Keepin' It (A Little Bit) Real

So this friend of mine told me she really liked the Democratic National Convention. "Why?" I asked. "Because it wasn't 100% phony," she said.

I agree. The event was, of course, highly scripted. You can bet every speech was closely vetted. The only truly spontaneous words from that stage were spoken by Obama's (unbelievably cute) kids, when their mom, in what had to be the riskiest call of the week, handed them a live mike to chat with dad in another city.

But what I think my friend meant was that some actual truth and unity managed to break through the pageantry and positioning. Truth regarding the challenges we face in our economy, our foreign policy, health care, and our environment. Unity regarding the critical need to come together in support of a ticket that wasn't everyone's first choice.

From what I heard, the keynote speakers all understood and articulated the substantive challenges, and Obama/Biden have a viable plan to meet them. That, to my ears, is what "change" is all about. "Change" is one of those empty-vessel concepts into which you can pour any idea you want. But after last week, I get it quite clearly, and that was why I think the DNC convention was a success.

"Change" for Democrats in 2008, means two things. One, we engage in reality-based diagnoses of the challenges we face and two, we propose solutions that are very different from the ones we've been pursuing for the past eight years. And very different from those that the other side is proposing.

Take issue #1: the economy. In terms of diagnostics, the Census Bureau released some important numbers last week, which I reviewed here. Though middle-class incomes rose slightly last year, over the full business cycle of the 2000s (that's 2000-07), they were unchanged. That's never happened before. Yes, for decades there's been an evolving gap between overall growth and the living standards of the middle-class, but never before has the median household failed to make at least some economic progress over an economic expansion.

Some highlights from the Census report:

• The income trends were worse for working-age families, headed by someone under 65. The weakest job market on record meant diminished earnings opportunities over the 2000s, and the real median income of these households was down $2,010, 2000-07.

• This is an even more amazing loss when you consider that working families contributed to quite stellar productivity growth rates over these years. This measure of how efficiently the workforce is producing rose 2.5% per year, 2000-07, half-a-percent faster than in the 1990s, when the real median income of working-age households rose more than $5,000. Middle-income workers were more productive, but ended up with less.

• The growth that occurred over these years also bypassed low-income families. Poverty rates were 1.2% higher in 2007 than in 2000, up from 11.3% to 12.5%, an addition of 5.7 million to the poverty rolls, making this the worst cycle for poverty on record.

All week long I argued about these numbers with conservatives on CNBC. They wanted to adjust the data differently, to choose different years for the comparisons. They argued on Wednesday that strong capital goods orders were signs of a turnaround, and on Thursday that better-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter meant the economic debate was over.

I fought back, of course...adjustments and end-points don't change the conclusion that this recovery has been uniquely unrewarding for most families. Regarding GDP growth, if we've learned anything over the past eight years, it's that you can't talk about overall economic growth and assume you're saying anything about how most families are doing (that the problem when there's so much inequality embedded in the economy; and for the record, the GDP spike was likely temporary due to the tax rebates and unusually strong exports in the quarter). Yes, there was a welcome upside surprise to non-defense, ex-aircraft purchases in the durable goods report. But somehow I suspect the fact that jobs and wages are down every month this year is more important to voters right now.

While the conservative economic punditry fails to recognize that it's politically tone deaf to take the Phil "it's-all-in-your-head" Gramm stance on the current economy, McCain gets this, and he's been trying to talk populist these days. But his only plan to help those who've been left behind is to double-down on Bush, further slashing taxes of the wealthiest, cross his fingers and hope that contrary to our experience in the 1980s and even more so in the 2000s, prosperity trickles down to the have-nots.

So there is an inherent non-reality to the Republican platform, a cognitive dissonance that wasn't there in Denver last week. They'll distance themselves from Bush, of course, but since they've signed onto his economic program -- that will take some fancy dancing. They'll pretend that the war, especially the surge, has been a success, because their candidate is stuck in that particular bubble. They'll argue, against the evidence (see the figure on the top of page 3 here), that their guy's health care will cover more of the uninsured at less cost than Obama's plan. They'll have to pretend that McCain's gas tax holiday is a great plan for strapped consumers, and that drilling today will lower prices at the pump tomorrow.

And now with Sarah Palin as VP, they'll be deeply engaged in the cynical and fantastical math that figures women for Hillary Clinton = women for Palin, as if Clinton supporters care nothing about choice, creationism in schools, policy acumen, health care, the environment, and the war.

