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Jared Bernstein

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A Dose of Reality

Posted: 09/13/11 01:15 PM ET

I'd like to impose a new fiscal measure. Whenever you say either "America is Greece!" regarding our fiscal debt -- or anything like that -- or "Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme!" you have to send $10 to the US Treasury.

Monday's bond markets have the yield on the 10-year Greek bond at 23.54 and on the US ten-year note at 1.95. So enough about that... OK?

Social Security is pay-as-you-go. Ponzi's scheme was not as it depended on continuous doubling the ratio of contributors to investors (read this wonderful treatment by Social Security's historian).

As the above link concludes:

The first modern social insurance program began in Germany in 1889 and has been in continuous operation for more than 100 years. The American Social Security system has been in continuous successful operation since 1935. Charles Ponzi's scheme lasted barely 200 days.

Now, let's just think for another minute about this pay-as-you-go process.

For much of its long and successful history, today's workers have financed the benefits of yesterday's workforce. When demographic factors have led to a funding imbalance, as was recognized in the Reagan years (!), adjustments had to be made to extend full solvency.

Such adjustments once again need to be made and they are not daunting. In fact, the costs of the high-end Bush tax cuts are about analogous to the shortfall in Social Security over 75 years, as both are about 0.8% of GDP. And do not be misled by the insolvency arguments: full benefits can be paid through 2036, at which point the trust fund is exhausted. But at that point, courtesy of pay-as-you-go, the program can still pay 75% of scheduled benefits.

Now, forgive me if I get a little bit spiritual: as I've written before, Social Security was designed to "create a strong link between the aged and the working-age population -- today's workers create the capital, the technology, and the wealth that will support tomorrow's generation. Embedded in its formulas is the notion that those of us who came before, whether they were teachers, accountants, homemakers, mail carriers, barbers, cashiers, or lawyers, have built up the productive capacity of our nation.

When the children of these workers come of age (along with new immigrants), they will earn their living from this infrastructure while also making their own contributions. As they do so, we will peel off some portion of their earnings to provide pensions for their forebears, just as those forebears did for their own predecessors... Social Security is thus an elegant collaborative solution to a universal challenge."

Maybe some people don't want to accept the fact that we're all in this together, but... we are. So unless you want to be sending a crisp Alexander Hamilton into the Treasury, don't be talkin' any of this stuff anymore... capice!?

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
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SoylentGreenIsPeople
Hmmm........Tastes Like Chicken !
12:10 PM on 09/14/2011
TAX CUTS for upper income wealthy equals the Social Security Shortfall. MORE tax cuts will follow to damage it more.

“In comparing the high-incom­­­­e tax cuts to the Social Security shortfall, we wanted to illustrate the hypocrisy of Members of Congress who argue that the tax cuts are affordable but Social Security is not, even though their cost is the same.

http://www.offthechartsblog.org/mcardle%E2%80%99s-still-wrong-on-social-security-and-high-end-tax-cuts/
08:57 PM on 09/13/2011
In practice, ss has turned out to be strongly redistributionist, but only because of its Ponzi game aspect, in which each generation takes more out than it put in. Well, the Ponzi game will soon be over, thanks to changing demographics, so that the typical recipient henceforth will get only about as much as he or she put in (and today's young may well get less than they put in).


As I recall, there was a story the other day that NOW 1.75 people pay FICA for each recipient. In the 30s it was SEVERAL HUNDRED payees per recipient!!
08:55 PM on 09/13/2011
I don't understand the argument people are making about SS and Treasuries. Because SS is in Treasuries, and not cash I guess, it’s unlikely that we’ll ever see that money again.

But Treasuries are regarded among the most secure investments on earth. They’re backed by the “full faith and credit of the US.” You don’t have to believe that, of course, but I don’t see how you can think that equities markets are somehow more secure. When there is trouble in the markets, money floods out of equities and into Treasuries, because they’re considered safe. People in the market believe that they will be paid back the money they deposit into Treasuries. That’s why the return is low, the risk is low. If you invest in market funds, take a look at how much of those funds are in Treasuries. Chances are, the funds that make up your 401k are investing, in part, in Treasuries. If you invest in individual stocks, look at the company’s statements and see how much money they have in Treasuries. Why are the Treasuries you invest in with your personal retirement funds more secure that the Treasuries the SS administration invests in? If the best corporate money managers on earth believe in the full faith and credit of the US, believe that they’ll be paid back what they’ve deposited into Treasuries, what do you know that they don’t?
08:28 PM on 09/13/2011
meet the press 2007


RUSSERT: Well, Senator Obama had said that he had -- would have everything on the table for Social Security [SIC!!!] , and now he’s limited that, as well. So all of them can be scrutinized. But I think, Chris, the important thing for voters who are watching this, it’s more than just a game of primary versus the general election. They’re waiting for leadership.

