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Janet Tavakoli

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Why Some Housing Prices Are Still Falling and Subprime Loans Are Still Sliding

Posted: 06/27/11 10:42 AM ET

In October 2007, CNBC's Diana Olick called me about Countrywide's so-called plan to modify mortgage loans scheduled to reset to higher rates. Subprime borrowers with a strong payment history would be able to refinance and possibly get prime FHA loans. Current paying borrowers with credit issues would be offered Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loans under a new expanded program.

Mortgage Loans with Less than Zero Value

Mortgage modification programs, including HAMP, were abysmal failures. At the time I told Olick that mortgage servicers were selling loans for 3-6 cents on the dollar and they were happy to dump them:

"They work 13-hour days trying to salvage what they can, doing anything to avoid reporting a delinquency or foreclosure. They disclosed disturbing information unavailable even on trustee reports. The servicer asserted the rating agencies are incorrect in their optimism; recovery rates of 60% are unattainable. My average recovery rate assumption of 30% is also currently unattainable."

If loans couldn't be sold to a sucker, banks and their servicers walked away. Mortgage securitization complicated matters, and often homes are left vacant and not foreclosed upon. Looters strip vacant properties of pipes, fixtures, and anything of salvage value. The loans within the securitizations are worthless.

Why do banks and trustees pretend the loans have value? If banks and lenders foreclosed, it would be revealed that the cost to maintain the property before resale and the legal costs relative to the value of the property meant that they had negative equity.

At first this was a problem for loans with low loan balances, but as property values dropped, even loans with higher balances had the same problem. The problem spread, and it hasn't yet stopped spreading.

Triple Tragedy: Meltdown, Spreading Contagion, and Crime

This tragedy is echoed by similar problems in Ohio, Michigan and other subprime targets on the West Coast, Nevada, and in the South. Although some examples aren't as stark or depressing, the general idea of plummeting property values and vacant properties infecting a neighborhood and its surrounding areas still stands. Affected states have to carry the burden of these paralyzed limbs, and banks and their cronies that perpetrated this mess just walk away. This video, first reported by the Chicago Tribune is a stunning local example:


 

Since 2007, Chicago's Englewood and West Englewood areas slid into a sinkhole. Homes that once housed lower middle class and middle class families stand empty. Those with the means to move have fled. Those without the means have stayed while the prairie reclaims a large part of the south side of Chicago. More and more homes have been boarded up. Grass has grown so high in some formerly residential areas it obscures all but the tallest humans. Crime soared. Property values in surrounding neighborhoods are plummeting as the wasteland spreads to their doorsteps.

"Countrywide Broke the Law"

It would be easy to turn away from this and blame the borrowers. Some of the borrowers were absentee landlords who knew what they were doing. Some borrowers overreached. But in many cases, people were victimized by predatory lenders. For example, a complaint of alleged fraud against Goldman Sachs, includes allegations of fraudulent practices by Countrywide, now owned by Bank of America. A former Countrywide employee stated that approximately 90% of all "liars' loans, loans that allowed reduced documentation about borrowers' income and assets, sold out of a Chicago office had inflated incomes.

The borrowers weren't inflating the income. Countrywide routinely doubled the amount of the potential borrower's income to qualify borrowers for loans they couldn't afford so that Countrywide and its mortgage brokers could continue to earn fees and commissions. Prior to a settlement in which Countrywide paid a paltry $8 billion--the damage done is much greater-- to eleven states, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan stated: "Countrywide broke the law, homeowners did not."

Fed's August 2007 Back Door Bail Out of Countrywide

In August 2007, investors shunned Countrywide's asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) backed by its mortgage loans and demanded much higher interest rates. In the ensuing panic, Countrywide wanted to borrow around $11.5 billion from banks on its credit card-like revolving credit lines, but the banks balked. The banks asked the Fed for concessions, and the Fed agreed.

The Fed deal appeared to have been leaked. On Thursday, August 16, 2007, the Dow fell more than 340 points when it appeared Countrywide was about to go under, but rebounded to close down only 15 points. The next morning the Fed announced its new bank lending concessions.

The Fed bailed out Countrywide and its affiliated banks through its back door. The Fed agreed to let banks borrow against private label mortgage loans with phony "AAA" ratings, cut the banks' discount rate from 6.25%* to 5.75%, and extended "overnight" borrowings to 30 days.

BofA, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank, Deutsche Bank, and JPMorgan Cut and Run

Banks that supplied money -- and in some cases now own -- suspect mortgage lenders also packaged up and sold those loans to investors. They own or owned mortgage "servicers" that cannot recover foreclosure costs combined with the costs of maintaining and reselling the house. After pumping up appraisals and falsifying borrowers' income on applications, banks are walking away and sticking taxpayers with the bill.

