist sentiment there, then that was wrong, and the Russian response is understandable. I think the administration's decision to have the U.S. military deliver of so-called "humanitarian" aid to Georgia is just an attempt to provoke a crisis: they are hoping the Russians will shoot at Americans by accident. Look at all the false statements made by the administration about Iraq. You expect me still to believe everything they get over about Georgia?

[EZPete]

You know when I first started following this story, most of the people blogging here were saying 'Georgia attacked Russia and they have a right to defend themselves­.' Now that Russia has continued the fight into Akhbazia and Gori the sentiment is 'Well, Georgia picked a fight, now they have to pay'. Now that Human Rights Watch is claiming Russia fabricated a great portion of the information coming out of S. Ossetia, what is the line going to be now? Russia has been provoking this situation for quite some time now - they expected it. How do you think Russia was able to deliver so much armor into Georgia in such a short time?

[exhale09]

Where was US Intelligence as George Bush and "Vlad" sat next to each other as "Russia invaded Georgia" ?! How surreal.

[Passenger57]

Does that have anything to do with the proximity of Georgia to Russia? It might.....

[JulieSA]

Obama is saying the same things about Russia and Georgia that Bush and McCain are. So are all the other EU nations and human rights groups. You're in a tiny minority.

[Sprinkle]

Minority in what sense.

The fact that the majority of western LEADERS blame Russia does not mean that their populations necessarily agree with them.

And several rights groups have leveled blame at both Russia and Georgia.

e.g http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/news/georgia-and-russia-must-protect-civilians-south-ossetia-2008081

[NotesFromME]

You are obviously not reading the European press, which tends to cover things in a much more detailed manner than our pathetic MSM. Overall the coverage is pretty even-hande­d--Georgia was wrong for picking a fight that they could not win with Russia; Russia over-reacted by invading Georgia proper but should withdraw back into the seperatist enclaves. Most analysis focuses on the assumption that Shaakashvili's government should not survive for long.

[Archie1955]

While several of your suggestions bear merit they don't take into account the parameters the Europeans are working within, for instance the energy source for a great deal of Europe is Russia and any activity on Euope's part that would risk that source would be foolhardy in the extreme. Any criticism of Russia for stepping in and chasizing the Georgians is totally foolish. The Russians were goaded by the Georgians as a proxy for the Americans who cannot seem to keep their hands off any part of the world even when it is outside their normal sphere of influence. Sure the Russians dealt a deadly blow to Georgia but that's what you get for going into a self governing area and killing Russian citizens. Never start something you can't finish. Also the last time I looked it seemed that the U.S. far from being the only so called only super power is now running hard just to keep up with both Russia and China in that respect and it doesn't help that both countries could destroy the U.S. financially anytime they wish, so no, it will not be business as usual. I think the U.S. will be hard put to accomplish anything that Russia or China don't want it to accomplish. So much for your antiquated belief that the U.S. will continue to call the shots in the 21st century. You'd better return to school preferably outside the U.S. where they teach reality.

[JulieSA]

"Any criticism of Russia for stepping in and chasizing the Georgians is totally foolish."

Obama is criticizing the Russians, and so is every other civilized entity.

[WritusMaximus]

Yeah, Russia was threatened from the get go---them nasty American administra­tions--dem­s and repubs alike-- had a hand in the collapse of the Soviet Empire and helped encircle it with pro-West governments. How dare America treat the then Soviet and now Russian Bear so terribly and for so long! No better solution to repel America's evil machinations than for Russia to annex all pro-West former Soviet satellites! Georgia, Russia has permanently vetoed your entry into NATO and will make you part of Greater Russia. America, get out of Russia's backyard, now!

[WritusMaximus]

Quite true. The penalty for Georgia is to cease to exist as an independent country at the hands of Russia and Russia is accomplishing just that as we opine. Ukraine, if I were you I'd be very nervous. After all, wasn't Georgia a good friend of the U.S. of A.? Such a friendship did not put a stop to Russia's plans, don't you know!

[polaris12]

"A great power invading and occupying a neighbor over the objections of the rest of the civilized world would have been both an outrage and a world-historical event." No kidding? People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

[politigal]

As these last 7.5 years of Bush have rolled on - I see where his comments about he and Putin being "Soulmates" were pretty much right on- unfortunately this has not been a good thing for our Country .