MATTHEWS: OK.

RUSSERT: And if you’re going to make tough decisions as a president, you have to answer tough questions. What are you going to do? Show us how you’re going the lead us. Everyone knows Social Security, as it’s constructed, is not going to be in the same place it’s going to be for the next generation, Democrats, Republicans, liberals, conservatives.

MATTHEWS: It’s a bad Ponzi scheme, at this point. Yeah


[WTF???????? IS MATHEWS SAYING???]



Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2011/09/13/flashback-2007-tim-russert-and-chris-matthews-agree-social-security-b#ixzz1Xsbek5xS
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OMEGA MAN
A wise man learns by the mistakes of others, a foo
05:03 PM on 09/13/2011
Considering how popular the "Social Security is a Ponzi scheme" idea has become, it's probably good that there are clear explanations that the idea is false. Part of me feels though that it's like explaining that the earth isn't flat. Even bothering to explain it's wrong tends to give the idea some legitimacy. Look, a controversy! 2+2=5 but many experts disagree. Debate on Sunday morning talk shows.

There are certainly potential problems with Social Security, like demographic shifts, or the political danger that the general fund (whose contributions are somewhat progressive) will steal the money from Social Security. But calling it a Ponzi scheme is no different from saying 2+2=5.

This is getting repetitive. FDR knew what he was doing when he insisted on using payroll taxes to fund it, and when he signed the bill providing for that said something like "there, now they can never take it away".
06:33 PM on 09/13/2011
One the baby has the teet... it CRIES when you take it out.
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unionave
Old Codger
05:03 PM on 09/13/2011
The Republicans practice disrespect and insulting so much it has become and acceptable thing for them to do . Calling Social Security anything other than what it is intended for is an insult to the German people , who invented it , and every nation that copied it . It was invented during a long economic depression of the late 1880's and every nation that copied it has done so during depressions .

The Republicans assaulted the program from day one and as usual they have repeatedly called it defamatory names and referred to it as something other than what it is . It was not designed strictly as a senior retirement program as the Republicans morphed it in to as a tactic to set a divide between the senior and the youth . It does retire seniors while making jobs available for the youth . That was the reason the French youth rioted when Sarkozy suggested raising the retirement age . SS is as much for the youth as it is for seniors . The working youth pay taxes and spend while the seniors pay taxes and spend . Exactly what a sick economy needs .

There wasn't anything wrong with SS during the Reagan years and isn't today . They just wanted to increase the amount in the SSA account to hide over spending which is continued today . Which means the reported deficit is a fictitious number .

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/assets.html
05:15 PM on 09/13/2011
Let's see if I can walk you through this...

Social Security if funded by TAXES, correct?
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unionave
Old Codger
06:54 PM on 09/13/2011
Exactly ! The same kind of taxes we give to Wall Street when investing in annuities . The programs are exactly the same . Just different managers . One manager gets enormous salaries and huge bonuses and one does not . One the employer also pays in to the fund . The other does not . One loans it's surplus to the US government and earns Trillions of dollars in interest which is also added to the retirement amount of the workers . The other does not .

Do you know of a nation where no one pays taxes ? Only a thief tries to live off what others pay taxes for .
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ashleypell
You don't need a PhD
04:50 PM on 09/13/2011
Of course the opponents of SS don't believe we are all in this together. They are adherents to Ayn Rand's philosophy of moral and responsible individualism without the moral and responsible part. Greed is good and it is safer to steal from those who can’t defend themselves.
05:05 PM on 09/13/2011
We aren't in this all together.

It's another relic of the 1930s, can't meet its obligations, must grab even more from those working.

If we were in this together, we would sell our collective assets to put the program on a sound footing.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ashleypell
You don't need a PhD
05:30 PM on 09/13/2011
Middle and working class prosperity has been stolen by a rich capitalist class that cares nothing for the country. Greed is good is their code. As long as we let them get away with it our country will have solvency and poverty problems. There is nothing the right is saying that will address these problems. It is all give more money to the rich. Cut government so more working people suffer the consequences. The program is on a firm footing until 2036 and would be much longer than that if we raised the cut off.
05:17 PM on 09/13/2011
Incorrect.