According to the Woodstock Institute, the mortgage servicers and trustees linked to abandoned properties in Chicago are Bank of America, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank, Deutsche Bank, and JPMorgan Chase.

Despite evidence of widespread interconnected mortgage lending, securitization, and foreclosure wrong-doing and fraud, there are no meaningful felony indictments of senior executives at mortgage lenders or of senior executives of banks bailed out by taxpayers.

*Corrected typo from 6.75% to 6.25%. The events surrounding episode and other bailouts are covered in detail my book on the financial crisis and the resulting economic stagflation: Dear Mr. Buffett: What an Investor Learns 1,269 Miles from Wall Street.

 
 
 
 
 
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03:20 AM on 06/29/2011
Is this sentence correct?
"At first this was a problem for loans with low loan balances, but as property values dropped, even loans with higher balances had the same problem. The problem spread, and it hasn't yet stopped spreading."
10:12 AM on 06/28/2011
Supply and demand. Too many houses. Too few qualified buyers. Prices need to hit the bottom.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ClarcKing
Citizen
09:56 AM on 06/28/2011
Which is why the bailouts have not worked in the greater economy. Solvency, the lack of it, can not be remedied by phoney liquidity, the bailout trillions have been wasted on Wall St. "assets".

Crisis economy formation measures must be implemented now or this great nation is doomed. Job mobilization and production in vital sectors of the population's physical economy must be activated now as if all out war were declared.

The immediate implementation of the Glass-Steagall standard in US banking is absolutely crucial to the stabilization of the national economy, the United States, cancelling all obligations to the Inter Alpha Group of Banks, the Wall St. cabal. Put the Fed into bankruptcy protection, recover the bailout trillions. Create the US National Bank that funds the 50 states, then fund the necessary facilities that enhance the population's standard of living. Stop Perpetual War. No other options exist, and time is running out.
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onememphisdude
11:22 AM on 06/28/2011
You make some great points, however, until Senator Chris Dodd, and Rep Barney Frank are called to task for their actions in creating this crisis, nothing will change. The major players in the housing bust and bubble are walking away Scott free. Our current administration is clueless, and until we elect someone with proven executive leadership skills, this mess will only get worse. You are correct: "Time is running out."
09:54 AM on 06/28/2011
First you go after the appraisers and when they are scared of going to jail they will tell who told them to inflate the value of the homes they appraised.
MY sister-inlaw lives in Nashville Tn. and when she refinanced her home it was appraised at more than $250,000.00 . When she had to refinance it three years latter she was told it was worth only $175,000.00 and she would have to pay the difference between what she owes and $175,000.00.
Even with the housing downturn her house should have gone down that much in three years. If you can get the appraisers to talk then you will find out who commited the real crimes.
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09:48 AM on 06/28/2011
we are all hamsters on neocon "financially engineered" and "financially innovated" wheels

police protect the wealthiest,we are robbed blind WITH NO PROSECUTIONS! goldman sachs, blankfein, paulson, robby rubin and his proteges, geithner and the ny fed syndicate, bernanke, greenspam, thain, fuld, sandy weill, chais, picower, dimon, wynn, adelson, charles prince, stephen friedman, jerry speyer... decimated the middle class, lowered their own taxes, SIT ON TRILLIONS, invest in OTHER countries NOT THE US where unemployment, foreclosures, no quality healthcare, college students without HOPE and huge BANK LOANS, homelessness, all at historic levels.

call out the police to keep the rabble down and arrest them if they videotape the police so there's no evidence! there will be an "internal investigation" where there are never any prosecutions in cities across the country.

nationally warrant-less wiretaps are rampant. the fbi knocks out hundreds of web businesses seizing web servers looking for spammers.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/21/f-b-i-seizes-web-servers-knocking-sites-offline/

this is all about the GREATEST REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN HISTORY that republicans droned on about during the last election.

they LIED about who it was being redistributed to; the WEALTHIEST OF THE WEALTHY. they want a constant state of war, huge prisons, and a police state because it's good for their businesses.

