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Jeffrey Rubin

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Is Gold a Safe Haven From a Greek Default?

Posted: 09/21/11 04:49 PM ET

When virtually every global financial institution is exposed to one other in today's world of free flowing capital markets, where do you hide when bankrupt borrowers like Greece default?

Certainly not in French banks, which have lost almost half of their share value over the past year due to their Greek exposure. And if French banks go down, the country's credit status could get downgraded.

That would not be good news for German taxpayers, who, according to the terms of the Eurozone's Stability and Growth Pack, would have to shell out an even bigger share of the mounting costs of the bail-outs for the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) than they are already shouldering. With German taxpayers frustrated at sending so much of their good money chasing bad, they are unlikely to want to open up their wallets any more than they already have.

Until the Euro loses its PIIGS, it is going to remain a troubled currency, with growing dissention among the ranks of the 17 member monetary union.

But across the Atlantic, the U.S. dollar is no more attractive a sanctuary from the shockwaves reverberating around global debt markets. The U.S. banks are not vulnerable to the contagion effects of a debt default by the PIIGS but Washington has some major league debt issues of its own.

The fact that so much of America's debt is now foreign-owned makes devaluation of the U.S. dollar intrinsically appealing to the U.S. Treasury.

That leaves gold, which once again becomes the de facto global currency and the safest sanctuary from the risk of sovereign debt defaults. For all intents and purposes, gold has become the other side of the trade for everybody who wants to bail out of U.S. dollars.

What makes gold so appealing in today's unsettled currency markets is unlike the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc, which saw their country's central banks quickly push back when their currencies were getting too strong for their economy's liking, gold has no one central bank to lean against the wind.

As well, gold has no export sector upon which the livelihood of millions of workers depends upon the competitiveness of their exchange rate. In today's world of faltering economic growth and rising unemployment, these are admirable qualities for a currency or, in this case, a surrogate currency to hold.

 

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When virtually every global financial institution is exposed to one other in today's world of free flowing capital markets, where do you hide when bankrupt borrowers like Greece default? Certainly no...
When virtually every global financial institution is exposed to one other in today's world of free flowing capital markets, where do you hide when bankrupt borrowers like Greece default? Certainly no...
 
 
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07:39 PM on 09/22/2011
Gold has very little intrinsic value. It's used for high-end electronics and some chemical processes. Other than that's it's just a fairly inert shiny metal used for vanity purchases and as a proxy for money. I always find it funny when people want currency backed by gold. Currency today is the ability of a nation to repay in goods or services. That's something very real. It can be variable especially if the country decides to devalue their currency but it is real.

Gold is essentially a dogmatic fall back position. We think it's currency because our parents thought it was currency. Sort of like religion. It may be, and has been so far this year, a good investment position. However one of my firm beliefs is that gold has almost no intrinsic value to society. It's a philosophical position more than anything. I have no respect for people who sing the virtues of gold. From a labor standpoint, almost every person mining gold is useless to the world. I would rather hold something useful like aluminum or iron if I really wanted to hold a commodity.
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07:05 PM on 09/25/2011
Gold is the universal currency that all other currencies are measured against. It is universally recognized as a store of value - and has been for centuries.
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07:19 PM on 09/25/2011
You should ask yourself why is it that governments and dictators hoard gold. For religious reasons? HA! Try to remember that gold is not an "investment", it is a storage place for wealth when there are no "good" investments. The price of gold does not fluctuate, it remains stable while all other instruments rise or fall relative to it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DocJoseph
A bleeding heart will heal; a cold heart will not
01:46 PM on 09/22/2011
My only problem with gold is the "exchange rate." I pay 4% to buy it, about 4% to sell it, and there are those potential shipping, handling and insurance charges. To break even, the price would have to increase about 10%.

Well, then there's the problem of where to put it. For small investors (which most of us are), safe's cost as much as the gold, and fees for bank storage drain the value of the investment.

And, should the real concern come to pass (End of Life as We Know It), land will matter more than gold, and food as much as land. Imagine paying one ounce of gold for a ham sandwich because you're starving.

But it's pretty.
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07:12 PM on 09/25/2011
You've got it backwards Doc. If the unspeakable should come to pass, you will need a dump truck full of the pieces of colored paper that we call "money" to buy that ham sandwich while an ounce of gold will buy you a whole fleet of dump trucks loaded with ham sandwiches. Gold is the ultimate and universal store of value. That's why governments and dictators hoard it.
06:09 AM on 09/22/2011
I saw two seemingly incongruous gold news stories yesterday. The first concerned a massive gold vault in Singapore that is filled to the roof after just one year of operation. It has been besieged by new bullion owners, all ready to pay up to one percent of their holdings each year to keep their metal safe from thieves, earthquakes and plane crashes. Other such vaults are already under construction elsewhere in the world. The second story concerned the world’s third largest gold miner who plans to dig five kilometres below ground to unlock as much as 70 million ounces (2,177 tonnes) of gold. The exploitation will use new technology and risk no lives, but it will nonetheless require that 136,000,000 tonnes of rock be brought to the surface.[1]Am I the only one who can see the logic in selling the gold buried in the rock directly to investors, but then simply leaving it right where it is?

see "The World’s Surest Gold Vault" http://www.unexpectedutility.com/investing/the-worlds-surest-gold-vault
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DocJoseph
A bleeding heart will heal; a cold heart will not
01:48 PM on 09/22/2011
Reminds me of that island culture that decided huge rocks would be money. The rocks never moved, but to "change hands" required an agreement.
08:49 PM on 09/21/2011
Gold is gold. It isn't money. Its value or worth is entirely dependent upon what the next guy is willing to offer in exchange for some. Same as tulip mania really.
02:56 AM on 09/22/2011
Hmmm.... How is it that you can't apply the same logic to pieces of paper with colored ink printed on them? A dollar's worth is also entirely dependent upon what the next guy is willing to offer in exchange for some.

Dictionary.com says:
mon·ey   [muhn-ee] noun
1. any circulating medium of exchange, including coins, paper money, and demand deposits.

Wikipedia says:
Money is any object or record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts in a given country or socio-economic context. The main functions of money are distinguished as: a medium of exchange; a unit of account; a store of value; and, occasionally in the past, a standard of deferred payment. Any kind of object or secure verifiable record that fulfills these functions can serve as money.

Please, please, please learn more about what money is and how it is made.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money
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muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
05:55 AM on 09/22/2011
yes but everyone should look and see WHO is printing these Fiat dollars and charging us interest on them from day one...most Americans have no clue....WHO THE FED IS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI
10:25 PM on 09/22/2011
I know how money is created and it is not by a printer. Fiat money is created with each bank loan but each bank loan is BACKED by a sellable asset (house, car etc.) and the pledge to create something in the future.

Gold is backed by a COLOR and nothing more.