Youth Movement Or Senior Moment?

Despite all the well-deserved talk about Barack Obama's pull with younger voters, it is surprising how little attention has been paid to his relative lack of appeal with older voters.  This is a particularly meaningful omission given how much the aging of America's population weighs on the near future of just about every major program managed by the federal government, most notably Social Security and Medicare.

Given this demographic fact -- which occupied so much of our attention during George W. Bush's tenure -- it may come as a surprise that Barack Obama is significantly behind Hillary Clinton with voters aged 65 and older.

This pattern was particularly clear in the exit polling conducted on Super Tuesday. According to the polling data for 16 of the 24 Super Tuesday states, as made public by CNN, Obama did not carry the 65 and older vote in a single state.  His best turnout in this category was a 48%-48% tie with Clinton in Illinois -- Obama's home state. The opposite is also true.  Obama trounced Clinton with voters 18-24 in just about every Super Tuesday state. 

The key factor in these numbers, however, is the percentage of the overall vote represented by the two age categories.  Here again, Super Tuesday revealed a pattern.  In the overall turnout for Democrats, the 18-24 age group typically made up only 7%-8% of the overall vote, while the 65 and over age group typically made up 20%-22% of the vote.

While the Obama campaign and the media push a narrative about a youth movement driving the election, that may not be the case after all.  It seems just as reasonable to conclude that the youth movement -- while important and inspiring -- is being overshadowed statistically by a senior moment several times larger.

But if this trend is so easy to figure out by looking at a few exit polls, why is it so under reported by the media?

The answer may be that the big media newsrooms covering the 2008 primary season would rather keep reporting the Obama campaign's undeniably infectious message of 'hope and change,' than put their noses to the grindstone on the more onerous policy proposals that speak to concerns of senior citizens.

Why should reporters write about the liquidity of the Social Security trust, prescription drug plans, Medicare co-payment proposals, and predatory lending safeguards when they can just repost a YouTube video by Will.I.Am (it's a great video--I like it, too)?

Why should reporters do hard research on the mounting financial fears amongst seniors needing long-term hospice, assisted living, and independent living when they can run a story about the Super Bowl ad the Obama campaign ran.

And why should reporters go into the field and interview seniors citizens -- asking them about their hopes and the things they want changed -- when they can continue to run the same handful of stories about a candidate who is shaking up America by appealing to young voters.

Barack Obama's appeal amongst young voters is an inspiring story.  It is a long overdue and heartfelt story welcome amongst all but the most cynical of Americans on both sides of the political spectrum.   The media has done a great job reporting it.

But America's seniors also have a story to tell that is of central importance to this election season.  And its high time the media started reporting it.

(Cross posted from Frameshop)

Follow Jeffrey Feldman on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JeffreyFeldman

Comments

[vsign]

It is obvious McCain wants Obama as the democratic candidate!!

Why does the media keep telling us the republicans and McCain want Hillary? He wants Obama - he knows he can beat Obama. I will not give Obama the red button and I'm a democrat! Lots of people will vote for McCain over Obama because he would make us feel safer than Obama ever could.

[vsign]

If Obama won't debate Hillary - the media needs to make him debate McCain NOW so we can make an intelligent decisiion as voters on our nominee.

The republicans are playing it just right. Make sure Obama is the nominee and then tell us voters how stupid we are for selecting the "affirmative action" candidate. After all, us democratic voters never made him to answer any hard questions. Not any questions like McCain has for him.

I think Edwards should SUE the media for not giving us voters a level playing field to judge our candidates. We do not want affirmative action anymore. Obama thinks he's so likeable, we'll just "adopt" him for president.

Obama is preaching to our youth that his DNA as president would "set them free". What does mixed ethnicity have to do with being a good president?

[vsign]

The days of affirmative action are over. I resent the media not giving a level playing field to the voters so we can decide for ourselves who we want to hire for the job of president. Obama has insisted on affirmative action - playing the sympathy card in S Carolina. But then the media kept it up for so long!! For goodness sake, give us a level playing field between Obama and Hillary!

We need to judge the characters of each of them - judge "the content of their characters". We can't do that unless there is a level playing field.

[criscokid]

Each time I hear the chant "Yes We Can!" I reply "How Can We?" I'm part of the boomer generation and have been an activist since 1968. I have participated in protests both physically and via the internet. I have written members of Congress, some of which reply. I campaign for those less fortunate, and donate money to non-profit causes I believe in. But I have yet to hear how Obama believes he can "change" the system. And he is naive to believe he won't be faced with a determined Republican party who will not just sign on to his platform issues.

I do recall in Kennedy's endorsement speech, he got all riled up saying that Obama will not only break the mold, together they will shatter it into a million pieces. Then after seeing the voter results from MA primary, I guess that won't be happening too easily.

I heard Obama in the last debate talk about having Universal Health Care negotiations broadcast on C-SPAN so the people can see what their choices are. What happens then? Do we vote like on "American Idol" for our favorite? If a member of Congress from another state makes a strong case against, I can't vote that person out of office.

So all I ask is "How Can We?" I think it's a reasonable question that should be answered before giving Obama my vote.

[GhostOfSchlesinger]

INTERESTING anecdotal intel moments ago . . .

A telemarketer called - a kind African-American woman doing the sort of job that many Americans couldn't stick with for more than a week.

At the end of our conversation, I found out she was calling from Texas.

I suggested that she vote for Barack Obama in the upcoming primary.

AND . . .

She stumbled over his name in reply, honestly admitting that she's never heard of him. She told me she works a swing shift, has a large family, and is in the midst of some major financial challenges . . .

So, she told me, she has little time for television and had planned on voting for Hillary.

