Why Are All the Polls Wrong About Obama?

How much can we really trust all of these presidential election polls?

Well, ever since the DNC ended I have read all of these news pieces from the media regarding the polls for the presidential election. It seems like everywhere you turn there is a new set of numbers on each of the candidates. All of the major ones being published right now are saying that Barack Obama is either just ahead or just behind McCain by a point or two.

Well as they say in the UK, those polls are complete rubbish.

I was at Invesco Field in Denver and experienced first hand the enthusiasm and optimism for Barack's candidacy. The people of America are fed up with the way this country is being run and they want a clear change. As I'm sure you heard many times last week, we are all tired of more of the same.

But yet according the pollsters, Barack didn't experience a post-convention bounce. He isn't up by 5 or 10 points right now like they are all saying he should be. Well friends, I would beg to differ.

What the pollsters and the media are missing out on is that Barack Obama has invigorated a new part of our electorate. He has energized a section of the population that isn't a part of these polls that we read about. The part of the electorate that I am speaking about is the non-voter.

I know from speaking with people on the ground all over America that people have registered to vote in record numbers this year. An Obama field worker from Nevada told me that they are only 2000 registered voters away from turning Nevada into a blue-voting state for the first time in it's history. This is an absolutely amazing feat and something that is not being reported and certainly not reflective in these new polls we are reading.

New voters are going to turn out in record numbers this year and surprise every pollster in the book. Not only has Barack Obama energized disenfranchised African-American voters but he has also motivated millions of apathetic teens and young adults to get out there and vote this year.

I know this first-hand from over 2 and half years of research. I have made a film called The Youngest Candidate, which chronicles the stories of teens who run for public office in America. Although my film is non-partisan and doesn't discuss left or right issues, I was shocked by the ground swell amongst the youth that Obama has created. Many kids that I spoke to had never voted in a presidential election before but they are going to in November and they are going to in record numbers.

It is my personal belief that Barack Obama will bring more new voters to the table in November than any presidential candidate has in our history. He epitomizes the American Dream in a way that this country has never seen before. The son of a former sheep farmer born in Africa is now a presidential candidate. That fact sends chills down my spine and reminds me that this truly is the greatest country in the world and anything is possible in America.

So I wouldn't be too worried about these polls that we are all seeing right now. Barack got his convention bump. But his bump will go under the radar for another 2 months. It will be unrecorded by pollsters and the media until we see the votes on election day. And when that day comes then maybe these pollsters will finally figure out a way to accurately tell the people who is really ahead and behind during these races.

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Comments

[REALLYSAD]

Absolutely true.
Sen Obama is so gentlemanly. e inspires me to be respectful of his opponents and yes the media/polls no nothing about the tsunami that is about to hit America. I can't wait!

[michxwm76]

Sure... Under the radar.
What wishful thinking. All the pollsters are wrong, but your anecdotal evidence based on some guys you have asked around you. Sort of funny... everyone I know is voting for John McCain. He must be winning this election 80-20. Amazing.
Liberals that I have met and who I read are about the most delusional bunch I have ever seen; willing to beleive just about anything they need.
John Kerry had this exact same theory, that there were these millions of young voters out there who couldn't be reached by by pollsters because they have cell phones. They were all going to come out of the woodwork and vote for him but pollsters just couldn't find them.
We'll see...
(Just a bet, if you're willing to lose some money; regardless of the results of this election, I bet you that both candidates end up within 2 points of the Real Clear Politics average, whatever it is. If you're so certain about your Mickey Mouse Club phantom voters...)

[Dave Whitehall PA]

Great point. I myself am one of those new-comers to voting... and I'm 35. The status-quo has been acceptable for me over the years, however things have gotten so bad that I worry about our country and my children's future. I've spoken with everyone I know and none of us has ever been contacted for polling. Heck, the majority of my peers do not have landlines (home phones) anymore. Given this, how can polling be a true representation of our populous? Bet the polls would change if they included the millions of cell phone numbers Obama has included to his "Texting campaign". Either way it is exciting to see people interested an I personally am really looking forward to the debates.

Regards Dave in Whitehall, PA
Obama 08

[BenTen]

While I, as someone who has traditionally voted R who intends to vote D this time around, hope you are right about the voter turnout come November, your argument really isn't a very sound one. Polls are typically based on random (phone) number generators, which don't distinguish between voters and nonvoters, with predictions and margins of error based on distribution and standard deviations. The only difference between a poll in previous years and those happening now, then, would be that the respondant would be more likely to identify him/herself as Democrat vs undecided/unsure. Either way, their data would contribute to the survey results. Refuting the statistical accuracy of polls based on what you experienced at the DNC, which is likely the most biased sample possible, while tempting, doesn't really hold water.

[gregdeveer]

Ummmm... with all due respect, where have you been?

ARG 49%- 43% Obama +6%
CBS 48%-40% Obama +8%
Gallup 50%-43% Obama +7%
Gallup 50%-42% Obama +8%
Hotline 48%- 39% Obama +9%
Rasmussen 48%- 43% Obama +5%