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Jared Bernstein

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Stress Tests You Haven't Read About

Posted: 03/15/2012 8:06 am

As reported by the New York Times, most of the big banks passed the so-called "stress tests" administered to them by the Federal Reserve.

Developed in the wake of the financial crisis, the examination is intended to assess how banks will fare under weak economic conditions. The Fed looked at whether banks would have enough capital to weather a peak unemployment rate of 13 percent, a 21 percent drop in housing prices and severe market shocks, as well as economic slowdowns in Europe and Asia.

Given the success of the tests on assessing the health of the nation's largest banks, various other institutions decided to embrace the model. Here are some early results.

Markets Surprised by Bill Simmons' Stress Test Outcome

Friends of Bill Simmons were just as surprised as he was when data from the Federal Reserve revealed that his relationship with Julie Lasker failed their stress test.

The couple had been going out since 2011Q2 and going into the stress test, Bill spoke confidently to friends of solid reserves of trust, listening/sharing skills, and satisfying relations in... um... all areas. Markets were particularly confident following recent quarterly reports wherein Bill alluded to "three little words" having been said by both sides of the merger.

The Fed's test, however, proved surprising rigorous. Simulations included subjecting Julie to Bill's:

- Not listening to her as she described work-related conflicts

- Favorable allusions to his last girlfriend

- Buying her big earrings when she likes small ones

- Repeatedly leaving the toilet seat up

Despite earlier reports regarding the stability of Bill and Julie's relationship, reserves proved inadequate for Julie to withstand the full spate of stressors administered by the Fed. Neither could be reached for comment but late trading suggested friends are divesting shares in the couple, or at least in Bill.

Cute Kitten Fails Stress Test -- Will Likely be Returned to Shelter

The children of DC-based economist Jared Bernstein were stunned to discover that their new little black kitten, Ivy, failed her stress test and may be headed back to shelter from which they adopted her only weeks ago.

Bernstein reported that the he was unable to give the kitten passing grades under stressful simulations including:

- Continuing to get kick her nasty litter outside the box and all over the floor of his bathroom

- Running around like a banshee at midnight and biting his toes through the blanket whenever he even slightly wiggles them

- Lightly scratching his face at 6:30AM when she wants to be fed

- Running off with those nice little earbuds he keeps on his nightstand

The children's shock at the failure was compounded by their claim that Bernstein appeared to love the little scamp, often, according to them, talking to it in a cutesy voice.

"It's true," Bernstein admitted, when reached for comment. "I continue to love little Ivy and we will all miss her. But the stress test has enabled me to test the depth of that love and it turned out to be shallower than I'd thought."

President Obama Squeaks Through Stress Test With His Base

In a widely anticipated result that was too close a call for markets to accurately price, the American left gave President Obama passing marks in a stress test designed to test just how far he could push them.

"It was touch and go, but we had to consider the alternative" said the Left, following release of the test results. Simulations included:

- Press briefings where the President taunts enviros with charts about all the oil and gas this administration has drilled and fracked

- Inviting Occupy Wall St. representatives to a White House summit on income inequality, wherein he announces another round of bail outs for the banks

- Schmoozing with Wall St. fat cats to fund his Super Pac

- Pivoting back to deficit reduction, praising Europe for their austerity measures, and telling American families how the government's got to tighten its belt in hard times, just like they do.

While some members of the professional left argued for failing the President, a majority of others pushed back, at which point the first group splintered off and formed a new movement disavowing any association with their former comrades.

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
 
 
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BigBearcatBill
This is the real Bearcat - a Binturong
10:11 PM on 03/18/2012
Anyone written a book or made a documentary on the Bush years breakdown of the fed auditing system that kept banks in order? Did they take a long vacation or get laid off or paid off to look the other way or what? Something really went wrong to all of a sudden need to give them a few $trillion wouldn't you say? Remember the first one given by Bush and his terminator equivalent Treasury Secretary was shoved down Congress throat in about two days without any details worth snot about how they got so "poor" all of a sudden! Nobody has really investigated and backtracked through all the mess ups the auditors could ahve caught and others that they may not have been able to catch....for some reason. Makes you wonder if we will ever get full honesty...haven't seen much since Pesident Carter.
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IsotelusMaximus
Under the Radar
01:05 PM on 03/18/2012
The fed and the U.S. government should be stress tested.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
free reign
My country tis of thee!
06:47 AM on 03/18/2012
Jared, (& viper et al) I am thankful for your most all-encompassing insight. Since a Merrill highest up told me how reckless and dangerous, were the actions of Greenspan over 13 years ago, and my studying the moves of Mark Mobius, I clearly see how the dereliction of duty in the Fed's acccess to OUR held money, to OUTPRICE, OUR, life's necessities, has ruined and decimated our buying power, and exposed our property. I saw how Asian mkts, mtg mkt racketeering, and uncontrolled speculation, created a debt machine, USING TRILLIONS OF OUR MONEY.
More egregious, to the point of treason, is the granting of money driven control of Washington to NON-CITIZEN, UNTAXED interests buying away tax responsibilty, outsourcing, offshoring, AND AGENTS OT TO DEFUND AND FURTHER WEAKEN OUR PROTECTIONS OF COUNTRY AND PERSONAL PROPERTY.
WE ARE, considering other options besides a property pirating, perpetuated capitulation, to Wall St.
We need individuals that have the constitution to, and that can and will define the embedded lecherous despots, that have their claws on this great country.
I pray GREG SMITH will be invited to the White House. Immelt and Dimon have worn out there welcome, FOR US.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
frank1946
Tell the Truth
01:24 AM on 03/18/2012
Hey Boss, I need a raise, you can Borrow the $$$ !

