Leaving it Up to Texas? Again? Seriously?

The state that gave the planet George W. Bush is poised to play a historic role in the selection of the Democratic presidential candidate. Oh irony of ironies. We always manage to stumble into destiny's crossroads and force detours. March 4th, a date that wasn't supposed to mean much in the Democratic primary process, may give Texas further undue influence over this nation's democracy.

Before I indulge in further analytical posturing, I need to point out that I was not born here and therefore I am not a true Texan. You have to have entered the world over this sacred soil to be considered a Texan. I was not, but I have been writing and reporting on politics in Texas since 1975 and I was here when Jimmy Carter tried out his non-Tex-Mex Spanish in the Rio Grande Valley and I was here when the Bushes wrongly decided they were fit to lead. Hell, I even bought a cowboy hat to wear in a jacket cover photo for Bush's Brain, a complete marketing ploy to sell cowboy politics.

Even though I am not a Texan, except by choice, I know something about how things both work and fail under the Lone Star skies. And they often fail. We are historically 49th in categories like Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Medicaid, and any kind of social service. An estimated 5 million people, almost a quarter of the population, are without health insurance. Our unofficial state motto is "Thank God for Mississippi."

So fate gives us political power again in the Democratic primary? Perfectly understandable, eh? Let me make one of my consistently inaccurate predictions on the outcome.

First, Senator Clinton can be expected to overwhelmingly win the Mexican-American vote. The Clintons have been coming to Texas almost from the outset of their political rise and have frequently visited the border regions where the population is well over 90 percent Hispanic. In fact, Mrs. Clinton is tentatively scheduled to speak Wednesday night at Pan American University in Hidalgo County in the Rio Grande Valley. McAllen businessman Alonzo Cantu has raised large amounts of money for her and her husband through the years. Senator Obama has a great challenge to make meaningful inroads into that support.

But it isn't that simple.

There is a historical antipathy between African-American and Mexican American voters in Texas. And it will not be easily overcome. A friend, who is an African-American legislator from Houston, explained it to me by suggesting that "blacks and browns have spent too damned many years fighting each other over the crumbs left by the white folks in this state."

Gross oversimplifications often contain a germ of truth.

For most of its existence, the Texas legislature has been dominated by rural influences. White men were elected and controlled the powerful committees. Even in the cow counties and along the border where the Hispanic population often outnumbered the Anglo, white candidates won by intimidation and other less than democratic tactics. When the state began its transition from being a part of the South to becoming a centerpiece of the Sunbelt, growth boomed in the urban areas and they took control of the legislative and political processes. African-Americans in Dallas and Houston appeared to Mexican-Americans, who were concentrated more in South Texas, to have a disproportionate political influence. Many Hispanic voters felt disconnected from the processes and once more marginalized.

In spite of the heroic efforts of the Southwest Voter Registration Project to increase the numbers of Mexican-Americans in the polling places on Election Day, they have tended to not turn out in anticipated numbers. Even when a Laredo businessman with a Hispanic surname became the first to run for governor, vote totals for Mexican-Americans remained at historically standard levels. Expect Mrs. Clinton to win their vote by a big margin but whether she inspires Mexican-American numbers to go beyond normal primary turnout levels is likely to determine whether she will win.

Senator Obama's candidacy, however, will dramatically increase the turnout of African-American voters in Texas, mostly in the cities and East Texas. His success is likely to hinge on the large black population in the piney woods of East Texas. Obama will handily carry the vote of urban black voters in Dallas and Houston and their turnout levels will be well beyond the historical norms. If he can do the same thing in East Texas, he has a chance of overwhelming Mrs. Clinton's overwhelming Hispanic support. (Conservative white male Democrats are not good prospects to vote for Mrs. Clinton in Texas and those who go to the polls will probably pick Obama.)

East Texas, a region that spans a distance from Dallas to Houston and up through Tyler and over to Beaumont-Port Arthur, has been a profound political influence in Texas and has decided many statewide elections. The electorate there has been overwhelmingly conservative and any East Texas Democrat caught north of the Red River was easily mistaken for a conservative Republican. In fact, during the 80s Ronald Reagan identified them precisely that way and courted their vote by calling them "Reagan Democrats." Eventually, they became Republicans and stopped identifying themselves with the Democratic Party of Texas. The African-American vote in East Texas, however, stayed with the Democrats and, sufficiently inspired, can help Obama to victory in Texas.

The open primary in Texas will also complicate the dynamics of the vote. John McCain will either be the presumptive or declared nominee on the date of the Texas primary and Republicans may not be that interested in casting meaningless votes. Those that think Hillary would be easy to beat in the general election might go help her March 4th by casting ballots in the Democratic Texas primary, though it is hard to believe these numbers will be significant enough to alter the outcome of final totals.

