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Pesky Brother-in-Law: Christmas Edition

Posted: 12/24/11 03:47 PM ET

Hear those jingle bells in the distance? It's a sleigh coming up the drive, led by that chubby, jolly, old... conservative brother-in-law.

What with Christmas upon us and the family coming around, it's time for the next edition of what to do when that pesky brother-in-law, or aunt, or whomever, hits you with so many Fox canards that you can't even enjoy your new iPod.

[Earlier editions: here, here, and here.]

I like those flat tax plans from Perry, Gingrich, and the rest of them... those guys really get what wrong with our crazy tax system!

Response: Yeah, those plans do sound simpler than the current mess, that's for sure -- but I'm afraid they're not as simple as you might think. Or as fair. (Dramatic pause, as your audience looks up expectantly from their figgy pudding.)

First off, if we really want everyone to pay one tax rate and we set that rate so as not to lose a lot of revenue, a lot of people's taxes could go up. Remember old Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan... sounds pretty flat, right? Well, over 80% of taxpayers faced higher payments under his flat tax plan. And the ones with the biggest breaks on these flat plans are the richest taxpayers. Rick Perry's flat tax lowers tax payments for multi-millionaires by a cool $1.5 mil.

Now look, we all know every tax change is going to have winners and losers, but I don't think most people want to whack the middle class so the rich can do a lot better.

What's that? You're willing to trade a little more on your tax bill for simplicity?

I hear you but here's the problem. Flat taxes can end up being more complicated than they sound. They often work like national sales taxes -- like in Europe, just a straight 20%, say, on what you buy. But in those cases, they usually exclude basic necessities so now you have to keep track of that, and fight over what get exempted.

Next, to make sure you avoid the Cain problem of some people paying more, both Perry and Gingrich proposed that you could either pay the flat tax or stick with the current system. So, guess what? Now you get to figure out your tax bill both ways so that you can figure out which is cheaper. That sure doesn't sound simpler to me.

Anyway, you know what makes the system we have complicated? It's not the different rates. If that's all it was you could just look your income up in a set of tax tables, find your liability, and be done with it in literally seconds. And that would be true whether we have one rate or a hundred rates.

What complicates things are all the exemptions, credits, and special privileges for different types of income. For a lot of people, you pay a higher rate for money you earn teaching children, like Aunt Debbie does, than for money you make when you sell a stock. That's both unfair and too complicated.

So I say let's add simplicity and fairness by just taxing every dollar as a dollar no matter who earned it on which day of the week. And keep the progressive rates in place, so everyone can pay their fair share.

You liberals love Social Security, but everyone knows it's a dinosaur program, about to go extinct. None of you kids are ever gonna see a dime from it, so you might as well drop it.

Response: That's a mistake a lot of people make, bro, but it's simply not true. In fact, the folks who keep the books on this point out that for about the next 25 years, Social Security can pay full benefits. After that, it will be able to pay 75% of scheduled benefits. And by the way, even with that reduction, those benefits will be higher than they are today (that's because they're scheduled to go up over time, so even with the reduction, they'll be higher than today's).

Still, you've got a point--there's not enough retirement security in America. The real dinosaur in the room, unfortunately, is the guaranteed pension. Fewer and fewer jobs provide that anymore -- it's all 401(k)'s, where you get to bet your future on the stock market-good luck with that these days (note heads nodding in affirmation). In fact, if you think about it, the only guaranteed pension you can depend on is... wait for it... (dramatic pause)... Social Security! And believe it or not, a lot of conservatives want to turn Social Security into a stock market plan-(shake head despondently, with pity for those who don't get what a bad idea this is...).

So we've got to mend it so that it can pay full benefits, not just 75% over the long-term horizon. One thing to keep in mind is that the funding shortfall of the program is just about equal to the high end part of the Bush tax cuts--the part that just goes to households about $250K and that's supposed to expire at the end of 2012. So fixing the program in perpetuity shouldn't be that hard a lift.

And there's other stuff we could do. Did folks know that the tax to fund the program only hits salaries up to $110,000? That means that if you make a million bucks, about 90% of your salary is tax free when it comes to the payroll tax that funds Soc Sec. That ain't right.

So rest assured, with some smart, fair tweaks, the program will be around for many Christmas's to come. The bigger concern is that Social Security on its own won't provide enough income to provide a comfortable retirement for a lot of folks. But it's still a solid foundation for folks to build upon, one that we should be sure to make more solid for generations to come.

