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Janet Tavakoli

Janet Tavakoli

Posted: August 9, 2010 03:12 PM

JPMorgan Chase's fixed-income revenue fell almost 28% to $3.6 billion in the second quarter, down from $5.5 billion in the first quarter, and down from $4.9 billion for the same period last year. JPMorgan blamed an interest rate squeeze and bad results in the credit markets and the commodities markets.

There were no details of its significant loss from unwise, gigantic, wrong-way wartime coal bets. The bank took a short position so enormous that it was oversized relative to the global coal market, and second quarter losses reportedly were in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Financial Reform Failure

Blythe Masters, managing director in charge of JPMorgan's global commodities group, spent time lobbying in Washington to dilute financial reform. By her own admission, JPMorgan's recent speculation in coal wasn't client driven; the risk was taken on JPMorgan's behalf. The Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Bill does nothing to prevent a repeat -- or even a potentially worse -- debacle.

The commodities division isn't the only area in which JPMorgan is vulnerable. Credit derivatives, interest rate derivatives, and currency trading are vulnerable to leveraged hidden bets. Ambitious managers strive to pump speculative earnings from zero to hero.

Instead of transparent and regulated markets, we have dark markets, hidden leverage, proprietary speculative trading, lax regulation and oversized risks.

"Scared Sh*tless" 1

Blythe Masters told her remaining employees that competitors are "scared sh*tless" of JPMorgan's commodities division. She claimed the layoffs of 10% of front office staff are not a sign of JPMorgan "panicking" and called the risk taking in coal trading that left JPMorgan wide-open to a massive short squeeze a "rookie error."

For individual traders, JPMorgan doesn't follow the Wall Street maxim: He who sells what isn't his'n, must buy it back or go to pris'n. The U.S. can count on JPMorgan to continue both long and short market manipulation and take its winnings and losses from blind gambles. Shareholders, taxpayers, and consumers will foot the bill for any unpleasant global consequences.

Physical oil traders from JPMorgan's brand new RBS Sempra Commodities LLP acquisition (JPMorgan paid $1.7 billion) left of their own accord to join smaller firms with less capital. Masters said these were "very interesting career decisions."

The defections were all the more interesting, because Masters began her career as a JPMorgan commodities trader. RBS Sempra's oil traders gave Masters a vote of no confidence. Their flight was a loss of "key people," whom she said she needs to replace.
Masters is poised for more debacles:

"All it's going to take is a little pop to the upside. We could be producing a 30 to 35 percent ROE and looking like gods."


Good luck with that. Masters also noted that this potential windfall might come at the expense of others:

"We've got too many banks chasing too little volume and margins have compressed."


The United States is trying to pull out of the greatest financial tailspin in its history. Dice-rolling braggadacio by a key officer at one of the nation's largest banks is exactly the kind of thing Congress, taxpayers, and voters should find scary. Arianna Huffington explains the consequences for middle class Americans, who pay a disproportionate share of the bill in her upcoming book, Third World America. 2

Ramp up Risk and Cross Your Fingers

Big unanticipated market moves always result in big winners and big losers among big gamblers. After the fact, most winners claim they were smart--not just lucky.

When bank managers take a big gamble and lose hundreds of millions of dollars, they don't call it reckless; they spin it as an error of "judgment." The directive is to "put on risk" and "generate results." This may be why Masters cautioned employees:

"I don't want us talking to the outside world, neither about successes nor about failures."


JPMorgan is making big bets and crossing its fingers in a dangerous and volatile market.
Masters takes "pleasure" in the "ballsiest" business, and she wants her traders to get lucky. Moreover, she's engaged in internal spin control and plans a "deep dive" with the Board and the CFO. This may reduce her chances of walking Wall Street.

No one should be concerned for the job security of managers like Masters at JPMorgan, and that is precisely the problem. Delusional risk-taking and lack of transparency at Too-Big-To-Fail banks -- especially in the areas most vulnerable to rampant speculation -- were ignored by so-called financial reform.

1 All words in this article in quotation marks are from Business Week's (Bloomberg News) major scoop after the leak of a tape of an internal JPMorgan July 22 conference call: "Blythe Masters Says 'Don't Panic' as Commodities Slip," by Dawn Kopecki, August 3, 2010.

2 Based on my reading of an advance copy of Arianna Huffington's new book: Third World America: How Our Politicians Are Abandoning the Middle Class and Betraying the American Dream, Crown Books, September 2010.


