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Jeff Selingo

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What the Lost Decade of Wages Means for Colleges and Their Graduates

Posted: 09/19/11 07:10 PM ET

Last week's annual snapshot of American living standards from the Census Bureau offered plenty of statistics to show just how bad the last decade was for the paychecks of most Americans. For higher education, the report was mixed: good news for students on the degree payoff, but another healthy dose of reality for colleges that believe current upward trends in tuition prices will continue unabated.

First for students, the report underscored yet again the lifetime economic benefits of getting a college degree. The poverty rate for Americans in their 20s with a college degree in 2010 was 8 percent, compared to 23 percent for those in the same age group with just a high-school diploma (the poverty line was set at $22,314 for a family of four in 2010).

While the poverty rate for those in their 20s with a bachelor's degree has increased by two percentage points since 2002, it jumped by six points for those with a high-school diploma during the same time period. For both groups, the poverty rate has improved as they moved into their 30s, but those with a high-school diploma are still much more likely to live in poverty even 10+ years after high-school graduation.

In poverty status, age 20-29, by educational attainment
2010 2006 2002
Some/no HS 43% 32% 32%
HS diploma 23% 18% 17%
Some college 17% 13% 12%
Four-year degree 8% 7% 6%

 

In poverty status, age 30-39, by educational attainment
2010 2006 2002
Some/no HS 39% 28% 29%
HS diploma 19% 14% 13%
Some college 12% 8% 8%
Four-year degree 4% 3% 4%

 

Even so, there is mounting anger by college graduates who blame their alma maters for the fact they can't find a job in this bad economy. The lead story on the NBC Nightly News on Friday evening featured several YouTube videos of enraged college graduates asking the question that's been getting a lot of media attention in recent months: Is college worth the investment? As usual, the news segment highlighted an outlier in the college-debt debate: a student who graduated with a bachelor's degree in international studies in May from North Carolina State University with more than $100,000 in debt, about four times the average.

For jobless college graduates, their degree and the time, effort, and money invested in it seems like a convenient punching bag. If colleges want to continue to sell themselves as a ticket to success in the future, they need to do a better job at defending their degrees against the rising chorus of the "Don't Go to College" crowd.

The jobless young are an angry band not just in the United States, but around the world, as shown by the protests in Europe and the Middle East this past year. This pain is the result of a changing global economy, not a bad college education (although in some cases, colleges shouldn't be let off the hook--just see the book, Academically Adrift).

As Michael Spence noted in a recent article in Foreign Affairs, globalization is forever changing the jobs picture in the United States and other wealthy countries. Nearly all the new jobs created in the United States between 1990 and 2008 were in the non-tradable sector of the economy, particularly health care and government, which are unaffected by global competition. The Economist noted last week that the "natural rate" of unemployment in the United States is now around 7.5 percent.

Along with last week's income report from the Census Bureau, the long-term changes we're witnessing to the U.S. economy should be yet another sign to college leaders that something has to be done about rising prices, and fast.

Perhaps the number that should be most disturbing to colleges in the Census report is that the income of the typical American family has dropped for the third year in a row and is now roughly where it was in 1996, when adjusted for inflation. Meanwhile, the inflation-adjusted price of a public four-year colleges is about 1.8 times what it was in 1996.

Rising family wealth during the 2000s, helped greatly by inflated home prices, allowed colleges to continue to pump up their prices. The census numbers and the nonstop bad news on housing show those days are over. Add to that the fact that there are likely to be substantial cuts in federal student aid in the name of deficit reduction in the coming years.

The vast majority of tuition-dependent private colleges (and a growing list of private-like public colleges) are simply not ready for this shifting market. One president of a very tuition-dependent private college told me in a conversation over the summer the new normal for his institution is 3 percent annual tuition growth. While maybe reasonable to him considering the recent past, I asked if a rate that high is sustainable given the current economy. He seemed surprised that I'd even ask the question.

A higher-education admissions and marketing consultant who specializes in the private-college sector told me recently that his firm does many retreats for trustees and senior college leaders that in part highlight the average household income for the state where the college is located.

"The wealthy board members are very surprised and cabinets [of college leaders] are silently reflective and nod in agreement," he told me. He always asks the college officials if they could afford their prices if they didn't get the tuition remission. "Almost always they say no."

We know the economic model of colleges is broken. Now the economic trends are telling us that the days of pushing the problem off to another president or another board of trustees are behind us. The University of the South cut its price by 10 percent this year. Will others follow? Can they afford to? If not, what is their way out?