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
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ProgressivesWin
TeaParty? We don' need no steenkin' TeaParty
02:09 PM on 12/27/2011
Someone will hopefully do an ad showing Bush and friends pounding on their podiums demanding we all switch over to the tender mercies of Wall Street with our retirement money, then intercut images and clips of the Great Crash of 2008, which he KNEW was coming while he was pushing so hard to up his Wall Street buddies' take of our cash. This is what rethuglycants want for the rest of us.
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Michael Lee Smyth
a nomadic view
03:15 PM on 12/26/2011
I took my son in law by the hand and showed him that his overall tax rate..Federal (all taxes), state and local came up to 12.8%. Us low income folk just got it made. Yeah we haven't seen a steak or lobster in years but we pay a low tax rate. If the Federal flat tax goes up to 20% his tax rate goes up quite a bit higher than 12.8%. When I showed him the actual numbers he began to doubt he had been told the whole story.
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Dede Eagleburger
well behaved women rarely make History...
09:04 AM on 12/26/2011
wow...this happens? I can't ever remember anyone ever mentioning anything about politics at our Christmas get togethers..we just have like so many more important things to talk about than that...!!!!
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signgrrl
typeface geek
07:45 AM on 12/28/2011
all of us are too smart to bring politics up at that table. plus, we have MORE than enough personal stuff to keep us occupied.
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Dede Eagleburger
well behaved women rarely make History...
08:15 AM on 12/28/2011
so true...!!
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thepill
My micro-bio is half-full.
03:08 PM on 12/29/2011
You're very lucky. I have a brother who has become a one-dimensional person ... he can't talk about anything else and he can't tolerate a different opinion. His wife is only slightly more personable, she can at least fake the niceties.

Only solution is not to invite them. Sad.
07:35 AM on 12/26/2011
You can't debate with FOX loonytunes. The best advice is to stop them before they get in the front door. Just lay a rake or two anywhere leading upto your door. Guaranteed a wingnut will find it and step on it, Rakes are like catnip for wingers.
01:08 PM on 12/26/2011
Why do people like you think that anyone who disagrees with you gets all they're facts from FOX news? My experience is that you can't debate anything with someone who gets their "facts" from MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, etc. These people don't do any research on their on and get upset if you quote actual facts because they're "true believers" of anything they are told by the MSM.
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signgrrl
typeface geek
07:46 AM on 12/28/2011
see the posting below yours from william95.
02:01 PM on 12/26/2011
Polls taken of those who watch and don't watch news clearly show that those who watch no news at all have a better knowledge of facts than those who only watch FOX. And that is of itself fact.
Yasmine
the DEFENDER in CHIEF
10:03 PM on 12/25/2011
Mr Bernstein

Here is what people should know and understand. These are FACTS

in 1951 Highest TAX rate was 91% .................NOW it is 35 %

in 1951 POPULATION was 151 million.................NOW it is 308 Million people

It has also been claimed that the FED REVENUE is about the same all through these years

CONCLUSION : Since Population has more than DOUBLED the Constant REVENUE really REALLY MEANS : the FED Revenue has REALLY been decreased by 50% because the population has doubled ....the revenue has dropped to 1/2 of what it was when calculated .. PER CAPITA


PLEASE have your people MAKE A GRAPH of these FACTS .......because a GRAPH IS WORTH 1000 words.

It might help those who have been BRAINWASHED by GOPers TALKING POINTS see the LIGHT.
10:22 PM on 12/25/2011
You are so wrong on many levels. Tax revenues have skyrocketed. Unfortunately, federal spending has skyrocketed even faster.

Your basic presumption is that we are competing against ourselves. No, we are competing against the rest of the world. In 1951, we were one of the few industrialized nations still relatively unscathed from WWII. Now, we are competing with countless industrialized nations, many of whom we subsidized to compete with us.

High taxes means lower productivity, less investment, less take home pay, increases the demands for higher wages, all driving more industry overseas.

We need much less government, less income redistribution by government, and less welfare. Illegal aliens were streaming across the border in the 1990's to take jobs, some paying up to 50-60,000 dollars to do jobs Americans on welfare turned down. Even today so many people would rather collect welfare than work hard. People get social security disability for "stress." Who isn't stressed?

