Leaving it Up to Texas? Again? Seriously?

The state that gave the planet George W. Bush is poised to play a historic role in the selection of the Democratic presidential candidate. Oh irony of ironies. We always manage to stumble into destiny's crossroads and force detours. March 4th, a date that wasn't supposed to mean much in the Democratic primary process, may give Texas further undue influence over this nation's democracy.

Before I indulge in further analytical posturing, I need to point out that I was not born here and therefore I am not a true Texan. You have to have entered the world over this sacred soil to be considered a Texan. I was not, but I have been writing and reporting on politics in Texas since 1975 and I was here when Jimmy Carter tried out his non-Tex-Mex Spanish in the Rio Grande Valley and I was here when the Bushes wrongly decided they were fit to lead. Hell, I even bought a cowboy hat to wear in a jacket cover photo for Bush's Brain, a complete marketing ploy to sell cowboy politics.

Even though I am not a Texan, except by choice, I know something about how things both work and fail under the Lone Star skies. And they often fail. We are historically 49th in categories like Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Medicaid, and any kind of social service. An estimated 5 million people, almost a quarter of the population, are without health insurance. Our unofficial state motto is "Thank God for Mississippi."

So fate gives us political power again in the Democratic primary? Perfectly understandable, eh? Let me make one of my consistently inaccurate predictions on the outcome.

First, Senator Clinton can be expected to overwhelmingly win the Mexican-American vote. The Clintons have been coming to Texas almost from the outset of their political rise and have frequently visited the border regions where the population is well over 90 percent Hispanic. In fact, Mrs. Clinton is tentatively scheduled to speak Wednesday night at Pan American University in Hidalgo County in the Rio Grande Valley. McAllen businessman Alonzo Cantu has raised large amounts of money for her and her husband through the years. Senator Obama has a great challenge to make meaningful inroads into that support.

But it isn't that simple.

There is a historical antipathy between African-American and Mexican American voters in Texas. And it will not be easily overcome. A friend, who is an African-American legislator from Houston, explained it to me by suggesting that "blacks and browns have spent too damned many years fighting each other over the crumbs left by the white folks in this state."

Gross oversimplifications often contain a germ of truth.

For most of its existence, the Texas legislature has been dominated by rural influences. White men were elected and controlled the powerful committees. Even in the cow counties and along the border where the Hispanic population often outnumbered the Anglo, white candidates won by intimidation and other less than democratic tactics. When the state began its transition from being a part of the South to becoming a centerpiece of the Sunbelt, growth boomed in the urban areas and they took control of the legislative and political processes. African-Americans in Dallas and Houston appeared to Mexican-Americans, who were concentrated more in South Texas, to have a disproportionate political influence. Many Hispanic voters felt disconnected from the processes and once more marginalized.

In spite of the heroic efforts of the Southwest Voter Registration Project to increase the numbers of Mexican-Americans in the polling places on Election Day, they have tended to not turn out in anticipated numbers. Even when a Laredo businessman with a Hispanic surname became the first to run for governor, vote totals for Mexican-Americans remained at historically standard levels. Expect Mrs. Clinton to win their vote by a big margin but whether she inspires Mexican-American numbers to go beyond normal primary turnout levels is likely to determine whether she will win.

Senator Obama's candidacy, however, will dramatically increase the turnout of African-American voters in Texas, mostly in the cities and East Texas. His success is likely to hinge on the large black population in the piney woods of East Texas. Obama will handily carry the vote of urban black voters in Dallas and Houston and their turnout levels will be well beyond the historical norms. If he can do the same thing in East Texas, he has a chance of overwhelming Mrs. Clinton's overwhelming Hispanic support. (Conservative white male Democrats are not good prospects to vote for Mrs. Clinton in Texas and those who go to the polls will probably pick Obama.)

