Leaving it Up to Texas? Again? Seriously?

The state that gave the planet George W. Bush is poised to play a historic role in the selection of the Democratic presidential candidate. Oh irony of ironies. We always manage to stumble into destiny's crossroads and force detours. March 4th, a date that wasn't supposed to mean much in the Democratic primary process, may give Texas further undue influence over this nation's democracy.

Before I indulge in further analytical posturing, I need to point out that I was not born here and therefore I am not a true Texan. You have to have entered the world over this sacred soil to be considered a Texan. I was not, but I have been writing and reporting on politics in Texas since 1975 and I was here when Jimmy Carter tried out his non-Tex-Mex Spanish in the Rio Grande Valley and I was here when the Bushes wrongly decided they were fit to lead. Hell, I even bought a cowboy hat to wear in a jacket cover photo for Bush's Brain, a complete marketing ploy to sell cowboy politics.

Even though I am not a Texan, except by choice, I know something about how things both work and fail under the Lone Star skies. And they often fail. We are historically 49th in categories like Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Medicaid, and any kind of social service. An estimated 5 million people, almost a quarter of the population, are without health insurance. Our unofficial state motto is "Thank God for Mississippi."

So fate gives us political power again in the Democratic primary? Perfectly understandable, eh? Let me make one of my consistently inaccurate predictions on the outcome.

First, Senator Clinton can be expected to overwhelmingly win the Mexican-American vote. The Clintons have been coming to Texas almost from the outset of their political rise and have frequently visited the border regions where the population is well over 90 percent Hispanic. In fact, Mrs. Clinton is tentatively scheduled to speak Wednesday night at Pan American University in Hidalgo County in the Rio Grande Valley. McAllen businessman Alonzo Cantu has raised large amounts of money for her and her husband through the years. Senator Obama has a great challenge to make meaningful inroads into that support.

But it isn't that simple.

There is a historical antipathy between African-American and Mexican American voters in Texas. And it will not be easily overcome. A friend, who is an African-American legislator from Houston, explained it to me by suggesting that "blacks and browns have spent too damned many years fighting each other over the crumbs left by the white folks in this state."

Gross oversimplifications often contain a germ of truth.

For most of its existence, the Texas legislature has been dominated by rural influences. White men were elected and controlled the powerful committees. Even in the cow counties and along the border where the Hispanic population often outnumbered the Anglo, white candidates won by intimidation and other less than democratic tactics. When the state began its transition from being a part of the South to becoming a centerpiece of the Sunbelt, growth boomed in the urban areas and they took control of the legislative and political processes. African-Americans in Dallas and Houston appeared to Mexican-Americans, who were concentrated more in South Texas, to have a disproportionate political influence. Many Hispanic voters felt disconnected from the processes and once more marginalized.

In spite of the heroic efforts of the Southwest Voter Registration Project to increase the numbers of Mexican-Americans in the polling places on Election Day, they have tended to not turn out in anticipated numbers. Even when a Laredo businessman with a Hispanic surname became the first to run for governor, vote totals for Mexican-Americans remained at historically standard levels. Expect Mrs. Clinton to win their vote by a big margin but whether she inspires Mexican-American numbers to go beyond normal primary turnout levels is likely to determine whether she will win.

Senator Obama's candidacy, however, will dramatically increase the turnout of African-American voters in Texas, mostly in the cities and East Texas. His success is likely to hinge on the large black population in the piney woods of East Texas. Obama will handily carry the vote of urban black voters in Dallas and Houston and their turnout levels will be well beyond the historical norms. If he can do the same thing in East Texas, he has a chance of overwhelming Mrs. Clinton's overwhelming Hispanic support. (Conservative white male Democrats are not good prospects to vote for Mrs. Clinton in Texas and those who go to the polls will probably pick Obama.)

