Well, how about that? A hefty upside surprise from the jobs report. Employers added 243,000 jobs last month -- 257,000 in the private sector -- with gains across most industries. And the unemployment rate ticked down from 8.5% to 8.3%, the lowest it has been since Feb 2009.
Technical issues having to do with fun stuff like revisions and seasonal adjustments are playing a role in the monthly numbers right now so it's good to average over a few months. Over the last three months, the average rate of job growth has been 200,000, compared to about half that if you go back a few months.
As I stress below, today's report contains a critical message for policy makers; we've got some real momentum here on the most important economic issue to the American people: JOBS... let's not screw it up.
As shown in the charts -- with apologies for the lame-looking arrows -- the trend is our friend both on the unemployment rate and net job growth.
Now, for some caveats.
Re: that last point, as I wrote yesterday, this is your unemployment rate under fiscal drag. While policy makers are very unlikely to follow current law -- full sunset of Bush tax cuts -- in the near term, they're also unlikely to go the other way -- to add a fiscal boost to the recovering job market. Even extending the payroll tax cut and UI benefits is proving -- predictably -- to be a heavy lift.
This jobs report, which clearly shows positive momentum, should force Congress to absolutely seal that deal immediately. From the perspective of working families, the most important part of the economy is showing some improvement. We're not talking banks, GDP, industrial production, credit flows, deficits, interest rates -- we're talking jobs.
Let's not screw this up.
This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.
Robert Creamer: Last Friday the GOP Had a Really Bad Day
it appears that the people NOT in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million.
1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month. ONE MONTH.
The labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased to 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million.
Which means that the US CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE CRASHED AGAIN to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7%
Math still works...even if you ignore, deny, and can't comprehend it
Regardless we are down 7 million from 2007 numbers. If we could possibly add 250,000 it will take over 5 years to get back all jobs.
No Bailouts – The world derivatives bubble amounts to approximately $1.5 quadrillion ($1,500 trillion or $1, 500, 000,000,000,000), which adds up to about 25 times the total world gross domestic product of perhaps $65 trillion, although this latter figure would need to be deflated to remove speculative hot air. The European share of the world derivatives bubble is certainly in excess of one third, meaning more than $500 trillion. This sum alone exceeds the capacity of the planet Earth to generate credit and liquidity. It is a black hole capable of eating up the exertions of all of the central banks of the globe. It cannot be bailed out. Derivatives can only be disintegrated, meaning in practice shredded or deleted. The fate of civilization itself rides on understanding this problem. Mrs. Merkel is on the wrong track.
The problem is our irreparably broken and rigged governmental system that has become our worst enemy.
It is now time to do our duty and ditch this antiquated, hijacked, and dangerous system. It is not only our duty, it is our right to alter or abolish this governmental system as we see fit. Alter is not an option, because this system can not be salvaged; this system MUST be abolished and replaced with an honorable, patriotic, and representative one that is responsive to our wishes and is transparent, accountable to the middle class, and has an impregnable steel wall between governance and the money, jobs, perks, and power grabs that have destroyed our democracy.
It is time now for the people in each state in America to VOTE to divorce this government; abolish it, and replace it as we see fit. It no longer represents us and it no longer is constrained by the U.S. Constitution.
50 State Secession !
Freedom !
A new America under a new governing system !
This is how the constitution was supposed to renew itself but even with ALL 50 states being on record as calling for one, congress refuses to host it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Five_of_the_United_States_Constitution
I guess if I listen to him tomorrow, he'll correct this error, right?
But that's just conversation. How about a jobs program? Let's see, in yesterday's NYT, they reported that even while the Euro zone was still languishing, Germany was holding up the whole continent--because they are a net exporter. Wow, what a concept. Germany "makes" things, and they have lower unemployment than any country of its size, and today, in the NYT, an article quoting some Harvard economist (in Krugman's language, a fresh water economist) saying that our economy was too advanced for a return to manufacturing, given that most manufacturing is highly automated, and produce fewer jobs than in days past. Well...how about the "collateral" effect, where one factory creates a hub for other suppliers to set up shop nearby, creating a cascade effect? Sorry, just trying to make sense of all the nonsense.
http://bit.ly/yRWZyN
and he fails to mention the big one, which is 1.2 million people were simply dropped from the unemployment numbers,
That's correct 1.2 million people simply vanished in this report, never to be seen again.
Do you ever get the sense that we are not being told the truth?
Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-
Charles Biderman notes that "Either there is something massively changed in the income tax collection world, or there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs." A 3.3 million "adjustment" solely at the discretion of the BLS? And this from the agency that just admitted it was underestimating the so very critical labor participation rate over the past year? Finally, Biderman wonders whether the BLS is being pressured during an election year to paint an overly optimistic picture by President Obama’s administration in light of these 'real unadjusted job change' facts. Frankly, in light of recent discoveries about the other "impartial" organization, the CBO, we don't think there is any need to wonder at all.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trimtabs-explains-why-todays-very-very-suspicious-nfp-number-really-down-29-million-past-2-mont
All they need to do is drop another 3 to 4million citizens
Thank you for digging down and shedding a little light on reality. This is what journalism was once prized for, but is now handed over to folks like ClearAsMud to decipher. Nice analysis. Balanced and thoughtful.