Belichick Was Right
I was about to write a detailed blog using advanced statistics to illustrate why Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th down tonight was absolutely the right decision. Then I realized that someone had already done it for me .
To sum it up. Belichick's Patriots were up by six points and faced a 4th down and 2 at their own 28 yard line with just over 2:00 left in the game. Rather than punt, which just about every other coach in the league would have done (except maybe Sean Payton or Josh McDaniel), he decided to go for it.
Talking about what happened due to this decision is unimportant (and frankly painful for this Patriots fan) so I'll focus on the decision itself. As I mentioned Brian Burke, at www.advancednflstats.com, has already done a great post on this but I'm going to sum it up here in layman's terms and in a way that hopefully will make you realize how obvious this decision was.
Going for it on 4th and 2 at the 28 yard line is successful 60% of the time and if successful would effectively end the game. On average a punt from the 28 would net 38 yards. So a decision to punt would have to be based on an opinion that the extra 38 yards was more valuable than the opportunity to end the game 60% of the time.
Forget everything that Al Michaels and everyone is likely to say about this and think about that for a second. If you were in Belihick's place would you rather have that 60% to end the game or that extra 38 yards in field position?
The advanced stats back up Belichick but I actually think this is a case where a seemingly counter-intuitive decision is actually very straightforward. 38 yards in field position is not worth giving up a 60% opportunity to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines.
Wayne Winston: Belichick Made the Right Call
The announcers were unanimous in saying the Patriots were crazy to go for it on 4th down. I hate to say it, but I think Belichick's move might have made sense.
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Anybody who said--and that includes all of the talking heads on sports shows--that Belichick's decision was categorically wrong just really doesn't understand football. I loathe Belichick and find it disturbing to find myself defending his call, despite it having been a good call.
You can tell yourself he was right until you are blue in the face. Quote all the meaningless stats and "what ifs" if you like. The proof is what happened on the field Sunday night. He made a bad call, his team didn't make the 4th down and the Colts went on to win. Telling yourself that they would have done it anyway is just a poor excuse to keep yourself warm at night.
No amount of "what ifs" and "coulda wouldas" will change that the Pats proved why it was a wrong call.
Exactly!!
Sorry, but it was a first down, just a bad spot, and bad reasoning on your part.
Wrong. Terrible call. Colts capitalized on a bad coaching decision.
Manning had TWO 4th quarter, 79-yard drives. Each taking less than 2:05.
Giving him the ball again is the smart move? How?
And it was obviously the right call to go for it on 4th and 3 on your own 28? How? Oh right, it wasn't. The Colts scored easy from there.
Where are your data?
One other factor. The Patriots were short of time and time outs. Possibly, if going for it fails, they get the ball back (as it happens, they did, but with time for only 1 play). If they punt, they pretty much assure that any drive that beats them will also run out the clock before Brady has any chance to put them in field goal range.
This probably adds a few percent at the margin to the Patriot's odds.
"the extra 38 yards was more valuable than the opportunity to end the game 60% of the time"
You are using statistics on one side of the equation and a subjective statement on the other. What are the odds that a team will go 66 yards in the last two minutes to score a TD? I would be willing to bet the defense stops them greater then 60% of the time.
Thank you. The writer doesn't seem to be considering how much time was left...
The problem with this kind of statistical analyses is that it assumes constant variables.
Assumes going for a fourth a two in the first quarter is the same as going for it in the last two minutes.
Nor does it factor in the psychology of momentum swings; which might not be mathematically quantifiable, but certainly influences the outcome of games.
Your analysis is flawed. Most teams going for it on 4th and 2 are doing so when being down points late in games or near the end of the quarter. The opposing defense is therefore sitting back to prevent the big gain/TD rather than going for a tunrover on downs to get the ball and therefore score themselves.
To create any semblance of statistical normalcy you would need to limit your 4th and 2 scenarios to those near the end of the game where the defense is attempting to get a turnover on downs as their offense needs to score. Your challenge is there is no statistical data set that would allow you to do that as most coaches inherently understand the differences in the dynamics of how the defense is playing any given situation. 4th and 2 with the defense up seven is called very differently than 4th and 2 down 7.