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2010/10/08/Neocons-Talk-Deficit-but-Wont-Budge-on-Defense-Cuts.aspx

welcome to serfdom 2.0
08:48 AM on 06/28/2011
A lot of people posting here get it. General public doesn't, and MSM holds some blame. If the Ponzi problems are not understood, nothing really gets fixed and the economy remains in downward spiral. Reading "The Big Short" brings quick understanding.
I've been trying something else, copied N.C. Guilford County Thigpen's collection of "Linda Green" and other robo/forged signatures and summary. Handed some copies out. People recognize wide variation of signatures as forgery, eyes widen, jaws drop, bringing reality home. Great visual aid to understanding monstrous mess!
Laws put in place after S&L disaster allowed systematic take-overs to wind down fraudy banks. Instead it's still being papered over. When we reward bad behavior, we simply get more bad - now exhibited in foreclosure frauds, HAMP disasters and taking houses where people don't have loans or aren't behind with payment. This is third world or post-communist government behavior.
08:28 AM on 06/28/2011
The root cause for housing melt down ........ DEREGULATION of wall street banks maortage companies loa servicers and on and on these companies could do whatever they pleased. And did just that we all see the end result and the fat lady has not sung yet.
08:59 AM on 06/28/2011
Last significant loss of regulation leading directly to this disaster was getting rid of Glass-Steagall Act 1991, Depression Era law that separated commercial banks from investment casinos. The Act was put in place after investigation of bad investment paper and hedging (shorting) up to 1929. Act had to go for us to comply with World Trade Organization rules. Don't think the WTO/IMF are doing us or Eurozone much good.
Unlike 1929, this time Washington didn't investigate crash because they didn't want to know - or didn't want public to know. We've had no Pecora.
Bless the author/blogger for continuing to dig up and expose the dirt.
07:37 AM on 06/28/2011
Not this same 'ol line again...it's the _______ (Bush, bank, republicans, tea party, "someone other than myself)...

Of course the person that took the loan in the first place bears absolutly NO responcibility for THIER actions.
08:29 AM on 06/28/2011
Did you even read the article? Did you read the part where Countrywide was inflating people's income in order to qualify them for bigger loans? If I go to a mortgage broker and tell them I make 50K a year, but behind the scenes, they're telling the lender I make 100K, how is that my fault? You're typical of right-wingers, always blaming the victim.
09:06 AM on 06/28/2011
You're right about pushy Countrywide. However, right wingers who appreciate Constitutional protection, due process of law and responsibility are simply ill informed. Bankster PR/spin has been effective, and MSM regardless of flavor have not reported in depth or accurately. It took 60 Minutes until April this year to report on robosigning and forgery in foreclosures even though it's been going on since before the crash. Try informing those right wingers with facts/details. If they knew, they could be allies.
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onememphisdude
11:36 AM on 06/28/2011
...and you are telling me that the consumer had absolutely NO FAULT in misstating their income for "liar loans." Sorry. I know a few of the people who fudged their incomes for these type of home loans. They are not innocent. They should NEVER have been given approval! Banks and mortgage companies were REQUIRED to push these sub-prime loans..or face loss of their charter. (Thanks Chris Dodd and Barney Frank.) Countrywide was doing exactly what our government dictated, and they did it better than anyone else. Countrywide took the blame that our Congress should have shouldered. It was greed from the top down, and bottom up that created this implosion. Democrats are to blame. Republicans are to blame. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are to blame. (along with director Frank Raines.)
06:53 AM on 06/28/2011
Let's not forget medical costs. One major disease in a family will destroy it. If we manage to get rid of Medicare then expect complete collapse as families struggle to help Mom and Dad.
02:27 AM on 06/28/2011
This is all true but why does no one report that the US Congress kept pushing mortgage companies to provide more loans to unqualified borrowers. This crisis was caused by government policies!
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aHorsewithNoname
Let my Sacrifice not be in Vain
04:01 AM on 06/28/2011
If you mean by a LACK of enforcement of those said policies, then we agree.
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onememphisdude
12:00 PM on 06/28/2011
..no. I dont mean lack of enforcement. Congressman Barney Frank and Senator Chris Dodd REQUIRED mortgage companies to offer these loans..under PENALTY for non-compliance. A hundred-thousand regulators will never replace the power of greed and incompetence from the top down. The banks and mortgage companies are for profit businesses. If the marketplace had been allowed to work, without Federal political interference...those banks would have operated with the knowledge that they could lose their business by making improper lending decisions. All the rules of prudent banking were scrapped by Congress. (i.e. Glass-Stegall,) etc. Banks were REASSURED that these were loans that were backed by the "full faith and trust of The U.S." The (misguided) belief was that everyone has "the right" to own a house...regardless of ability to pay! This very predictable mess was "the perfect storm.
To correct this, the market should have been allowed to take its losses. A.I.G., Citi-Goup, Bank of America, should ALL have been allowed to go bankrupt. Yes...it would have been painful. The administration however, decided that some were.."too big to fail." You are living through the results of that incompetent decision. It will take YEARS to recover, even if we have competent leadership elected in 2012.
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The Nuh Uh Chronicles
....laugh or get out!.....
04:05 AM on 06/28/2011
the crisis was caused when the banks had a chance to help a lot of people live the American Dream,...but...they chose to victimize them instead.....had the banks followed any rules other than their own...there may not have been a crisis....Too many people fell for the okey doke, .....didn't ask questions,..... didn't have a plan B...didn't pay attention...why aren't state attorney general being inundated with letters...like thousands a day...demanding bank execs and all those involved in the frauds be prosecuted...why aren't people boycotting these banks...why do they still get their credit cards?....Why are people still spending millions on movie tickets....but....complain they have no money...when will people take...responsibility...for their....own actions ....and ...change this "The Joneses" attitude?
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Capn Scott
the 'moderated' me
01:06 AM on 06/28/2011
Here's _my_ solution to the housing crisis. Relieve the banks of their ill-gotten gains (foreclosed houses). Sell the houses for $1 each to any family that agrees to live in them and fix them up for a year.