 

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MSROADKILL612
love auto biographys. any appS to write mine?
11:36 AM on 09/21/2011
I can see both sides - the pragmatic & the other - but at 60 - i see so many guys who have many talents but are a big fail cos they cant communicate effectively.

What boss will pay big money to a details guy who cant focus on the main game - a rational, logical solution, or at least approach, to the problem. the payoff comes from taking responsibility for a problem unsupervised & solving it - u dont learn that from a purely technical degree - in fact - am skeptical u learn much practical from any degree - but its a valuable exercise that gives employers confidence u can learn real skills as u go.

has long been the case, dumb rich kids go to college, smart poor ones dont - grads from "socialist" countries can make far more in usa cos there is such a premium for a college education due to USA expense.

not much constructive here - just how i see it
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cyclone70
When one facepalm isn't enough
08:21 AM on 09/21/2011
there is a myth out their promoted by those who are inclined to supply sidfer thinking that a supply of educated workers somehow creates demand for them

the opposite is true of course. if you want to increase the supply of educated workers you must first have a demand for them

for example back in the 80s when I was in engineering school you could look in the newspaper and find pages and pages of want ads for engineers and techs. if you graduated with decent grades you were virtually assured a good stable career with good pay and bennies. not so much today where there a scant few openings with unrealistic laundry lists of qualifiactions that get hundreds of resumes sent in for each opening

the local community colleges are dropping and scaling back many of their industrial programs due to lack of demand. the potential employers for these students have gone to mexico and china. the CAD lab is now a storage room, and the machine tool lab is lights out with the machines under tarps
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MSROADKILL612
love auto biographys. any appS to write mine?
09:29 PM on 09/21/2011
Hmm - the issue u seem to raise is education is all about financial return on investment in education

suggest u try a dog eat dog society like thailand - almost nothing works right - basic math, map reading for cabbies - taking an order for more than 2 things ... - even the rich have poor teachers w/ predjudices

would rather live in a society w/ a good basic level of education than one w/ a few nobel prize winners
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cyclone70
When one facepalm isn't enough
08:27 AM on 09/22/2011
Not sure what your point is

I am all for people getting educated for personal growth and enlightenment

but at the end of the day there also has to a be value for that education, and here in the US that value is job marketability and earnings potential.

And using that "bottom line" measurement the value fo a college education in the US has been declining while at the same time the costs rise beyond the rates of inflation with no apparent value added to justify the increased costs
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cyclone70
When one facepalm isn't enough
08:03 AM on 09/21/2011
I returned to school this year and had major sticker shock. Tuition was up twelve fold from when I first attended back in the arly 80s. Tuition at the local campus of the big ten school was around 20 bucks a credit for in state. now its over $250.

My question is what value has been added to the college education that can justify cost increases way beyond that of any measure of inflation? the case is being made that the value of a degree has declined as degrees now seem to be required for even the most menial and clerical entry level jobs.. when taking the the costs of the education into account as well as the loans the potential earning power drops dramatically as well

the local schools around here also are throwing up new buildings like crazy, even though the old ones served fine for years
06:31 PM on 09/21/2011
The sad part is that almost none of that extra money is going towards instruction. Most of it is used to build country club like campus facilities that serve no educational purpose, while the rest is earmarked for the ever expanding ranks of administrators on campus.
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06:41 AM on 09/21/2011
You mention the big pink elephant in the room, but glide by it. The back log of unreasonably high student loan debts (and interest rates- on loans that can only be refi'd once, and not dischargeable in bankruptcy) and continued piling up with no end in sight is a real core problem for the citizenry. Is it any surprise that second and third generation students look at what families are going through with those loans and say "no thanks"?
05:42 PM on 09/20/2011
Here's one way to keep cost affordable and close the SES gap for students to have more equal access: give back to your alma mater. Create scholarships. Support higher education, a (the?) driving force in our economy that has made this country what it is.

Give back. Support the next generation.
04:29 PM on 09/20/2011
I think the answer to this is obvious. The financial gap between those with a college degree and high school grads has widened in the past decade. And studies at Georgetown and elsewhere predict a shortage of college grads of all kinds down the road. As for high school grads, the Labor Department has found that they are tracking into only three occupational areas in large part, one of which is food service. Even the traditional occupational refuge of high school grads, manufacturing, is upskilling and the number of workers with the lowest educational attainment are on the decline in that area also. Not going to college automatically precludes one from an endless number of occupational endeavors, from nursing to teaching.
But at the same time a college degree has gotten excessively pricey although there are always alternatives to keep the costs down, such as commuting from home where possible or online/distance learning. And as for anyone that would go 100 thousand in debt for a B.A, I have to say there would appear to be a lack of common sense on their part.
05:36 PM on 09/20/2011
Lot's of college grads entering the food service track these days.
12:47 PM on 09/20/2011
The 'benefits' of a college education are greatly overrated.

