Just when you thought our politics couldn't get any weirder, I think Texas Governor Rick Perry just threatened to beat up Ben Bernanke for suggesting another round of quantitative easing.
Responding to a question about the Federal Reserve at a campaign event in Cedar Rapids, Perry said: "If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I don't know what y'all would do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas.
I wish I was making this stuff up, folks... I really do... but I'm not.
(Does this mean the Fed research team needs to add a new variable into their impact models?... i.e., the estimate of the impact of monetary easing on long-term rates, conditional on the Chairman getting a fat lip.)
Perhaps Gov. Perry is just looking over his shoulder at Ron Paul, who's always bashing the Fed (and was a close second to Rep. Bachmann in the Iowa poll), but let's take a look at the economics in play here.
Quantitative easing (QE) is when the Fed "prints money" -- really just bytes in Fed and Treasury electronic bank accounts -- to buy longer term bonds, either Treasuries or mortgage bonds with the goal of lowering interest rates and stimulating more economic activity. They've done two rounds so far and estimates suggest they lowered long term interest rates by somewhere between 60 basis points (0.60 of a percentage point) to more than 1%. (Scholars of intermediate macro: they're pushing out the LM curve!)
Perry went on to complain about "devaluing the dollar in your pocket" based on the notion that if you're printing money, you're creating inflation. And as I and others -- most notably Ken Rogoff -- have argued recently, that would help right now.
First off, faster inflation lowers the real interest rate -- that's the nominal rate minus inflation. So if a business is thinking of building a new factory, and the interest rate on the loan it needs is 4% and inflation is 3%, then the real rate faced by the borrower is 1%. That's especially germane right now with corporations sitting on fat cash reserves. A little more inflation in the system could nudge them off of the sidelines.
More inflation also speeds up the ongoing deleveraging cycle by eroding the real value of households' debt burdens.
That said, a commenter the other day raised a good question about this: how can I, as someone who actively worries about real wage losses, advocate higher inflation, which all else equal, means lower real wages?
It's the "all else equal" part -- lower real rates and more deleveraging means faster growth and lower unemployment, which itself should help boost job and wage growth.
Here's the punchline of all this -- and be clear that I'm not talking about very high inflation, which hurts everyone.
I have no idea if this is where Gov. Perry is coming from, but what's really behind conservatives' view on this issue is that the wealthy get hurt a lot more by inflation than by unemployment, and visa-versa for the middle class. (Remember, I'm talking 2-4% inflation here, nothing higher.)
For those living off of capital (versus labor) income, inflation erodes their assets, their wealth, their capital. So lower real interest rates, faster growth, lower unemployment ain't what gets them out of bed in the morning. That's also why the editorial page of the WSJ, for example, permanently campaigns against anything that would "weaken" the dollar.
Why just last night, I was on the Kudlow show arguing against someone who wanted us back on a the gold standard (!!), the natural conclusion of sentiments like Gov Perry's, and a fine way to cut the Fed off at the knees and ensure deflation at a time like this.
And, of course, the other "punch"line: Ben, you might want to let things settle down a bit before you mosey on down to Texas.
This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.
Arianna Huffington: Why America Is Deeply In Need Of A Good Hedgehog
First his description of QE "Quantitative easing (QE) is when the Fed "prints money" -- really just bytes in Fed and Treasury electronic bank accounts -- to buy longer term bonds, either Treasuries or mortgage bonds".
JAred, you forgot the middle man. Bernanke isn't allowed to buy directly from the Treasury. First Treasury has to sell to one of a hanful of "primary dealers" such as Goldman, who then marks up the merchandize prior to selling it to the Fed. In other words, you forgot about the billions of dollars in basically free money the invesmtnent banks made off of QE2.
Second, QE2 keeps rates so low that savers are pushed into the stock market, and rising stocks are supposed to make everyone feel wealthier than the really are. You know this is the case when the head of the NY Fed states that QE2 kept "asset" (stock") prices hogher thant they otherwise would be, and because Bernanke bragged about QE2 working buy pointing to teh fact that the Russell 2000 index hit an all time high.
Combined with the facts mentioned in the article, such as: Passive investments will become less lucrative, drawing out investors, American employees will be in much higher demand, increasing the salaries, and further increasing the domestic market. Real interest rates will be falling, not only making it easier to keep your house, but increasing it's market value.