[exhale09]

Well as these two soulmates were sitting next to each other smiling and enjoying the Olympics, Russia was invading Georgia. Doesn't that strike you a SURREAL? Seriously.

[rwe2late]

Mr. Rubin,
A key point that you and others miss, is that self-governing "autonomous" regions are de facto independent countries. The legal fiction of withholding diplomatic recognition has been the international community's long-standing practice to discourage Balkanization, yet discourage ill-treatment of minority groups.

Georgia had no more "right" to launch a sneak attack on South Ossetia, killing Russian soldiers, than China has to lauch a sneak attack on Taiwan, killing US soldiers.

Georgia's attack was what precipated warfare. The Georgian military has been lavished with weapons and training by the US and Israel, far exceeding any reasonable need for "security".
Hours after the initial Georgian attack, Russia appealed to the UN Security Council to support a halt to the fighting, but the US rejected it supposedly because Saakashvili did not want to "renounce" the use of force. What a travesty to claim the Russians are to blame!

If indeed, you are not in favor of reviving the cold war, and all that implies in terms of wasteful militarism and further loss of liberty, then you should reconsider your position.

[chinationreport]

Agree!! Russia is craving attention.
The problem is that it might take a leader with quite some brain power , judgment to understand the dynamics of today's world.
The world is no more black and white, allies and enemies... US is still the leader in the world but its dominance has been on the decline. EU, Russia, China all want to have some say on international matters. EU have no real common binding other than EUROs. Russia and China are different, both are strong nationalistic countries with a strong will to lead in their own way.
It's time for the US to focus and strengthen from within while reaching out with leveraged and balanced decisions, without acting as a solo bull and pushing its agenda on everyone. The world does not need one police any more.
The world political powers have gradually formed a market.whi­ch needs to be let run with little intervention with some help of 'regulations' defined by the great powers.

From:
http://www.chinationreport.com/

[joanndarc]

"Russia and China are different, both are strong nationalistic countries"
The statement is not factually based. They both do have geopolitical aspirations, but Russia has be a multicultural and multinational country throughout it's history.

[hbhawaii]

Remember what GHW Bush did to the Southern Shiites after the first Gulf War?-- that's right, he encouraged them to stand up against Saddam, and when they did, gave them no support at all. They were massacred. Now Junior's playing the same craven game.

The Georgian government really isn't that peachy -- their recent re-election was pretty suspect, as I recall. Just a nice little Neocon puppet government in cahoots with McCain, Bush and the others.

[Passenger57]

The real reason the US even cares about Georgia? O-I-L.

[larry278]

We still aren't out of the Russia vs Georgia mess. Thanks to W & the neo-cons the great bulk of US forces are stuck occupying Iraq & Afghanistan & involved in 2 civil wars. Our premptive strike of Iraq might have encouraged Putin's strike on Georgia. The USA is in no position to send US forces to aid Georgia or to criticize Mr Putin & Russia for hitting & destroying much of Georgia since the USA did the same thing to Iraq. The USA despite W's rhetoric hasn't rebuilt Iraq's infrastructure. W & the neo-con's can only go into a snit about Russia's move into Georgia. The USA's pots are in the position of calling the Russian kettle black. Hypocracry(sp), snarling like a muzzled poodle & other impotent gestures are all the USA has in its bag of tricks. Putin & Russia have played the USA as sniveling fools.

[lyingtruth]

McCain acts like he ready to fire the missles that will start a nuclear war.

Fact is: Presidents Mikheil Saakashvili and George Bush are both fools! Saakashvili started this conflict and miscalculated the result just as Bush did in Iraq.

But unlike Saddam Hussein, Vladimir Putin does have WMD's. Putin was laying in wait for this idiot (Saakashvili ) to lose his country.

[Steamboater]

Your perception Rubin of Russia desiring respect is confused with the reality of Russia desirng the world to be in fear of her. Russians yearn for the old days when that was an actuality. We shouldn't make the mistake of believing that Russia wants respect, although what kind of respect does Russia deserve when she has a government it's people tolerate that denies them a free press, that has been involved in the murders of one journalist after another and sees brute force within its own nation as the rule of law?

