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Jared Bernstein

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What the Heck Is Going on With the Stock Market?

Posted: 08/04/11 05:01 PM ET

What the heck is going on with the stock market?!?

The DOWs down 2.5% (almost 300 pts) as we speak, though it's coming back a bit (I said a half-hour ago this was an overcorrection -- shoulda put in a call option!).

I get it -- kind of. The economy's lousy, the political system is too, the European debt crisis is dragging on if not deepening (I'm doing my part to help by eating a Greek yogurt as we speak), and the debt deal apparently hasn't pleased anyone.

But all of this was known, except for the latter--and the threat of default is behind us now, at least for awhile. Maybe investors are reading stuff like this (a proposal to make the "dollar of debt ceiling for a dollar of cuts" the new standard) and getting nervous that political dysfunction is now enshrined in the system.

Equity markets didn't like the jobless claims report, because, hey: who knew the job market was stalled??!

Sorry -- don't mean to get so dyspeptic. It's not unusual for the market to be manically depressive and psychotraumatically challenged at a time like this. But we really need some good news. And that may not happen until we get some good policy, a whole lot better than what's been coming out of this town of late.

Update: Um...did I say "call"...I meant "put"-DJIA falling again, down over 400 pts, 2:30.

DJIA, circa 12:45pm (Source: Bloomberg)
2011-08-04-djia.png

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gary Dorrington
12:47 PM on 08/05/2011
This is how the stock market is designed to work. The middle class investors lose their shirts and their pensions, and the fat cats have a spending spree at next week's fire sale.
12:09 PM on 08/05/2011
I love all these posts that say all we have to do is spend more money on infrastructure/construction jobs and all will be well.

First of all, we tried that with the stimulus, remember? How'd it work, Einsteins? Also, by definition those jobs would be temporary.

Secondly, what about the 80% + of the unemployed who are not in the "infrastructure" business (like me!)?
12:14 PM on 08/05/2011
probably would've been worse without it--should've been bigger with less tax cuts. Old bridge where I live totally restored--gorgeous, but if no structural changes in the economy--everything stays on the same trajectory.
Market is tanking again.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
hamp70
10:42 AM on 08/05/2011
Hey! Why is it that only the have nots see the stock market going down as a bad thing. You can bet on it that there are a lot of haves that were on the short side of this down day. If you are not going to learn to play the game, and it is a game, in both directions you should not play. It is like boxing with one hand tie behind your back. It is like being in a poker game and you are the sucker. The non suckers own the press and advise you (the sucker) to only buy. Good luck sucker!
10:12 AM on 08/05/2011
For one, I believe this was an overdue market correction, and necessary, I might add. Stock prices have been on a hyperinflationary cycle for a couple years, and were getting dangerously close to the over-priced bubble levels that contirbuted to the massive recession.
When the Dow starts to creep above 10,000, i get real nervous, coz bad things are coming. Stock investors are sheep who predictably foillow the herd instinct like lemmings over the cliff, often with extremely unfortunate consequences.
It certainly appears that no sustainable lessons have been learnt from the recession, and most just want more of the same. Be careful what you wish for!
Eppur Si
One of the majority who are not part of the "99%"
09:02 AM on 08/05/2011
I assume that "good policy coming out of Washington" is code for higher taxes on the "rich" (i.e., businesses). Yeah, that's what the stock market is waiting for. Higher taxes on businesses.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TN60
I Hope You'll Dance
08:55 AM on 08/05/2011
You know what ? I don't care a rat's @ss if the whole market keeps coming down and crashes !

That's not how a sane person should think, but I just don't care....I don't have any money in the stock market or any other market except for the small bank I do business with in this burg.

No one is going to bring charges, ever, against the BANKSTERS. No one is going to hold them accountable of their casino trading funds. They just give themselves more and more in salaries, bonuses and tax dodges. They are not loaning money, and no one has really regulated them and they are back to their old way of "too big to fail"

Corporations are either just sitting on their piles of gold or investing overseas for slave labor. Then they use those tax free dollars in off shore banks so not to pay a dime of taxes.

Republicans are daring anyone to raise taxes on their chosen few or to stop the corporate welfare of subs tidies for record profit companies, instead of helping the middle class and working poor.

