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Jane White

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Once Again, Academics Get an F When It Comes to Retirement Math

Posted: 04/19/2012 11:23 am

As an advocate for 401(k) participants, the only thing more frustrating for me than not being able to get Capitol Hill to make the plans walk and talk like pensions is tackling "innumeracy" on the part of academics who portray themselves as experts, but apparently never consulted pension actuaries about how the plans actually work.

In a study recently cited on MSNBC, Alicia Munnell of Boston College's Center for Retirement Research contends that 51 percent of Americans are on track for retirement, which is ridiculously optimistic given that only 17 percent of the population is covered by a regular pension and half of Americans aren't even covered by a less-generous 401(k) plan. This relatively optimistic conclusion also contradicts Munnell's 2011 findings that the median household in their early 60s has only saved one quarter of what they need. Who are these 51 percent of Americans who are on track if the majority of aging Boomers aren't on track, given that Gen X and Y are even worse off?

What's more, Munnell blames the inadequacy on workers poor investment decisions, and not the measly employer contribution rate of 3 percent of pay to 401(k) accounts compared to 8 percent for pensions, which is why most Americans don't have at least 10 times their salary in their current and rollover accounts at retirement. Her solution? "If people work until age 70, I think the vast majority of people would be perfectly fine." A mere five more years in the workforce If they've only saved one quarter of what they need?

Then there's Theresa Ghilarducci of the New School, who thinks that the tax breaks in 401(k) plans go to the highest earners -- except that nobody under age 50 is allowed to contribute more than $17,000 a year because of "contribution limits." In the past she proposed replacing the 3 percent-of-pay matching contribution to 401(k) accounts with a one-size-fits all puny $600 annual government contribution, which would reduce retirement wealth for everybody. Her current solution? Every American should have a public sector pension because they "use the best professional managers that aren't available for retail accounts and have the bargaining power to lower fees."

If public pensions are run professionally and cost-effectively, what's behind recent calls for stricter regulation of them, not to mention litigation against the people who run them? In 2009 the SEC voted to propose curbing "pay to play" practices by barring investment firms from providing management services for two years if they contribute to politicians who have clout in awarding contracts to managers of public pension plans. In 2010 former New York State Comptroller Alan Hevesi pleaded guilty to a felony corruption charge for accepting more than $1 million in exchange for allowing his benefactor to earn more than $18 million in fees for investing $250 million of the state's pension funds. Then there's the New York unions who filed a class action suit in 2009 against an investment manager who invested their pension money with Bernie Madoff Investment Securities LLC, according to the Albany Times Union. And while not every public pension has invested in Madoff-style Ponzi schemes, too many have bet recklessly on risky stuff like commodity futures, junk bonds and hedge.

Finally, there's Boston University's Laurence Kotlikoff who not only told Fortune magazine in 2007 that Americans are saving TOO much for retirement but markets software that advises people to save less along with co-authoring a book advising future retirees to Spend 'Til the End. When contacted, Kotlikoff insisted he only thinks 20 percent of the population is saving too much, although I'd love to know who these people are.

Ironically, these three academics are among the few Americans who can afford to retire because their employers contribute at least twice as much to their version of a 401(k) account called a 403(b). As I pointed out in a previous post, Boston College contributes the equivalent of 8 percent of pay for those with fewer than 9 years of service and 10 percent for those with more and the New School contributes 7 percent for those with fewer than six years and 10 percent for those with more. Boston University's plan is even more generous--contributing 5% of an employee's base salary up to an "integration level" -- currently $35,200 -- plus 10 percent of the base salary above it. The contribution rate increases at age 45 and again at age 50: to 9 percent up to the integration level and 14 percent above it (up to a certain ceiling set by the IRS).

So once again I'm calling on all of you intellectually superior non-academics to weigh in on what's the best fix for our underfunded plans. My proposal is to boost employer contributions -- in fact, triple them for Fortune 100 companies who can afford multimillion dollar executive pay packages -- make "ownership" of employer contributions immediate, and allow workers to choose a "mutual fund for life" so you don't have to keep picking a new fund every time you change jobs.

Here's more info at my website: www.retirement-solutions.us/401k-nightmare.htm. Got more suggestions? Please post your comments and I'll gladly incorporate good ideas into my plan, which I will forward to the appropriate Congressional committee in the hope they'll finally get off their butts.