[NABNYC]

"Russia should pay a heavy price for its actions"??? The odd thing is that people can comment on this situation and completely ignore the fact that the biggest aggressor nation in the world is the U.S. Russia "invaded" Georgia -- who cares? Are we talking Atlanta here? No, we're talking about essentially a part of Russia that recently split off. Let them work it out. Stay out of other people's business.

We get nothing, nada, not the tiniest bit of hysteria about all the people in Darfur being murdered, made homeless. Why not? Because they're black, and the people in Georgia are white? What about Israel invading the West Bank again and again, forcing the Palestinians off of their land, committing war crimes. Not much there either.

So what's all the excitement about some tiny little nobody--ev­en-knows-w­here-it-is hole in the wall in or near Russia? Oil. This is another oil-related issue. And maybe George asked his soulmate Vlad to stage a little war to stir up the U.S. population and get war-man McCain into the white house. Everybody calm down and stay out of Georgia.

[r11]

Can we please have a different, fresh look at the situation in S. Osetia ? One that takes into account the history of conflict and , for a change, tells the truth about what's happened there !

Now, Mr.Rubin contradicts himself and his story right in his own story title ! If Russia's so desperate for West's love and respect, why did it then attack (as Western MSMs claim) Georgia - on opening day of Olympics no less and Putin (again, according to the MSM, the true ruler of Russia) so far away from Moscow ?

The truth is: the dozens of Russian soldiers and hundreds of Russian citizens were killed by Georgia's unprovoked, genocidal strike . If not for Russian peacekeeping batallion, Georgia would've cleansed all of osetins in Tschinval - as in _slaughtered_ them. That's why Saakashvili struck on the opening day of Olympics, hoping world attention will be on something different.

[EZPete]

...dozens of Russian soldiers and hundreds of Russian citizens were killed...
I'm actually giving you points for this one as you use the revised hundreds instead of thousands reported by Russian media. Human Rights Watch has even declared that Russia has overstated the claims. Of course, primacy of print rules. Russia reported it so it must be true. As for the Russian citizens portion, the only Russian citizens killed were the supposed Russian peacekeepers. Just because Russia distributed passports to approximately 70% of the population does not make them citizens. By that logic, if the State Dept. were to open up a passport office in gitmo and we started distributing passports to as many Cubans as wanted, any government reprisals against passport holding citizens of the U.S. would be considered an act a pretext for war.

...Georgia would've cleansed all of osetins in Tschinval - as in _slaughtered_ them...
You are making sweeping assumptions here. Fact is, we don't know what the final provocation was for Georgia to start the armed portion of the conflict. I'll admit, Saakashvili made a huge judgement in error but he's known to be brash.

There are myriad considerations pertaining to to this conflict that have to be examined but we'll start here for now.

[EZPete]

There are so many contradictions and mistatements and naivete in your argument I hardly know where to begin!

One that takes into account the history...
Apparently history, for you, only goes back as far as 8 Aug. I would challenge you to at least attempt to find out why there is animosity between Georgia and Russia

...why did it then attack (as Western MSMs claim) Georgia...
I haven't read a single reputable news account that claims Russia initiated the thearmed portion of the conflict.

...no less and Putin (again, according to the MSM, the true ruler of Russia)...
If you fail to realize Medvedev is anything but a figurehead you are truly, dare I say, naive.

The truth is:...
You apparantly don't have near enough information pertaining to this subject to make a declaration to assume you even understand what could or could not be truth.

[shanedr]

OK, lets talk history! South Ossetia has been separate from Georgia for over ten years. The South Ossetians want to be merged with North Ossetia and allied with Russia.

Are you saying that people should be part of a country they not only don't want to be but do not feel they have been a part of. While it is true South Ossetia was once part of Georgia, that changed with the Soviet Union. Unless you want to go back and re-fight the Cold War and maybe warm it up a little then you will have to permit people to choose how they want to live; not how others wish them to live.

[BARRISTER]

Didn't "..a great power.." invade Iraq and overthrow its Government?? So, why can't Russia do the same??