Much to the delight of political pundits, Democrats, and roughly one in five Republican voters, Donald Trump has taken the Presidential election season by storm, peddling his version of the "Straight Talk Express" from the Mexico border to the moneyed lobbies of his myriad properties and golf courses. And, much to the chagrin of the GOP establishment and the handful(s) of presidential wannabes, he has remained on top of recent polls, despite his unique brand of truth telling that includes insulting war heroes, retweeting misogynous invectives, and giving out the cell phone numbers of sitting U.S Senators.
The question that is being asked by each of these groups, either publicly or in whispered pleas, is "How long can this possibly last? Can he actually win this thing?"
The good news (or bad news, depending on your vantage point) is that not only is there a long way to go in this election, but historically, we're still several months away from the point at which Republicans have typically "crowned" their front runner. If you look back at GOP presidential primary polling over the last several cycles, the person leading the pack around October of the year before has ultimately become the nominee; in fact, going back as far as October of 1959, the only person leading the polls in October the year before to not win the nomination was Senator John McCain, in October of 2007. In that poll, McCain trailed by 16 points to another New Yorker with a penchant for speaking his mind (yes, I know that is redundant), former NYC and World Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
That said, even if Trump continues his impressive front-running performance into the fall, recent history would suggest he could still be unseated. And with 16 other candidates nipping at his heels, there is no shortage of potential dethroners.
As a political pundit and observer, however, my greatest interest lies in the intersection between message and messenger. Is Trump's lead because of his outlandish, no-holds-barred populist personality, or is it because he is saying things that Republicans agree with? On issues like immigration and the economy, I think (and polls would agree) that Trump is on the same page as a good deal of Republican primary voters. And in the quirky world of primary politics, the "best" message is also often the most controversial and divergent for the rest of the country. But Republican voters have a pretty good track record of sorting out winners and losers pretty early in the contest, which would make things all the more interesting if Trump still leads in October (Happy Halloween!).
What I will be looking for in the coming weeks and months is whether or not Trump's lead holds, and, should it begin to diminish, where the slack picks up. If more "mainstream" candidates begin to pick up steam as Trump slides, it would suggest the message is wrong, and the Republican establishment can breathe easier. If, however, Trump's slide is picked up by another "fringe" candidate, it would suggest the messenger is flawed, not the message, which would foretell a very divisive, potentially damaging primary. Or, as some might hope, Trump remains in front well past October and into the first caucuses and primaries. If the third scenario plays out, the buzz from Baltimore to Brooklyn to Burlington might be for everyone to take up bridge as a hobby, because it takes a skilled card player to win playing against trump.
Advertisement