Suppose you conducted this experiment. Take two groups of high-performing high school seniors. One group is given a free college education at the college of their choice. The other group each receives $150K in cash, and enters the labor force. Each group is told that the idea is to make as much money as possible.

After twenty years, who would be the most successful?
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gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
04:45 PM on 09/20/2011
It depends upon what the student learned or majored in at college. If that student learned things that employers do not find useful, then they will not find their college education useful.
05:17 PM on 09/20/2011
Right. And these measurements of poverty rates are not taking into account the large student loan payments that many college graduates have to pay for decades. Good investment if it led to be being a doctor but almost half of them aren't getting a job that even requires a college degree after incurring that debt
SwordOrShield
Software Engineer, Wonk
11:13 AM on 09/20/2011
For college, a loan is always available, the demand goes up as supply goes up because a college grad beats a non-grad for jobs even with irrelevant degrees, so OF COURSE the price is going to skyrocket until people can't pay anymore even with a loan.


That's literally the only thing that stops them - actual flat-out inability to pay. Because when they take in more students and build more campuses, the need for colleges go up. The price will only start to go down when you run out of people above the poverty level to bring in - because until then, there's just no pressure to lower prices. Geez, it looks like leaving education up to the government to prevent shenanigans like this that just screw over families -was- a good idea!
05:19 PM on 09/20/2011
Alternately, the government could provide free college but only for the most academically qualified and only for majors for which there are actual jobs. Some combination of that is what most advanced countries do. Then you would not need the thousands of colleges we have now - most of which don't produce much except in one or two departments.
SwordOrShield
Software Engineer, Wonk
10:11 PM on 09/20/2011
I won't oppose the major restriction. I think a couple of the 'soft' degrees are underestimated (ESPECIALLY sociology - makes for a hell of an HR guy with a bit of business perspective in them or their boss, IMO).

Sadly, I would have to oppose - for the moment - the 'most academically qualified' part. It's a sad fact that we've got a lot of inequality in and under the high school level, and while you can 'work harder', what you can't do is move out of a bad location - you're a kid. You don't have control over that. Poverty plays a major factor, again, and kids don't have a choice to be poor or not. In time I could see that restriction going in, but not right now. And it's something we can afford if we stop getting into stupid expensive wars.
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Scott Fraley
10:43 AM on 09/20/2011
If you really want to be a success in life, you should forgo college and just be born rich. Its the only way to be sure.
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memito
05:02 PM on 09/20/2011
O.K. I'll try that.
T-Haight
What was wrong with federalism?
09:04 AM on 09/20/2011
As usual, the problem is with expectations and education. If you don't want to come out of college with high debt and no prospects, lay off the arts and humanities and get something that qualifies you for a job when you graduate. If you look at the employment for recent college graduates with professional degrees, it is a fraction of those in the humanities. For instance, students who major in engineering, science (even undergraduate), Pre-Med, architecture, and accountancy continue to find jobs. Art History, English, Political Science, and other majors that focus on reading books without specific job qualifications aren't so sucessful. Business majors fit somewhere in the middle.