Nope, decrease the government largesse, and overregulation, and our economy will grow again.
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Michael Lee Smyth
a nomadic view
03:20 PM on 12/26/2011
50-60,000 a year in what dream world do you live in?
Corporate welfare and the shipping of the manufacturing sector overseas and south for cheap labor is what caused our current boondoggle. American corporations began buying land in Mexico and Central America in the 50's salivating for when the dream of NAFTA would come true.
12:32 PM on 12/26/2011
Just because the tax rate was 91% in 1951 doesn't mean that anybody actually paid that rate. If you want the actual facts you should be looking at tax revenue (adjusted for inflation) instead. Every time in our history that tax rates have been lowered tax revenues have gone up. We need a flat non-progressive tax with no loopholes and reduced government spending to turn our economy around.
Yasmine
the DEFENDER in CHIEF
03:27 PM on 12/26/2011
You are repeating the phoney talking points of te GOP and it has nothing to do with the REAL FACTS.
Sure no one paid 91z% and that was really too TOO much and UNFAIR but as you insinuate they were always finding some loopholes, and in your Proposal even after all loopholes are TAKEN AWAY , they will FIND a way to put them back in.
Look everybody knows that GOV spending should decrease for everything but also tax revenues should INCREASE too. Otherwise NO DEAL
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jerryengelbach
Working class heritage
09:00 PM on 12/25/2011
My brother-in-law is a bright guy, but you can't convince him with facts, because he has an alternate set of "facts" from his own universe.
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TMS3100
Tea Party has run off with his light saber.
08:40 PM on 12/25/2011
"That's a mistake a lot of people make, bro, but it's simply not true. In fact, the folks who keep the books on this point out that for about the next 25 years, Social Security can pay full benefits."

====================================
Oh My, you are so uniformed. SS is running deficit right now as we speak.
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jerryengelbach
Working class heritage
08:52 PM on 12/25/2011
It's hardly news that Social Security can pay full benefits until 2036. And after that it would be solvent indefinitely if we now raised the income cap on FICA.
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TMS3100
Tea Party has run off with his light saber.
09:03 PM on 12/25/2011
SS is adding the deficit as we speak. There is no trust fund to draw on. With the unchecked growth of SS and Medicare it's going to eat up 15% of the GDP moving forward. In no way are these systems affordable indefinitely.

read this:

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba662
Yasmine
the DEFENDER in CHIEF
10:11 PM on 12/25/2011
jerryengelbach

YES just SCRAP THE CAP on SS ................voila problem solved.!!

and I would also suggest that in order NOT TO HURT the EMPLOYERS ( JOB CREATORS )..........we could LEAVE the % for them as is ie only to the cap.

faved
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Texas Aggie
09:04 PM on 12/25/2011
Your post is an example of the right wing half-truth tactic. What you forgot to mention is that the present surplus is enough to keep SS going for the next 25 years even if there weren't any changes.

That a lie which is half a truth is ever the blackest of lies; - Tennyson
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TMS3100
Tea Party has run off with his light saber.
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TMS3100
Tea Party has run off with his light saber.
09:17 PM on 12/25/2011
Trying reading the news:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2011-01-27-social-security_N.htm
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Grokenspiel
I grok, therefore I spiel
02:50 PM on 12/25/2011
"And there's other stuff we could do. Did folks know that the tax to fund the program only hits salaries up to $110,000? That means that if you make a million bucks, about 90% of your salary is tax free when it comes to the payroll tax that funds Soc Sec. That ain't right."

Actually, the exact figure is $106,800 until 2012, when it will be raised to $110,100. High earners have been getting this sweetheart deal ever since the Social Security tax cap was created, and there's no reasonable justification for it. According to a CBO study, eliminating the tax cap entirely would stabilize Social Security for the next 75 years, with no means testing or other adjustments required.

Naturally, many high earners are opposed to elimating the cap. They want to keep getting their sweetheard deal, of course. They argue that being required to pay the same rate as everyone else is unfair, since their benefits wouldn't increase commensurately. A specious argument. That's like arguing for special express lanes for folks who pay a greater share of highway taxes.

The Social Security tax cap should be eliminated so that high earners start paying their fair share.
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TMS3100
Tea Party has run off with his light saber.
08:51 PM on 12/25/2011
How are high earners getting a good deal? There is maximum limit put on the months SS benefit. Which means the more someone "contributes" to the system. The worse the ROI.
10:34 PM on 12/25/2011
Social Security isn't designed to give you the same lifestyle you've always had. It's meant to prevent seniors from falling too far when the financial ravages of age kick in. At a maximum pay out, most people would live quite well, even if they made milliions each year but lost it all shortly before they reached retirement. This is one of the reasons why the right wing is wrong to call Social Security socialism. The intent may have been socialistic, but the program itself never was. It's paid for insurance.
Yasmine
the DEFENDER in CHIEF
10:17 PM on 12/25/2011
Grokenspeil