The truth is, however, this is still Texas and we elected George W. Bush governor, twice, and we voted by a 2-1 margin to make sure gay people don't get married and our current governor has just published a book that is largely a polemic about the threat gays pose to the Boy Scouts of America. We are still trying to figure out how to create a constitutional funding method for our schools even though the lawsuit that prompted the debate was won by the poor schools in 1968. Our property taxes are among the highest in the country because the legislature will never tax income on corporations or individuals and more and more people are unable to get into homes because of tax burdens...

Aw hell...you get the picture.

There are some forward-thinking, progressive people in Texas...lots of them, and they are excited about this election and both candidates but the progressive thinkers are not in control. The Democratic Party is presently trying to reconcile the interests of progressives and conservatives within its ranks. While there is optimism here about a viable Democratic presidential candidate, neither Clinton nor Obama is a choice many conservative Democrats want to make.

And the winner may be the candidate that conservative Democrats dislike the least.

Follow James Moore on Twitter: www.twitter.com/moorethink

Comments

[Sketchartist]

James Moore states, "There is a historical antipathy between African-American and Mexican American voters in Texas."

Is that why, in Dallas in the 1990s, black mayor Ron Kirk received more than 70 percent of the Hispanic vote?

[nihilon x]

Likewise, latino mayor Villagairosa received about 70 percent of the black vote in Los Angeles.

[mamiller318]

I was born in Texas and have lived here all of my life. Truthfully, I have wanted to leave for many years, but my entire HUGE family lives here and I do not want to take my kids away from them. I was against the war from the first whispers of it, but was scared to voice my opinion. It felt like I was the only one within 100 miles against it. I am extremely excited that the primary here finally counts for something. My husband and I vote in every election, but it never truly matters (except in teaching our children -we always take them). There are many good people in Texas. There are also a lot of ignorant (not necessarily bad) people here. Too many people believe in voting on one issue (usually abortion) and do not even understand the differences in the parties. Most of the people I know are republican and middle class. I even have an uncle who considers himself married to his life long same sex partner who argues with me because I am a democrat. He is convinced that democrats ruin his business. So, my husband and I are a little lonely here in Fort Worth Texas, but I still take offense to the assumption that we are all just a bunch of hick idiots.

[mamiller318]

I would like to add that Rick Perry is pathetic as was George Bush. No Child Left Behind is ruining our schools. I don't know how anyone can think otherwise. My children are bored out of their minds at school and complain constantly about learning ABSOLUTELY NOTHING except how to take a test they could ace on the first day of school. Where is science? Where is history? Why are we not teaching our elementary students other languages? Hell, my kids have never even had recess. It is ridiculous. They seriously could go to school just on test days and waste the rest of the year at home playing video games and probably learn as much if not more. All of the students, parents, and teachers hate these tests. I do not understand how the Bush administration can continue to praise its success.

[paixa3]

EVERYONE is left behind when rethuglicans are in office, ANY OFFICE.

[Herrington]

And you should take umbrage. Calling all Texans hicks is a fad, unfortunately born of Bush’s ascendancy into the government. People seem to have forgotten Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards, Lloyd Bentsen and LBJ. Also, they seem to have forgotten the Alamo, the outstanding service of Texans in both world wars and in Korea and Vietnam. In WW 2, the 36th Infantry Division took the ninth highest casualties of the war and its men earned 14 Medals of Honor. These United States would be a poorer place without the historic contributions of fighting men and legislators that were sons of Texas.

But the same pox is on Texas that is on the nation. That is the marriage of convenience that is religious fundamentalism and conservatism. As you say, your neighbors and friends vote on abortion and not on issues. This is the political sickness of our times. The Republicans have used religion to short circuit the democratic process and hide the agenda of the conservative movement behind more compelling religious imperatives. It is the most dishonest and even contra-Con­stitutiona­l thing that has ever been done in American politics, and has poisoned the ability of Americans to make informed decisions.

Reagan put this usurious alliance together and you can see it splitting before your eyes as, variously, McCain, Huckabee and Romney split the primary vote in the Republican party, each representing a different faction for three competing political objectives. Bush was the candidate who could, in theory, keep all of these disparate factions together. It was made as if in anticipation of him. But he added a war.

Texas is not the only place that is confused. My hope is that the turmoil caused by Bush will lift this up to the American people and to the Republicans themselves.

[dartagnan]

"Also, they seem to have forgotten the Alamo ..."

Ah yes, that glorious chapter in Texans' fight for "freedom." The freedom to own slaves, that is.

