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Jared Bernstein
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Jared Bernstein is a Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, former economist for the Obama administration, and a CNBC and MSNBC contributor.

Entries by Jared Bernstein

Big Report, Little Finding: The ITC Evaluates the Economic Impact of the TPP

(77) Comments | Posted May 19, 2016 | 5:56 PM

The International Trade Commission (ITC) just released its 792-page monster of a report on the "likely impact" of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the US economy. The findings are largely positive on net but tiny, which confirms two of my priors. First, I see no rational way your support or...

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Trade Deficits Are Not Scorecards. But Under Certain Circumstances, They're Far From Benign.

(36) Comments | Posted March 28, 2016 | 6:09 PM

Neil Irwin over at the NYT has apparently drawn the unenviable job of explaining what's wrong with Trumponomics. Hislatest entry, on trade deficits, is framed around an important, overlooked point, but he misses some important nuances, and his conclusion re: trade deficits as conditionally benign seemed pretty far...

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Five Simple Formulas That Capture Today's Economic Challenges and Solutions

(5) Comments | Posted March 21, 2016 | 10:07 AM

Contemporary economics is often criticized for being too mathematical. How can we really capture the complex dynamics of what's happening in people's economic lives with a bunch of formulas?

In fact, the point of all the math is to distill people's complex experiences down to something we can model, understand,...

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Trump's Health Care Plan Ain't Worth Much

(46) Comments | Posted March 3, 2016 | 1:42 PM

I just had a look at Trump's skinny-down health care plan. Here's my summary:

1. Repeal Obamacare
2. Kick out undocumented immigrants
3. ???
4. Enjoy awesome health care!

There's a bit more in there, some of which is good, some of which is...

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Today's Head-scratcher: Why, Like the Moth to the Flame, Are Republican Candidates so Drawn to Supply-side Tax Cuts?

(213) Comments | Posted February 23, 2016 | 1:59 PM

Let me paraphrase that title a bit: why are they so forthcoming about it in the midst of an anti-establishment election?

Read this useful NYT review of the depth of the R candidates tax-cut proposals.

The tax plans of the Republican presidential candidates would cut federal revenues...

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How States Can Stop Wasting Their Taxpayers' Money

(33) Comments | Posted February 8, 2016 | 2:05 PM

Most state governors want to bring more businesses and employment to their states and maintain sustainable budgets. An important new paper from two of our colleagues, Michael Mazerov and Mike Leachman (M&L), provides a new and important insight in this regard: incentives in the form of tax breaks...

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Jobs Day: Slower Payroll Growth But Faster Wage Growth As We Get Closer to Full Employment

(3) Comments | Posted February 5, 2016 | 11:44 AM

Job growth slowed in January, as the nation's employers added 151,000 net new jobs, compared to over 250,000 in each of the prior three months. However, while slower job growth may be a function of recent market volatility and slower growth abroad, it is far too soon to draw any...

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Bernie, Hillary, the Binding Constraints of Cramped Reality, and the Overton Window

(32) Comments | Posted January 28, 2016 | 3:48 PM

I may be a bit out of my depth here but let me offer a few thoughts on a debate among progressives that leaves me scratching away at the old noggin. Here are the bones of the thing, as I kinda understand them:

Argument 1: "Bernie supporters, you're going to...

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Republican Candidates on Poverty: More Talk Than Walk

(53) Comments | Posted January 11, 2016 | 12:23 PM

On Saturday, six Republican candidates for president joined Speaker Paul Ryan, Senator Tim Scott, and other members of their party for a forum on poverty in America. Some of what they said made sense. Much of what they proposed did not.

We'll get to the policy disagreements in a moment,...

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2015 Was Solid Year for Job Growth. What Happens Next Matters a Lot.

(10) Comments | Posted January 8, 2016 | 10:45 AM

Payrolls were up 292,000 in December and the unemployment rate held steady at a low rate of 5 percent in another in a series of increasingly solid reports on conditions in the US labor market. Upward revisions for the prior two months added 50,000 jobs, leading to an average of...

