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Jeffrey Sachs

Jeffrey Sachs

Posted: August 2, 2010 09:42 AM

Making Sense of the Climate Impasse

What's Your Reaction:

All signs suggest that the planet is still hurtling headlong toward climatic disaster. The United States' National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its "State of the Climate Report" covering January-May. The first five months of this year were the warmest on record going back to 1880. May was the warmest month ever. Intense heat waves are currently hitting many parts of the world. Yet still we fail to act.

There are several reasons for this, and we should understand them in order to break today's deadlock. First, the economic challenge of controlling human-induced climate change is truly complex. Human-induced climate change stems from two principal sources of emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide): fossil-fuel use for energy and agriculture (including deforestation to create new farmland and pastureland).

Changing the world's energy and agricultural systems is no small matter. It is not enough to just wave our hands and declare that climate change is an emergency. We need a practical strategy for overhauling two economic sectors that stand at the center of the global economy and involve the entire world's population.

The second major challenge in addressing climate change is the complexity of the science itself. Today's understanding of Earth's climate and the human-induced component of climate change is the result of extremely difficult scientific work involving many thousands of scientists in all parts of the world. This scientific understanding is incomplete, and there remain significant uncertainties about the precise magnitudes, timing and dangers of climate change.

The general public naturally has a hard time grappling with this complexity and uncertainty, especially since the changes in climate are occurring over a timetable of decades and centuries, rather than months and years. Moreover, year-to-year and even decade-to-decade natural variations in climate are intermixed with human-induced climate change, making it even more difficult to target damaging behavior.

This has given rise to a third problem in addressing climate change, which stems from a combination of the economic implications of the issue and the uncertainty that surrounds it. This is reflected in the brutal, destructive campaign against climate science by powerful vested interests and ideologues, apparently aimed at creating an atmosphere of ignorance and confusion.

The Wall Street Journal, for example, America's leading business newspaper, has run an aggressive editorial campaign against climate science for decades. The individuals involved in this campaign are not only scientifically uninformed, but show absolutely no interest in becoming better informed. They have turned down repeated offers by climate scientists to meet and conduct serious discussions about the issues.

Major oil companies and other big corporate interests also are playing this game, and have financed disreputable public-relations campaigns against climate science. Their general approach is to exaggerate the uncertainties of climate science and to leave the impression that climate scientists are engaged in some kind of conspiracy to frighten the public. It is an absurd charge, but absurd charges can curry public support if presented in a slick, well-funded format.

If we add up these three factors -- the enormous economic challenge of reducing greenhouse gases, the complexity of climate science, and deliberate campaigns to confuse the public and discredit the science -- we arrive at the fourth and overarching problem: U.S. politicians' unwillingness or inability to formulate a sensible climate-change policy.

The U.S. bears disproportionate responsibility for inaction on climate change, because it was long the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, until last year, when China overtook it. Even today, per capita U.S. emissions are more than four times higher than China's. Yet, despite America's central role in global emissions, the U.S. Senate has done nothing about climate change since ratifying the United Nations climate-change treaty 16 years ago.

When Barack Obama was elected U.S. president, there was hope for progress. Yet, while it is clear that Obama would like to move forward on the issue, so far he has pursued a failed strategy of negotiating with senators and key industries to try to forge an agreement. Yet the special-interest groups have dominated the process, and Obama has failed to make any headway.

The Obama administration should have tried -- and should still try -- an alternative approach. Instead of negotiating with vested interests in the backrooms of the White House and Congress, Obama should present a coherent plan to the American people. He should propose a sound strategy over the next 20 years for reducing America's dependence on fossil fuels, converting to electric vehicles, and expanding non-carbon energy sources such as solar and wind power. He could then present an estimated price tag for phasing in these changes over time, and demonstrate that the costs would be modest compared with the enormous benefits.

Strangely, despite being a candidate of change, Obama has not taken the approach of presenting real plans of action for change. His administration is trapped more and more in the paralyzing grip of special-interest groups. Whether this is an intended outcome, so that Obama and his party can continue to mobilize large campaign contributions, or the result of poor decision-making is difficult to determine -- and may reflect a bit of both.

What is clear is that we are courting disaster as a result. Nature doesn't care about our political machinations. And nature is telling us that our current economic model is dangerous and self-defeating. Unless we find some real global leadership in the next few years, we will learn that lesson in the hardest ways possible.

This article first appeared in Project Syndicate.

For more information on climate change please check The State of the Planet blog.