Repubs believe social issues should be resolved at the local level, and by freedom of choice on when/where/how to give.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ashleypell
You don't need a PhD
05:32 PM on 09/13/2011
Lets go back to Jim Crow, debtors prisons, and stocks on the court house lawn.
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Reaganite60
Don't tread on me.
04:39 PM on 09/13/2011
The strain on Paul A. Samuelson's (a proponent of Keynes) upbeat assumptions that a growing economy and expanding population would give future retirees something for nothing in perpetuity were about to be increased past the breaking point even by politicians who couldn't resist buying votes with ever more benefits to current seniors. As John Attarian notes in his book Social Security False Consciousness and Crisis:

"Reflecting this hubris, benefits were recklessly expanded, by 13 percent in 1968, 15 percent in 1969, 10 percent in 1971 and a staggering 20 percent, in a political bidding war between President Richard Nixon and congressional Democrats, in 1972, for a total benefit surge in 1967-972 of 71.5 percent. Annual cost-of-live-adjustments (COLAs) insulating benefits from inflation, also enacted in 1972, began in 1975."

The result was a fourfold assault on the system. Higher benefits and longer lives for those already collecting, lower births and fewer economic prospects for those paying in.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ashleypell
You don't need a PhD
04:53 PM on 09/13/2011
Not something for nothing. We have paid into this system for all our working lives. Don't dare say something for nothing. We have paid.
05:06 PM on 09/13/2011
You know that your money was spent as soon as it came in, right? You haven't been "paying in" you have been "paying out." I am a fan of SS, I just get worried when so many people say things that sound like its a savings account - its not. This money is really no different from any other taxes you have been "paying into" your whole life.
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OMEGA MAN
A wise man learns by the mistakes of others, a foo
05:07 PM on 09/13/2011
FDR knew what he was doing when he insisted on using payroll taxes to fund it, and when he signed the bill providing for that said something like "there, now they can never take it away".
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Reaganite60
Don't tread on me.
04:39 PM on 09/13/2011
Like all Ponzi schemes, the winners in Social Security were those who came in early. The first retirees did get something for nothing. The Greatest Generation made out even better. They were the first generation relieved of the need to support their own parents and they came in early enough to fully collect fully on their own contributions. Many of the boomers are not going to be as lucky for three reasons. Not only is the system running out of money, but many of them failed to save or are over invested in illiquid real estate. Add in those who made decisions in their own personal lives that frayed social ties. Many didn't have children who can help them as they age. Others don't have good relationships with their children and grandchildren because of issues of abandonment and divorce.

As a result, for many boomers the retirement years are looking far from secure. Things are also grim for those under 50, as they will certainly not get out what they paid in; but they are in peak earning years and have time to adjust. As for anyone under age 30, many of them have inherited the worst of all possible worlds: the need to have to save for their own retirement, a terrible job market, student loans for degrees in fields that aren't economically viable, and a government that will compel them to bail out their elders. Samuelson's incredibly optimistic assumptions must read like a fairy tale to them.
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SoylentGreenIsPeople
Hmmm........Tastes Like Chicken !
04:58 PM on 09/13/2011
It is ironic. It is like a protection scheme: "Nice fund you got there. Too bad if sumpm wuz to happen to it." The very people who are warning that the money may not be paid are the ones who are threatening not to pay it. In addition, they carry a cross and drape themselves in the flag, while they are undermining the nation.
05:19 PM on 09/13/2011
'Undermining the nation', uh, no, just want the freedom to solve and give at the local level.
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jeffrey678
You don't happen to make it. You make it happen.
04:31 PM on 09/13/2011
"Experience from both Chile and the United Kingdom ... indicates that a decentralized system of individual accounts involves significant administrative expenses. Both Chile and the United Kingdom have decentralized, privately managed accounts, and administrative costs in both countries have also proven to be surprisingly high."

This is the Paper Read it for Yourself,

http://www.iza.org/de/calls_conferences/pensionref_pdf/panel_stiglitz.pdf
04:39 PM on 09/13/2011
Why on earth would I want a 'decentralized system' managed by the gub'ment?