"But the same pox is on Texas that is on the nation. That is the marriage of convenience that is religious fundamentalism and conservati­sm."

You're right about that, although the pox is more virulent in Texas and the rest of the South than in the rest of the nation. And there is a reason for that, which is that religious fundamentalism flourishes in the soil of ignorance. The South is and always has been the most backward and benighted region of the country, educationally and culturally, going back to pre-Revolutionary times. Of course there are intelligent, well-educated and cultured people in Texas and the rest of the South, and I don't wish to offend you or them, but the overall pattern is indisputable.

[DocTwain]

The "wedge" issues have been successfully used to split the political and economic power of the working class (which obviously includes the so-called "middle" class, who all work for a living or are retired workers).

Until some president recognizes the one-sided class war (as Edwards does) and clearly explains what has been done to us and suggests putting aside the "wedge" issues until after we fight the cartels and plutocrats, we will never be able to bridge the divide between working class Americans or solve our nation's most pressing problems.

Working class Republicans have far more in common with working class Democrats than with the Walton family. There is a lot we can and MUST do together to save and improve this country and someone must help the working class to understand that and UNITE. It would only take one term to solve our economic problems and then we could fight each other over abortion again as much as we want.

[mcartri]

One of my heroes was from Texas, Molly Ivins. Jim Hightower is from Texas. There are many fine Texans, even those I do not agree with politically. I'm from the state that has Lincoln's body.

[PortiaElizabeth]

Honey, you are not alone. The blue state underground has just been waiting for the Dixie Chicks to write our anthem. Texas liberals are still alive. They just couldn't be heard for a few years over all those loud Repubs.

[imagram3785]

Wow. What a coincidence. I never heard of "Alonzo Cantu" before yesterday. It appears that the Clintons will be visiting Texas this week. Their millionaire friend/fundraiser Alonzo Cantu is hosting a PRIVATE Fundraiser on 2/13/08 in McAllen, TX. Cantu has raised very large sums for Hillary. The Clintons are also scheduled to appear in Hidalgo County that same day, to meet with those on the lower economic scale, and discuss what their vote for Hillary will do for them. I read up on Mr. Cantu. He has a great amount of influence in his county, and has always been grateful to Bill Clinton for implementing NAFTA. Obviously, I am not a Clinton fan. It is not government "for the people, by the people" when unqualified people are given cabinet positions as "payback" when a new President takes over. Barack Obama wants to end this accepted practice, and will work to unite all of America. Hillary Clinton is not an acceptable alternative. It would be disastrous to let the Clintons take over the White House again. Hope Texans are brave enough to reject the Clinton Corporation.

[melonman]

I haven't made up my mind regarding Hillary vs Obama, but, imagram, your over-the-top comments are absurd.

What was so "disastrous" about the first Clinton administration? What about balancing the budget and economic prosperity didn't you like? Perhaps you prefer the total disaster that shrub has presided over the last 8 eternities.

Obviously, you don't explain why you're "obviously" not a Clinton fan.

Try to get a grip before you open your mouth and insert both feet.

[apresdeluge]

So now Clinton is being criticized for meeting with "those on the lower economic scale"? I always thought that Democrats were the inclusive party who were trying to provide opportunity to help people on "the lower economic scale". Your elitism is showing and it sounds an awful lot like a Republican way of thinking. Go "unite" somewhere else.

[texastrixie]

Im a 6th generation native Texan who thinks Obama will take the state. Yes we have a large Hispanic population, but many of them are not eligible to vote. Also, there are no half-hearted Democrats here. If you have the courage to be a Democrat in this state, you ae not some lightweight "progressi­ve." You are a liberal, period. I think Obama will take the primary, but it's for naught. Texas has not been in the Democratic column in the general elections since LBJ (I think). Small districts have Democratic representation, but nothing state-wide.

[LeftLeanWing]

Right now the battle is for the primary. We really couldn't expect a state that produced two Bushes to turn blue all of a sudden.

By the way how do most Texans feel about W Bush right now ?

[TexanJane]

To: LeftLeanWing - I honestly don't know a single Texan who isn't mortified by BushCo. But then, I live in Austin and don't hang with Guv Good-Hair Perry.

Wait, yes I guess I do. Wealthy East Texans with whom I grew up and who yesterday and today have filled my mail box with diatribes about the tyranny certain to befall the Republic if either Hillary or Obama is elected. Their issue? What else but the right to stockpile an arsenal in the lean-to out back behind the garage. Jeez...

Down here in Austin we are far more progressive. But you make a good point as to Primary v. General. We may well determine the Democratic nominee, but our depressingly high population of Bubbas will give Texas to the Repugs in November.

