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Jared Bernstein

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The Opportunity Costs of the Debt Ceiling Debate

Posted: 07/13/11 10:17 AM ET

We live at a time of 9.2% unemployment, with tens of millions un- and underemployed. The job market is stuck in neutral -- if the economy were a bicycle, it would be wobbling along, threatening to keel over unless the rider paid some attention to the pedals.

And yet, instead of dealing with this fundamental challenge to the living standards of everyday people, Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, spent the day figuring out a way to avoid having to vote to raise the debt ceiling.

Clearly, he's in the same mode as his house colleagues, who now argue that "it's the administration's debt ceiling."

The proposal would have the president call for increasing the debt ceiling, and that call would trigger an equal-sized (nonbinding) cut in spending. The Congress could vote against raising the ceiling, but they'd need a veto-proof majority to make that vote stick.

I've seen a bunch of analysis suggesting that Obama should like this deal. He can raise the debt ceiling on his own, get credit for proposing spending cuts, and leave it to Congress to enact them or not. Sure, he and the Democrats (assuming they'd support his veto if the Republicans "disapproved" of the debt increase) get tagged with raising the ceiling, but hey, that's the price of being the grown ups.

Maybe this is the president's best option if no others open up. It does present a way for Republicans to avoid triggering default without getting their fingerprints on the debt ceiling increase, and maybe that's the best we can get.

But I don't like it (I doubt House Republicans will like it either, since it practically insures a debt increase with no commitment to spending cuts). It's a cynical ploy, an admission that you won't take the responsibility to do the right thing, and it pretty deep complexity to what should be, and has been in the past, a pro forma vote against wholly avoidable economic pain.

Also, consider the opportunity costs being expended here. Every legislative moment spent figuring out how to game the debt ceiling is not being spent preventing that bicycle from toppling over.

This post originally appeared at Jared Bernstein's On The Economy blog.

 
 
 
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07:51 PM on 07/17/2011
It's time to channel President Eisenhower...

http://www.alternet.org/story/149019/
How Our Trillion-Dollar Empire Is the Cause of Our 'Deficit Problem' | | AlterNet

"We could make the budget deficit disappear and fully fund Social Security and Medicare without raising taxes, if we only outspend our biggest military rival by threefold.

December 8, 2010

The United States spends more on its military and security services than the rest of the world combined, yet in the midst of a major debate over our fiscal situation, that enormous drain on our national treasure isn't really "on the table" in any serious way. Obama's deficit commission recommended cutting the Pentagon's purse, but the thrust of its focus was on veterans' pensions and health-care -- rather than, say, maintaining costly bases to defend such imperiled allies as Italy and Germany -- and the spending reductions were largely symbolic relative to the level of bloat that plagues our security budget..."
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E4B32787
US Gov: The best that money can buy.
08:09 PM on 07/17/2011
I think some of the spending is tucked away in the State Department. I think spending at State is about $70 billion.
04:23 PM on 07/17/2011
Funny how the debt is only an issue when a Democrat is president.
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E4B32787
US Gov: The best that money can buy.
04:38 PM on 07/17/2011
That's what I was thinking. My hero, Dick Cheney says "deficits don't matter". Didn't hear much of a peep out of the Republicans back then. So, it would necessarily follow that we stiff the current holders of treasury debt and start over. That would eliminate interest on the debt as well. (And have a nice day, China.)
05:30 PM on 07/17/2011
Debt IS an issue, period. But people are so whipped up into this non sensical fury by which we put corrupt politicians on pedestals and support them as they sysemqticalaly dismantle our economic futures to make things look good for November.

And so today it is the Democrats who are happy that USA is going broke and will suffer a prolonged decades long recession at best. Perhaps multiple decades. It's disgraceful.
07:56 PM on 07/17/2011
And I guess it was the GOP who was happy the US was going broke when the debt ceiling was raised 7 times under Bush with NO preconditions for cuts?
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E4B32787
US Gov: The best that money can buy.
04:11 PM on 07/17/2011
When Clinton left office, there was projections of surpluses until at least 2040. What changed that was the Bush tax cuts. When the Democrats renewed these tax cuts last December, they renewed the deficits. They now need to be called the Obama tax cuts, and with Obama acquiescing so easy on renewing the tax cuts for the rich, they are the Obama tax cuts for the rich.

