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Jeff Ma

Jeff Ma

Posted: February 8, 2010 01:05 AM

Why the Saints Won the Super Bowl

What's Your Reaction:

As I sit here watching hours of Super Bowl post-game coverage, basking in the glory of the Saints win, I thought I'd write some thoughts on the game that not a lot of people are talking about.

First of all, Sean Payton's gutsy decision to onside kick at the beginning of the second half may have been the play of the game -- that sentiment is inarguable. But what no one in mainstream media is talking about is how the numbers show that if the Saints try that 10 times in that exact situation they would actually recover the ball six times -- more than half of the time. The analysis is here if you don't believe me. I just think it is important to highlight how deficient mainstream media is in giving fans all the facts. We can only hear plaudits of risky and gutsy so many times before it would be nice to have some hard facts provide color on the situation.

Jim Caldwell was over his head in this game. The Caldwell story is a nice one but the reality is that Peyton Manning was the reason that this team almost went undefeated -- Caldwell was merely a caretaker. While Sean Payton was making the right call going for it on 4th down, trying onside kicks, and making the right challenges, poor Caldwell was making his 42 year old kicker try a 51 yard FG, mismanaging timeouts and playing things way to close to the vest when he should have been going for the jugular (at the end of the 1st half).

What's interesting about Payton's decision to go for it on 4th and Goal at the two yard line is how he likely knew things would play out if he didn't get the touchdown. Payton knew that by giving the Colts the ball at their own one yard line, he was essentially taking the ball out of Manning's hands. He knew that there was no way that conservative Caldwell would actually let Manning throw the ball in that situation so essentially he was ensuring that at worst he would go into the locker room down seven points. If he kicks that field goal and then kicks off, there's a good chance Manning has a chance to get another TD before the end of the half -- the worst case scenario. Poor Caldwell played right into Payton's hands.

Garret Hartley was my MVP. Yes I know Brees was really the MVP and as I mentioned before the game he may even be better than Manning. But Hartley's three 40+ FG's were a Super Bowl first and without them the Saints may have not been in a position for Brees' heroics. Hartley's kick in OT against the Vikings was true and his three kicks in the Super Bowl were some of the most no doubt, clutch kicks I have ever seen. Hartley was amazing.

Finally, as I listen to my nemesis Tom Jackson talk about Sean Payton's onside kick decision, I can't help but wonder what he'd be saying if that were the Patriots and Bill Belichick trying that onside kick. Even worse, I can't imagine what he would have said if it had been unsuccessful. Again, it would be nice if someone on that ESPN set had something intelligent to say about the decision rather than commenting on its result.

Nevertheless, a great game, one where at least the good guys or rather the smart guys won.

 
 
 
As I sit here watching hours of Super Bowl post-game coverage, basking in the glory of the Saints win, I thought I'd write some thoughts on the game that not a lot of people are talking about. First ...
As I sit here watching hours of Super Bowl post-game coverage, basking in the glory of the Saints win, I thought I'd write some thoughts on the game that not a lot of people are talking about. First ...
 
 
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10:31 AM on 02/10/2010
Ya'll should have seen Hartley after the victory parade last night . Dat boy was sweeving from the grapevine, all google eyed and slurry, heh... my hero.
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vol1805
09:05 AM on 02/09/2010
why the saints won the super bowl...........they had more points at the end
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RKTesq
Commercial Litigator, San Francisco
03:25 PM on 02/09/2010
But that explanation doesn't give Jeff Ma a pseudo-sportsexperty-intelligentsia topic for filling his column by his deadline.
07:40 AM on 02/09/2010
Jeff, I don't even know who you are, bud buddy you nailed it. Your critique of the Colts' coach is right on and I can't believe that you are the first one I have heard that agrees with my opinion. I looked into his vacant eyes, much like the other Manning quarterback's, during the Jets/Colts first game, and knew that Manning, the bright one, was doing the coaching that keeps the Colts at the head of the pack. The asinine decision to pull Manning during that game was, as seen on Peyton's face, not his call. I have never really heard who made the call, but one has to hold the "coach" responsible. I think that was really the call that sealed the Colts' defeat in the big game last weekend. No shrink would tell you that Caldwell should be in a leadership position in any undertaking. IMHO, thanks for this post on the blog.
04:16 AM on 02/09/2010
The aints were allowed to pull and tug and hang on the colts receivers all game. Not ONE pass interference call? Seriously? And speaking of the offsides kick, watch again who truly had control on the bottom of the pile. Clearly a Colt.