Did you Pay the Credit Cards, Honey ?

FY 2013 looks grim for the Federal Government.

Be careful out there !
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Kache
Citizens, Unite!
06:55 PM on 03/15/2012
Would I have enough "capital to weather a peak unemployment rate of 13 percent, a 21 percent drop in housing prices and severe market shocks, as well as economic slowdowns in Europe and Asia."

Nope. I flunked.
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LoneTree
Liberty is more precious than life.
02:38 PM on 03/15/2012
Nice one.
12:46 PM on 03/15/2012
The President doesn't need a stress test. Given the nutcases in the other party, the enormous lesser of two evils crowd will run screaming to vote for him.
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JBS
Part time misanthrope & full time curmudgeon
10:16 PM on 03/15/2012
Or at least hold our noses ...
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12:26 PM on 03/15/2012
" and telling American families how the government's got to tighten its belt in hard times, just like they do."

And gleefully approving another $1.3T or so in additional debt that Sasha and Malia (and their kids) will have to pay, thus going without many essentials in the process.

Yes, sir, Mr. President, you passed that stress test. They love you on Main Street.
Viper
Former repub, still repenting
07:55 PM on 03/15/2012
The President proposes the budget for the government to the US Congress. Congress may change the budget, but it rarely appropriates more than what the President requests.[15]

Economist Mike Kimel notes that the five former Democratic Presidents (Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, Lyndon B. Johnson, John F. Kennedy, and Harry S. Truman) all reduced public debt as a share of GDP, while the last four Republican Presidents (George W. Bush, George H. W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, and Gerald Ford) all oversaw an increase in the country’s indebtedness..
frm wiki


http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/07/the-chart-that-should-accompany-all-discussions-of-the-debt-ceiling/242484/
Viper
Former repub, still repenting
07:56 PM on 03/15/2012
2001 vs. 2009
Causes of change in Federal spending as % GDP 2001–2009 from CBO Data
Causes for Changes in CBO Forecasts.According to the CBO, the U.S. last had a surplus during fiscal year (FY) 2001. From FY2001 to FY2009, at the height of the Global Financial Crisis, spending increased by 6.5% of GDP (from 18.2% of GDP to 24.7%) while taxes declined by 4.7% of GDP (from 19.5% of GDP to 14.8%). Spending increases (expressed as % of GDP) were in the following areas: Medicare & Medicaid (1.7%), defense (1.6%), income security such as unemployment benefits and food stamps (1.4%), social security (0.6%) and all other categories (1.2%). Revenue reductions were individual income taxes (−3.3%), payroll taxes (−0.5%), corporate income taxes (−0.5%) and other (−0.4%).

The 2009 spending level is the highest relative to GDP in 40 years, while the tax receipts are the lowest relative to GDP in 40 years. The next highest spending year was 1985 (22.8%) while the next lowest tax year was 2004 (16.1%).[33]
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Terri Skau
Se... sotto una splendida luna piena...
11:10 AM on 03/15/2012
Jared I enjoy everything you write. But please read this and get back too me on your thoughts.

The Federal Reserve: History of Lies, Thievery, and Deceit
http://www.scionofzion.com/federalreserve.htm

Since you have more connections In DC. If you could do some digging on why The 1935 Supreme Court Ruling on "Congress" and Article 1 Section 8 to the "FED " Known as the Federal Reserve Act of 33... Has never been upheld????? ;-)
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LoneTree
Liberty is more precious than life.
02:42 PM on 03/15/2012
Really? http://www.scionofzion.com/ Just ... awesome.
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Terri Skau
Se... sotto una splendida luna piena...
06:50 PM on 03/15/2012
Yes. When the Federal Reserve Act was signed into law sorry my typo in 1913. It wasn't until 1935 that it was brought before the Supreme Court. It was ruled unconstitutional for what Congress had done..But that ruling has never been up held...;-) I'm glad you enjoyed the article...I have many more on this if you would like them... F/F ya...;-)
10:03 AM on 03/16/2012
Excellent Work!!!
Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln and James Garfield had the key to America's prosperity. Unfortunately, they were never allowed to unlock the Federal Banking door for the peoples best interest. It is only a matter of time (and interest owed) until the America we know is changed forever.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Liberal Independent
Love is a Promise .. Kept
10:15 AM on 03/15/2012
Hahahaha! Oh Jared, in your ever inimitable style, this was positively priceless!!

You forgot to include "leaving the cap off the toothpaste" in Julie's stress test about Bill. Too bad those "three little words" didn't save the merger! But Bill deserves all the divestiture coming his way!

