iOS app Android app

Jared Bernstein
GET UPDATES FROM Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein is a Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, former economist for the Obama administration, and a CNBC and MSNBC contributor.

Entries by Jared Bernstein

How States Can Stop Wasting Their Taxpayers' Money

(22) Comments | Posted February 8, 2016 | 3:05 PM

Most state governors want to bring more businesses and employment to their states and maintain sustainable budgets. An important new paper from two of our colleagues, Michael Mazerov and Mike Leachman (M&L), provides a new and important insight in this regard: incentives in the form of tax breaks...

Read Post

Jobs Day: Slower Payroll Growth But Faster Wage Growth As We Get Closer to Full Employment

(3) Comments | Posted February 5, 2016 | 12:44 PM

Job growth slowed in January, as the nation's employers added 151,000 net new jobs, compared to over 250,000 in each of the prior three months. However, while slower job growth may be a function of recent market volatility and slower growth abroad, it is far too soon to draw any...

Read Post

Bernie, Hillary, the Binding Constraints of Cramped Reality, and the Overton Window

(32) Comments | Posted January 28, 2016 | 4:48 PM

I may be a bit out of my depth here but let me offer a few thoughts on a debate among progressives that leaves me scratching away at the old noggin. Here are the bones of the thing, as I kinda understand them:

Argument 1: "Bernie supporters, you're going to...

Read Post

Republican Candidates on Poverty: More Talk Than Walk

(53) Comments | Posted January 11, 2016 | 1:23 PM

On Saturday, six Republican candidates for president joined Speaker Paul Ryan, Senator Tim Scott, and other members of their party for a forum on poverty in America. Some of what they said made sense. Much of what they proposed did not.

We'll get to the policy disagreements in a moment,...

Read Post

2015 Was Solid Year for Job Growth. What Happens Next Matters a Lot.

(10) Comments | Posted January 8, 2016 | 11:45 AM

Payrolls were up 292,000 in December and the unemployment rate held steady at a low rate of 5 percent in another in a series of increasingly solid reports on conditions in the US labor market. Upward revisions for the prior two months added 50,000 jobs, leading to an average of...

Read Post

Yes, Virginia... There Is an Aggressive and Highly Successful Anti-Tax Lobby

(93) Comments | Posted January 1, 2016 | 10:33 AM

The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting piece yesterday morning showing how the effective tax rate -- taxes as a share of income -- spiked up significantly in 2013 for the wealthiest taxpayers due to an increase in the tax rate on capital gains. This is important information...

Read Post

Did Minimum Wage Increases Really Kill 200K Jobs? Nope.

(233) Comments | Posted December 23, 2015 | 12:30 PM

A number of folks have asked me about this article claiming that recent minimum wage increases may have "killed as many as 200,000 jobs." In fact, based on a balanced look at the underlying data, the article could also just as easily have argued that these increases did not...

Read Post

3-2-1: Liftoff! Nothing in Today's Solid Jobs Report to Stop the Fed

(10) Comments | Posted December 4, 2015 | 10:48 AM

Payrolls were up 211,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 5%, giving the Federal Reserve little reason to rethink their chartered course to commence interest-rate liftoff later this month. The prior two months' job gains were revised up 35,000, with October's gains now registered at 298,000, the...

Read Post

Solid Jobs Report Will Likely Lead the Fed to Raise Next Month... But What About After That?

(62) Comments | Posted November 6, 2015 | 9:48 AM

The nation's employers added 271,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 5 percent in a solid report on labor market conditions. Wages grew 2.5 percent over the past year, their strongest yearly performance since the recession officially ended in June 2009.

Today's report portrayed a...

Read Post

If You're Not Saving for Retirement or a Rainy Day, Then myRA Should Be yourRA

(27) Comments | Posted November 5, 2015 | 8:42 AM

Some aspects of the economy get a lot of attention. You get a daily earful from the financial press about some random wiggle in the stock market. News organizations devote endless columns to the musings of the Federal Reserve.

Then there are other economic problems that you don't hear...