East Texas, a region that spans a distance from Dallas to Houston and up through Tyler and over to Beaumont-Port Arthur, has been a profound political influence in Texas and has decided many statewide elections. The electorate there has been overwhelmingly conservative and any East Texas Democrat caught north of the Red River was easily mistaken for a conservative Republican. In fact, during the 80s Ronald Reagan identified them precisely that way and courted their vote by calling them "Reagan Democrats." Eventually, they became Republicans and stopped identifying themselves with the Democratic Party of Texas. The African-American vote in East Texas, however, stayed with the Democrats and, sufficiently inspired, can help Obama to victory in Texas.

The open primary in Texas will also complicate the dynamics of the vote. John McCain will either be the presumptive or declared nominee on the date of the Texas primary and Republicans may not be that interested in casting meaningless votes. Those that think Hillary would be easy to beat in the general election might go help her March 4th by casting ballots in the Democratic Texas primary, though it is hard to believe these numbers will be significant enough to alter the outcome of final totals.

The truth is, however, this is still Texas and we elected George W. Bush governor, twice, and we voted by a 2-1 margin to make sure gay people don't get married and our current governor has just published a book that is largely a polemic about the threat gays pose to the Boy Scouts of America. We are still trying to figure out how to create a constitutional funding method for our schools even though the lawsuit that prompted the debate was won by the poor schools in 1968. Our property taxes are among the highest in the country because the legislature will never tax income on corporations or individuals and more and more people are unable to get into homes because of tax burdens...

Aw hell...you get the picture.

There are some forward-thinking, progressive people in Texas...lots of them, and they are excited about this election and both candidates but the progressive thinkers are not in control. The Democratic Party is presently trying to reconcile the interests of progressives and conservatives within its ranks. While there is optimism here about a viable Democratic presidential candidate, neither Clinton nor Obama is a choice many conservative Democrats want to make.

And the winner may be the candidate that conservative Democrats dislike the least.

Follow James Moore on Twitter: www.twitter.com/moorethink

Comments

[ICUP]

Where's the outrage about the power of California? They gave use Tricky Dick, Ronnie, and Arnie. Plus, they gave us all manner of wacky referendums, the LAPD, and the careers of Bay and Bruckheimer.

[MinuteMan]

At least Californians were smart enough to not make Nixon their governor.

[ICUP]

What about Ronnie?

[kellygrrrl]

as a CA Dem, I do apologize for one thing:

Dianne Feinstein

[LionEater]

I second that. I like Boxer, though.

[ched]

Thank you. And I for Bob Effing Casey (Santorum's replacement). And, of course, Arlen.

[TCB]

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[Pietro]

TCB,
Keep trying to cast this into a gender war. We're pretty much clued into Clinton's constant attempts to divide and conquer by now.

[Pauper]

When I see any sexism and misogyny in this election, I'll sign the petition......

[DasBoatless]

Never heard of the petitionsite before. Now * times in 2 days. Quit your spamming and advertise your crap elsewhere!!!!

[DasBoatless]

8 times, sorry...

[PrdAmerican]

Will the influx of displaced louisiana citizens affect the vote..there was talk that a post Katrina political shift could occur. Possible?

Just curious.

[Bright Creature]

If things work out the way they need to Texas will be seeing a lot of things it's leaders don't like.

[Mojane]

A dear friend of mine, no longer with us and the world a less kind place because of it, a Texas native, voted Rep. all her life, voted GWB both times, but when he started to toot for invading Iraq, she said she was terribly disappointed in him. I said, "Mary Love, you surprise me by that comment," to which she replied, "I'm not stupid." I wish she were here to vote for Obama.

[MinuteMan]

> I said, "Mary Love, you surprise me by that comment," to which she replied, "I'm not stupid."

Just a little bit slow, though?