[RoseMerry]

I came to Texas when I was six - hey, it was earlier than Davy Crockett did! And I have all ready lived longer than him, but not as famously or provide his Great Service, to be sure.

But, seriously, after LBJ and this the Bush and then the Scrub, Texas as a bit of karma to pay. I hope that if Obama can take Alabama (where George Wallace once reigned!), he can take Texas!

I hope Texans will remember the CoPresidents Clinton "great" leader at the standoff at Mt. Carmel (near Waco).

No more baby burners in the White House

[Spookcatcher]

The democratic party is whining and crying worse than a newborn nursery. they decided therir own system and voting process and they still eliminate the best candidates offered for the Office of the presidency and now they reduce the party to the two factionsof an American Idol stage production and they stil can't get happy. the country is so patheic. we need a fluid democracy with and electoral process that is accessed by the same technology as our bank cards are. With online access for every bill proposed and a statement available to show every vote we make and what it was. complete transparanecy and stop this 2 party farce that is orchestrated by the Ruling Class to lock the populus out, not put us in control.

[Gatormouth]

Well Texas, a chance for payback for Delay acting as gauleiter for the Bush administration and dictating an unscheduled re-apportionment to steal your state's government, for the stealing of your Guard troops (needed at home) for an elective war and occupation, and for the hijacking of your Nation's constitution. I, for one, have faith in you!

"Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall set you free": Texas, Fight!!

[JulieSA]

Steal the state government?

The redistricting was perfectly legal, and resulted in the legislature better representing the electorate. A Democrat hasn't won a statewide office in years, yet the legislature was majority Democratic. That proves that there was funny business in the previous Dem-controlled redistricting.

[situationcritical]

You are the first person EVER I've heard argue that Tom Delay's redistricting was done to prevent people from stealing Texas State governments. Hell, even Texas repubs cop to that one.

[Herrington]

Mr. Moore, unlike you I am a Native Texan. And before the boos start, unlike you I have not lived there for 30 years.

The Texas I knew was the old Dixiecrat Texas. Whole segregated towns of black inhabitants existed in East Texas. Mexican Americans lived as shadows in the society and the economy.

Maybe we are born to our eventual political allegiances. My mother was terrified to give birth to her children in Pecos. She was half Choctaw. And the local country doctor had an infant mortality rate of 8 in 10 for minority babies. She was half German so I guess we got a pass.

I expect things have changed. But still, any community that is confused enough in their philosophy and ethics to have elected Bush twice may not deserve to be involved in the election process. Wait. Darn. I guess that would include the entire country!

[JulieSA]

Yes, that was back in the old racist, corrupt Dixiecrat days, as you say. Duke of Duval, Box 13, LBJ-Brown&Root, Ben Barnes, etc. I grew up with that, too. We left that crap and joined the Republicans, as did Gov Perry, and many other prominent Republicans. Government here is much cleaner and better run than in the Dem days of my youth.

[situationcritical]

No, you drug that crap with you to the repubs...t­he manure in that party was the perfect fertilizer for your racist ideals.

What are you going to do when your Governor Perry is outed?

[Herrington]

Billy Estes was it? Ah the good old days. But please explain what you mean by cleaner and better. The national audience here would like to hear the case for letting Texas back into the proverbial union.

Incidentally, I spent ten years in California in the Silicon Valley boom. I conclude this. Californians are as corrupt as any but with ferns.

[fire67]

I was born in Texas and lived there a couple of times. Hope I never have to go back. Apologies to you brave and masochistic progressives but Texas apparently slows or totally stops evolution. The mind set of most people in that state is neo or not so neo cave dweller. The less they have do to with picking a president the better for the nation and the world.

[ballewb]

Nice, mature sentiment. Maybe the rest of the enlightened country, about half of which also voted for President Bush, could help us poor, intellectually inferior Texans in this matter. Or, you could just continue to dogpile with this inane patter. Look in the mirror folks. You're no better. No wonder the Republicans call you a batch of elitists. I have heard more intolerance in these comments and on this sight as a whole than I ever thought I would hear from anyone other than neo-cons. Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. You two have something in common.

[PortiaElizabeth]

A native painting all Texans with the same broad, biased brush? I don't know where you grew up, but please don't try to speak about, or for, all Texans.

[Pietro]

In California, an unprecedented number of Decline-to-State voters (mostly independents probably) rushed to the polls last Tuesday to vote in the Democratic Party primary. But at least HALF of these voters in Los Angeles County -- 20% of the electorate in the largest election jurisdiction in America -- are now finding out that their vote was rejected because they "failed" to fill out a meaningless bubble on a confusing ballot.