It was clear that the debt ceiling issue was coming up. The Democrats dealt away their bargaining chip, the tax cuts for the rich without getting anything in return. They did that on purpose.

I think what we're seeing now is a elaborate hoax, with two political parties seemingly at odds, while acting in concert to implement the Simpson-Bowles deficit commission recommendations. I think the whole thing was arranged last December, when the tax cuts were extended.

If I'm right, there is something larger here than simply a debt ceiling issue. We do know that the Congress's owner, the US Chamber of Commerce has said that the debt ceiling issue needs to be resolved. So, what are we seeing?
05:27 PM on 07/17/2011
Clintons surplus was a fiction. Go google the USA today article explaining it. But yes, Bush's expansion of our national debt was by far the most significant.
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E4B32787
US Gov: The best that money can buy.
05:43 PM on 07/17/2011
Not according to OMB.
http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/issuebriefs_ib159/
"According to the most recent long-term forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the federal government will run surpluses well into the future. OMB (2000) projects that the federal budget will show a surplus until 2075 if discretionary expenditures grow with inflation, and until 2040 if discretionary spending grows with GDP (which is much faster than it has grown in recent years). CBO's (2000) long-term forecast, which assumes that costs for Medicare and Medicaid will triple as a share of GDP by 2040-which is far more than projected by OMB or by the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA 2001)-still shows a combined surplus for the federal government beyond 2020. Thus, even under some rather bleak projections with respect to health care costs, the federal government will be able to meet its obligations to Social Security well beyond 2016. "

That was the rationale why we could afford the Bush tax cuts. Throw in the prescription plan, and a couple of wars, and we have the deficits. Throw in the financial collapse that reduced further tax revenues, and we have more deficits.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skeptical Patriot
05:56 PM on 07/17/2011
When Clinton left office the US moved into a massive stock market collapse. Remember the NASDAQ is still 40% below that period. The country moved into recession and the two tax cuts were passed with sunset provisions. In addition, stimulus spending was put into place, rates were lowered and our currency was worked downward. All of these items had the effect of changing the trajectory to a low growth economy.

However, then Bush moved us into two wars. Arguably, the Afghanistan war was thrust upon us but Iraq was not. In addition, he passed the near criminal Medicare drug benefit, a massive unnecessary and budget busting give away.

In addition, there has been a massive increase in gov't spending NOT the tax cut which has driven deficits. We take in about 2.5T in taxes.

Here are the past 10 years of Federal spending (inflation adjusted) including all military spending:

2001: ....$2,328
2002: ....$2,474
2003: ....$2,598
2004: ....$2,685
2005: ....$2,810
2006: ....$2,819
2007: ....$2,881
2008: ....$2,981
2009: ....$3,198
2010: ....$3,552
2011: ....$3.513 (after cuts)”
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E4B32787
US Gov: The best that money can buy.
06:30 PM on 07/17/2011
He "had" to pass the Medicare prescription benefit. Remember the problem? Grandma was driving to Canada and breaking the law by filling her prescription there. We couldn't throw Grandma in jail, could we? So, they came with this benefit, so Grandma wouldn't need Canada, and the pharmaceutical corporations were laughing all the way to the bank.
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harveyr2
America vs. the Washington duopoly; choose America
03:24 PM on 07/17/2011
Our two party, duopoly is broken. Both parties are equally responsible for the mess we're in. Likewise, the voters are at fault too.