East Texas, a region that spans a distance from Dallas to Houston and up through Tyler and over to Beaumont-Port Arthur, has been a profound political influence in Texas and has decided many statewide elections. The electorate there has been overwhelmingly conservative and any East Texas Democrat caught north of the Red River was easily mistaken for a conservative Republican. In fact, during the 80s Ronald Reagan identified them precisely that way and courted their vote by calling them "Reagan Democrats." Eventually, they became Republicans and stopped identifying themselves with the Democratic Party of Texas. The African-American vote in East Texas, however, stayed with the Democrats and, sufficiently inspired, can help Obama to victory in Texas.

The open primary in Texas will also complicate the dynamics of the vote. John McCain will either be the presumptive or declared nominee on the date of the Texas primary and Republicans may not be that interested in casting meaningless votes. Those that think Hillary would be easy to beat in the general election might go help her March 4th by casting ballots in the Democratic Texas primary, though it is hard to believe these numbers will be significant enough to alter the outcome of final totals.

The truth is, however, this is still Texas and we elected George W. Bush governor, twice, and we voted by a 2-1 margin to make sure gay people don't get married and our current governor has just published a book that is largely a polemic about the threat gays pose to the Boy Scouts of America. We are still trying to figure out how to create a constitutional funding method for our schools even though the lawsuit that prompted the debate was won by the poor schools in 1968. Our property taxes are among the highest in the country because the legislature will never tax income on corporations or individuals and more and more people are unable to get into homes because of tax burdens...

Aw hell...you get the picture.

There are some forward-thinking, progressive people in Texas...lots of them, and they are excited about this election and both candidates but the progressive thinkers are not in control. The Democratic Party is presently trying to reconcile the interests of progressives and conservatives within its ranks. While there is optimism here about a viable Democratic presidential candidate, neither Clinton nor Obama is a choice many conservative Democrats want to make.

And the winner may be the candidate that conservative Democrats dislike the least.

Follow James Moore on Twitter: www.twitter.com/moorethink

Comments

[dogbert321]

Barbara Bush should of had an abortion.

[flatus]

Is it true that the Texas license plate motto is "Gateway to Arkansas"?

[foreffectivegovernment]

Hillary Clinton has a very good chance of taking all the marbles here in Texas. There are many in Texas who are old enough to remember things about the 1990's besides the BJ. and we don't let our teenage kids tell us who to vote for.

I'll admit, some of my neighbors believed George W. Bush would be "Compassionate" and that he would actually want to take care of children even after they left the womb, but they were wrong. I saw a bumper sticker the other day that said, "Somebody give George a BJ so we can impeach him!"

I don't think these people will vote for McCain and I know they will not get Obama-mania. See below.

[foreffectivegovernment]

I watched a very interesting interview on Real Time with Bill Mahr on HBO on 2-15-2008.

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) Missouri, elected for the first time to the United States Senate in November 2006, explained why she was supporting Senator Barack Obama to be President of the United States. She is the only one of the 16 female Senators who now is.

These are her words. “It was a little nudging from my 18 year old Daughter.” “It was Maddie in my face.” “She, (Maddie), said, ‘How can you look yourself in the mirror, you’re a slug, you’re playing it politically safe, I believe in this guy, I’ll never speak to you again if you don’t stand up and have some courage.’ “
“It was pretty intense, she was right, it was like a cold bucket of water on my head, she was absolutely right.”

[bartnrod]

Who knows what Texas will do? It's simply all conjecture. Having lived their until 13 months ago I could see a political system that was so bogged down and backward. Now in Colorado, and what a breath of fresh air that has been--literally.

[Barbarossa03]

For the record, Bush is a wannabe Texan just like you, get it right. He is a blue blood born in Connecticut. Bush Sr came to Texas in search of oil wealth.
How Bush Jr was able to start his political career here is the same way that he was able to dodge serving in the Vietnam War, through the political connections of his father. You cannot blame Texas for it's dumbasses for voting Bush in as governor because look at the dumbasses that voted him in as President across the nation.
This is a stigma that Texas will have to bear for all eternity.

