The Republicans need to rally around John Kasich and they need to do it now if they have any hope of winning the general election. There is no time to wait until things play out, because the way things look they will play out badly for the GOP. Badly for the presidential election and badly down the line. The Senate will be gone and the House will be at risk.
How the Election Plays Out From Here:
Trump and Cruz will split the anger vote, which seems to be just around 45 percent, but Trump will edge Cruz out. The three establishment candidates will continue to hit each other and split the electability vote. All except for Governor Kasich have the resources to fight for months. In state after state they will each get in double digits. No one has enough support to win, but most have enough support to stay in, hoping for a one-on-one battle. Thus we will probably go to the convention with Trump leading in delegates, but not having enough to secure the nomination, the ensuing fight will lose the minority and independent vote for a generation.
I don't know if the establishment does conference calls, but if so they need to get together and rally behind the adult in the room asap. That adult is Governor John Kasich. I am talking to you Roger Ailes, Rush Limbaugh, Koch Brothers, Senator Mitchell, Speaker Ryan and Montgomery Burns. Here are our three reason why.
Jeb! is Never Going to Win But He Will Continue:
Jeb is hopelessly establishment in a time when that is simply unacceptable. The fact of the matter is that someone running on his record as Governor of Florida over a decade ago, with his personality, but a different last name, would not stand a chance. But he is a Bush, therefore has the money and infrastructure to keep going. His hope is that if it gets down to him and Trump he can win. So he will stick it out and continue to split the electability vote, but never will have enough appeal to win. For the good of the party, Jeb must just drop out now.
Rubio is Damaged Beyond Saving But He Will Continue:
Maybe it was Governor Christie's attack in the debate that Rubio is just a political stump speech with nice hair. Maybe it was Senator Santorum's 'well he hasn't actually accomplished anything' endorsement. But Rubio has money and he is a brilliant orator, and also thinks if it gets down to him and Trump he can win. However the line of attack on Senator Rubio is too clear and he has no rebuttal, because it is true. For the good of the party, Marco must drop out now. However, young, charismatic, latino from a swing state has VP written all over it...
Trump and Cruz Will Cause Havoc Down the Line and They Will Fight to Cleveland:
Neither Trump or Cruz can win. They both are big men in little tents. Their negative ratings are too high, their positions and approaches too divisive. However, neither will drop out for the good of the party as part of their appeal is that they hate the party. They will attack each other, they will attack the establishment, they will attack anything that they want, in a scorched earth approach that will leave Republican voters at home and independents flocking to the Democrats. They both have money and conviction, and will continue to Cleveland.
Thus GOP Must Unite ASAP Behind the Guy Who Can Win:
The only way to stop Cruz and Trump is to rally around the uninspiring, no-sound-byte, rather moderate and bridge building, boring Governor of Ohio. However, the sad reality is the in today's theatrical, big donor fueled political environment, Governor Kasich needs help and he needs it quickly. He needs super-donors to start funding him. I am talking to you Ken Griffin ($3 million to Marco), Hank Greenberg ($10 million to Jeb), Paul Singer ($3 million to Marco), Miguel Fernandez ($3 million to Jeb) and Norman Braman ($6 million to Marco). And of course to the most important uncommitted donors the Koch Brothers and Sheldon Adelson. For the fun of it let's get a Governor Mitt Romney endorsement. (To be clear, I think all the mass donations in politics is an abomination but it's what the law allows now and Governor Kasich needs it or he won't make it in this race).
If Kasich fades after SC, you will have four people that will split the vote, not drop out and bring the GOP to ruin. If you rally behind Kasich and he wins SC, Jeb and Marco will go and Kasich can beat Trump and Cruz and unite the party.
Sadly, Trump has probably done enough damage that you can't win swing states like New Mexico and Colorado anymore, and without them your path to the White House is pretty bleak. So it may all be for naught, but it's worth a shot and John Kasich is the only shot you got. Take it.