Problem solved. (And banks properly spanked for their crimes)
10:58 AM on 06/28/2011
give all the forclosed homes to the vets coming home and there families they should not have to worry about this when they come home they have more than paid there dues more shame on the gov sponges....
12:45 AM on 06/28/2011
Back in 2000 I helped construct a very large Countrywide office and was amassed at how many mega-value vehicles were in the parking lot. I saw more Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Maserati logos than I had ever seen in all my life. These people knew what they were doing, but greed was paying off big time for them.
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Jason Vineyard
Dem turned Repub Constitutionalist
11:50 PM on 06/27/2011
I think everyone in America should simply just walk away from their mortgages all at once! This will bring houses back into affordability and destroy these predatory mega banks on wallstreet once and for all. Then we can rebuild our country based on small community banks and small town mom and pop stores!
01:03 AM on 06/28/2011
My sentiments exactly! Since we've footed the bill for these megabanks with our taxes and got nothing in return, it's about time we just walked away. Let these banks scramble for help as their bottom line flatlines, and power is returned to Main Street (from Wall Street). Community level economies will be this nation's survival.
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shankapotomus
11:07 PM on 06/27/2011
Maybe if the democrats hadn't protected Fannie and Freddie we wouldn't be here.
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
10:35 PM on 06/27/2011
Excellent coverage of the issues (ms. Tavakoli puts the blame for the loans where it belongs). However, one point is being missed by everyone looking for 'recovery'. A very high proportion of the construction of the past ten years will NEVER be viable. A huge amount of it was built in outlying exurbs with commutes that were only feasible as long as gas prices stayed around $2/gallon. These days, if you've got a 50 mile commute, you'd better hope that you have enough land to try subsistence farming.

The banksters (with the full cooperation of the past and current administration) have been allowed to kick the 'mark to market' can down the road, hoping that the Oil Fairy and the Good Jobs fairy will alight  on the country again to make these properties have value again. People who work for Walmart wages can barely afford CARS, let alone houses; And even the people lucky enough to find subsistence wage jobs are a net economic drain on communities once you calculate Food Stamps and Section 8 housing vouchers. Somebody needs to come up with a real solution to this mess.
11:14 PM on 06/27/2011
If I may add, old construction's biggest enemy is new construction. Old construction needs maintenance, sometimes alot, new construction pulls money and tenants away from old construction.

We should have closed down Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae long ago. Government credit, if not properly supervised, is squandered.
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
07:57 AM on 06/28/2011
Freddie and Fannie were private companies with their own profit agenda and stockholders. They were 'government sponsored entities' insofar as they got huge tax breaks for buying up mortgage properties from the government. But their corporate leadership was compensated in the million-dollar range--these weren't government agencies. And because they had their own money and their own interests, they employed a small army of lobbyists who made sure that any attempt at regulation and oversight was stalled.

And this is the problem with government underwriting of quasi-private enterprises like banks (through the FDIC). If the government can't regulate the conduct of your business, then you shouldn't get the benefit of its insurance pool.  The FDIC is now telling banks to limit their portfolios of commercial real estate loans, fearing the recession may start wiping out malls and office complexes. The only threat the FDIC has is the threat of FDIC takeover.
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HamletsMill
All Myth is Astronomy
12:27 AM on 06/28/2011
llen Brown - Web of Debt (1 of 5)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0XiklHPMc

One Possible Solution (1 of 5)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2atnm1oTjJ8