We don't know if -- as the Los Angeles Daily News speculated -- the "double bubble" debacle "could affect the number of delegates each candidate gets -- potentially determining the Democratic nominee for president.­" We do know that, no matter the speculation, we can't take one vote for granted.

Spread the word. Count every vote: http://www.couragecampaign.org/page/m/6fdf9034d7f5ce27/OroJRX/VEsB/

[UltraClassic]

Why in the world is it that democrats seem to constantly get their butts kicked by ballots?

[Pietro]

In California, an unprecedented number of Decline-to-State voters (independents) rushed to the polls last Tuesday to vote in the Democratic Party primary. But at least HALF of these voters in Los Angeles County -- 20% of the electorate in the largest election jurisdiction in America -- are now finding out that their vote was rejected because they "failed" to fill out a meaningless bubble on a confusing ballot.

We don't know if -- as the Los Angeles Daily News speculated -- the "double bubble" debacle "could affect the number of delegates each candidate gets -- potentially determining the Democratic nominee for president.­" We do know that, no matter the speculation, we can't take one vote for granted.

Spread the word. Count every vote: http://www.couragecampaign.org/page/m/6fdf9034d7f5ce27/OroJRX/VEsE/

[letsmakesense]

Texas will not vote for McCain after they learn that McCain is a coward and a traitor. That's right John McCain is not a war hero.
This info comes from real war heroes, not the mass military industrial controlled media.
http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/
How are Texans going to learn the truth.
From Ron Paul supporters.

[JulieSA]

My husband personally knows Bud Day, and he's a big McCain supporter. Go peddle your nuttery somewhere else. Or better, keep it up, because it'll backfire on you to McCain's benefit.

[JulieSA]

Here's a website affiliated with the one you cite:

http://www.usvetdsp.com/dec06/obama_muslim.htm

[JulieSA]

And here's the evidence that they're affiliated:

http://rawstory.com/news/2007/AntiMcCain_vets_ready_their_salvo_against_0302.html

[JulieSA]

"You have to have entered the world over this sacred soil to be considered a Texan."

I disagree with that. Sam Houston, Sam Maverick, Davy Crockett, Jim Bowie and my rancher great-grandfathers were not born here either. One of my great-grandfathers picked buffalo bones off the prairie to make a living, and the other lived in a dugout while establishing his ranch. If you try to tell me that they aren't real Texans, then you are full of it.

Actually, I wasn't born here either, because my mama met my daddy in college up north, and they stayed there until daddy finished law school. Guess what? No one has EVER told me I'm not a real Texan, and if anyone ever tried to, I would make him very, very sorry that that thought had ever entered his mind.

Similarly, George Bush has lived in Texas since the age of two.

BTW, if things are so awful here, Mr Moore, why is everyone moving here? Four of the top ten fastest growing cities are in Texas.

[biglover]

Because housing is cheap - that's why. Why else would anyone move to Texas - except maybe for Austin

[MinuteMan]

If people were so smart why did they vote to re-elect the Shrub?

[RogerHWerner]

Everyone is moving to Texas? I'd love to see the population statistics to support that statement. And regretfully, Moore is correct: Texas is bloody awful. So bloody awful that I wouldn't live there under any circumstances. Texas seems like the perfect is a wonderful place if your white and well to do. If your black or Hispanic forget social or economic justice, and, if you're a non-rich white, the well-to-do will make sure you do just well enough to keep you in support of the status quo. I can't come up with enough words to describe the low regard that I hold Texas and everything it stands for.

[JulieSA]

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/27/real_estate/fastest_growing_cities/index.htm

It's obvious that you have no idea what you're talking about. What do you base your opinion on, besides your imagination? Do you have any actual knowledge or experience in the area, or do you just formulate opinions on hearsay?

[Ides]

Mr. Moore, I've dissected Texas in almost an identical method in other comment sections and it's good to see a sober, well-researched support for those points.


In short, Texas is going to be a tight race.

[Pietro]

In California, excited by the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, an unprecedented number of Decline-to-State voters (independents) rushed to the polls last Tuesday to vote in the Democratic Party primary. But at least HALF of these voters in Los Angeles County -- 20% of the electorate in the largest election jurisdiction in America -- are now finding out that their vote was rejected because they "failed" to fill out a meaningless bubble on a confusing ballot.

We don't know if -- as the Los Angeles Daily News speculated -- the "double bubble" debacle "could affect the number of delegates each candidate gets -- potentially determining the Democratic nominee for president.­" We do know that, no matter the speculation, we can't take one vote for granted.

Spread the word. Count every vote:

http://www.couragecampaign.org/CountEveryVote