It's Not Race or Gender, It's a Generational Conflict

There is more than a race for president going on at this moment. There is a generational conflict happening, and the breaking point seems to be split by women who are 40 years old.

Out of eight years of President Bush have emerged two formidable candidates in Senators Clinton and Obama. Democratic voters, and independents, are struggling as they decide between the two, the subtext being the awareness that in casting their ballot, they have to make a choice about these two individuals, knowing they will be voting for either the first African American or female presidential nominee. No small choice, with no small implications.

Senator Clinton does particularly with female voters in their forties and above. Senator Obama does better with women under 40. Male voters follow a similar but less exaggerated pattern. Why is that? Generation X is the breaking point.

Voters, especially women who are over 40, have seen more. The oldest people in Generation X were born in 1967. There a few key things that separate them from the under-40 crowd. First of all, those who went to college graduated during the recession of 1989. Those who looked for jobs in their early twenties found a limited job pool, and had to stoop lower for their starter jobs than their younger generational peers. This may effect how females 40 and up feel about how complete the women's movement was. Having trouble finding your first job is not something you easily forget.

Also not easily forgotten are the gas lines during the Carter administration, being reared by boomer parents, and the images throughout the 1980s of Ronald Reagan and the ending of the Cold War. All this informs the consciousness and perception of the 40-year-old "split voters" who play a huge role in determining the outcome of the democratic presidential race.

The rest of Generation X has had an entirely different life experience, which in turn informs their world view. They have never looked for work during a recession or major economic downturn (till, possibly, now.) Instead of watching Reagan and the Cold War, they came to political awareness during the Clinton years and the boom times of the 1990s. That might make you think they'd vote for Clinton, but not so. Remember, their parents, the boomers, are already doing that. These Gen-Xers want change. They feel economically secure enough to exert their political power. They have been brought to their feet by a 46-year-old they can relate to in Senator Obama.

Mike Dupre, a senior research fellow at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics says, "in looking at the social dynamics of this election, with the notion of gender and race, there are some scientists that approach it in terms of cohort analysis because what historical era you were born and raised in, those events have an impact on your world view. Even one year year can make a difference."

Obama may be a boomer, but what he really is is an "echo-boomer," the tail end of the boomers and only six years older than the oldest Gen Xers. Senator Clinton is a boomer of an earlier time, and her followers include boomers and those born during the "forgotten generation," those born between 1940 and 1945, and the Greatest Generation, those born before 1940. Many of these women are the same people who brought Reagan to victory. They had been through the depression, or raised by parents of the depression, and lived through the war. Their outlook is informed by the sacrifices they made and learning how to get by.

There is still another generation at play in this Clinton-Obama race. Its the next new generation, which I call Generation 9/11. These are the college students I educate, and the recent graduates who got their first jobs with relative ease. Their world view is informed by the single most dramatic historical experience they were aware of: 9/11. They have lived during a time of economic strength since birth, and don't remember life without cellphones and the internet. These are the young people who have come out for Obama, who are newly activated voters. They are young and hopeful, and they are the ones to watch. They seem to want their turn to "roll the dice."

Comments

[RichLiberal]

Generation History Lesson:
Key Dates:

BabyBoomer Parents (BBPs) born (1914-1929)
1929 Depression begins
GenX Parents (GXPs) born (1930-1944)
Early BBPs struggle thru Depression
Late BBPs fight and win WWII
(BBPs are so-called "Greatest Generation")
Aug 1945 WWII ends
BabyBoomers (BBs begin life)
GXPs come of age in McCarthy/Eisenhower era (50s)
Nov 1963 JFK assassination
BBs class consciousness awoken - something is wrong
Beatles,Stones,Dylan become BBs leadership
"Animal House", NBC's 3yr "American Dreams" capture this era.
Jun 1967 Summer of Love
BBs spirit awoken, erupts thru hippie counterculture
Nov 1968 RightWing Nixon counterrevolution
Nixon starts the cycle of culture war that
Obama is supposedly so tired of.
Nov 1992 Bill Clinton breaks rightwing grip on govt.
Clinton delivers Gore's Internet and best economy ever.

More details if necessary, but those are the major points. It is clear where Hillary is from in this. Obama is rooted in GenX. No wonder neo-cons are chortling w glee at the prospect that he may finally defeat their nemesis Clinton:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html

[RichLiberal]

Generation X is the children of the people born before the baby boomers, but not old enough to have fought in WWII. i.e. people whose parents were born from around 1929-1944. i.e. those who grew up in the depression and WWII and came of age after the war was over. They were typically in college during the McCarthy era. They missed out on what is known as the "60s", which actually came to fruition in 1967 w the Summer of Love.