 
 
 
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As an advocate for 401(k) participants, the only thing more frustrating for me than not being able to get Capitol Hill to make the plans walk and talk like pensions is tackling "innumeracy" on the par...
As an advocate for 401(k) participants, the only thing more frustrating for me than not being able to get Capitol Hill to make the plans walk and talk like pensions is tackling "innumeracy" on the par...
 
 
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02:54 PM on 05/03/2012
DC plans simply aren't going to work for the average person. Ain't gonna happen. If you're going to require businesses to contribute a percentage similar to what is needed for a decent DB plan, and not allow participants access to the money until retirement, you might as well have a DB plan. Except, with a DB plan, many in the financial services industry would have their grubby hands removed from your wallets which, of course, they would fight like h___. We need pensions, plain and simple, sponsored by not-for-profit concerns or government. Nothing else is nearly as good in trying to provide a decent level of financial support for retirement. In the meantime, bank and invest with the not-for-profit segement of the financial services industry, which means a credit union for banking and Vanguard or TIAA-CREF for investing. And what about the for-proft guys? You know, the ones who talk about small government until they need a bailout. When they come around trying to sell their snake oil, tell them exactly where to go.
10:54 AM on 04/20/2012
You had me going until the ending part. You probably know the academics have 403(b) plans, not 401(b) plans, but it kind of ruined your credibility with the people who deal with this stuff.
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Jane White
03:36 PM on 04/20/2012
I had meant to write 403(b)--that was a typo! Sorry and thanks for the input.
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dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
10:18 PM on 04/19/2012
They do not want the Public to know that when the Interest Rates are over 6 % the Social Security Trust Fund makes money and can last forever . But where is the Profit in that for Wall Street and the so called Professionals, whose numbers have tripled in the last few years from Business Schools.
09:20 AM on 04/20/2012
There really is a Social Security trust Fund and it sits in the bottom drawer of a government file cabinet in Parkersburg, WV. The entire fund is invested only in US government bonds, which cannot be sold on the open market. You don't have a separate claim on any of the bonds and neither do I, nor does anyone else. So far, I have received my monthly SS checks on time and in full. But if the country goes the way of Greece, who knows what will happen? I may still get my monthly checks, but if bread costs $25 a loaf, the checks won't go very far. In Germany, in 1923, conditions were far worse and 10 years after that, a dictatorship took over.

Many low and moderate income people thought all of their problems would solved if they voted for politicians who opposed gay marriage, but their financial problems are worse than ever. Some of the well to do are doing better than ever, thanks to the Bush tax cuts. The proposed Federal Marriage Amendment was a distraction from the real needs of average people but it proved to be a good vote getter in the 2004 elections. The people made a mistake in 2000 and then in 2004 and now they are paying the price. The butcher's bill has come due.
05:43 PM on 04/19/2012
I remember receiving an employer contribution to my 401K plan of as much as 13% of my base pay in the good old days. I retired with a good 401 K balance and now it is more like a 601K as opposed to a 201K. Unfortunately for younger employees, the company slashed retirement contributions during the Great Recession and never restored the cuts.

Increased employer contributions would be nice but they will come at the expense of lower salaries and/or reduced health benefits. Employees need to become more knowledgeable about their plans including fees and expenses charged by the plan and complain if the fees are much higher than Vanguard's. Most of my former colleagues didn't have a clue as to what they were being charged. They also need to kick in more of their own money, or be prepared to struggle financially when they get older.

In an era when more politicians are worried about stopping gay marriage than about Mr. and Mrs. Middle America's retirement prospects, I am not optimistic for the country's future. Some retirees will be able to afford to pay $300+ for an NFL game in Santa Clara, CA's proposed new football stadium, after paying an $85,000 license fee just for the right to buy season's tickets. But a lot more will struggle to put food on the table and pay basic bills. Only in America.
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JC Boomer
The handwriting on the wall may be a forgery
03:42 PM on 04/19/2012
I think this is closer to the reality of where most people are in terms of what they have in retirement assets.

http://www.retirement-usa.org/facts
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Jane White
04:59 PM on 04/19/2012
Decent info, JC!--I hadn't seen these stats before!
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JC Boomer
The handwriting on the wall may be a forgery
09:24 PM on 04/19/2012
Also check the March 2012 Consumer Reports Center survey for additional statistics for people 55-75. Their statistics are more current.
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12:08 PM on 04/19/2012
and once again, new retirees and pending retirees get an "F" for buying that 45K Lexus for status instead of a 17K Corolla....