Of course, these are all bad things, so I can see why Perry gets violent impulses at the thought of them... (Yes, irony, though if you need to ask, it was wasted)
Get Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner - all the administration economic advisers together.
Go down to Texas. In fact, go to the Governors office.
Show them that Rick Perry is not only a liar, but a punk too.
Let him try to treat Henry Paulson "ugly", and you'll find out just what a coward he is.
All hat. No cattle. All spurs, no sidearm.
You know, the type of pundits who think the phantom "tea party" forced Obama and the Republicans to agree to a two trillion dollar spending gift? I know several people who think the tea party was "successful" and forced that deal. They are mentally ill from watching too much cable "news".
Inflation does not help the "middle class". Quantative Easing does not help the middle class. And Ben Bernanke, up until he stopped printing money, wasn't helping the middle class.
What will help the future non-leveraged middle class is a monetary system that is parallel to real value. One where innovation, hard work, and risk taking are rewarded. The current system simply rewards those who sit on money bags and patent rights without doing any of these things.
Did you ever ask yourself why the top 10 richest people...are the same ones from 30 years ago?! Why...because they are "so smart". Or because the game has been set up to not allow innovators to topple the Static Class?
Because big money has been able to make big money, without taking very big risks. That's what will become more difficult with inflation. The big money will have to go to work.
Economics, to me, is like a (slightly) more respectable equivalent of astrology or phrenology.
It is the responsibility of government to prevent both just as surely as it is for it to refuse to prosecute theft by other means.
Please consider your thoughts when your thoughts get stuck to thinking in slogans. IE "Inflation bad" "Government sponsored theft" etc. These may win elections, but they make make no sense given the situation unless you believe that a very small group of wealthy people should rule this country.
DUH !!!!
Moreover, while you may support the theft directly resulting from inflation, it is theft, nevertheless.
Moreover, consider the unintended consequences of your misguided spewage before you parrot leftist slogans.
Consider what those of us who save will do with our money before the inflation starts to take off. If you have as little imagination as you appear to, look at what people in countries with runaway inflation do with their money.
The depths of Obamaphilistic apologies knows no bounds. Bring back Bill Clinton and balancing the budget!
Do not question. Do not think. Sneer instead. Even if the comment is not very outrageous, make it seem so. Herd mentality. Lead the herd mentality. Hope! Hate! Hope! Hate! Obama is the ONE. O.
Let's see. this time last year I was paying $2.45 a gallon of gas. Now I'm paying $3.45. Other states I travel to I'm paying almost $4/ gallon.
My food bill for the family is up $200 or more a month. Netflix just jumped their prices, etc., etc.
So Mr. Berstein is full of what I clean up when taking my dogs for a walk. And it ain't money.
My airline tickets are up nearly 25% in a year. So let's do some more QE and see if we can get to the Jimmy Carter type inflation and interest rates.
Personally I'd take the Fed chair out back and have a long "discussion" over monetary policy and the real work of the working stiff. "One Big A** Mistake America" and his palls are screwing us over and we don't even get a kiss. No thanks Mr. Berstein!
How much are you paying a pound for chicken, beef or pork compared to 2 years ago?
The reason "inflation" didn't go up for te COLA is housing went down and is still looking for a bottom in many places. Look at what they roll into the CPI.
In real dollars, you and everyone else has been had. The value of your dollars is worth less. Check exchange rates over the past 2 - 3 years.
Yes, you have been had. Welcome to Democrat, liberal, progressive heaven.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/jamie-sipe/rick-perry-third-world-leadership/225768597469263
Economist are like weathermen, they can onlyh guess at what is really coming down the pike. There are no hard fast calculations or economists, and not entrepenuers, would be the richest people in the world.
Don't get any of your economic education from a single source or point of view or you'll only have part of the story. And then make your own judgement calls based on the knowledge.
Inflation helps the gov't because it's the biggest debtor in the world, but it crushes normal Americans. I really could care less if you erode the real value of my student loans--my monthly payment stays the same and my remaining dollars buy a lot less at the grocery.
It's always something.
My fixed income, retired parents are not hurt by the rise of everything from gass, to food to medicine to healthcare. No no problem there.
Kensian economics is killing us and Europe. I'm learning Mandarin so I can communicate with our soon to be new masters.