Nevertheless, the Colts typically can beat a team AND the refs if they aren't playing in San Diego. Next time the aints pass by this way Katrina will seem like a safer option.
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Nonyabizz
Facts are really just a liberal plot
11:28 AM on 02/09/2010
gotta love sour grapes....
03:33 AM on 02/09/2010
Good analysis! It's great for those of us who watch only at the game's end, so we see the best plays within 10 minutes, instead of 5 hours. TV is boring!! whether it's sports analysis OR political or economic analysis. It's all anal. No wonder the viewing numbers are going down, except for shows that aim for the lowest common denominator.
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Quitcherbichin
If you are posting here, thank a veteran.
01:42 AM on 02/09/2010
Than you Tony Dungy for making a stupid statement that turned into locker room board material for the Saints. I wonder how barbequed crow tastes?
12:05 AM on 02/09/2010
Pro Football Prospectus even shows the success rate of surprise onside kicks at 70% in a study cited here (only counting years 1996-2006 though):

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/19/zeus-approves-of-norv-turners-onside-kick/

Congrats on your upset call.
11:00 PM on 02/08/2010
While you can't say any one reason why the Saints won (these games have too much complexity, too many swings in momentum), I think it is fair to say that Payton out-coached Caldwell. That would include not just decisions during the game, but the preparation of his players. That's not to say that Caldwell won't learn from this as a first year coach and come back wiser.
But its important to look at how Payton over the last four years handpicked a lot of players, like Brees, and had a vision for the team. He even took a reduced salary. Leading into the owner-player negotiations, I hope both sides keep that in mind: teamwork and commitment to a common purpose won this superbowl. It was not done by assembling a bunch of overpriced and over-rated draft picks and free agents with attitude problems. Yes, Bellichek has been succesful with a similar approach of searching for diamonds in the rough, but I get the sense that Payton's players like and trust him a little more.
10:34 PM on 02/08/2010
While I agree with most of what is said in this post, Jim Caldwell is not to blame for this game. Garret Hartley did deserve extra praise for his record three field goals over 40 yds. Sean Peyton made some very gutsy calls; especially the onside kick. The Colts were moving the ball at will, but the Saints D came up with key stops at crucial times. I agree that Stover should not have been sent out for the field goal try, but the only other call with 4th and 11 was to punt and pin the Saints deep. Furthermore, Jim Caldwell could not make Peyton Manning make the right read on the crucial interception. If you look at the replay Collie was open in the middle, but Manning chose to force one to Wayne who got jumped. Wayne and Garcon both had crucial drops that would have kept the team driving; the coach couldn't do anything about that. The Saints won because they were the better team on the field.
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09:21 PM on 02/08/2010
sean payton was the real mvp
08:16 PM on 02/08/2010
Plain and simple, the better team won!
08:12 PM on 02/08/2010
Jim Caldwell certainly called a conservative game, mainly on the offense. But what can you expect? He learned under under Joe Paterno as an assistant coach at Penn State for 6 years. Even though I am a HUGE Nittany Lion fan, JoePa definitely keeps the PSU offense conservative. Just look at the Capital One Bowl this year.

However, the Colt's loss was a team effort, and there were mistakes players made that contributed to the final result. They had their chances to prevent them.
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Barbara Randlett
07:15 PM on 02/08/2010
I was rooting for the SAINTS

but also rooting against Peyton Manning; the hype in his favor was so far over the top

"best ever"??? NOT

When he has four Super Bowl rings and no defeats, we can talk "best"

OOOPPS....he has already blown that stat

CONGRATS to the SAINTS, Drew Brees and the entire organization; they deserved the win

(enough about PM)
03:35 AM on 02/09/2010
Amen. Joe Montana is still the greatest QB ever.
07:12 PM on 02/08/2010
Jim Caldwell isn't to blame for this loss, Payton Mannning and the rest of the team on the field was. If you want to blame it on a coach, blame it on Tony Dungy who put this group together, gave them their personality (or lack thereof) and predicted they'd win big.
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John C. Bonser
06:39 PM on 02/08/2010
Good thoughts! However one factor that needs to be considered: The Saints Q-back was a Tampa Buc's Q-back castoff. Tampa Bay "Trades the Best and keeps the rest!." Ever hear of Doug Williams, Trent Dilfer, Steve Young. Vinnie Testaverde?