[pizzmoe]

I thought Texas seceded from the Union.

[envilliven]

IF I THOUGHT IT WOULD DO ANY GOOD, I WOULD SUGGEST GIVING TEXAS BACK TO ITS ORIGINAL OWNERS. CAN'T THOSE FOLKS DOWN THERE MOTIVATE THEMSELVES ENOUGH TO ENTER THE 21ST CENTURY.

[Barbarossa03]

The current Republican hold has caused an acute case of head up the ass syndrome across the state, however, this is not about red and blue. What high speed 21st century state are you from?

[Mindleftnumb]

I heard Texas has drive through liquor stores. That's awesome.

But anyways, Obama is currently (pre potomac resutls)up by 66 pledged delegates. Hillary is riding on texas/ohio. Those two states combined have 389 delegates. Even if she wins those states by the margin she won in New York (17%), which is unlikely, she would only gain 66 delegates! And she's bound to be down by more before then.

Why is she pulling a Guliani?!

[Dee321]

Texas is a great state. You are right about dubya and past TX misdoings, but hopefully we are past all that!

American Hispanic voters are coming out in large numbers this election. We are motivated and we want our voice heard. We want to make a difference!

While I lean toward Hillary, if Obama is selected as the Dem candidate, I will support and vote for him.

I believe Hillary will win on March 4. Not only will Hispanic Americans come out in large numbers to vote for her, she will receive strong support from all other ethnicities, including conservative White males. I am a very active blogger and have seen strong support for Hillary from all sides in Texas.

[alanmartin]

Wow....what an impressive amount of drivel written to perpetuate the idea of stupid, redneck, oil-rich Texans. I wonder how many people wrote thier posts on DELL Computers (based in Austin) or will link up with some satellite-based news service, launched from NASA mission headquarters (Houston)...I could go on and on and on.
Lets keep all these silly stereotypes alive and well, shall we? So then Hillary cant be qualified for president (FEMALE) not can Obama (BLACK) since George did such a crappy job (STUPID TEXAN).
What is so pathetic is the immense amount of time and effort put into such a shallow discussion. I could point out an easy dozen inaccurate statements of posters below, yet it just goes on and on. The folks on the left side of the aisle will surely lose this election if this is any indication, by pointing to the silliness and the rhetorical name-calling instead of focusing on the issues.

God Bless America, Republican or Democrat

Alan Martin

[GuiltyUndertaker]

What is so pathetic is the failure to realize that Texas is not the state that gave us George W Bush. Those states would be Connecticut (born there), Massachusetts (semi-educated there) and Maine (seat of the family empire).

[ched]

Let's see, isn't Texas also home to Exxon, Halliburton, and Enron?

What appears to elude your understanding, Mr. Martin, is the point of the article, which is that it is supremely ironic and rather galling that the very state which foisted GW, Enron, Halliburton, et.al. upon us in the first place will also have a disproportionate say in which democrat replaces Mr. Bush. Given the extremely republikan mentality of the lone star state (and we know you like it that way), we would rather leave that decision in someone else's hands.

[monique]

Hopefully, my fellow Texans will realize, that as we enter into one of the most critical periods in American history, we will need a leader with experience, that we need Hillary.

[wrabbitt]

Texas is a wonderful state, with the most friendly people,but, i live in New York ,no don't blame Hillary on us shes from Arkansas. The only thing i dislike about Texas is the Bush factor. Obama is a step in a different direction, Bush being an oil man and an American. should have the sense to not get into a war for oil and or money!I believe he had to make a mess for the next president to clean up, well, he did that well. Hillary/Bill is just a continuation of the bush trilogy only the names were changed to protect the guilty.

[GuiltyUndertaker]

Bush is from New England. Hillary Clinton is from Illinois.