Read Post

"Free Stuff:" The Hypocrisy of a Growing Campaign Theme

(2) Comments | Posted November 2, 2015 | 2:47 PM

So, we were hanging around the water cooler the other day reflecting on this "free stuff" meme. That conversation led to this guest post written by Ben Spielberg, Cecile Murray, and Bryann DaSilva. Add up their ages and you'd probably get pretty close to mine -- in other words, these...

Read Post

We Must Not Allow Scare Tactics to Derail the Conflict-of-Interest Rule

(0) Comments | Posted October 20, 2015 | 2:54 PM

[This post was written jointly with Lily Batchelder.]

In objecting to our op-ed on the importance of ensuring that financial advisors place their clients' best interest ahead of their personal profits, Dirk Kempthorne, the President and CEO of the American Council for Life Insurers, offers a misleading argument, built...

Read Post

Fair Hiring Practices: Big Bang for Buck and Bipartisan Support

(4) Comments | Posted October 13, 2015 | 10:33 AM

Try to think of a policy idea that has the following characteristics:

  • it costs almost nothing to implement;
  • it has the potential to help millions of highly disadvantaged people raise their living standards;
  • it is supported by both President Obama and the Koch brothers;
  • the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental...
Read Post

A Quick Reflection on the Current Upheaval in DC Politics: What Are Its Larger Costs?

(0) Comments | Posted October 9, 2015 | 4:41 PM

The House speakership debate is like the implosion of a dysfunction neutrino. It's like a Russian stacking doll with ever deeper levels of dysfunction. It's House Republicans basically showing the world that they can't even figure out exactly how they're going to remain dysfunctional. They'll figure it out, but it's...

Read Post

Making Sense of the TPP: Don't Confuse Trade With Trade Deals

(60) Comments | Posted October 6, 2015 | 10:46 AM

After years of negotiating, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 30-chapter, 12-country trade agreement that's been in the works for years, was signed yesterday by participating countries.

Trade negotiators from the U.S., Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam resolved long-standing differences on tariffs, dispute procedures,...

Read Post

September Jobs: A Weak Report, But Does It Reveal a True Downshift?

(28) Comments | Posted October 2, 2015 | 10:43 AM

The nation's payrolls rose by only 142,000 last month, and job gains for July and August were revised down by 59,000, suggesting the pace of job growth has slowed in recent months. The labor force contracted and weekly hours work also declined slightly. Hourly pay was unchanged over the month...

Read Post

Jobs Report: Yes, the Unemployment Rate Is 5.1%. No, We Are Not At Full Employment

(84) Comments | Posted September 4, 2015 | 2:08 PM


Source: BLS, my calculations

Job growth came in below expectations, as August's payrolls grew 173,000, according to this morning's jobs report from BLS. Private sector job growth was particularly weak, at 140,000, its weakest month since March. Wage growth remains tame --...

Read Post

'Smell Something, Say Something!' Teachers' Unions Do Not Hurt Student Outcomes.

(204) Comments | Posted August 21, 2015 | 10:50 AM

Welcome to the first edition of a new On The Economy feature, dedicated to the parting admonition of the great Jon Stewart: when it comes to BS, "smell something, say something!"

To be clear, I'm not trying to emulate the fact checkers out there. Nor am I going to peruse...

Read Post

The Non-Madness of the Minimum Wage

(68) Comments | Posted August 3, 2015 | 6:33 PM

The "Fight for $15" -- a nationwide movement to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour --has taken a lot of "incoming" from critics. Today, it's Bob Samuelson's turn, who under a column titled "minimum wage madness" argues that a substantial minimum wage increase would cause "job...

Read Post

People On Third Base Claiming They Hit a Triple, or Marginal Product Theory at Work... Not!

(0) Comments | Posted July 3, 2015 | 1:18 PM

One of the less defensible assumptions of microeconomics is that people get paid their "marginal product," i.e., their wage equals the value of the output they produce. Thus, according to the theory, if the last worker hired is being paid an hourly wage less than the value of the firm's...

Read Post