In a race that looks to be almost too close to call sometimes the little things like the "Redskin Rule" can give a candidate hope. The rule states that when the Washington Redskins lose their final game before the presidential election the party that lost the popular vote in the previous election wins the electoral college vote in the upcoming election.
Vice versa if the Washington Redskins win the final game before the election then the incumbent party retains the White House. This original rule has held true to form in 17 of the last 18 presidential elections. The 2004 presidential election is the only outlier. However, some argue that the rule is 18 out of 18 because it was reversed with Al Gore winning the popular vote in 2000 over George W. Bush, but losing the election. Thus flipping the rule for the next election. The Redskins lost in 2004 meaning the incumbent would remain in the White House under the flipped rule.
As we all know President George W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004. Confused yet? Oh by the way, the Washington Redskins were upset at home this past weekend by the Carolina Panthers. So...Mitt Romney early congratulations might be in order. Time to pop some champagne bottles.
Not so fast Governor Romney (insert your best Lee Corso ESPN College Gameday voice). While many believe Romney just might win the popular vote, President Obama looks to have a good grip on the electoral college because of his recent strength and get out the vote ground game in many key battleground states including Ohio.
Here are my state by state predictions (D.C. also included):
Romney is a solid bet to win Georgia, Texas, Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. He will also most likely win Arizona. This puts Governor Romney at 191 electoral votes.
Obama is a solid bet to win Washington, California, New Mexico, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C. and Hawaii. He will also most likely win Minnesota and Oregon. This puts President Obama at 201 electoral votes.
The toss up and swing states in the upcoming election are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. These total 146 electoral votes.
President Obama should win Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These six states take Obama up to 263 electoral votes.
I'm going to give Governor Romney Florida and North Carolina. Taking him to 235 electoral votes.
Leaving Colorado, Virginia and everyone's favorite election year state Ohio. Colorado and Virgina are the hardest two states to predict in my opinion. Both have gone back and forth in many recent polls and the candidates have been neck and neck throughout. Let's give Romney the state of Colorado and Obama the state of Virginia. President Obama is now at 276 electoral votes reaching the needed 270. Governor Romney sits at 244. President Obama will win Ohio to make it an even wider electoral college margin to get him to 294 electoral votes.
Final electoral college score: President Obama 294 - Governor Romney 244.
I predict President Obama will also win between 50.3 and 50.5 percent of the popular vote on Tuesday in a squeaker.
Mark it down, the "Redskin Rule" is not continuing it's incredible run in 2012.
President Obama will win a second term.
If I'm wrong on that prediction, I think Governor Romney and his campaign deserve some bottles of champagne to pop and a few Carolina Panthers jerseys to celebrate in from me.
See you at the polls on Election Day!
Follow Jason Grill on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jasongrill
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