Generation Y is the children of the baby boomers.

If you want to know if you are GenX, just ask the year of your parents bdays.

BabyBoomers and GenX is a cultural thing, not a date of birth thing, because the dates of who is a genX'r really has to do with their parents and their parents view of the world.

If you are the child of a real baby boomer: 1945-1960, then you are GenY.

Another test is were your parents in college in 1968 or later? If yes, Gen Y, if no, Gen X.

[flatus]

These younger generations can certainly do no worse than what has been done the last two election cycles. The bar has been set on its lowest notch.

[RichLiberal]

Bill Clinton was the best Democrat since FDR (JFK short unrealized potential aside). Hillary will carry on his lead. Hillary is working class Democrat. Obama is of the elite - has no relation to working people. Obama is Gen X insensitive.

[texanna]

My, my so many labels and boxes to choose from. Which one to climb into? I do wonder, though, how Sen. Obama preaches unity and yet manages to inspire such divisiveness among his supporters. I don't much like Hillary or Obama, but the cult-like passion of Obama supporters is definitely turning me off!

[antaeus]

And for those of us who have seen and experienced more--I was county chairman for the Hart campaign when I was still a teenager (we never found the beef)--how unsettling it is to see so many children insisting on that roll of the dice, displaying what you call optimism, but what I sometimes see as naivete.

[research]

I was saying the same thing about Obama, since my candidate is Kucinich, but this video interview changed my mind.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2008/01/20/EDIAUHASH.DTL&o=0

[happytrails]

Blah, blah, blah and more blah. The REAL difference is one of taste. Those who like strawberry ice cream prefer one candidate. Those who like peach, prefer the other. But I don't know which is which.

As a white woman of almost 70 I can tell you that my husband and I and almost all of our friends are supporting Obama. Put that in your calculator and crunch it.

[lovethesinner]

You tell 'em, happytrails!

GObama!

[antaeus]

Donahue's essay is a thoughtful analysis, informed by sociology, psychology, and a knowledge of history. She's just trying to explain a phenomenon. Why the defensiveness?

[happytrails]

Well antaeus, I think I was being offensive rather than defensive but whatever, I think you were being nicer than I was. Anyway, I was trying to inject some humor into what has become the most poorly predicted event since Iraq. I am soooo tired of the pollsters and talking heads making their inane, poorly guessed-at predictions that I will stop reading this drivel. Aren't you tired of it too?

[hiprogloho]

No way GenXers were born back in the days when we had still had civilized music and movies.

GenX started with the punk rock scene of the 80s and led in the 90s and beyond to grunge.

And for the record, voting your age group is a result of ageism and not GenX or Y loyalty.

[antaeus]

Generational influence starts at birth. Our earliest years were shaped by listening to our parents' music, and Dinah Shore wasn't grunge. Yeah, we discovered the B-52s in high school, but the early '80s were practically the 1950s compared to today. And the vulgarity, homophobia and violence of '90s hip hop? Sure do see echoes of that in some of the more scatological posts here.

[rucognizant]

Finally....AP ipsos polls called me the other night, all the way from Canada. When it was revealed that I was Over 65 ( 68) the poll taker hung up on me. I wonder what they were polling for? I wonder how accurate their poll was?
How can they possible know how people over 65 think, if they don't ask?

[BitJam]

The poll takers need to get a proper cross section of people in order for the polls to be accurate. Just calling up 1,000 people at random doesn't cut it. So if the quota for your demographic was already filled, they would be wasting your time and theirs by asking you questions.

[rucognizant]

Interesting discussion here..............ALL based on the premise that Ms Donahue, is teaching, ( and has been taught;) the correct information/ approach to statistics.
It is my understanding ( through experience; can't beat THAT for knowledge,) that the Conservatives poured vast sums of money into right wing think tanks and began infiltrating the media and the institutes of higher learning, at about the time that Reagan won his first election!