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Yes, Virginia... There Is an Aggressive and Highly Successful Anti-Tax Lobby

(93) Comments | Posted January 1, 2016 | 9:33 AM

The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting piece yesterday morning showing how the effective tax rate -- taxes as a share of income -- spiked up significantly in 2013 for the wealthiest taxpayers due to an increase in the tax rate on capital gains. This is important information...

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Did Minimum Wage Increases Really Kill 200K Jobs? Nope.

(227) Comments | Posted December 23, 2015 | 11:30 AM

A number of folks have asked me about this article claiming that recent minimum wage increases may have "killed as many as 200,000 jobs." In fact, based on a balanced look at the underlying data, the article could also just as easily have argued that these increases did not...

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3-2-1: Liftoff! Nothing in Today's Solid Jobs Report to Stop the Fed

(10) Comments | Posted December 4, 2015 | 9:48 AM

Payrolls were up 211,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 5%, giving the Federal Reserve little reason to rethink their chartered course to commence interest-rate liftoff later this month. The prior two months' job gains were revised up 35,000, with October's gains now registered at 298,000, the...

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Solid Jobs Report Will Likely Lead the Fed to Raise Next Month... But What About After That?

(62) Comments | Posted November 6, 2015 | 8:48 AM

The nation's employers added 271,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 5 percent in a solid report on labor market conditions. Wages grew 2.5 percent over the past year, their strongest yearly performance since the recession officially ended in June 2009.

Today's report portrayed a...

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If You're Not Saving for Retirement or a Rainy Day, Then myRA Should Be yourRA

(27) Comments | Posted November 5, 2015 | 7:42 AM

Some aspects of the economy get a lot of attention. You get a daily earful from the financial press about some random wiggle in the stock market. News organizations devote endless columns to the musings of the Federal Reserve.

Then there are other economic problems that you don't hear...

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"Free Stuff:" The Hypocrisy of a Growing Campaign Theme

(2) Comments | Posted November 2, 2015 | 1:47 PM

So, we were hanging around the water cooler the other day reflecting on this "free stuff" meme. That conversation led to this guest post written by Ben Spielberg, Cecile Murray, and Bryann DaSilva. Add up their ages and you'd probably get pretty close to mine -- in other words, these...

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We Must Not Allow Scare Tactics to Derail the Conflict-of-Interest Rule

(0) Comments | Posted October 20, 2015 | 1:54 PM

[This post was written jointly with Lily Batchelder.]

In objecting to our op-ed on the importance of ensuring that financial advisors place their clients' best interest ahead of their personal profits, Dirk Kempthorne, the President and CEO of the American Council for Life Insurers, offers a misleading argument, built...

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Fair Hiring Practices: Big Bang for Buck and Bipartisan Support

(4) Comments | Posted October 13, 2015 | 9:33 AM

Try to think of a policy idea that has the following characteristics:

  • it costs almost nothing to implement;
  • it has the potential to help millions of highly disadvantaged people raise their living standards;
  • it is supported by both President Obama and the Koch brothers;
  • the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental...
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A Quick Reflection on the Current Upheaval in DC Politics: What Are Its Larger Costs?

(0) Comments | Posted October 9, 2015 | 3:41 PM

The House speakership debate is like the implosion of a dysfunction neutrino. It's like a Russian stacking doll with ever deeper levels of dysfunction. It's House Republicans basically showing the world that they can't even figure out exactly how they're going to remain dysfunctional. They'll figure it out, but it's...

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Making Sense of the TPP: Don't Confuse Trade With Trade Deals

(60) Comments | Posted October 6, 2015 | 9:46 AM

After years of negotiating, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 30-chapter, 12-country trade agreement that's been in the works for years, was signed yesterday by participating countries.

Trade negotiators from the U.S., Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam resolved long-standing differences on tariffs, dispute procedures,...

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