The real problem is with students (and colleges) stuck in the mindset that the tools for sucess are to be found in copius reading and writing vice in specific skills that are in demand. Taking out a six-figure loan to learn underwater basket weaving or the 21st century equivalant? There's a saying about fools and their money...
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Scott Fraley
10:39 AM on 09/20/2011
Other disciplines may prepare one to make more money... but it sounds like you're arguing that there is no place in our society for Artists, Writers, Political Scientists, Historians, Philosophers, ect. I would argue that those, are precisely what we need more of.
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gr8bsn
An equal opportunity offender since 1978
11:13 AM on 09/20/2011
I fully agree. There's definitely a place, but don't expect to get a return on that loan debt.
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Tekkdude
Battling Republican lies one post at a time.
11:54 AM on 09/20/2011
Not only is there a place for Artists, Writers, etc. There is a place for those pursuing professional degrees to take those classes. Those types of classes don't only teach you history, philosophy, writing, and other things. They teach something that most Americans do not learn in K-12 education. They teach critical thinking skills. Something too many Americans today lack and that causes serious problems for this country. When you are unable to evaluate the truthfulness of a television report or a politicians statement through logical and critical thinking, you are unable to participate properly in your own governance. The results are the tea party where you have people who believe that global warming is false, that the founders were all Christians who wanted this to be a Christian country, and other provably false statements. We need those other disciplines because we need people to know how to think critically because we face challenges going forward that are going to require getting people to agree to very difficult choices.
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gr8bsn
An equal opportunity offender since 1978
11:14 AM on 09/20/2011
Unfortunately, Education degrees have fallen into the humanities area as well. We need teachers, but the degree is expensive and the payoff is too low. Also, the teaching degree doesn't translate well in to other fields if you need to change careers. It's sad, but it's true.
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HellBank
Curve: The loveliest distance between two points.
06:03 AM on 09/20/2011
The smart thing to do is use your college education to become a tenured professor.
06:18 AM on 09/20/2011
Cute. The fact of the matter is, in most academic/scientific departments there are way too few slots and far too many candidates. More and more of the lecturing is done by "adjuncts" with zero-benefit part-time contracts making just over 20 grand a year. It's cheap labor, basically, but with Ph.Ds instead of eastern Chinese peasants. It is quite a bit more likely that a Master's degree in almost anything will get you a decent job of some kind out in the real world than it is that a Ph.D. will get you a tenure-track assistant professorship at a university or college.
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HellBank
Curve: The loveliest distance between two points.
06:26 AM on 09/20/2011
I wasn't trying to be cute; my father was a university professor since before I was born until now, 50 years later--recently retired. Being a professor gave him a pleasant, secure and meaningful life. That also paid pretty good and didn't work a person to death--he had time to enjoy life.
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Jeff Rosenbury
I love all people -- in the abstract
12:48 AM on 09/20/2011
Colleges have done a very poor job researching what they should be. Every single one seems to want to be all things to all people.

They want to be a liberal arts college for trust fund babies to go on a four year drug binge while discovering themselves. They want to be a remedial high school for the kids who couldn't quite learn earlier. They want to be a diploma factory for industry.

Pick one and find a better teaching model that fits your choice.

Most will want to be diploma factories because that's what our economy needs most. That means finding a way to impart industry relevant information cheaply. Find what employers want and teach it. Offer certifications to go along with degrees. Move cutting edge research into the workplace by teaching techniques to students. Don't make students and their future employers engage in 6 month training programs.
06:27 AM on 09/20/2011
There is a dual purpose to universities. On the one hand, to train and teach students. On the other hand, to produce research, be it in the humanities or in the hardest of sciences. The topmost universities are R-1 (research one) that place top priority on that second purpose. More and more, the future seems to be the "corporate university" where not only instruction but the research itself is geared towards the interests of the corporate world. Arizona State University seems to be the prototype of this new breed.

This worries me because it has troubling implications for the independence of research. Funding for research projects will be based not on the potential for new knowledge but on whether or not they will result in better widgets.
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Jeff Rosenbury
I love all people -- in the abstract
11:41 AM on 09/20/2011
There should always be a place for those seeking knowledge for the sake of knowledge. But that's not what the vast majority of people want or need. I see the move to corporate universities as a good thing. They produce widgets people want. They translate scientific breakthroughs into useful technologies like green power systems.

As i said above, schools need to choose their market. Some schools can do non-applied research. Some can teach liberal arts. But most need to prepare their students to become servants to their fellow men. Increasingly this means researching technologies and then quickly distributing that knowledge.
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LoneTree
Liberty is more precious than life.
09:29 PM on 09/19/2011
I fully support a German-style higher education system that selects and sends those best suited on to college for professional or STEM degrees. That said, "higher education" in America joins the legal and medical industries as vampires on the future of America.

The statistics presented in this article are a typical fiction of the academic industry, to bolster their case for "more money!" ... of course. How about a comparison of the poverty statistics between two German-style comparable groups: college graduates vs journeyman graduates of apprenticeship programs?

An apprenticeship in the IBEW generally lasts 6 years, during which the apprentice is a) being paid a living wage, with benefits, b) is being trained in a highly technical field with steady and reliable demand, and c) gaining skills that can be parlayed in a number of different ways ('side jobs', move into management, entrepreneurship). During the 6 years apprenticeship, it would be reasonable to estimate the apprentice earns around $200,000, graduating not only debt free, but possibly a homeowner to boot.

A journeyman IBEW electrician will make $70,000 - $100,000 a year with benefits and retirement.

But she'd still just be "a high school graduate". American needs people who know how to do things: certified welders and radiology technicians. America does not need any more undifferentiated liberal arts undergraduates from non-elite colleges.

Here's the deal life offers everyone: believe what you want, act on it, and reap the results.
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10:02 AM on 09/20/2011
That make just to much common sence, so you know the U.S. govt. and business would never go for it. F&F
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Mrald
Not to decide....is to decide.
10:34 AM on 09/20/2011
Very well written and it does make a lot of sense.