[sws3030]

No-George Bush is not from Texas. But the shithead people of Texas are the ones that helped launch him into national politics. If it were up to me, Texans would be denied the right to vote for 100 years.

[fishhead]

I'm pretty new to Texas having moved here in 2005 from Alaska, but I have found it to be one of the friendliest places I have ever lived. I am unabashedly liberal, do not own a cowboy hat or big belt buckle, and drive a kia, but I have yet to encounter any Texan that has been insulting about it. I look forward to the primary and have contributed to the candidate of my choice and hope they win. Anyway, Texas is now my home and I am thankful for all the good people I have met here and will meet here in the future.
Dan Ashe

[bookerone]

Don't forget Texas gave us that truly great political writer Molly Ivins (may she rest in Peace or better may she not...it would be great if she would come back and haunt hacks like Miller!

[PigLipstick]

Miss Molly made an oh so true statement shortly before her death; "there's no reason for progressives to vote in Texas". The Republican winner take all system guarantees that most Democratic votes are headed for the trash can. So true, probably why I haven't voted since the 1968 presidential election, the first one were I was old enough to vote. The only thing that voting got me was a jury summons.

Texas was a Democratic state for most of my youth though their were strong right wing areas, mainly where there was clusters of the oil rich and Southern Baptists. Usually these areas were run by regressive Boss Hogs that ruled with an iron hand. They ran the state for years until the 1970s when voting priorities were changed and elections were based on population rather than land area. People living in big cities finally had the power to over ride the Boss Hog Theocracies in the small towns. Liberal alcohol consumption regulations and the elimination of arcaine laws, like the infamous Blue Law, came soon after. Texas finally joined the 20th century with a few exceptions like Dallas where the Right-Wing maintains a strangle hold until this day. They have shot every Progressive President that has ever visited there.

The flight to the South from the North in the 70s and 80s screwed everything up. That's why we had bumper stickers that said" Welcome To Texas, Now Go the F*** Back Home !".

[ChimpmasterDJ]

And let's not forget that Molly Ivins, God Bless Her, had some very choice words for Hillary Clinton! She saw right through Hillary and warned us.

[KarenZipdrive]

Carpetbagging George Bush was born in CT and educated in New England, so please let's get that straight.
He adopted Texas because his conniving parents wanted to come here to loot and plunder the oil industry. Junior, incapable of original thought, sought to do the same. When that failed, daddy got him a baseball team, where he traded Sammy Sosa. Then he tried politics, where the Texas GOP were looking for a dimwit puppet they could manipulate. You know the rest.

Texas is also the home of Ann Richards, Mollie Ivins, Sarrah Weddington and a host of strong Democrats who know how to slice and dice politics like Kosher butchers in NYC.

With our natural resources, we can grow our own food, drill and refine our own oil and even make our own Toyota Tundra trucks. We are one of the few states that could secede and do just fine.

So Hell yes Texas should get a big slice of the primary pie. As a liberal lesbian Texan, I can assure you there's a lot more to Texas than fat old white men in cowboy costumes.

[GuiltyUndertaker]

Texas is also home to Jim Hightower and Kinky Friedman and Willie Nelson...or don't you want to include liberal men in your list of Texans to admire?

The Bushes claimed to be Texans so George H.W. Bush (aka Daddy Warbucks) could shed his wimp image and project himself as a rough, tough Texas wrangler. Didn't work with me.

[splashy]

Texas is also home to the largest amount of wind generators also now, even surpassing California. Those west Texas ranchers realized how much those big 'ol blades turning could make them, and went for it. It's revitalizing their whole area.

Hmm, could be they would go for a more progressive vote there just because of that.

[JulieSA]

The wind turbines are great in the right areas, but they're unpopular in the areas around the huge bat caves in central Texas, so the wind companies are pulling out of there. They're also controversial in the huge central flyway for migratory birds along the coast. There are some big fights going on started by those who want to protect wildlife.