It will take a leader, one not visible on the horizon of either party, to pull this nation together so that we can achieve all that our founding papers allow us to achieve.
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pickles n pops
No more payroll tax cuts Mr. Obama!
03:29 PM on 07/17/2011
Why are you blaming the voters?
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harveyr2
America vs. the Washington duopoly; choose America
05:34 PM on 07/17/2011
How does one get elected if not by the voters?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Michael Ruiz
03:40 PM on 07/17/2011
I agree 100%, Nice explanation... I'm supporting Ron Paul
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harveyr2
America vs. the Washington duopoly; choose America
05:36 PM on 07/17/2011
Ron Paul will be 77 years old on election day. He will be attacked by the press as too old.
08:05 PM on 07/17/2011
Then you are supporting abolishing all programs like medicare and social security as well as all other programs that benefit all Americans.

No Paul is not the answer unless you are super rich and can always afford expensive healthcare etc even when you are elderly. In that case you are just selfish.

I don't understand how any sane person can think libertarianism can work in a large modern society.
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02:09 PM on 07/17/2011
Cut,Cap,and Balance.....Is this like the militay's, Tatics, Techniques,and Procedures???--2 oxymorons,"military intelligence" and "GOP(Gangsters On Patrol) intelligence".....This country is run by a bunch of illusionists....Can't get no relief....
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cheryl tobin
Alpha Dog with my pack!
12:55 PM on 07/17/2011
Can one of the 3 branches of government just pass their constitutional powers to another when they want too?
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02:55 PM on 07/17/2011
All three branches have passed their constituti­onal powers to corporations, especially after the SCOTUS "Citizens United" decision...

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That's why Murray Hill Incorporated is taking democracy's next step — running for Congress. Join us and build a vision for the future we can all be proud of. Vote Murray Hill Incorporated for Congress!

Vote Murray Hill Incorporated for Congress!..."
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cheryl tobin
Alpha Dog with my pack!
05:34 PM on 07/17/2011
Very True!
11:34 AM on 07/17/2011
Obama in 2006:

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills."
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harveyr2
America vs. the Washington duopoly; choose America
03:22 PM on 07/17/2011
Amazing how much more difficult it is to be a leader than it is to be a candidate.
11:31 AM on 07/17/2011
Obama in 2006:

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills."

We are going broke and any further debts piled on top of the already record breaking pile of unpayable debt is just going to take us under with increasing speed and ferocity.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ClarcKing
Citizen
09:50 AM on 07/17/2011
The President, The Fed, the Congress, Democrat and Republican leadership are dedicated to the degradation of the United States. The nation is not suffering the costs of entitlements; the US suffers runaway bailouts proposed in the Fed's QE3 and the raised budget ceiling. The bailouts must be stopped. This is where our national security crisis begins.

Trillions of dollars went to the Wall St. cabal, most of that went to European Banks. Europe is de facto bankrupt, demanding more bailouts; that we raise our debt ceiling. The US population pays the bill$.

No jobs, no unemployment extensions, no food stamps, no farm aid, no manufacturing, no economic platforms like NAWAPA. NASA, the source of America's strength, is to be chopped up and privatized. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is to be chopped.

No one in the Wall St cabal has been indicted for fraud, no action taken to recover the bailout trillions. Perpetual War, that is war against the US, is expanded effortlessly. Congress just doesn't care.

Stabilizing the United States is the only imperative the only power on earth that can save humanity.