Let it all go, and maybe we can pick through the ashes and rebuild this country into something besides the "trickle down" we've lived through for 30 years of failure/
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gary Dorrington
01:04 PM on 08/05/2011
"Let it all go, and maybe we can pick through the ashes and rebuild this country into something besides the "trickle down" we've lived through for 30 years of failure."

That would be CHANGE I could believe in.

F&F
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TN60
I Hope You'll Dance
03:14 PM on 08/05/2011
Thanks, Gary, appreciated. You do realize we both may be a little off our rocket pad, don't you ? LOL

I just get so tired of the politics and power grabbers and these insane anarchists that some actually voted for, or not !
08:52 AM on 08/05/2011
Our problems are easy to fix, if the agenda in Washington was to FIX THEM....but that's not the agenda.

For example, put the top tax bracket back to Clinton rates, a mere 3% hike. Take that $700 billion in revenue and earmark it for $700 billion in infratsructure projects. That's millions of jobs created, good paying job. That's more tax revenues from pay checks. That's a giant drop in unemployment. That's a giant infuse of cash into local economies.

Again, this isn't rocket science.
tnjr
Humor gets me through the day
11:42 AM on 08/05/2011
Hello Mr. Rocket Sciencetist, you said "put the top tax bracket back to Clinton rates, a mere 3% hike. Take that $700 billion in revenue and earmark it for $700 billion in infratsruc­ture projects. That's millions of jobs created, good paying job" That almost as much as the Obama stimulus package. How many millions of jobs did that create? Wasn't it supposed the stop unemployment, but unemployment kept rising, now to 9.2%. You just proved how "tax the rich" doesn't work, keep drinking the class warfare kool-aid.
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FoxIslander
Fox Island...no relation to Fox News
12:06 PM on 08/05/2011
...the majority of the Obama stimulus was in tax cuts. drink your I-desperately-hope-to-be-filty-rich-one-day coolaid yourself.
12:34 PM on 08/05/2011
First of all, 40% of Obama's stimulus was tax cuts, and of course those tax cuts did nothing to create jobs, as they never do.

Second, the bulk of what was left went to local and state governments to keep the basic systems (cops, firefighters,teachers) afloat, which it did.

Finally, I suggested repealing the insane Bush tax cuts that were supposed to be temporary, remember?

Bottom line is anyway you cut it, the problem is 80% of all the wealth over the last 10 years has gone to the upper 1/2 of 1%. The middle class has been crushed, the poor are now beyond help....and the top 400 tax payers own more wealth then the bottom 150,000,000 Americans.

So since businesses clearly are sitting on their trillion in profits with no reason to grow or hire, and the Middle Class can't spend because they are either broke or way too scared of losing their jobs tomorrow, that leaves government.

Repeal the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy, which won't hurt them one bit and won't effect 99% of Americans, and earmark that $700 billion for infrastructure jobs. Did you know there are more than $800billion in water works infrastructure jobs alone stalled because there's no funding?

The problem with ideologs like yourself is that you aren't interested in solutions, just honoring your ideology. If a cure for cancer required a modest tax, you'd vote no. That's the danger of a cult like modern day conservatism.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
v98max
Businesses create jobs like DJs create records.
02:30 AM on 08/05/2011
Well here's my unfalsifiable theory, which is as good as anyone else's. The teabag Republicans are an Astroturf movement, bankrolled and incited by old fashioned, moneybag Republicans.

Money baggers want the Treasury to pay higher interest rates because their names are on the checks and the negative real interest on 5-year TIPS is just unacceptable. Also, every business that goes out of business has a going out of business sale. Instead of buying up Borders' shelves and light fixtures, the big fish on Wall Street are buying up shares. Money baggers like recessions just fine and they just engineered a double dip.
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2pence
ignorance should not be contagious
09:12 AM on 08/05/2011
You have some very sound points.
F&F
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kamact
Market Observer
01:41 AM on 08/05/2011
This is caused by a small percent of big "investors" who need to exit their short positions at a profit
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Peter Combs
Amused by the illogical..no, NOT a Republican
01:21 AM on 08/05/2011
Ahh...you should have bought PUTS...I did at 11:00 Am EST..on Bidu, Apple and Google....closed them up at 3:50 PM..

