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Jared Bernstein

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A Tiny, Temporary Break in the Force?

Posted: 11/18/11 01:29 PM ET

If an army crosses the Rubicon, but immediately scurries back to the other side, did they really cross the Rubicon? If a vicious alcoholic who's been plastered every day for years manages to spend a full day sober only to go on a horrific bender the next day, should we give him credit for his flash experiment with sobriety?

I say "yes," and I give the Republicans on the supercommittee credit for offering a few hundred billion in tax cuts through ending some tax expenditures. That breaks the Norquist pledge and a bad day for Grover is a good day for America.

But, of course, they didn't just cross back to the other side of the Rubicon or crack open a lite beer. They turned and ran back across as fast as their tax-rate cutting legs could carry them. In exchange for about $300 billion of new tax revenue (over 10 years) they tried to extract $3.6 trillion. And by locking in new rate cuts, they'd ensure that the next round of deficit reduction -- a round that will have to come, given the failure of the committee to achieve the needed long term savings -- all the savings would have to come from spending cuts.

So, good for the Democrats (so far) for resisting, and I stand by my view from the other day that given the automatic triggers, no deal is better than a bad deal.

Still, once you've crossed the river and stayed sober for even just a day, even if you blew it immediately thereafter, you've shown us something new. There's been a tiny break in the force. It was quickly sealed, but for a moment, it was there. And that may turn out to be important.

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
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02:12 AM on 11/20/2011
Im sure Master Norquist is disapointed in his young Padawans.

(Please dont sue me Mr. Lucas)
11:22 PM on 11/19/2011
As to the super committee...........I sure hope the Dems just say no.
11:10 PM on 11/19/2011
I do NOT like the Repugs.

But (elsewhere on HP) even I give them some credit for standing up to Norquist and showing a willingness to raise taxes.

It just goes to show you that even a Repug can finally figure out things are bad and getting worse.

****Some people really believed the Repug BS about never, NEVER raising taxes.

When desperate, even a Repug can and will raise taxes.
Reagan did (raised taxes).
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nixthetrix
aiming for the center , being pushed to the left
12:09 PM on 11/19/2011
Correct me if I am wrong but as I understand the republican offer it contained some new revenues . It also called for once again lowering the tax rates of the upper income levels . How can that be considered bargaining in good faith ? For decades we have been lowering tax rates and increasing spending levels ; something had to give . The current debt crisis can be directly traced to this misguided policy .
What have we been spending all of this increase on ? Number one is the military and its related expenses . When I hear the republicans propose a rational way to reduce this budget item I will be happy to listen to the rest of their proposal . Absent a rational plan to reduce spending we will be forced to raise taxes whether or not Grover (or anyone else) likes it .
The idea that we should simply cut the budget across the board in 2013 makes little sense . Our Constitution places the responsibility for orginating spending bills on the House . If the members do not want to fulfil their duty to debate and create spending bills that reflect the wishes of the American people we should replace them with members who understand and accept their duty .
garystartswithg
el sueno de la razon produce republicans
12:24 PM on 11/19/2011
there is nothing done in good faith, maybe in good faith for haliburton, goldman sachs, etc. do you think non-violent kids are being pepper sprayed in good faith? the constitution is dead -- the powers that be have a lot of explaining to do, but a huge chunk of our population are too stupid to ask the right questions and demand the right answers.
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ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
10:38 AM on 11/19/2011
My micro-bio explains how I feel about partisans. It's why Congress has a 9% approval rating versus 48% for Obama. __ Partisans see politics as a war, a contest, a game between opposing sides. That's as absurd as running companies that way. Every large corporation has competing groups, factions that differ on company direction, turf battles. But they realize the point is for the company to work and be profitable. __ To Mr Eskow and other partisans, what matters is victory over their perceived "enemy". That and branding any Dem who is not radical Left with heresy, as is constantly done here with Obama. __ As if the Left represent Dem values. I've voted for every Dem since McGovern, Dems are not a Leftist party. The name comes from "Demos", or "the people". Dems by definition represent the majority, and 40% are conservative vs 20% liberal. A Left party cannot win the Presidency, and it never has, all the Dem liberals lost.
garystartswithg
el sueno de la razon produce republicans
12:38 PM on 11/19/2011
most people would consider me "radical left", "liberal", etc. and its amusing how unradical i really am. simple things -- like police should be held accountable for their behavior. the constitution should be upheld. nowhere in the 14th ammendment is there anything that says you can separate families. Read some Hannah Arendt, too many parallels to ignore. corporations shouldn't hold more sway in govt than people. people should be paid a living wage by their employer, its historical economics -- civilizations don't fare well without the invisible hand curtailing economic disparity. read thomas paine's agrarian justice -- the founding fathers were products of the age of elightenment. they held things like that as a given.
Education should be a right, not a priviledge, Reagan destroyed this country. .
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
03:41 PM on 11/19/2011
Left = liberals = the Lock liberal USA founders.