 
 
 
 
 
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06:45 PM on 08/10/2010
Given that the big investment banks have gamed the system to such an extent that the breadth, magnitude, and duration of their bets are irrelevant to their risk exposure, the only thing affecting their profits is the ability to churn business, which requires a large flock of sheep for the fleecing. But because it has become apparent the markets are about as honest as the roulette wheel at Rick's Cafe Americain, many investors have concluded that the only way to win is not to play ("War Games", anyone?) and are staying out of the shearing shed. Not enough players, not enough trade, not enough flow. The sharks don't have big enough schools of fish to swim through.
05:28 PM on 08/10/2010
from the link: "The London team has also since devised a way to provide “synthetic storage” "

i found this hilarious.
12:00 PM on 08/10/2010
Thanks Janet. Great stuff as usual.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jwilson1
10:29 AM on 08/10/2010
I have been looking for money for two start ups that have great potential and already have after two months great sales. The problem is no bank will touch them but they will bet on risky ventures. This is the problem with the whole system!
09:47 AM on 08/10/2010
we need more educated people pointing this stuff out to public, so that the fear mongers dont take the floor for good.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
07:58 AM on 08/10/2010
Gambling. Our banks are hooked on gambling, their traders hooked on the high of the big bet and the big bonuses. It's time to stop the casino. Banks should be about slow growth and safe investments people can rely on for their retirements.
06:49 AM on 08/10/2010
JANET, COGRATULATIONS ON YOUR ARTICAL ABOUT JPM CHASE. THEY (JPM) HOLD THE LARGEST OBSCENE SHORT IN HISTORY IN THE SILVER MARKET. THEIR WILL BE MANY MORE LOSSES TO COME. THANK YOU
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06:45 AM on 08/10/2010
Doesn't anyone have any problem with "a bank" ... gambling?

Me, too.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ClarcKing
Citizen
11:24 PM on 08/09/2010
True crime from the Financier sector, the Fed and cabinet members can not go on unanswered forever. The phony authority, phony superiority, the phony money power, must be confronted. The United States must stabilize itself; recover the bailout trillions, expropriate JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and BP. Reinstate Glass-Steagall in US banking.

The United States must go to work again creating the necessary facilities that enhance our standard of living. Time is wasting. There will be a time when no one or nothing will be able to reverse the collapsing operation of the population's physical economy. Time is of the essence.

Crisis economy formation measures must be implemented now, or this great nation is doomed.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:44 PM on 08/09/2010
"JPMorgan Chase's fixed-income revenue fell almost 28% to $3.6 billion in the second quarter, down from $5.5 billion in the first quarter, and down from $4.9 billion for the same period last year."

THIS IS GREAT, and almost shows capitalism works.
JP Morgan is losing money, so their rich shareholders are too.
Just like BP shareholders did when that stock went down.

This is cause for mild celebration. At least the rich make less money when they f up.

And remember, a lot of rich and powerful lose money, and they aren't happy. They don't get rich being happy when losing money, and they don't think "oh well I'll still be plenty rich, the system will go on" like we do. They are mad, and they get even.

Right now amounts to selling their shares, but in time shareholders may revolt.
For example, HP's Hurd payout: I worked for HP, I'll bet employees and shareholders are p'd.
(And BTW they hate Fiorina :-)
08:24 PM on 08/09/2010
Heads I win, tail you lose. That is simply the mentality of the too big to fail.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:47 PM on 08/09/2010
Excuse me? They and their rich shareholders profit just went way down. You think this is bad news? This is GREAT! Eventually they'll be losing money, and they'll be out of business.

HuffPost was all about "shrinking the big banks". This is it happening.
Shrinking profits is shrinking banks.
Less profits mean less chance of "too big to fail".
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10:41 PM on 08/09/2010
Read the article again. My take was Tavakoli is talking about JPM failing spectacularly and taking the entire Ponzi Scam of an economy with it because they're too big to fail and too big to save.
11:19 AM on 08/10/2010
The shareholders are far from happy at the huge bonuses the guys at the top are paying themselselves. They are disproportionately high compared to the dividends that are paid. The point I was making is simply that if the Too Big to Fail make large profits, they win. If they get burnt on their bets, then the government/the Fed/youthetaxpayer have to reimburse these guys. Hence, tails you lose.
KIampfbeobachter
Misanthropic economic and political shaman
07:23 PM on 08/09/2010
Janet! Are you long coal???
KIampfbeobachter
Misanthropic economic and political shaman
07:21 PM on 08/09/2010
OK than, JPMorgan is on the fly catcher. Commodities trading is basically a zero sum game. If JPM is sort someone else must be long and in a rising market winning. Who is it?
07:31 PM on 08/09/2010
Probably Goldman.
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NoNameNoLastName
Treehugger bleeding heart liberal
06:57 PM on 08/09/2010
It looks like the Goldman disease is highly contagious...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
station agent
05:47 PM on 08/09/2010
Thanx Ms. Tavakoli for your insightful essays!