Presidential campaigns are less about substance than a test of how candidates will react to new and unexpected situations. I think that's a good thing because it is nearly impossible to predict the problems that will confront a new president, but likely that they'll be issues that weren't discussed in debates.
George Bush didn't spend a lot of time talking about terrorism during the 2000 campaign, but the events of 9/11 made it a priority. Similarly the candidates during the 2008 contest weren't pushed for detailed responses on how they'd respond to the greater international financial crisis since the Great Depression.
I realize that inevitably leaves a lot of true believers unhappy when their candidate fails to deliver on his promises. Social conservatives have so regularly had the rug pulled out from under them after their candidate was elected that they must feel like Charlie Brown believing that Lucy will actually hold the football until he kicks it. In the same way, liberals feel Obama has strayed.
That's their problem.
I think the reactive test imposed by the campaign is useful irrespective of the particular issue involved. When it comes to behavior, the past is indeed prologue. The president I recall who made the most drastic changes was Nixon (off the gold standard, wage and price controls, universal health insurance) and that's largely because he was so (distressingly to many) pragmatic. Ideologically, was there anything there?
All of which leads to my question about Newt Gingrich, which is this: Is he a quitter? When the going gets tough, will he head for the nearest exit? Consider how Bill Clinton held onto his presidency despite impeachment efforts and criticism from his own party and compare that with how Newt, newly-re-elected to Congress in 1996, suddenly resigned his seat, forcing the government of Georgia to fund a special election, when it became clear that he'd no longer be Speaker of the House. I challenge Congressional historians to come up with another Speaker who simply upped and quit when told he couldn't retain the gavel.
This seems to be part of a larger pattern for a candidate who has an abnormally short attention span even by political standards. He walked away from two marriages when they didn't go his way. If elected, what are the odds that he'll still be President and still be married to the same woman by the end of his term? What would the oddsmakers say?
Here's a scenario for you. Newt gets elected and Republicans control both houses of Congress and have great success in imposing their radical program. Two years later, they lose control of the House and have a margin in the Senate that can be neutralized by a filibuster. What would Newt do?
Here's another. The economic situation continues to deteriorate and America's lenders, the Chinese perhaps, demand changes in the American economy as the price of continued assistance -- a situation not unlike what we've witnessed recently in Southern Europe. How would Newt respond to that one?
I raise this question for my Republican friends. As a Democrat I don't have much enthusiasm for a Gingrich presidency. But it seems increasingly possible that he could get elected. If that happens, as a regular-order guy, I think it's generally a good idea for elected officials to stay the course and do the job. In an unstable world, the added distraction of an internet site presenting daily odds on whether President Gingrich was considering other endeavors would not be a positive development.
In short, we know that if nominated he'll run. The question now is whether if elected, he'll serve -- and, if so, for how long?
Follow Jim Jaffe on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jimjaf
Rev. Chuck Currie: Would You Trust Newt Gingrich With Your Children?
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
As I remember it, the Pubs finally had enough of Newt, forced him out of the leadership and he quit congress when he was forced to be a mere rank and file Congressman from Georgia after people were tired of the investigation of Clinton and he managed to lose the House
.
From Jim Jaffe:
A check of the record indicates that he was disciplined subsequent to the ethics investigation early in 1997, but remained speaker. He was then re-elected to congress the following year despite a loss of GOP seats generally and was challenged for the speakership by Bob Livingston, who apparently had the votes to win. Gingrich then said he wouldn't contest the leadership change and would resign from congress, which is subsequently did. Livingston had other problems and also quickly exited congress. that's when Hastert became speaker.
For a terrific profile of Newt, including an interview with one of the ex-wives he cheated on ( this one with a far younger staffer), go to:
http://www.esquire.com/features/newt-gingrich-0910
For crying out loud, why do people so consistently get details wrong about Newt Gingrich? He's the most known quantity in the GOP circus by a wide margin.
He is completely un-electable.
There is no way a majority of Americans want such a hateful man to represent the country.
Too bad your half of the country obviously doesn't care about the country and has spent three years trying to destroy it, rather than help fix the problems your people caused.
He has no concern for the ecological impact the decisions being made by big oil, big coal and industrial polluters are having on the planet. Newt has no interest in investing in innovation, education and experimentation.
He'll try to turn the USA into the Norman Rockwell utopia of the 1940's.
01/30/2011 – Lobbied for ethanol subsidies.
01/30/2011 – Suggested that flex-fuel vehicles be mandated for Americans.
02/13/2011 – Criticized Obama for sending less U.S. taxdollars to Egypt.
02/15/2011 – Wrote book saying he believes man-made climate-change and advocated creating “a new endowment for conservation and the environment.”
03/09/2011 – Blames his infidelity to multiple wives on his passion for the country.
03/15/2011 – Stated that NAFTA worked because it created jobs in Mexico.
03/19/2011 – Shows no regrets about supporting Medicare drug coverage. (Now $7.2T unfunded liability)
03/23/2011 – Completely flip-flopped on Libyan intervention in 16 days.
03/25/2011 – Plans to sign as many as 200 executive orders on his first day as president.
04/25/2011 – Became paid lobbyist for Federal ethanol subsidies.
05/12/2011 – More supportive of individual health-care mandates than Mitt Romney.
06/09/2011 – Campaign staff resigned en masse.
07/15/2011 – Poorly managed campaign is over $1 Million in debt.
08/01/2011 – Hired a company to create fake Twitter accounts to make fake followers.
10/07/2011 – Stated he’d ignore the Supreme Court and bypass the constitution and congress.
10/22/1991 – Voted for an amendment that would create a National Police Corps.
03/-/1993 – Voted for sending $1.6 Billion in foreign aid to Russia.
11/19/1993 – Voted for the NAFTA Implementation Act.
11/27/1994 – Supported the GATT Treaty giving sovereignty to the U.N.
08/27/1995 – Suggested that drug smuggling should carry a death sentence.
04/25/1996 – Voted for the single largest increase on Federal education spending ($3.5 Billion)
04/10/1995 – Supported Federal taxdollars being spent on abortions.
06/01/1996 – Helped a Democrat switch parties in an attempt to defeat constitutionalist Ron Paul in 1996 election.
09/25/1996 – Introduced H.R. 4170, demanded life-sentence or execution for someone bringing 2 ounces of marijuana across the border.
01/22/1997 – Congress gave him a record-setting $300,000 fine for ethical wrongdoing.
11/29/2006 – Stated that free speech should be curtailed in order to fight terrorism. Called for a “serious debate about the 1st Amendment.”
02/15/2007 – Supported Bush’s proposal for mandatory carbon caps.
09/28/2008 – Stated if he were in office, he would have reluctantly voted for the $700B TARP bailout.
10/01/2008 – Stated in an article that TARP was a “workout, not a bailout.”
12/08/2008 – Paid $300,000 by Freddie Mac to halt Congress from bringing necessary reform.
03/31/2009 – States we should have Singapore-style drug tests for Americans.
07/30/2010 – States that Iraq was just step one in defeating the “Axis of Evil”.
08/03/2010 – Advocates attacks on Iran & North Korea.
11/15/2010 – Defended Romneycare
12/05/2010 – Stated that a website owner should be considered an enemy combatant, hunted down and executed, for publishing leaked government memos.
I'd like you to run the DNC election programs.