None of this means that because the D's have a better bead on reality this year, they'll win. These days, closely fought elections turn on a narrow slice of independents who often seem to be so overwhelmed by the info-fog created by the campaigns that they make their choice on which candidate feels better at a gut level.

This year may be different. The contradiction of a growing economy that fails to lift living standards is knocking on too many households' doors (assuming you still own your home) and is too real to ignore. Too many people have died in this terrible war to pull the lever based on who you'd most like to have a beer with. The public's fatigue with Bush and the Republican agenda is evident in the wrong-track polls, and this should help boost the case for reality-based diagnoses and solutions of the type presented with great clarity by Obama on Thursday night.

But there are still weeks to go, and we are likely to be reminded that while the R's may be lousy at governing, they are masterful campaigners (no question that the surprise Palin choice diminished the Obama post-convention bounce). They'll be working hard next week to convince the median, undecided voter that contrary to reality, McCain's economics are different than Bush's, and that Obama will raise taxes on almost everyone (guaranteed, you'll hear this mantra incessantly, though Obama's tax increases only begin at $250,000; he cuts taxes far more aggressively than McCain for the bottom 95% of households).

Behind the scenes, their shock troops will be pushing equally false themes that Obama is too unfamiliar, the kind of guy with whom you really don't want to have a beer. Look for a lot of this nonsense next week, because both Michelle and Barack Obama presented themselves effectively and naturally in Denver.

Like my friend said, our convention, for all its calculated moments, was a little bit real. Within that little dose of reality -- that increasingly rare moment in today's politics when something real is revealed -- lies the difference between a more positive future and more of the same.

Comments

[Craig]

There are two things that continue to really bother me, probably because they are sensitive issues to bring up, but essential to put us back on track.

1--The biggest pork barrel project in the room is military spending. As a budget item, it has grown by 96% over the last 7 years. As an expense, some government estimates show that it covers 42-50% of tax revenues (depending on who you talk to). This covers off budget items and debt payments on prior military overruns. The actual budget this year Is around $600, or only about 30% of revenues. Thirty percent doesn't sound that bad, but 42-50% gets my attention because it's a much bigger problem to lower it to reasonable levels.

We need a military to respond to international threats, but also a sophisticated police force to respond to terrorists threats (terrorist threats will not be solved with military occupations) closely with other countries to track these people down. This smaller and more nimble military should cost a lot less and provide much better security and unwanted confrontation.

2--We need to have a cost recovery mechanism for the Iraq war expenses. This benefit to taxpayers could be set up as an escrow account where all revenues from Iraq to US-based companies is deposited, and the contractors and oil companies are reimbursed at cost plus 10%. This mechanism would be in place until the taxpayer liability ($600-1000 billion) is paid off

[syzito]

"Change" for Democrats in 2008, means two things. One, we engage in reality-based diagnoses of the challenges we face and two, we propose solutions that are very different from the ones we've been pursuing for the past eight years." Give me a break Democrats engage in "reality-based diagnoses" since when? The democrats ruled congress for the past 40 years except for a few years between 1996 and 2006 and they did nothing.Lower taxes?What world are you living in?Not the real world.The democrats are known as the party of "tax and spend" politics.No political party has ever raised taxes during their reign in congress like the democrats.

If you want a "nanny" government to control all of your affairs in life then vote democratic,however if you value the personal freedoms this country has enjoyed for over 200 years leave the democratic party and never go back.

[going2ireland]

Riight - you mean the personal freedoms that Dubya has taken from Americans? You know, like freedom of privacy? Gone. Like freedom of press? Gone. Like the freedom to have photos/videos of the deceased troops coming home? Gone.

Many many more. But that is not personal freedom. That is dictatorship.

[Querent]

"The democrats ruled congress for the past 40 years except for a few years between 1996 and 2006 and they did nothing."

Only a fool could write something like that. Thanks for self-identifying.

[iluvsam]

The Repigs have mastered spin. Look how well they have attempted to spin Palin's lack of experience with "she's more experienced than your #1 on the ticket because she has administrative experience". The infuriating thing for the Dems sitting at home watching is that none of the Dems have responded, "under your definition, she has more experience than YOUR #1 on the ticket as well." The Dems should define what "administrative expereince" means (has she negotiated Compacts or did she negotiate putting a fire hydrant next to a school parking lot? How valuable is HER administrative experience?). Also, where are the political ads on Palin? We need ads showing Palin laughing when a disk jockey called her rival a b**** and showing McCain laughing when the same thing about Sen. Clinton was said (what little respect they both have for women); showing Cindy McCain saying Palin has experience because Alaska is next Russia; showing the size of her pathetic city hall next to pictures of the White House, the Kremlin, etc. to show scale and gravity of the situation; showing her saying the war is all about oil, etc. There's so much content out there on this ridiculous pick, and I can't believe NO ONE has pounced yet. It is infuriating as we Dems are letting the Repigs define her on THEIR terms to the American people..AGAIN.