Statecraft demands the immediate reenactment of the Glass-Steagall standard in US banking, cancelling all obligations to the Inter Alpha Group of Banks, the Wall St. cabal. Put the Fed into bankruptcy protection, recover the bailout trillions. Create the US National Bank that funds the 50 states, then fund the necessary facilities that enhance the population's standard of living.
Stop Perpetual War. No other options exist.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Eileenla
Author, "Sacred Economics"
10:27 AM on 07/17/2011
Part of the issue is that we have a huge amount of work to do as a nation, but much of it does not generate paper profits...it directly benefits life itself, and we have no way to fund that work in a for-profit paradigm. Cleaning up pollution, restoring degraded topsoil, restoring the overfished oceans and rivers, protecting ecosystems and endangered species, rebuilding infrastructure, designing sustainable ways of living, stewarding limited natural resources, tapping free and renewable resources, protecting our environment, exploring space...all are noble goals for humanity as a life form, but uninteresting or downright hostile to corporate profiteers. We humans NEED to shift our attention away from money and onto life, where it rightfully belongs.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
larrystalcup
06:18 PM on 07/17/2011
absolutely! in the first place fica is not a TAX, it is a premium paid for insurance coverage same as you would to a private company. therefore the amounts collected should NOT be counted as revenue to the general fund of the federal government. it doesn't matter if the money goes in with the revenues or not..the point is in the accounting....these funds are to be spent for social security and as such have no affect on the budget other than overstating the amount of money available for the government to spend. medicare is the same. apparently the congress and the PRESIDENT want to pull accounting shenanigans by lowering the amount paid to social security and raise the amount paid to the general fund.... thereby actually raising taxes by means of the "back door."
wbearl
Retired Manager Mechanical Operations
09:09 AM on 07/17/2011
I'm glad that I'm retired on the bottom half of my life. I see nothing but misery in the future for this country and right now it won't effect me much at all. Regardless of what Washington DC does, it's going to hurt. If the country doesn't make some very serious spending cuts, the country will default on their loans and life as Americans know it will abruptly end. If this country raises taxes on the rich, they will simply move their money and operations off shore. The country not only doesn't get the taxes, but the capital for business will disappear. So we have a loose, loose situation. I will apologize to future generations for what ever part I may have played in this mess. Although at this time it doesn't look like it, I hope future generations use their heads more than the past and current generations did. Since I have voted Democrat and Republican I can't blame one party more than the other, we are all guilty of this mess.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Eileenla
Author, "Sacred Economics"
10:31 AM on 07/17/2011
So if what you've participated in has screwed things up, you're glad you'll get to die before you have to suffer the consequences? Nice. I'm guessing you don't have much compassion for the children of the world, otherwise you'd roll up the sleeves on your retired arms and get to work using your leisure time trying to make things better instead of complaining. "it won't affect me" is one of the most immoral statements a human being can make.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Michael Ruiz
03:42 PM on 07/17/2011
Eileenla, You seem like a great person and full of compassion and critical unselfish thought. Im curious if you affiliate yourself with a party and if you have a presidential candidate that yo support.
05:51 PM on 07/17/2011
How about getting on the bus and helping put limits on Medicaid and Medicare. The unchecked and nearly unlimited cost growth of healthcare on us all is a significant part of the problem.
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07:50 PM on 07/17/2011
There's a solution: single-payer health care.

But that will NOT happen as long as the corporate-controlled two-party duopoly remains in power.
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Dennydorite
To Serve Man--A Cookbook
08:27 AM on 07/17/2011
The Republicans decided to take the US economy hostage in order to force spending cuts in programs they opposed all along, but couldn't stop because they were in the minority. They want to accomplish through bullying and intimidation what they couldn't accomplish through legislative means. Now that that strategy is starting to blow up in their faces they want to find another rat hole to scurry into, one that will leave Democrats to take the heat while they position themselves for 2012 as the party who tried to stop the spending cuts and tax hikes. The President would be ill advised to accept such an offer. Republicans need to pay the political price for their folly. If Democrats don't get weak knees and cave, day after day the public will be exposed to the fact that it is Eric Cantor and his tea party know-nothings that are threatening the country's demise for the sake of ideological fanaticism.
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E4B32787
US Gov: The best that money can buy.
04:26 PM on 07/17/2011
If you don't think the Democrats, and particularly Obama is mixed up in this, up to their eyeballs, then I have a bridge for sale you may be interested in buying.

I saw this last December, before the tax cuts were renewed.
1. - They extend the tax cuts, adding $1 trillion to the debt.
2. - The new Republican house refuses to raise the debt ceiling.
3. - Cuts are necessitated by the failure to raise the debt ceiling, starting with not paying back to the Social Security trust fund, the amounts owing.

The debt ceiling and the tax cuts that everyone knows will raise the national debt needs to be resolved at the same time.

That's what I said back then. A blind man could see this coming. The Dems dealt away their bargaining chip, the tax cuts for the rich without resolving the debt ceiling issue.