 
 
 

Follow Jeffrey Sachs on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jeffdsachs

 
 
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10:21 PM on 08/04/2010
Glock19 said "How about a huge dose of common sense to go with all the ideological histeria.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOOc5yiIWkg"

So I watched it; it's worth watching.

Carlin has a point when he says that Environmentalists are selfish, because underlying a supposed concern for the health of the planet is a very self-centered desire for the continuation of the human species.

As he says, "The planet has been here four and a half billion years. We've been here, what, a hundred thousand? And we've only been engaged in heavy industry for a little over two hundred years. Two hundred years versus four and a half billion. And we have the CONCEIT to think that somehow we're a threat? ....the planet isn't going anywhere. WE ARE! .... The planet will be here for a long, long, LONG time after we're gone, and it will heal itself, it will cleanse itself, 'cause that's what it does. It's a self-correcting system."

So why worry, our contribution to global warming will be corrected by the planet. It's not going to go extinct, we are. The planet will get rid of us just that much sooner.
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ReedYoung
global mean temperature, obviously INCREASING
02:53 PM on 08/18/2010
George Carlin's job was to be funny, and in my opinion, he was very good at it. But the facts disprove his assumption in that rant, that the Earth is doing just fine and it's only the humans who are in trouble. That just isn't true. Carlin was wrong.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/17/un-environment-programme-_n_684562.html
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Chris 1
08:40 AM on 08/04/2010
quick link;

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/other/Robinson_Soon.pdf

Then there is Dr. Lindzen, democrat;

http://www.newsweek.com/2001/07/22/the-truth-about-global-warming.html

But you're all so much better trained than he? Correct?
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11:31 AM on 08/04/2010
Should read "no scientific training"! Of course I think that's obvious :)
06:02 AM on 09/02/2010
Chris 1:

To quote "Deep Throat" follow the money. Dr. Lindzen was paid 2500 dollars per day for his services by oil and coal interests. One of his articles was underwritten by OPEC. He has worked for a think tank almost exclusively by Exxon Mobil. His work on satellite data was shown to be totally false. For an article with links see:
http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptics/Lindzen.htm. But I suppose Newsweek is better informed than the National Academy of Science.
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danceswithtrees
12:51 AM on 08/04/2010
We need a serious energy policy that takes all factors into mind. Mostly we need cheap abundant energy from multiple sources. We need nuclear and natural gas to rise to the forefront of enegy sources. We need to get off foreign oil and depend on America to supply our energy needs. Bring the jobs home and have affordable energy for our hurting citizens.
09:47 PM on 08/03/2010
While I have no doubt of global warming due to CO2, the disaster theories have all been debunked. We're never going to pass the meaningful type of legislation that the author wants. Politically impossible. Even if not, the rest of the world is only going to step up carbon emissions. It's time to get serious about the future by devoting our efforts to strategies to adapt to the inevitable. Let's get real for a change
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MadAs
Tuned-in science editor
12:21 AM on 08/04/2010
Nothing makes one look sillier and stupider than to linger behind the inevitable progress of science and knowledge and the possibilities if sponsors.

Put another way: Our platform to save our planet is ours until we yield it to those whose vision of the future is to profit from the earth's demise.
09:18 PM on 08/03/2010
I have yet to hear what the compassionate greenies propose to do about the tens of thousands of coal miners who would be thrown out of work in areas where there is no other industry. These same greenies will prevent any "smart grid" from being built because it might upset some tiny insect or disease carrying rodent.

How about using some common sense. Sure, go ahead and encourage the development of clean energy technologies. In the meantime, drill for our own oil and natural gas so we can lessen our dependence on foreign sources, and assure that we have adequate energy supplies until the clean energy technologies are developed to an economically viable level.

There is no need to kill millions more jobs and force people to start burning wood for heat.
09:37 PM on 08/03/2010
But that would be using common sense ad the Greens are short on that.
08:16 PM on 08/03/2010
I've been a CPA for nearly 40 years. The author makes absolutely no points and turns off the majority of the voting public by stating "And nature is telling us that our current economic model is dangerous and self-defeating." Something that could have come straight from the Communist Dogma.

Until Obama got into office, and he is a one term-term anyway, our capitalist system worked. Yes, the USA uses 25% of the worldwide energy produced but the US domestic produict is 23% of the worldwide product.

The enviro movement has had its time and is on the way out, much like the hula hoop,
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MadAs
Tuned-in science editor
11:01 AM on 08/04/2010
You don't seem to have figured out dlkeller, that you actually are Rip Van Winkle.