The liberal dems kept 99% of their seats in the last election, the Reaganomics loving blue dog DLC dems lost 50% of theirs.

What a waste of time the whole GOP field is. No patriotic American would ever vote for any of these Tories. (look it up if you don't know what a Tory is.)

Vote for the Kucinich, Warren, Grayson CPC progressive Caucus folks, not the DLC, New democrats, pragmatic Progressive, Blue dogs, New American Foundation, Progressive Policy Council, Third Way DINOs.

But then vote for the Dems, including Obama in the general since the GOP/Tea are anti demo racy, anti republic, anti "the Beast" Tories. They are out to take away your very right to vote and reduce you to serfdom. Ike was the last good GOP.
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booker52
avid reader
08:39 AM on 11/19/2011
I hope this super committee fails, I wanna see the Bush tax cuts expire.
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
03:42 PM on 11/19/2011
And the big cuts are to our bloated war budget....
http://www.ombwatch.org/files/budget/debtceilingfaq.pdf
11:21 PM on 11/19/2011
Fine by me.

If they succeed, we all KNOW who is going to get it in the buttt.....
And I am tired of getting skewered.

At least if they fail.....they have to find another way and take more time to make us bend over to get it....... {wink}
03:06 AM on 11/19/2011
Jared Bernstein says, "No deal is better than a bad deal". Maybe so; but in the Super Committee case, no deal may be the best possible deal. On the surface, it appears the Democrats gave away everything in exchange for nothing. This was said to be in the interest of good faith negotiation. However, it now appears Republicans and Teapublicans alike may have been "set up".

Failure of the Super Committee in November 2011 is of no consequence until November of 2012. At that time, voter concern about entitlement cuts of any description will be far ahead of whatever's in second place. Millions of voters who depend on (or for other reasons support) entitlement programs will ask, what happens next?

They won't like the answer; but they will be offered a way out. With these voters, 9% unemployment will no longer be viewed as the economic equivalent of bubonic plague. The continuing unemployment problem may have to share the voting booth with impending entitlement cuts. Some say the 2012 election will be entirely about the economy; buy I say maybe not!
02:20 AM on 11/20/2011
Well said. I also believe that the GOP has been set up.

However, if it's a set-up, I think that Obama and the Democrats (and not those Blue Dog Dems) just sort of stumbled/bungled their way into it.
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Rita Kothbauer
01:34 AM on 11/19/2011
Maybe they know that the party is over, they are on to us.
ruffledfeathers
joy-early sunrises with a cup of coffee
12:10 AM on 11/19/2011
Seriously, did anyone really believe this Super Committee was going to accomplish anything? Absolutely not! Does anyone really believe the GOP will allow the penalty to set in and cut defense? Absolutely not! You can bet your bottom dollar in the days to come, those Super Committee rules will be, WOOSH, flushed down the toilet. What a waste of taxpayer money. I have yet to understand how our Rep's in Congress feel they deserve their salaries. Can we get a rebate?
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LoneTree
Just another 2nd Amendment liberal.
11:50 PM on 11/18/2011
Not being one, I can't speak for "all Republicans", but based on my life experience I'd guess that there are plenty of them who would love to be reasonable. I also suspect that when under relentless attack, they are going to bond with those who have their backs, known allies, their own tribe. A long time ago, a guy named Sun Tzu said something to the effect of "Always leave your foe a means of escape."

I know that for some readers here I don't need to explain, but for those who don't get it: do not corner your enemy unless you intend to annihilate him. And if you set out for annihilation, it might be your own that you bring about. Because no enemy fights like a cornered enemy (1).