[dadw5boys]

Well Palin brings with her investigators and lawyers for illeagal use of political power already.

I never would have though of selecting someone under investigation for crimes for the V.P. .

[dadw5boys]

The bottom line is that Obama;s Tax Plan raises taxes on those making ocer $247,000 a year while reducing taxes on incomes of $50,000 or less.

Businesses like oil compnaies would have thier profits taxed

Just like ALASKA TAXES OIL COMPNAY PROFITS NOW!

Wornder if that is why Palin is V.P. ?

Too get her out of Alaska.

[bluesnot]

It's bizarre. Even though the Republican party has driven the economy off the cliff, middle class Americans believe a Democratic president will be even worse.

The worse the economy gets, the better it is for McCain. Americans want the Lone Ranger to come and save them. That's what Reagan was about. It has nothing to do with reality.

[going2ireland]

You are about to find out that what you said is not at all true. A change is a comin' and there is nothing the Repubs can do because they would not know change if it hit them square in the face.

[Diva4]

It was a bold chess-like move by McCain to distract from the strength of the Democrats' convention and in that context it worked but the NYT dug up some shifts in position Palin exhibited on "The Bridge to Nowhere." More will probably surface as she is closely probed.

As long as she keeps her glasses and her clothes on, we will not be distracted when trying to discover if she had barbecues with any Tony Resko types etc. She sounds like a competent person but over time it won't fly IMO.

The appointment of Palin reminds me of the colored fog squirted out in the middle of musicals. It takes you by surprise and then you cant wait for it to clear so you can see the rest of the show.

Diva4 in Toronto

[researcher]

the repubs know how to win elections

accuse the demos of tax and spend

accuse them of being un american

accuse them of being whimps and spineless on national security

well they have the spineless nailed down

look at gore kerry nancy and reid and make your choice

bush actually got more funding for his war after 2006 elections

never again will I vote demo

now an independent will vote for nader

you want spineless vote demo

you want wars vote mc war

this is what you will get with either party

http://www.ellensplace.net/fascism.html

[ricker6791]

Why are the dems seemingly incensed at the Palin pick?
Do they fear her strong conservative credentials?
Do they fear a strong women who takes no %^&*?

It seems to me that the Dems always say they are the party for everyone however when a african american or a women is chosen for an important decision the Dems come out with fangs.

It just makes the conservative majority in this country laugh (especially on election day).

[lbcny]

Your definition of fascism is the true.
People need to start paying some attention and get with it.
It is time to prepare ourselves for The Revolution!

[mcfried]

You may want to reconsider your logic. Nader can never win. In your case you may want to pick the lesser of 2 evils. Me I actually like my candidate.
Obama 08

[kjohn1]

there are two points I would like to address in your post.
1. The repubs are NOT masterful campaigners. They OWN the media. For the most part only their voices get heard.

2. The 2000 election was stolen by the repubs and the 2004 election was full of irregularities that against the odds by far favored the repubs. Read the GAO report on the 2000 Florida election. Gore won the 2000 election. The 2004 elections speak for themselves. Kerry won.

Please, Please, Please STOP this meme about the repubs. being masters of anything but greed and corruption.

[FACINGREALIT]

I have never heard the TRUTH spoken better! You nailed the EXACT reason repugs win - THEY OWN THE MEDIA and only their voices get heard! It is like anything else, if you repeat the same thing over and over again something sticks! McCain shouldn't even be close in this race with all of his gaffes and yet we only hear about negatives related to Obama or Michelle or the Democrats.

Take for instance the Democratic Convention, even the repugs were amazed at its success Pat Bucanan was raving about Barack's speech - stating how it was the absolute greatest ever given and yet the media wants us to believe that there wasn't a bounce in the polls.

America has been dumbed down and even with all the research tools available to us most still rely on the media for their truths. It is SAD but it is TRUE, which is why we have to support the organizations like MOVEON.org who can assists in Swiftboating w/o the media being able to say - Obama said!