SCRAP THE CAP on SS and it is solved.
THERE is a song saying just that..
and you are right..............there are also 232 MILLIONAIRES inthe CONGRESS that is they want Sweetheart deals and that is also why they do not want the MILLIONAIRE SURTAX..
That is also why the big shots on CABLE do not want that either and are trying to SWIFTBOAT the DEMS and make them lose the ELECTION 2012 so the GOPers come back to POWER

LET US MOBILIZE and RE ELECT ALL DEM MAJORITY better than in 2008

YES WE CAN .................!!!


faved
02:33 PM on 12/25/2011
Hey Jared,
Are you "Jed" Bernstein, Livingston High 1966? I was in your class...just curious.
--Mike Bodkin, who was chosen as valedictorian but decided not to speak.
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
02:28 PM on 12/25/2011
"Response: That's a mistake a lot of people make, bro, but it's simply not true. In fact, the folks who keep the books on this point out that for about the next 25 years, Social Security can pay full benefits. After that, it will be able to pay 75% of scheduled benefits."

This is a blatant falsehood. Either the writer is uninformed or just lying. There isn't any actual money in the so called "Social Security Fund" and there never has been. By law the money left over after SS recipients are paid is replaced by interest bearing Treasury instruments. Then the actual money is spent on whatever the government wants to spend it on. At some point in the near future (about 2018) there won't be enough SS money coming in monthly to pay all the SS recipients. When we reach that point the Treasury will have to start cashing in some of those Treasury instruments to make the required payments. So in other words the Treasury takes our actual SS money replaces it with a piece of paper and then sells that piece of paper to us. We get to pay the interest too. What a deal!
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maveet
Needed: DemFems 4 Congress
03:19 PM on 12/25/2011
yep, that's good old uninformed Jared Bernstein, at it again. stick with victoro if you want the real truth.
03:38 PM on 12/25/2011
I guess you're being sarcastic. Do you have anything to refute what I said?
06:00 PM on 12/25/2011
You are correct on how the SS Trust Fund works. In effect the U.S. government has 'borrowed over $2 trillion in excess payroll tax payments over the last 30 years. However, the debt to Social Security should not be considered any different that debt owned by, say the Chinese. There is no reason that either entity should be stiffed by the U.S. government. In fact, I'd go a bit further and suggest that we should enact a surtax on income over $106,000 in order to repay the SS Trust fund. In fact these funds were payroll taxes which fall heavily on middle class and working poor. The borrowed funds were used to support general government operations that should be paid for by a progressive income tax instead of being borne by a workers' retirement fund. It's time to pay it forward for working Americans that deserve some measure of security in their old age.
06:52 PM on 12/25/2011
Finally somebody on this webiste who actually knows what they're talking about. I don't consider the debt we owe China to be any different than the debt owed to SS. The Chinese bought Treasury notes (created from nothing) and will someday cash them in. They'll get their money back plus interest all courtesy of the taxpayer. The Treasury will just print more money to pay back the Chinese which will cause inflation (a form of taxation). The same thing will happen when the Treasury starts cashing in all those government securities in the SS fund. I don't see the logic in repaying the SS fund by taxing US citizens. They should pay it all back by selling assets they acquired with the SS money after they stole it. Say by getting all the bank bailout money back. I know this is a different subject but why should someone who makes 10 times than I do pay more 10 times more tax than I do? That's pure Socialism.
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Medicine13ear
Jesus wore a hoodie.
12:30 PM on 12/31/2011
Two words: Brill! Yunt! F&F
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DennisTheMenace
02:12 PM on 12/25/2011
“Why is it that the simplest and most flexible income tax strategy is NEVER discussed by any politician or the media. It would consist of a tax table- enter your net income and look up the amount you pay. This eliminates the unfareness of the flat tax and provides an easy way for annual adjustment­s to marginal tax rate (those who do not really understand the concept of marginal tax rate -and I bet that includes over 50% of contributo­rs to tax discussion­s on this blog - need not read on.) The idea is that tables can be easily skewed to provide different MARGINAL tax rates on different income ranges. There could be 0 tax on the first 10,000 dollars or the first 50,000. Want an incentive for millionair­es?. Put notches in the table - for example - tax the second million dollars of income at a lower (or even zero) rate than the first. The one-millio­naire will work like crazy to become the two-millio­naire. Tax suitably high income intervals at a high rate. The 50-million­aire will work like crazy to get past that rate to the next low marginal rate interval. All income sources would count and there would be no deductions­. As I said - flexibilit­y and simplicity - and yet nobody is proposing this.
08:17 PM on 12/25/2011
If the tax code was simple, a lot of accountants, H&R Block, etc. would be out of jobs. Their lobbyists see no reason to ask congress to make it simple. The more complicated, the better! Hate mandates? Well, having to hire a professional to do a required yearly tax return is, in essence, a mandate. It's nearly impossible to do a return yourself without purchasing specialized software or hiring an accountant.
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DennisTheMenace
11:28 PM on 12/25/2011
True, but it still is very sspicious that simplefication debates always revolve around a flat tax.
10:08 AM on 12/26/2011
Actually my brother is a CPA and has said for years that he would love to spend less time playing games with IRS *(*(*(*)*)* and more time helping his clients make wise choices to make the best use of THEIR money. The government acts like it has just loaned to the earners until it wants the money back.
Yasmine
the DEFENDER in CHIEF
10:26 PM on 12/25/2011
Dennis