Was it the wrong call? In terms of the chess game that is a few seasons of football possibly not. In terms of last nights game it was in result. Any time New England lines up on 4th down it will be just a bit more credible they are going to snap. And therefore, just a bit more chance a DE with their ears pinned back is going to jump on a hard count giving an automatic first down. Belichek lost 1 game outside his division.
I worked for some of the most powerful corporations on earth and just about all of them were six sigma grounded. The whole idea of this statistical based science is let the numbers tell you what to do, a very errily similar argument to what you are using here. This is pure nonsense. I watched in horror as one bad decision after another came and went and wondered what company would WANT to do away with human judgement. It is insane. I see where you are coming from but what you ignore is the bone crushing effect on morale if it does not work. The Pats defense would have given anything to have those 38 yards extra to defend. It was an insane stupid decision and it shows that Belichick is so desperate to return his Pats to prior glory that he made this mistake.
Ditto.
I agree with you completely about six sigma. From what I've seen this is used solely to comfort potential customers.
We have yet to see how the Pat's defense responds to this moment of distrust. Will they roll over like sheep or will it inspire them to prove him wrong? I'm guessing Belichek knows them better than I do and thought about this.
Lets see how much passion that defense comes out with for the rest of the season before we make a blanket statement they are mental wimps who respond to adversity by rolling over. I'm sure they were insulted but does that demoralize them or light a fire. If they are champions it will light a fire.
As you note why would you want to remove human decision making capacity. Belichek knows his team I expect he believes he believes he knows how his players will respond.
Absolutely the right call. Why would you put your defense in a position to stop arguably the best two-minute offense QB in the history of the NFL? The only mistake Belichek made was not just folding like a lawn chair and letting the Colts score on the first play after the 4th down conversion failed. That would have given the Pats another 1:30 to move the ball into field goal range.
The best two minute QB in history please. Peyton Manning couldn;t touch Montana, Elway, Favre, Staubach or any number of other guys. Until he won a single super bowl he was widely regarded as the guy who could not win the big one. What stat do you have to back this up?
How about his QB rating for the past five years?
And do you actually think the players during the time Staubach and Montan compare to the players and defensive schemes of today?
Let me guess: You're a Pat's fan...righ
What? Wasnt that exactly what they called Elway? Come on, are you serious? Staubach?? Really?
if true, better to have manning starting on his 34 yard line than your 28. the pat's D would have been defending against the touchdown, a huge difference from simply a FG.
an arrogant, bone-headed call.
Agreed. Letting the Colts score would have been a pretty good idea.
If the Patriots were up by 7 points, it would have been a defensible decision. At that point, the worst they would be risking would be a tie. With a mere 6 point lead, it was a horrible decision. The Patriots not only lost the game but most likely lost any chance they had to get home field advantage against the Colts in the playoffs. Belichick noted in interviews before the game that last night's game would be the determining factor in which team got home field advantage. Therefore, his gamble put all of that on the line. Indefensible.
Percentages are funny, especially when trying to justify decisions in the game when momentum, home field, and field position are not in play. But I'll play the game.
Prior to that play, the colts scored touchdowns on 4 of their 13 drives =30%
70% chance of stopping them vs. 60% chance of first down
100% loss
Although I do give cred to Belichick for making a gutsy call. Like you said, almost every other coach in the league would punt it and if the defense didn't hold up and they still lost the game, they wouldn't take the blame.
Maybe the decision was the right one but the play call sucked. If you need 2 yards, throw it three yards, not 1.5.
They threw it three yards - as the video clearly shows.
The Colts defenders drove the receiver back. The receiver bobbled the ball - in the direct vision of an official.
The call was good. The execution was good. The officiating was good. The defense was better. The fault was either in the pass or the reception.
Officiating was nasty. Collie interfered with the Pats CB...NFL needs badly to change that rule...lik
"I have a very low probability of winning the lottery, therefore, I will not buy a ticket. Oh no I didn't win the lottery! Well, at least I made the statistically correct choice in pursuing a lottery win."
Football, on the other hand, is an activity that is made up of people who ARE playing the game.
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