Do re-think your decision to return Ivy to the shelter though. You know you love that kitty. She'll come around. Give her some time. :)

As for Obama's stress test by his base, well, it was inevitable, in light of all that has transpired over the past three years. But the result was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Yes, the left felt hurt and abandoned because of certain actions by the WH, and they had to have their grieving time period. But they have since realized that governing and campaigning tend to be light years apart most of the time, and have therefore decidedly come to the only logical conclusion we know: In November 2012, the alternative to Obama WOULD be unthinkable.
05:03 PM on 03/16/2012
You say a President Ron Paul would be "unthinkable"?!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Liberal Independent
Love is a Promise .. Kept
05:42 PM on 03/16/2012
Ron Paul does not have a chance of becoming president. He hasn't even won one primary or caucus in the GOP race so far. It is his own party that will not give him a chance. I am a liberal, and I like Ron Paul. I especially like his foreign policy stances, and agree with them almost 100%. He makes a lot of sense in some, but just some, domestic areas too, but in most others he is a little too far out there for me.

But let's really talk elections, shall we? Ron Paul is now running to pave the way for his son Rand to jump in the presidential race somewhere down the road - 2016 perhaps? 2020? At this point Ron Paul is running just to make a statement, but he knows full well he is not getting his party's nomination, much less winning the general election. And that is just a fact.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
free reign
My country tis of thee!
06:57 AM on 03/18/2012
Ron Paul would actually bring the much needed, brewing revolution. The huge cloud of trillions in non-citizen held and untaxed equity, running the outsourcing/inflation/debt machine, loves the fantasy of deregulation, destroying our defenses, and unfettered access to more American property and wealth. At least some reps are learning what the Fed is through Paul.Wait until they peice together who owns the Fed, is pirating homes, driving up oil, outsourcing, offshoring, and FORCING AMERICANS, WHO ACTUALLY PRODUCE SOMETHING, TO BEAR HUGE TAX BURDEN. China LOVES PAUL, he is the WILDCARD despots play as misdirected anger, swinging the door wide open for pillage.
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Shebagirl
Be a superdog - protect an underdog!
10:06 AM on 03/15/2012
"Developed in the wake of the financial crisis, the examination is intended to assess how banks will fare under weak economic conditions. The Fed looked at whether banks would have enough capital to weather a peak unemployment rate of 13 percent, a 21 percent drop in housing prices and severe market shocks, as well as economic slowdowns in Europe and Asia."

We had none of those conditions in 2008 and we had to bail out the Banks so what has changed in the last 4 years? - nothing - the same game is still being played. I would like to see some independent forensic accountants conducting these 'stress tests' and not the Federal Reserve - that's just like having my brother assessing my sister.
Viper
Former repub, still repenting
08:12 PM on 03/15/2012
The stess test were after higher requirements for capital were made. Yes hye failed before it became that severe.. a test stressed that said, thye will fail if things get a wee bit worse, wuld not have been comforting... and comfort was needed , even if illusionary .

Yes, I know thye are not perfect.... but by the way when the stress test were being done un-employment was over 10%^ an housing prices in my area were donw 30% by 2007 and 60% by 2009-2010.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
notdarkyet
End the Drug War.
09:58 AM on 03/15/2012
They should pass the stress tests. We gave them trillions. If they aren't solvent now they never will be. On the other hand....
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
the truth leans left
09:44 AM on 03/15/2012
if they had to mark to market, every one of these "banks" would be insolvent.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ostrom808
Moral Contrarian
12:18 PM on 03/16/2012
No, you're wrong. Wells Fargo, alone among the top five, actually runs a relatively tight ship, contrary to popular belief. They have lent more mortgages, modified more mortgages, and didn't delve into derivatives like the other top four. Nearly all of the incidents involving them and fraud have been related to their acquisition of Wachovia, which ran amok during the height of the crisis.

Morgan, Citi, BofA and Chase own 95 % of all mortgage derivatives.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
the truth leans left
02:02 PM on 03/16/2012
thnks for the information i stand corrected
09:08 AM on 03/15/2012
How about we stress test the governments fiscal condition and communicate it to the American People. Also, do the trade off of how much money taken out of the private sector to pay for that government in taxes, regulations and litigation drags the GDP and employment.
Viper
Former repub, still repenting
08:09 PM on 03/15/2012
Money taken out of the private sector via taxes flows back into the private sector. Government when it comes to spending is not a Black hole, it does not hord money like the welathy... whihc reduce demand for goods and slows an economy down.


When a customer comes into my business, whether it be government or private, its impact on my business is the same....I dont ask the government customer to pay more becuase his spending is less positive on my business.

What impacts an economy is not who spends the money, but on what.

And of the private sector is going to buy more imported goods, then government spending f more dpomestic will be better and it depnds on what is bought, militay spending low multipleir, infrastructure, research, funding startups very high multiplers.. especially MFG..the highest economic and jobs multipler.

Regards
05:35 PM on 03/16/2012
Government is lousy at spending our money. All things are not the same.
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zogimperator
is this microbiology?
08:42 AM on 03/15/2012
I see what you do there.