Livni and Barak's Gaza Calculus

Pop quiz - who would you vote for prime minister in Israel's February 10th election? Tzipi Livni, Ehud Barak, or Benyamin Netanyahu?

While you think of your answer, here's a very quick resume of each:

Tzipi Livni is the current Minister of Foreign Affairs and leader of the moderate Kadima Party, which supports a two-state solution and territorial concessions to Palestinians.

Ehud Barak is the current Minister of Defense and leader of the now smaller, center-left Labor Party, Israel's version of European-styled social democracy. You may remember him as Israel's former prime minister who came extremely close to signing the Bill Clinton-moderated peace deal with Yasser Arafat in 2000.

And then there's Benyamin Netanyahu, a hawkish former prime minister and current leader of the center-right Likud Party. Likud's platform "flatly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state" in the West Bank while supporting continued Jewish settlements.

If you believe that the Palestinians deserve a state of their own to live side-by-side in peace with Israel, then you'd probably vote for Tzipi Livni or Ehud Barack. I would--Netanyahu is wrong for peace.

After current (caretaker) Prime Minister Ehud Olmert resigned in August over a graft scandal, Tzipi Livni, as leader of the largest party, attempted to form a coalition with Barak's Labor Party. The effort failed because smaller fringe parties withheld support unless Livni met their excessive demands, thus preventing Kadima/Labor from gaining an outright majority. So she stuck to her values and called an early election rather than bend to fringe parties' will.

Kadima had been tainted by the less-than-perfect 2006 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon in addition to Olmert's corruption charges. In October, polls projected Kadima party to barely hold its 30 seats in the 120-seat Knesset (Israel's parliament); Netanyahu's Likud stood to skyrocket to 28, up from 12. Barak's Labor was a distant third at 11 seats, down from 19.

It got worse: By November, one poll projected an 8+ seat Likud win over Kadima/Labor. Had the election been that month, Israel's prime minister would be the ultra-hawkish Netanyahu. And you could throw out the two-state solution.

Then came Israel's offensive against Hamas in Gaza. The operation hasn't changed the dynamic between the two biggest parties--Likud and Kadima are still projected to win around 30 and 28 seats, respectively.

But pay attention to Labor as the linchpin. The invasion has done wonders for Defense Minister Barak's party, which has reaped the rewards for the (so far) successful military incursion. Look no farther than the party's headquarters, where volunteers are arriving in droves this week.

Even the opposition can't deny their success, "[Ehud] Barak has proven himself in this operation as someone who knows how to do the work," said Shlomo Sarur, who has been a member of rival Likud's central committee for 25 years. "On security, he's good, and you can't take that away from him."

Current polling bears out this rise in popularity, giving Labor 15 or 16 seats (up from October's 11). As long as the invasion continues as a low-casualty success, that number could grow.

Much could change over the next month, and indeed it might. Right now, Barak and Livni are using their incumbent status to out-hawking Netanyahu, at least in the short term. If on February 10th Kadima/Labor captures 44 seats to Likud's 30, Tzipi Livni would gain a significant advantage over Netanyahu in recruiting junior partners to join their coalition. The two-state solution would have a much better hope.

I'll bet you can guess where I'm going with this. Should Kadima/Labor win February's election, it will in large part be because of the invasion's success. If hundreds of innocent deaths helps secure a real security mandate for the moderate-to-dovish Kadima/Labor and a better chance for lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace, that's political calculus Livni and Barak were willing to take.

Cross-posted to allourmight.com

Comments

[voyager0]

It is difficult to see a dime's difference between all three candidates at this point. Left? Liberal? Give me a break. As far as I can see they are all blood thirsty. In the end it will be up to the progressive peoples in the U.S. to demand that no more of our tax dollars go to support these wars. Our political parties, both Democrats and Republicans are too beholden to AIPAC and the military-industrial complex to take a clear stand against this aggression. Israel's actions are making us all less safe and fueling extremism.

[Dameocrat]

Since Barak and Livni are the ones prosecuting the war, it doesn't seem you get something better with either two alternatives to Likud. The truth is Labor and Kadima generally have to ally themselves with minority right wing parties like Shahs in order to form a government, and this cancels out what ever philosophy they claim to hold so much so that they are no different in practice from Likud.

[Dameocrat]

in some ways it is better to get Netenyahu because he doesn't create moderate or liberal illusions in our politicians.

[chaos4700]

I think it's pretty sick that Livni and Barak are supposed to be what passes for moderate or left wing in Israel. If this is Israel at its most peaceful? I think it's time the rest of us started setting the terms for the hostilities to end, Israel be damned. They've proven time and time again that they will start a war with their neighbors on a whim. Growing up in the US, I was taught that Israel was supposed to be an island of civilization among hostile neighbors bent toward it's destruction; it's pretty obvious now what a lie that was.

[aemathisphd]

Interesting article. I would argue that Labor stopped being the social democrat party a long time ago. Ehud Barak was "New Labor" just as Blair was for the U.K. and Clinton was a "New Democrat" here. The real left in Israel falls under the banner of Meretz, one leader of which, Yossi Beilin, had been the chief negotiator with the Palestinians under Oslo. He was a Labor party member until Oslo fell apart.

Barak will not get enough mandates to form a government. Also, should Netanyahu get the most mandates and be appointed to form a government, Barak may actually join that government. He's joined Likud governments in the past, notably when led by Ariel Sharon.

The other problem is that even a Kadima/Labor can only count on another eight mandates (at most) from the left (Meretz, the Green Party, and the Pensioner Party). So Livni will still come nine seats short of a majority government, should she even get the opportunity to form a government. She can't count on Shas (and nobody should accept them in a government) and support from the Ashkenazi religious parties will be contingent on a bunch of promises that she may not be able to keep. The only bloc that can put Livni over the 61-seat hump are the Arab parties, and the current operation may have prevented them from joining any coalition for some time.

[jazzman]

I have been following this logic since the outset of the incursion and as much as I hate to see what is happening in Gaza, I would like to see the result be a more progressive faction in charge of Israel because if Netanyahu gets elected it will represent a real lost opportunity to make real progress for peace now that Barack Obama is in office and engaged diplomacy will be back in fashion.

We in the U.S. did our part in electing Obama now the Israelis must do their part in putting a rational and reasonable leader in place as well.

[SiberianRat]

Absolutely! And if they do stick the world with Netanyahu, then we MUST demand that the US withdraw support and aid from Israel until he agrees to a 2-state solution.