For 40 years you've been looking at all those little tiny numbers, putting them in nice little columns, and adding and subtracting them into bottom lines of bigger numbers.

Wow. No wonder you haven't a clue about what is going on. Suggest you get a hula hoop and let'r rip Rip.
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ReedYoung
global mean temperature, obviously INCREASING
02:34 PM on 08/18/2010
It is simply untrue that "until Obama got into office, and he is a one term-term anyway, our capitalist system worked."

http://www.thenation.com/article/henry-paulsons-shell-game
Henry Paulson's Shell Game
The emerging compromise on the bailout is better than Paulson's original proposal, but falls far short of what needs to be done. Congress and the next president will have a lot more work to do.
Joseph E. Stiglitz
This article appeared in the October 13, 2008 edition of The Nation.

That was nearly a month before President Obama was even ELECTED, and more than three months before he was inaugurated. The current economic depression is all Bush's fault, and the fact that it hasn't improved more is all the fault of Senate Republicans.
07:58 PM on 08/03/2010
There is no scientific evidence indicating that carbon trading schemes could ever have a significant effect on the economy. I must say that they approach recommended by Bjorn Borg is much more logical.

I don't fault those who are convinced that humans are the primary cause of climate warming.
08:31 PM on 08/03/2010
You probably mean Bjørn Lomborg unless you're talking about tennis? Lomborg was raised in the esoteric tradition, he's neither an economist nor a climate researcher.
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Chris 1
07:50 PM on 08/03/2010
Correlation is not causation, there are dozens of key weather variables.
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Chris 1
05:55 PM on 08/03/2010
With little empirical evidence relating co2 to warming we are left with the venting of those who need a statist solution to fulfill their bias and needs.

We should really get better studies of the alledged concensus and their many common political and economic traits. I think common sense tells us what it would show, you read the NYTimes as if it was reality, think FDR was great and we need more government on most everything impacting society.

It's become really old, the cult is coming to an end in November. Get use to the idea, I only hope we have trials for those involved in the outright fraud associated to this junk science agenda and the wealth redistribution motive behind it.
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07:25 PM on 08/03/2010
Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to absorb more infrared radiation as it escapes back out to space.
http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/09/25/papers-on-laboratory-measurements-of-co2-absorption-properties/
Direct observations find that CO2 is rising sharply due to human activity.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html
http://radioviceonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/knorr2009_co2_sequestration.pdf
Satellite and surface measurements find less energy is escaping to space at CO2 absorption wavelengths. There is an increased greenhouse effect on Earth.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v410/n6826/abs/410355a0.html
http://spiedl.aip.org/getabs/servlet/GetabsServlet?prog=normal&id=PSISDG005543000001000164000001&idtype=cvips&gifs=yes&ref=no
http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/index.htm
Ocean and surface temperature measurements find the planet continues to accumulate heat.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JD012105.shtml
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JC005237.shtml

There is plenty of empirical evidence to support AGW. I have provided but a small fraction. No venting required.
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Chris 1
12:27 AM on 08/04/2010
Want links?

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=da&sl=da&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.videnskab.dk%2Fcomposite-4862.htm

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/08/97-consensus-is-only-76-self-selected.html

Regarding the hackery of warmists;

http://www.examiner.com/x-9111-Environmental-Policy-Examiner~y2010m8d3-Hiding-the-decline-at-Real-Climate

How the left conduct debate;

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog

Real science wouldn't depend on mass politics to convince non-science people on political policy. Science isn't a dictatorship, warmist behave like Aztec priests throwing children into a pit for the good of crop results with about as much evidence.

It should be remembered that the statist solutions of left actually kill people, especially poor people all over the world through rationing and lower growth. The fraud is obvious and they should be face international trial.
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MadAs
Tuned-in science editor
12:36 AM on 08/04/2010
I've increasingly noticed that more and more squirrel nutters gravitate to the global warming posts and load it up with their flat-earth could-care-less grasshopper ideologies (or is that spelled idiotologies).

Presumably informed folks with a mind and a genuine concern for stewardship have left the sinking ship here and moved to more worthwhile opportunities for meaningful discourse. (So Nick, be a little more protective of those sites, but fanned anyway.)
05:37 PM on 08/03/2010
Regarding NOAA's 2010 hottest ever- see this for a look at the actual data: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/NOAA_JanJun2010.htm

Jeffrey Sachs wants to tax the world to grow the UN: see this showing his statements indicating that wealth distribution is his concern - not climate: http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/DoubleStandard.htm#propaganda

(apparently embedded links don't come through so I reposted with the explicit urls).
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ReedYoung
global mean temperature, obviously INCREASING
02:47 PM on 08/18/2010
I've seen your website before, but not the source code. Real scientists don't hide their calculations.
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ReedYoung
global mean temperature, obviously INCREASING
12:43 PM on 08/19/2010
Ping.

