1. In 2011, the social media frenzy has its morning after.
Recalling the era of driving traffic to company web pages, marketers will hit the wall using precious ad dollars to drive traffic to fan pages.
2. The untethered web accelerates the shift of ad dollars to online from traditional media and turns out to be especially good for... you guessed it, the web.
The untethered web -- smartphones, tablets and the like -- will be especially good for the growth of audiences online, but not necessarily for the digital incarnations of traditional media such as magazines and newspapers. Those will fail to get the uplift in paid or subscribing audiences they hoped would come from touchscreen technology. In the end, audiences will demonstrate that they place unique value on the quirky labyrinths of the web, and celebrate access to it away from the computer.
3. Pre-roll video ad distribution remains lumpy, capping the upside of the sector in 2011.
Pre-roll video, dependent as it is on video content, will remain "distribution-challenged" with a few black holes such as Hulu exerting enough pull to trap media planning while the market looks for alternatives to running video advertising for the sake of video advertising.
4. Content mills will become agents and providers for traditional media. Demand Media misses out on its IPO, but is acquired by -- let's say -- Gannett.
Ultimately, content mills help replace the value lost over the years by traditional media companies unable to afford newsrooms and bureaus. The new, pay-as-you-go model props-up newspapers, especially, with the added benefit that editorial costs can be amortized.
5. "Behavior targeting" ad networks lose out to "audience targeting" DSPs, proving once again it's simply an image business.
6. "Internet-Shminternet"
Addressable TV is wheeled to the launch pad and it is a big, honkin' rocketship with twin engines that breath smoke and fire.
7. Meanwhile, Congress enacts a "do not track" registry similar to "do not call."
And, meanwhile, Jimmy, the Foursquare Mayor of Al's Pizza and Sub shop in Smalltown, USA, is cashing-in a Groupon coupon for a large pie with everything on it before he drives to meet friends near-by thanks to GPS on his Google Android.
"Do you want (us) to save this location to your favorites, Jimmy? How was the pizza? Google love pizza."
8. Standard online ad units are increasingly replaced by non-standard ad units
2011 marks the start of the internet's creative revolution as a new generation of savvy digital users moves from cubicle to creative suite with a goal to give their brands a leg-up in a way that delights consumers -- meaning, the end of inter-@#$%!-stitials.
9. By the end of 2011 there will be apps you can eat, followed, in 2012, by a great app binge and purge.
10. The Boston Red Sox will win the World Series.