And what we're seeing now is a hoax, acting by the politicians, while implementing something they agreed to last December.
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pickles n pops
No more payroll tax cuts Mr. Obama!
05:07 PM on 07/17/2011
And with another "last minute" deal with the GOP, Obama will emerge as the all-conquering hero.
05:45 PM on 07/17/2011
My response is Obama grow some balls and do the right thing. We need to both raise revenue and cut federal spending. Raise taxes, (i.e. repeal the tax cuts and all of them, we're all in this sinking ship together). Two repeal Obama Care. These two things alone will get us back onto a more level balance sheet. This needs to be followed by long overdue balanced budget amendment. The decisions for spending more of our dollars than we have needs to be taken out of the hands of theose that have now shown for > 30 years they do not have the moral fortitude to do what is best for America in the long term.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
joebhed
Greenback Revolutionist
08:13 AM on 07/17/2011
To me, the Debt-Ceiling Debate should be first and foremost about THIS:
Hey, why do we have a debt-ceiling?

Then we could talk about how many other countries HAVE A DEBT-Ceiling ---- NONE.
(No Liberty Bonders out there.)

Then we could talk about WHY we should have a Debt-Ceiling , if no other countries have one.
Then we could debate the implications of removing the debt-ceiling.
Then we could debate actually repealing the debt-ceiling(Liberty-Bond).

Then people could write books about the history of the ridiculous debt-ceiling and how the Repugs tried to use it, among other tactics, to destroy our country.

Debate the Debt-Ceiling?
Really?
01:01 PM on 07/17/2011
Well said.

Why are all the supposed "free market" Republicans making this the issue. Do they think the market can't determine our limits?

The only reason this will be resolved is because all the grandstanding politicians will not want to pass the deadline and see that America survives without following them.

Stop with these phony issues and create a thriving economy with jobs, profits, taxes and benefits.
06:00 AM on 07/17/2011
Nothing meaningful will be accomplished until one party of the other is in complete control, including a filibuster breaking majority in the Senate. McConnell is actually a good bet for Obama as he can agree to initial cuts (ca. 1+ trillion) agreed to by the Biden group and get the rest by simply putting forward his grand design (which Republicans will reject - but that won;t matter as it would need a veto proof majority to stop it). This will make Obama's approach versus Ryan, etc. an issue for 2012 where it will be rightfully up to the voters to decide one way or the other.
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09:20 AM on 07/14/2011
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/07/12
Why is the Most Wasteful Government Agency Not Part of the Deficit Discussion? | Common Dreams

"In all the talk about the federal deficit, why is the single largest culprit left out of the conversation? Why is the one part of government that best epitomizes everything conservatives say they hate about government—- waste, incompetence, and corruption—all but exempt from conservative criticism?

Of course, I’m talking about the Pentagon. Any serious battle plan to reduce the deficit must take on the Pentagon. In 2011 military spending accounted for more than 58 percent of all federal discretionary spending and even more if the interest on the federal debt that is related to military spending were added. In the last ten years we have spent more than $7.6 trillion on military and homeland security according to the National Priorities Project.

[snip]

What makes the hypocrisy even more revealing is that the Pentagon turns out to be the poster child for government waste and incompetence.

In 2009 the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found “staggering” cost overruns of almost $300 billion in nearly 70 percent of the Pentagon’s 96 major weapons. What’s more, the programs were running, on average, 21 months behind schedule. And when they were completed, they provided less than they promised..."
08:43 AM on 07/14/2011
The real "cynical ploy" is tax increases for amorphous spending cuts, which never materialize. It's been going on for decades. That is why we are where we are today.

Real tax increases; fake spending cuts

http://www.fiscalaccountability.org/lessons-real-tax-increases-fake-spending-a1681
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Dennydorite
To Serve Man--A Cookbook
08:08 AM on 07/17/2011
We are where we are today because the country decided to put it's resources into Empire building through war after useless war, maintaining a far reaching military presence throughout the world. We spend more than all countries combined on this wasteful endeavor instead of investing in the country's youth and their future.
06:30 PM on 07/17/2011
We haven't had a tax increase since 1993. What tax increases are you taking about?