Got source code? Yes or no.
05:23 PM on 08/03/2010
When you read some of the comments posted below, it is clear that the climate change denial industry is very effective. If we fail to get our heads out of the sand, people will remember Americans of the early twenty-first century as the most selfish and pig-headed cretins who ever walked the planet. Note to some of the people who post here: NOT EVERYTHING ON THE INTERNET IS TRUE. And just because something has a prestigious-sounding name like Heritage Foundation or American Enterprise Institute doesn't mean it has any integrity.
05:36 PM on 08/03/2010
http://www.oism.org/pproject/
05:15 PM on 08/03/2010
Regarding NOAA's 2010 hottest ever: see this for a look at the actual data.
Jeffrey Sachs wants to tax the world to grow the UN: see this showing his statements indicating that wealth distribution is his concern - not climate.
04:49 PM on 08/03/2010
It is only a "climate impasse" if you buy all of these propositions:

* Humans are able to raise or lower Earth's temperature simply by burning more or less fossil fuel;

* Earth is not only warming, but at such a high rate that humans are unable to cope with it;

* It will somehow help America to transfer trillions of our dollars to third world countries;

* Doubling or tripling our energy costs will not ruin America's economy;

* And we should do all of the above even though we will shortly be third in energy consumption, and numbers one and two will do none of the above.
05:12 PM on 08/03/2010
The first proposition is uncontroversial, if not incontrovertible, among scientists (not funded by petroleum corporations) who study the climate.
Among other things, publications in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences predict a loss of 40% of our agricultural capabilities as the climate warms. The world will (not to mention the US economy) will have a hard time adapting to such a significant loss of productivity in the most agriculturally-productive country on the planet.
How will changing energy sources transfer more money out of the country than the trillions we currently spend on oil?
The only alternative energy source that costs "double or triple" what oil and coal cost is nuclear. Look it up.
We will remain first in per capita energy consumption for the foreseeable future. Personal responsibility, anyone? How about moral leadership?
05:33 PM on 08/03/2010
"How will changing energy sources transfer more money out of the country than the trillions we currently spend on oil?

Imported oil has nothing to do with domestic power production. When you are talking about switching to wind and solar you are talking about moving away from coal, natural gas, and nuclear. A typical basket of power generated from those traditional sources costs around $20/mWh. Wind (onshore) costs double that at its cheapest and triple that at its average range. Solar costs ten times as much. Any significant movement towards these energy sources will dramatically raise the price of power. That in turn will add to the incentives for companies to relocate facilities to countries that don't have artificially high energy costs. If we want the developing world to also raise their energy costs, we are gonig to have to pay the increased costs as was plainly laid out at Copenhagen. That is the transfer of trillions.
04:17 PM on 08/03/2010
How about a huge dose of common sense to go with all the ideological histeria.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOOc5yiIWkg
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kucheka
04:47 PM on 08/03/2010
Evidence = Ideology these days? Of course it does. Screw stewardship, eh?
03:21 PM on 08/03/2010
The problem with arbitrarily raising the price of energy is you are also raising the cost of growth and pushing businesses to places with lower costs of doing business. Yes the US uses 4 times the energy per person compared with China as Mr. Sachs points out, but we also have a GNP that is $48,000 per person compared to China's $6,000 per person. Growth in energy consumption has historically been a tremendously positive thing for society. Minus the assumed net negative effects of climate change, there is every reason to believe that that trend will continue. So domestically you have to make the case that switching to renewables for domestic power production is worth the decreased growth and business flight that will result. I have never heard anyone come close to doing that.
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MadAs
Tuned-in science editor
10:49 AM on 08/04/2010
Well said. But shallow, very shallow. The transition to renewables will not slow growth: It is the only hope we have for future growth.

Keep in mind JM that as the world's gullibility in supplying its cash to our Gaming Industry (i.e., the Banksters) dries up and Wall Street's paper-shuffling shell-gamers start jumping out of windows we should expect them to take with them about half of their charade that funds our current GNP.

Do you think the "Made in America" hype is going to do provide growth and stop the hemorrhaging of US job blood to cheap-labor countries? So without the banksters the most significant growth opportunities out there are in the green technology arena.