Each side needs to give the other side a way to agree.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Bastogne
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chosin_Reservoir
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khe_Sanh
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Liberal Independent
Clowns to the left of me Jokers to the right
10:41 PM on 11/18/2011
" ......no deal is better than a bad deal". Jared, I see why I always liked your thinking. And you and Krugman seem to agree on this.
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tweed7t
wear sunscreen and dance
11:45 PM on 11/18/2011
hey, there is Kuttner, Galbraith, Tasini, Stiglitz and Roubini, just to name some more, who agree with him. There are some other economists that post here also, i am not familiar, who agree with Bernstein.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Liberal Independent
Clowns to the left of me Jokers to the right
12:44 AM on 11/19/2011
I like Roubini too. Wasn't he the one who predicted the financial meltdown of 2008, with almost frightening accuracy, way before it happened?
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mustardhead98
Professional Fine Artist
08:20 AM on 11/19/2011
So when the republicans believe "No deal is better than a bad deal"....you agree???

There is just SO much hypocrisy and spin going on........
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Liberal Independent
Clowns to the left of me Jokers to the right
01:19 PM on 11/20/2011
It depends if it's to the benefit of the American people. Most of the R's "deals" are bad deals. Their "no deals" are even worse.

I agree .. hypocrisy and spin abound ... on BOTH sides, though definitely much more on the R than on the D side.
10:32 PM on 11/18/2011
It really doesn't matter. The Laws of Gravity act the same regardless of what party you are from. An so do the Laws of Economics.

As long as you continue to support social programs that require an increasing number of people to contribute to pay for the benefits the current people enjoy the more quickly the program will continue to add to our debts. You simply can't go from 30 people paying for 1 person to 3 people paying for 1 and expect an entitlement to be sustainable.

We keep doing things like suggesting rich people can pay for it through higher taxes -- but the fact is that doesn't even come close to closing our future entitlement costs. And neither does closing the loopholes for rich people or businesses. There simply is NOT enough money.

But we keep pretending and living beyond our means because we continue to believe the law of Gravity doesn't apply to us.
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LoneTree
Just another 2nd Amendment liberal.
11:51 PM on 11/18/2011
Precisely.
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larrystalcup
12:18 AM on 11/19/2011
hey, just how many damn times must you be told that the "social programs" social security and medicare, especially social security have NOTHING to do with the budget deficit....NOTHING!!!!! if you completely destroyed them today and their specific revenues.......you would not change the deficit one penney......unless you wish to not pay back the treasuries that are owed to the people......and if so, why not also refuse to pay the interest and principle on treasuries owed to wall street, china, and japan...they are no more valid than the ones owed to social security. it just depends who you wish to screw!!!.....ls
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LoneTree
Just another 2nd Amendment liberal.
12:47 AM on 11/19/2011
".unless you wish to not apay back the treasuries that are owed to the people"

There are $2.6T in special issue Treasuries sitting in a box at Social Security HQ that are going to have to be redeemed from the General Fund in order to pay benefits to recipients. In other words, the taxpayers are directly on the hook for Social Security benefits. Nobody is proposing not paying those benefits, but your statement that this does not affect the deficit and debt is simply not true.
CactusTom
My New Novel
10:09 PM on 11/18/2011
Indeed, on behalf of corporate America and in conjunction with the Republican Congressional corporate shills, Grove has been a giant wrecking ball of America's greater good. Communism, socialism, terrorism can not begin to compare with the subversive damage done to this country by our own corporations and their lackeys.
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OleProfessor
"Ours is not a system based upon trust"
09:09 PM on 11/18/2011
Going to War while Cutting Taxes is unprecedented in the annals of World History...

The perfect recipe to bankrupt any nation...

That's Grover Norquist's agenda and why he is al-Qaeda and our other real enemies greatest asset within America..!
CactusTom
My New Novel
10:11 PM on 11/18/2011
Perfectly stated!
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OleProfessor
"Ours is not a system based upon trust"
09:30 PM on 11/19/2011
Thanks, you must subtract the cost of both..
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LoneTree
Just another 2nd Amendment liberal.
11:56 PM on 11/18/2011
The total cost of the entire Iraq and Afghanistan operation to date is less than $1.3T. That is less than 9% of our debt. Our ANNUAL DEFICIT is that much or more, in other words, our debt is increasing annually by the total 10 year cost of Iraq and Afghanistan. I understand that you don't like what we are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan, but wild inflation of the actual effect does your case no good at all.

http://costofwar.com/en/
04:48 AM on 11/19/2011
53% of the total budget goes to military or military-related expenditures......about $800,000 per year.
08:17 PM on 11/18/2011
It's better for the public interest that the GOP refuse to agree to cosmetic tax increases to cover serious cuts in old age benefits, the Democratic program. The Catfood Politburo was one of the biggest political sellouts ever agreed to, and it's in the public interest that it fails in its efforts to cut benefits.