Fast forward to today and we have all this division, dissention, misunderstanding misassuming......................yes where did it come from?
Up until age 50, I had NO PROBLEM communicating with almost anyone! REALLY COMMUNICATING, not just chatting! Any age group, ethnic, economic gender, group.........
BUT for the greatest Generation ( my age/demographic group) ( & NOBODY I KNOW voted for Ronald Reagan.) the world changed on 1/20/81!
Once upon a time, we were allowed to be individuals.!
Our science teacher ( a maiden lady from one of the oldest families to settle here in AMerica; farmers, used to illustrate the law of gravity by jumping from her desk in the classroom.
She also took some of us out on the Delaware Bay to see the snow geese. It was winter, it snowed it was probably dangerous..........it was for us a memorable experience!
Today she would be fired most likely!

Sunday at our caucus, 1/2 of the votes for Obama were white women over 55, except one,! The other 1/2, white men 35 - 70? 75? No one at the caucus under 35! We all arrived at our decision; having had our first choices eliminated, and CALCULATING to the best of our ability, the most desirable outcome, in Nov. I hardly call that cult like, and certainly well informed as to CLinton's voting record.
YES WE GOOGLE, ALL OF US!! Some of us were low income, some very comfortable!
Not many college degrees among us, but the I've observed that many us are more learned than college graduates!
Most missed the depression but all were children during a real, serious war!

[LincolnlandBabe]

I just turned 45 last month, and yes, I am a true Gen -X'er. Douglas Coupland, who wrote 'Generation X', classified my generation as those who were born between 1961 and 1974. I agree that a lot of younger women don't get it in regards to us women still making less money than a man for doing the same job, and that there are still plenty of glass ceilings that still need to be broken. Also, I voted for Bill Clinton twice for President, and during nearly the whole time of his administration, the economy was booming, we were admired and envied as a country, but most importantly, the jobs section in the Sunday papers were 4 to 5 sections thick, chock full of good jobs. Now, the Sunday paper jobs section is just that -- a section. Those of us who are a little older have experienced the pain of job loss, a bare-bones job market during the Reagan and Bush Sr. years, and the inability to finish college due to lack of money. While this was happening to my generation, the girls who are now young women were listening to New Kids on the Block, and wondering what Mom was going to cook for dinner.

[nypoet22]

gen X started in 74? wow, i JUST missed it.

[svyoder]

There are some factual inaccuracies here that need to be addressed.

1) The oldest Xer was born in 1961 (according to Generational experts Strauss and Howe) NOT 1967 as the author suggests, and came of political age in the mid-late 80s
2) Obama is a Gen Xer, not a Boomer
3) not all Xers were reared by Boomer parents; the oldest Xers were raised by the Silent Generation, born from 1925 to 1945, responsible for the divorce epidemic of the 70s, lived through Watergate/Iran Hostage/70s stagflation, and the eroding effects of political/institutional decay of the Reagan/Bush years.

Each of these dates and attributions are easily found through research and affect the outcome of the author's argument. I was born in 1965 and in no way belong to, or identify with, the Baby Boomer generation in life experiences and voting patterns.

[CAPTAINSKIPPY]

Looks generational to me - Hillary's "baggage" is the collection of scars earned over the years. Obama's offer of "change" comes from the relative absence of scars with fewer battles fought. Our choice is between an experienced and determined warrior and a young but energetic one. Unfortunately, the young tend to dismiss the seasoned value offered by experience, believing enthusiasm is equally valuable.

[ordinaryguy]

maybe the young don't want more of the same. they say the older you get, the less you like change. how old are you?

[HulaGuyMN]

The young have also been highly disappointed by experienced and seasoned Baby Boom politicians, who often cling to a "wait your turn" mentality in politics and the work force.

[altohone]

Indeed.

Hillary is the "experienced and determined warrior"...

... the thing is we don't want her war.

Her age didn't give her the wisdom to oppose Bush, so "seasoned" and "experienced" is worthless without judgement.

[jessica23667]

The Democratic women over 40 who support Hillary simply identify with her. They see her struggle as their struggle. They also take the attacks against her personally as if it were attacks on them. There is nothing wrong with that, people identify with candidates for various reasons. I am a woman in her early 30s who hasn't had to struggle for equality. Us younger women have reaped the benefits of the feminist movement. However, that also means I'm free to make a choice without feeling like I'm betraying my feminist "sisters".

[ecotopian]

You should do some research about generations before writing. The Boomer generation ended in 1964. The Gen X generation started in 1965, or so the demographers say. There are some who suggest it might be closer to 1963.

If those of us who were born in 1965 and 1966 aren't Boomers or Gen X, then where do we belong, according to your analysis that is?