WORTH looking into this idea.
In any case the fact that TAX rates have been cut from 91 % to 35 % means that The RICH got RICHER while UNCLE SAM got POORER by same amount ............so it had to BORROW $$$$$$$$$$$$$ to service the Safety nets of a DOUBLING POPULATION from 1951 to 2010.

So, If you want to know why UNCLE SAM was MADE to BORROW .......look no further than the GOP policy to STARVE the GOV in order to FEED TAX CUTS to the RICHEST.

the US DEBT is the result of GOP TAX CUT policies .

end of story.
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DennisTheMenace
11:31 PM on 12/25/2011
You're spot on. I recognized the Republican agenda to aggrendizs the rich at the start of the Reagon presidency. It has now grown beyond my most pessimistic expectations.
12:45 PM on 12/26/2011
Simple fact: Wall St. and the big banks give about twice as much money (bribes) to the Democrat politicians as they do to Republican politicians. One of Obama's biggest contirbutors has been Golman Sachs.
Brasstack
The truth shall set you free
02:04 PM on 12/25/2011
I just ask them one simple question, "Did you vote for Bush twice?" They either avoid the question or get angry and go away. If they keep blathering on with fox news talking points I quit listening all together.
01:50 PM on 12/25/2011
Are all your moderators Liberals/Socialists? I tried to post a rebuttal of the lies this writer is spreading and my post wasn't published. How do you expect to be taken seriously if you edit posts that are not politically correct?
Brasstack
The truth shall set you free
02:01 PM on 12/25/2011
Maybe if you stopped with the name calling and the Fox news talking points it might help.
02:52 PM on 12/25/2011
Exactly. They must be hard up for news and also confusing Fox with MESSNBC.
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DennisTheMenace
02:15 PM on 12/25/2011
We've already read all your bumper stickers

The gambling of business ruins more lives than the business of gambling.
02:40 PM on 12/25/2011
I don't do bumper sticker or talking points. That's for people that don't have the facts to back up what their saying. Kind of like you.
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mark331blue
Left leaning independent
01:39 PM on 12/25/2011
What a fine little script you've arranged for the sake of a column there, Jared. Like the FAUX news hounds I know are going to sit at the dining room table and listen to me go on ad nauseum about the various tax proposals now seemingly in play, all the while implying how dumb they are for being on the right. I suspect your family instead rolls their eyes at the nerd who thinks they're listening.
03:50 PM on 12/25/2011
You mujst be thinking of MESSNBC, with its tanked ratings there, Mark.
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mark331blue
Left leaning independent
04:27 PM on 12/25/2011
Just going with what the article said there...Tom.
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Medicine13ear
Jesus wore a hoodie.
12:47 PM on 12/31/2011
Lemme save you some time, Tom. I think what you're saying is:

[noun] [verb] MESSNBC [derogatory remark]
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lostnacfgop
Tiny Ripples of Hope from a Blue State's Red spot
01:26 PM on 12/25/2011
We all have at least one of those in our families, Jared. Toughest part about the ones in our family is that they started out pretty progressive, and grew crusty and and narrow as they aged. Good luck with yours this Holiday Season!
12:57 PM on 12/26/2011
By "grew crusty and narrow as they aged" I guess you mean they actually started thinking for themselves instead of believing everything the extremely liberal news media tells them.
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signgrrl
typeface geek
08:12 AM on 12/28/2011
how can someone who obviously considers himself intelligent not get that the news media is NOT LIBERAL. news media is all owned by CORPORATIONS - NOTORIOUSLY NOT LIBERAL. you just blew whatever cred you might, and i mean MIGHT, have had.