Where Will the Chips Fall in Nevada?

The Nevada race has more clearly defined the fight-styles of Senators Clinton and Obama. The failed lawsuit filed by the teachers union to keep caucuses out of the reach of the Obama-endorsing Culinary union illustrated that Obama is capable of playing on the same tactical field as Clinton. Getting their endorsement in the first place shows that Obama has network and organization. Winning the lawsuit made them a huge voting bloc.

Another example: the democratic candidates debate in Nevada earlier this week. Obama was careful to reach out to hispanic voters, pulling them to see the shared concerns of all minority voters. Then, boom, an ad by UNITE-HERE running on Spanish radio saying, " "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people. Hillary Clinton supporters want to prevent people from voting in their workplace on Saturday. This is unforgivable. Hillary Clinton is shameless."

This yielded a defensive response from the Clinton camp: "In Iowa, Obama and his campaign went out of his way to attack labor unions for independently promoting other candidates. But in Nevada, he's looking the other way as they falsely attack his opponents."

Obama is uncomfortable and awkward discussing tactics in public, but has an operation that is very adept at tactical maneuvers. They have managed to turn the game around again, taking Clinton, who was on offense after New Hampshire, and putting her on defense prior to Nevada's caucuses.

Having re-learned to take polls with a major grain of salt (but not tequila), everyone is cautious in predicting Nevada's outcome. And to look closely at, say, the Las Vegas Review-Journal poll conducted 1/14-16, which has Clinton up by 9, half the survey was taken before the democratic candidates debate and half afterwards. On the Democratic side, the poll, by Mason-Dixon, surveyed 500 likely democratic voters. But with a margin of error for each +/- 5%, for all we really know Clinton is at 36% and Obama is at 37%. Can't wait for those late-night results.

Comments

[imperfectfilms]

"...any vote that may lead to war should be hard -- but I cast it with conviction."

-- Hillary Clinton, October 10th, 2002

"That’s what I’m opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on principle but on politics."

-- Barack Obama, October 2, 2002

[drab]

Las Vegas:Review-Journal Has Hillary up 10 she is winning with whites and Hispanics,Obama is up with blacks and Obama and Clinton are splitting union votes.

[YL]

I think any thinking person watching the debate
would conclude that Hilary was most in command of the problems of the country. Her explanation of the fallout of the subprime problems was so clear and easy for
the public to understand. Both Obama and Edwards diverted. Obama is an inspiring speaker. But it takes more than that to run the country. I would vote for him if he is
nominated (rather than any GOP), but he is not of Hilary's caliber (right now, maybe in four or eight years, when he is more exposed to the national/ international affairs). Let us not let our emotions cloud our judgment!
Is it my imagination? He seems aloof these
days! Frankly his comments about Reagan and
GOP having more ideas are not only false, but
offensive to any committed Democrats. It is
a shame for him to grovel for the "independents" votes! I agree with Hilary
and Edwards responses.

[meileen]

"Obama is uncomfortable and awkward discussing tactics in public, but has an operation that is very adept at tactical maneuvers. They have managed to turn the game around again, taking Clinton, who was on offense after New Hampshire, and putting her on defense prior to Nevada's caucuses."

Wonder where all those operatives came from?

It's telling how experience can ultimately suceed.

[Kliebert]

You would think, from reading these comments, that Hillary Clinton is a greater threat to the American people than any of the Republicans. The last debate really showed people there is little diference between these candidates on the issues (you know, the things that are supposed to ACTUALLY matter?). This negativity is doing damage to Democrats across the board. We need to recognize that the real threat here is actually the Republican world view of war, and tax cuts for the rich. Clinton voted for the legilation that Bush used to take us to War. Obama voted against it, but voted for every war funding bill since. ENOUGH! These are two honorable Democrats who would BOTH make outstanding presidents. Clinton has the edge in terms of experience, but a lot of these kids for Obama have little recollection of how good the last Clinton administration was for working Americans, as well as our good name abroad. Get your shit together, haters on both sides! If you don't it may end up being our downfall in November.

[texanna]

Hey, once again we've got you media types calling this a two-person race -- THERE IS A THIRD CANDIDATE! His name is John Edwards, and there are plenty of polls that show Nevada as a tight 3-WAY RACE!

[MetricSystem]

It's interesting to see how the media seems to be giving the Obama camp a pass on the race-baiting ad. "Hillary Clinton does not support OUR people." Substitute Obama's name for Hillary's and you can imagine the outrage.

[lbsaltzman]

I am generally a fan of the Huffington Post. But I am afraid that this post is one of several on the Huffington Post that focus on tactics over issues. As a progessive voter I am in anguish over the choice presented by both Barama and Clinton. I want to see the maximum amount of information on their positions and the minimum amount of information on pundit analysis of their strategies.

As of now I unless I can be convinced that either one of them is a genuine progessive. I will vote for Kucinich in the primary and then hold my nose and vote for Clinton or Obama in the general election. I would need to be convinced by facts that either Clinton or Obama is worth supporting in the Primaries.

[jsomerville5]

Go Obama.

No more Clintons, ever again.

[DietrichMoody]

Your quote: "Then, boom, an ad by UNITE-HERE running on Spanish radio saying, " "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people. Hillary Clinton supporters want to prevent people from voting in their workplace on Saturday. This is unforgivable. Hillary Clinton is shameless.""""""

I'm curious to know how the Spanish version went, because translations can be tricky, being taking intermediate Spanish in College and translations to English were a little EXAGGERATED.

Can you please post the actual Spanish wording.

Allegedly, Clinton does win, and very well as the "Underdog" when polls show her behind, let's hope for the good of campaigning and the future of elections, she is running way way AHEAD.

Thanks for this rather interesting post.

[SensibleAmerican]

Jennifer Donahue's constant attacks on Hillary and her utterly unabashed bias and prejudice is fast putting her in the ranks of Ingram, Coulter and Malkin

[Lazslo]

Now this seems like a fair assessment. Zogby has Clinton up by three, I think, with a +-4% margin of error. Just like NH, this race is very tight. All Obama supporters need to get out and caucus. Caucus like the wind, I tell you!