[heal57]

Perfect points, jkohn. The republicans OWN the media; we get big time republican bias except for Olberman on MSNBC. Both elections [2000 and 2004] were stolen in different ways. You are totally on point, republicans have become more and more greedy and corrupt and are putting American lives in danger with their so-called foreign policy. Out with republicans and then the lobbyists; we need a system change.


Independent for Obama/Biden '08

[zerotimes10]

We Democrats must constantly fight the BIG LIE. The Repubs know that the bigger the lie the more people will believe it. The question is: when will the people finally begin to see through it?

[achilles83]

It;s all about the oil people! I got to give it to McCain on the timing,but I believe he was digging himself in a hole with a shovel,now he's doing it with a backhoe. If he wins?? Forget about Anwar it will become a nightmare!!!!! It's up to Biden to take her apart on the issues,because she will come with talking points with a kiss of death! Don't believe the hype that the repubs will spin she can be a good V.P if need be president(basiclly the Female version of Bush with hint of Northern exposure). The only thing she has going for her is that she's young,attr­active,and fairly new to the game,but make no mistake you can tell in her eyes that she has a lot of fight in her!My question is this why would you join a campaign with a four month old baby with d.s? Because is if she really cared for her infant it would be in her best interest to Stay in her home state,because that's a big load already(Alaska 680,000)!

[samandally]

Why are all the lefties relying on Old Joe, Can't their candidate speak for himself? OOps, we already know the answer to that one.

[Indeedwespeak]

Exactly! Talking points she will use, all easily refuted by FACTS. If Biden sticks to the facts in them debates, the weight of the TRUTH will sink her ship.

[TrialDate]

We continue to hear the media WORLD talk about what a brilliant choice mcsame maded, instead talking about what a terrible thing this human will do to our country and the world. The media has done the people a horrible service by allowing bush and the neocon to get away with treason and now they're doing the same thing with mcsame pick as vp. What the media should be doing is asking the tough questions. Like, is that bady with down syndrome is really her bady and not her eldest daughter. Investigating jouralism into palin background. Maybe, national enquirer can jump on this story. No, one else want too...

[UnintendedConsequences]

We need access to John McCain's Medical records.

Please spread the word:
John McCain restricted which reporters saw his medical records and for only 10 minutes and they could not make copies.

We need to write/email the media and tell them to demand unrestricted access to McCains medical records.

Because of his reckless VP pick, its important that the media ask for unrestricted access to his medical records.

[ShamusNYC]

I wish that O would just do a direct ad - him talking directly to the camera - calling McC a liar on the taxes issue.

McC deserves to be punched in the face on these distortions - POW or not.

[samandally]

With a script, right?

[going2ireland]

And McCain ad libs? You gotta be kidding, right?

[FloaterBall]

I wholeheartedly agree with Shamus. In fact, Obama doesn't even have to call McCain a liar, simply tell the public exactly what his tax plan is. Spell it out, stand behind it, contrast the difference with how McCain paints it. It's not rocket science, even Joe Sixpack will get it. Time's a wastin, O.

[UnintendedConsequences]

We need access to John McCain's Medical records.

Please spread the word:
John McCain restricted which reporters saw his medical records and for only 10 minutes and they could not make copies.

We need to write/email the media and tell them to demand unrestricted access to McCains medical records.

Because of his reckless VP pick, its important that the media ask for unrestricted access to

[TonyForesta]

The republicans, like their masters in the Bush government are pathological liars. You can examine all the wingnut jibberish attempting to paint Palin as a National Security expert because she lives in Alaska, close to Russia, and the hilarious fiction, that the fascists in the Bush government, and the GOP in general actually care about our fellow Americans in New Orleans. All they care about is bad press and the haunting memory of the Bush governments woeful incompetence and obdurate disregard for the lives of black, brown and poor people before, during, and after Katrina.

Republicans are pathological LIARS.

[M1]

The Democratic convention was great. I watched in on a Dish live feed...no commentators...from gavel to gavel. Obama is disciplined and Briliant. I am very proud of my party for the first time in a long time. That said, the Palin pick is very dangerous.

Palin's selection is intended to insult and pain women democrats who have worked to break glass cielings all their lives....she was selected to be the gasoline and the Democratic attacks the match to ignite cultural warfare and change the National Debate. Like the andromeda strain, the more you attack Palin the more cultural warfare grows and we lose the White House.

Be disciplined like Hillary in your response..­..Gracious but on policy point.