The point of this story isn't to say something negative about the American voter. It's not the fault of folks that they don't have as much time to participate as they'd like.

HOWEVER, I would say that this anecdote, when combined with the fact that OBAMA does well WHEREVER PEOPLE MEET HIM FACE TO FACE - and by a HUGE margin - offers telling evidence of the truth behind all the stories about OBAMA doing poorly with group X or group Y.

What it says is that OBAMA is a new face and the Clinton's are an established brand - AND that ONCE VOTERS KNOW THE CANDIDATES they tend to pick OBAMA.

CONTINUED BELOW . . .

[BionicWoman]

Us older folks have been around long enough to know the difference between talk and action. These kids have grown up spoiled in a world filled with advantages. Well, us older folks didn't! Us women worked for unfair pay - raised kids on our own and spent out lives subordinated by the man who said "I will give you the stars and moon" and then disappeared when the going got tough. Bosses took advantage and none of us ever got ahead. We have seen politician make promises - election after election - and not one was ever fulfilled. So when a slick used car salesman comes a-calling, we know better than to make fools of ourselves and wreck the country!

[TruthLives]

The problem lies in the news media.. it certainly is a more vivid picture on tv to see young fanantical raving youngsters waving placards, then it is interviewing the elderly who really make up more of the voting populace.. I'm sure many of those younger voters that are making a super rock star of Obama, will probably have better things to do on election day than voting as has always been the case.. The news media today looks for heroes and they think they have found one in Obama.. We once again need to make the media more responsible to the reading, listening and viewing public. Their job is to inform so the public can make sane and rational decisions not only in elections but also in every facit of american life. We defend the right of a free press... now let them once again work to earn it...

[vsign]

I'm heartbroken. I feel something wonderful and powerful for us as a country is being taken away from us. Hillary is so prepared to be our president and would do the job of keeping us safe. And might even be able to clean up the mess we are being left with. We have one chance to get it right and it is being taken away by a con man. I want to thank Bill as well, for being ready and willing to help us. He tried to make people think in New Hampshire. The media stepped in and has manipulated the narrative and message, with the encouragement of Obama playing his race and sympathy cards so well - for 10 days now - two weeks? - why can't anyone do anything!

How can we fight the good battle? He's a fake! Why isn't anyone saying anything?? No one is even asking him any hard questions! Reminds me of the media messages we got to vote for Bush/Cheney and then to go to war in Iraq.

Hillary and Bill have already been tutored on the red button. I can't believe Obama will get the majority of the people to trust him with the red button. I won't be one of them. I can't do it. I would be more afraid with him than even Bush/Cheney or a republican. I think he is that immature and unprepared and clever. It has been really hard to test his character - given so little time since his announcement and his surge. The media won't help.

It is his character that counts.
There is something wrong with his character when he conducts his campaign the way he does (as an above it all - religious man), encouraging the thousands of our youth to believe only in him. How many parents are being persuaded by their children to vote for Obama?

[ruffian]

this bears out what I have seen in local rural NY-the backbone voters are the "older" (45-75) women who back Hillary and to a one they all said they dont trust Obama because of lack of expirience-and history. Do not underestimate the power of this group. We are loyal, hard working and we vote!!

[zjr909]

If it's change people want...boy have I got a candidate for you! He has almost single handedly effected more change than almost any president in American history. His name is...George W. Bush. And he's living proof that when you wish for change, be very very careful what you wish for. I think I'm on safe ground saying ALL the change he's wrought has been for the worse. But he sure as hell did change things, nobody can deny him that. Without him, we'd still have habeas corpus; but we wouldn't have torture; we wouldn't have official spying on us; we wouldn't have indefinite detention; we wouldn't have unprovoked invasion of sovereign nations. In short, without Mr Bush, we'd still have our Constitution intact. Now I feel sure that any change Obama brings about if he's our next president would be for the better; but I can't be sure. I'm a 60-plus citizen, just a stone's throw away from retirement. And Obama says Social Security needs to be fixed: music to Republican ears to be sure. And Obama vows to stop this partisan bickering and work across the aisle. If you want to see working with Republicans in action, just watch good ol' Harry Reid cave in time after time. Yeah, it's so easy to work with Republicans - even Obama could do it. No thanks, I want one thing and one thing only in our next president: a pledge to undo the work of our last great president of change.

[mamacat]

Seniors and Youth and everyone in between, including the fair minded rich, should join together to bring good government back to our country.

[HaroldB]

Nobody wants to talk about gray haired babyboom hyppies that have run this country for the last 30 years.

tha babyboomers have made the mes we are in now its time for the younger generation to stand up and clean up.

Born in 1972 ;)

[realitytrumpsbull]

I think, on the healthcare thing, they ought to consider the Poor Bas.... Act, and build 1 state facility per state, or designate one, that will basically be the place for charity cases to go to.

To maximize resources, to make sure that EVERYone has a shot at SOMEthing, you gotta have: a facility, trained people, supplies and equipment, electricity, and a license to operate. That's basically it.

As far as the rest of it goes, I think the candidates should come up with common policies that show favoritism toward none, but seek to accomplish goals that will be beneficial towards many, hopefully all.

[doctor4]

Like other groups Obama isn't supposed to appeal to, his appeal to seniors--and I expect you mean white and Latino seniors-- will grow with each primary.
Seniors care about the future,too.

[Ides]

Obama's also got a significant lead among those from 24-44 and is within the margin of error for baby boomers.

Interestingly enough, the ONLY candidate to even mention the specific issues of seniors is Obama. No doubt this is partly why he gets 38% of the senior vote.

But what if it's simpler than that? Seniors disproportionately like experience. Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton are, in fact, senior citizens themselves. They could simply be voting for someone who looks like them.