I want the FREEDOM to manage my own money, myself.
04:25 PM on 09/13/2011
Anyone who refers to a social security "trust fund" should have to pay $10 to the treasury. The existence of a fully funded trust fund is one of the biggest deceptions our politicians have pulled on us. The "trust fund" consists entirely of treasury bonds (ie the money has been borrowed by the general fund and spent on other items). In order for any "trust funds" to be used, the bonds have to be redeemed. Since we do not have a surplus in our national budget, all the funds to redeem the bonds have to be borrowed. Last year SS benefits paid out exceeded payroll taxes by $40 billion. This deficit will only increase as more babyboomers retire. If there were a cash filled trust fund, why do you think Obama said the SS checks may not go out back in August if the debt ceiling were not raised??
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Evelyn
04:47 PM on 09/13/2011
I suppose you think that the entire modern banking system is also some sort of fraud? You put money in the back, and omg, it's not really there! It has been borrowed by other people! Call the police! And you must also think that insurance companies are basically no better than thieves, since they promise to pay people money when they die, but they don't hold all that cash on hand! They loaned it to people who loaned it to people, and so on.

And I'm sure you worry all the time about the fact that all the other countries of the world who also hold US Treasury bonds (along with the millions of American companies and individuals who hold them) are holding nothing but pieces of paper!

In reality, a treasury bond is not nothing. It is an investment like any other. Did you really think that the government should just pile up dollars forever, waiting to use them?
05:23 PM on 09/13/2011
Putting money in a bank is my choice. Contributing to SS is forced.

First off, I didn't want them to TAX me in the first place. But since they have, pile up versus spend and borrow and now we pay interest, I'd take pile up.
04:23 PM on 09/13/2011
If our elected officials would have kept their sticky fingers out of the Social Security cookie jar we would not be in the shape we are in today. The greedy thieves could not let that money sit there and be managed for its original purpose...supplemental retirement income. No, they had to take a fund doing well and drain it with all kinds of other self serving programs. Thank you Representatives and Senators for screwing up something that might have been good.
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SoylentGreenIsPeople
Hmmm........Tastes Like Chicken !
04:20 PM on 09/13/2011
Randiansociopaths believe SS is a Ponzi scheme, mainly because they are convinced it is a bad deal forced on them by an oppressive government(of course, they never run all the numbers) and/or it forces them to be a halfway decent human being.

They find both equally distasteful.
04:43 PM on 09/13/2011
Not so. The problem is it is a TAX at the federal level.

I want the FREEDOM to manage MY money, myself.

As for giving, again, I accomplish that at the local level through church, and habitat for humanity.

Repubs are decent too, we just want individual freedom to live, work, and give as WE see fit. Oh, and we also understand there isn't a money fairy.
04:07 PM on 09/13/2011
I just love all this..." We're all in this together! "
Does anyone really buy into that anymore.
A few weeks ago we had the catastrophic debt ceiling crisis.....I for one, felt NOT in it, not in it at all. We're taught, told, punished and forced to live with our " credit issues ", live within our means...and those means are getting leaner and leaner, for " most " of us. Decisions we have to make, purchases we don't make, vacations we don't take.
But the congress, senate, the President even, squabbling like five year olds over who gets the shiny red firetruck, and then closing down the house while they all run off for their vacation time, yeah, well earned!!
They are like a pack of rabid politicians falling over one another in some power struggle that benefits no one!
How dare them discuss or even put social security on the table...that belongs to " us ", yes, " we the people..." oh, that's right, they already have touched it!!!
They've taken every single penny we've given them and put us in hole we can't climb out of thinking somebody somewhere is going to throw us a magic rope to climb out.
I know, I know, a few more years, maybe things will be looking better. The thing is, for many of us, a few years is now, this is our life and we all only have so long to live it.
04:25 PM on 09/13/2011
E pluribus unum is inscribed on much of the money we use.

Out of many, one.

We are one nation, under God, indivisible - with liberty and justice for all.

For all these folks who want what the 'Founding Father's" wanted, they sure have a funny way of selectively looking at things.
04:44 PM on 09/13/2011
Hmmm, I must have missed the part in there about TAXES!
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
23000Days
Life: Tragedy for feelers, Comedy for thinkers.
04:27 PM on 09/13/2011
Well said. Proud to be your first fan!
04:01 PM on 09/13/2011
There are those in our country for years that have wanted to dismantle the middle class. They found their mechanism in the form of the Tea Party. Sadly, they are most certainly are winning this battle.
04:16 PM on 09/13/2011
I'm middle class, and they aren't 'dismantling' me.