Until our Governments (from around the world) gets it's collective acts together...things will keep wobbling.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MUDPUPPY
12:59 AM on 08/05/2011
It is always amusing to hear people with no knowledge of psychiatry throw round psychology terms and less knowledge about economy expound about economy. These self appointed "experts" ARE good for a laugh.
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keithincali
Repeal DOMA!
03:26 AM on 08/05/2011
I'm an expert at laughing.
12:00 AM on 08/05/2011
Dear Mr. Bernstein, You would agree that the stock market drop is a good lead indicator of what investors think is going to happen - lower job growth, lower GDP growth and political gridlock. If it continues its current trajectory, with fear as its primary driver, the counter will become an express necessity - optimism.By virtue of a "FEMA equivalent financial disaster" even the craziest voices will surrender to wiser counsel that advises direct Government spending money directly through jobs leading to more consumer demand. I am convinced that Mr. Obama will get unstoppable momentum behind his $ 500 B Transportation Bill if he were to make the case for it this month.Congress will approve this Bill because they will not have a counter argument.Once again, these jobs can never be outsourced and will put the < $ 40,000/Year salaried worker category back to work. It is time to list out all the airports, seaports, railroads, bridges and highways that need work and shout about them from every hill and mole hill of America - to borrow from Dr. King and MSNBC Anchor Chris Mathews. Like the Congress tamely signed off unanimous consent for the FAA workers today, Congress will buckle under the onslaught of pressure from their constituents, media and funding sources. Demand and Political will are the only reasons CEOs are looking for to hire 2 M people right now leveraging the $ 2 T in cash that they have.
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FoxIslander
Fox Island...no relation to Fox News
12:10 PM on 08/05/2011
"the stock market drop is a good lead indicator of what investors think is going to happen - lower job growth, lower GDP growth and political gridlock"

It used to be...but when selloffs are determined in milliseconds by mutual fund algorithms...not so much anymore. It's nothing but a big slot machine.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Under Fed yet Fed Up
Always great distaste for both political parties
10:00 PM on 08/04/2011
We'llhave to wait for the next president before we see a genuine improvement in the economy. Even if (and it's a big if) Obama has a good idea, it will never get through the House.
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Cowoak
Fishing 3812 miles southeast of Dutch Harbor.
10:46 PM on 08/04/2011
Obama had a super majority; the only thing he could muster was healthcare. This guy just kept tax cheat geithner on treasury secretary. He doesn't have any idea what he is doing.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wonmean
University of Michigan Class of 2010
11:52 PM on 08/04/2011
I think he's just going with the flow.
Even though he promised he wouldn't.
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dcflush
The nickname is about poker, not politics
12:05 AM on 08/05/2011
stimulus that saved and created millions of jobs. financial reform that was desperately needed. credit card reform. pell grant additions. repealed dadt, start ii... many many others.

Oh yeah, and he passed health care reform based on Republican ideas. Health care reform, if you might realize has been stated as a crucial need by every President for decades.

Thanks for playing though.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
freedomny
99% = TBTF
09:59 PM on 08/04/2011
JB- what is going on is that the wise Americans no longer have faith in the people who run our government. I really believe that the majority of Americans think the government is corrupt. And, I agree.
tnjr
Humor gets me through the day
11:54 AM on 08/05/2011
Totally agree, only tea party seems to be worrying about the future. Here's a story about NY Gov. Cuomo wanting to investigate pols steering money to non-profits that they have an interst in. http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/editorials/the_nonprofit_crackdown_pn21M1mV5Ix0P3iMlfNFlK
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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JuergenHartl
Social-Democrat by conviction
09:59 PM on 08/04/2011
Maybe Wall Street will wake up and realize they bought the wrong product (GOP).
What is going on? Simple - there is NO demand in the private sector and the little the Government can do has been taken away, what is left is a flat economy at best. The 'glorious' debt ceiling bill will cost thousands of jobs and take about 1.5% out of the GDP.
tnjr
Humor gets me through the day
11:50 AM on 08/05/2011
Wall Street woke up, they say that the deficiet reduction plan is just smoke and mirrors and as soon as the debt ceiling was raised, Obama called for more taxes and the infrastructure bank. We saw how well the shovel ready jobs stimulus didn't do anything except raise unemployment. Wall Street works on numbers and projections, not kool-aid drinking. So when Obama said tax and spend, Wall Street said sell, sell sell.