I'm beginning to think it possible that Karl Rove either is not going to be charged in the Valerie Plame Leak investigation, or if he is charged, it will be with a false statement rather than perjury offense. If it's the second scenario, Rove could make a plea deal with Fitzgerald under which he agrees to plead guilty if Fitzgerald agrees to request a sentencing reduction to probation, because of his cooperation against others.
Here's the reasoning:
1. Fitzgerald may decide to give Rove a complete pass if he has cooperated to significant extent, turning on Libby and others in Cheney's office, the White House Iraq Group and perhaps the State or Defense Departments. Under this scenario, Fitzgerald simply would not submit a proposed charge for Rove to the grand jury so there would be no vote on him at all.
A clue for this scenario lies in Murray Waas' article on Rove's fourth grand jury appearance, the sources for which appear to be Rove's legal team:
"He will also be questioned regarding contacts with other senior administration officials, such as then-deputy National Security advisor Stephen J. Hadley and I. Lewis Libby, the chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney in the critical week before the publication of columnist Robert Novak's column on July 14, 2003, which outed Plame as a covert CIA operative."
It may be that by asking or agreeing to return to the grand jury a fourth time, Rove not only sought to clear himself but offered to incriminate others.
2. Rove may have successfully cleared himself of a perjury charge regarding his conversation with Matt Cooper during his fourth grand jury appearance. The applicable perjury statute allows him to do this:
(d) Where, in the same continuous court or grand jury proceeding in which a declaration is made, the person making the declaration admits such declaration to be false, such admission shall bar prosecution under this section if, at the time the admission is made, the declaration has not substantially affected the proceeding, or it has not become manifest that such falsity has been or will be exposed.
3. Fitzgerald may have accepted that Rove was not a confirming source for Novak. By telling Novak on July 8 he had "heard the same thing" about Wilson's wife, he wasn't saying it was true, only that he heard it. Bloomberg News reported:
In addition, on July 8, 2003, the day after the memo was sent, Novak discussed Wilson and his wife with Rove, who had remained in Washington, according to the New York Times. The Times quoted an attorney familiar with Fitzgerald's probe as saying that when Novak mentioned Wilson's wife worked for the CIA, Rove said, ``Yeah, I've heard that too.''
4. According to Rove's lawyer, Rove did not see the June 9, 2003 classified State Department memo until Fitzgerald showed it to him during a grand jury appearance. If that's true, then Rove may be off the hook for any charges related to disclosing information contained within it.
As background, here is a selection of news articles outlining when various reporters spoke to Rove and Libby:
- July 8 - Libby Meets with Miller
- July 8 - Novak talks to Rove.
- July 8 - Novak speaks to unnamed person in the street about Wilson's wife.
- July 9 - Novak Calls Wilson. Or, on July 8, Wilson calls Novak, misses him, they connect on July 10.
- July 11 - Rove talks to Matt Cooper about Wilson's wife.
- July 11 - Rove e-mails Hadley about talking to Matt Cooper.
- July 12 - Pincus source says Wilson's trip was a boondoggle set up by his wife, a CIA analyst
- July 12 - Libby talks to Matt Cooper
5. On to Plan B. If Rove is charged, it might be only for making a false statement to investigators in the earliest days of the investigation when he said he didn't speak to reporters about Joseph Wilson's wife until after Novak's article was published. Murray Waas reported:
Rove also adamantly insisted to the FBI that he was not the administration official who leaked the information that Plame was a covert CIA operative to conservative columnist Robert Novak last July. Rather, Rove insisted, he had only circulated information about Plame after it had appeared in Novak's column. He also told the FBI, the same sources said, that circulating the information was a legitimate means to counter what he claimed was politically motivated criticism of the Bush administration by Plame's husband, former Ambassador Joseph Wilson.
If this is all the grand jury charges him with, and if, as I have speculated frequently in the past few weeks, he has cooperated against others, he could plead guilty under a plea agreement in which Fitzgerald moves for a sentence reduction under 5K1.1 of the Sentencing Guidelines, possibly down to probation.
Rove would need that motion.
The sentencing guidelines for making a false statement are here. While the guideline for the offense isn't onerous, as Velvet Revolution pointed out, the adjustments to the guidelines are another matter. For example, under 3A1.2(b), he could go up six levels because the victim was a government official.
"if the victim was a government employee or member of the immediate family of a government employee and the offense of conviction was motivated by such status…."
He could go up two levels for abuse of public trust:
If the defendant abused a position of public or private trust, or used a special skill, in a manner that significantly facilitated the commission or concealment of the offense, increase by 2 levels.
He could be increased another two levels for obstruction of justice.
If (A) the defendant willfully obstructed or impeded, or attempted to obstruct or impede, the administration of justice during the course of the investigation, prosecution, or sentencing of the instant offense of conviction, and (B) the obstructive conduct related to (i) the defendant’s offense of conviction and any relevant conduct; or (ii) a closely related offense, increase the offense level by 2 levels.
Patrick Fitzgerald, and only Patrick Fitzgerald, not the grand jury or the Court on its own motion, has the power to make that 5K1.1 motion, and ask that Rove not receive a jail sentence.
Does last night's revelation that Fitzgerald had the FBI canvassing the Wilsons' neighbors Monday change this scenario? Not if the reason was to use Rove's cooperation to nail those in Cheney's office, the White House Iraq Group, State Department or a Pentagon unit for improperly leaking classified information or outing an undercover agent.
And that's how Karl Rove could walk.
Will it happen? Right now, only Fitzgerald knows for sure. As a devout critic of the Bush Administration, I bring it up because I don't like rats. If Karl Rove isn't indicted, or gets a sweetheart deal, I can't conceive of any reason why other than he sang his heart out.