[shockinaw]

If Obama tops the ticket, we will not win against any republiscu­m.....this is political suicide people. If Hillary tops the ticket we have a chance......the next prez will have to get every vote Kerry got plus some of the R's ...and don't forget about the largest untapped eligible demographic of nonvoting Americans (35 million single women of every race/age, not likely to vote for McCain) she could easily win them over, and we could have that huge majority it takes to make real change, if only the Obama supporters could take off those "Rose-colored glasses of Hope". Polls Schmolls....the bottom line is that on November 4th Americas racist nature will be solidified in the minds of everyone and the ironic thing is that we will have the "Neo" progressives and liberals to thank for this, if y'all don't wake up soon it will be too late.

[UltraClassic]

Hillary '08

James, I'm sitting in Hidalgo County right now. I know Alonzo Cantu well. He's a damn good man who came from nothing to build an empire but he has never forgotten where he came from. I'm a Texan. And all I can say is you sound like a pasty white north eastern liberal who may be a little upset because you (obviously being an Obama supporter) may not get your way here.

Yah, the Clintons have spent lot's of time here and yes, Alonso is a big backer of them. So friggen what! I don't recall any black candidates spending any real time down here, but the Clintons have.

And as far as Texas ranking low in some of those issues you state, why don't you go measure the length of the border from Brownsville to ElPaso and get back with me on that. I dare say that if any of your north eastern liberal states shared a border as long as we do with a 3rd word country, they would have issues too.

Texas does it's own thing. Yah we had Bush, but we also had Richards and Johnson. And don't forget the late Molly Ivins. Just deal with the plan on the ground and in the future, maybe one of your guys needs to spend more time down here. The Clintons did and it is their just reward to have our support.

PS being white, a business owner and living on the border does not make you a racist. You Obama people need to give that up, it's getting old.

Hillary '08

[TxWonderWoman]

Thanks for the encouragement from the south end Ultra... We are with you here in Austin too. Go Hillary

[julianne]

Do you have to regularly visit some Godforsaken town in Hidalgo County, Texas for anyone there to vote for you? What about the issues, platform, and short and long term plans for our rendered nation? Before the last Presidential Election was stolen by Texans, a man in Houston told me that he was in Corpus Christi and met Bush, Sr. (the Good Cop). He said that he was a "really nice guy and I'm going to vote for "W". I thought to myself as I do now, that nothing more needed to be said.

[UltraClassic]

Juli, you know what they say, all politics is local. And the fact of the matter is, the Clintons were one of the best things that ever happened to South Texas. We are exploding in growth. We are truly global in our economy. NAFTA was a godsend to us. While north eastern liberals and isolationists whine and cry about the fact that they now need to compete, we suck it up and get things done.

Clinton and Bush I had much to do with our success. Even Bush II, despite the fact that he has sucked as a president was in fact a pretty good governor who involved Hispanics in his administration at a level previously not seen in this state. True, they tended to business leaders rather than hell raising radicals.

Obama could give a rat's a$$ about the border. He knows it, and we know it.

[SShaw490]

Well, I'm here in Montgomery county and I can promise you I'll cancel your vote right out. The Clinton's "just reward"? Boy, you drank all the kool aid the Clintons served, didn't you?

Hillary Clinton is the only person I ever heard of, that thought she "deserved" the presidency because it was "her turn".

[dartagnan]

Hillary Clinton is the only person I ever heard of, that thought she "deserved" the presidency because it was "her turn".

Bob Dole?

[PortiaElizabeth]

The Woodlands? I used to live there only my friends called it Stepford for obvious reasons.
You couldn't be more wrong, so you are not entitled to be insulting. Now go back to playing on the carousel at the mall.

[ched]

Sure, a "damn good man" may be one way to describe Mr. Cantu. But there are other words to describe a guy who leans on his own employees to make campaign contributions they cannot afford so he can be a big shot with the Clintons, and extract exemptions for himself and a bunch of his business partners - doctors who operate a soon to be illegal hospital that is essentially functions as a kick-back machine - and who also invested heavily in the Clintons with what the doctors call "protection money." This guy would make Boss Hogg proud.

[AxelDC]

The Texas Primary is 3 weeks away. Three weeks ago, Bill Clinton quipped that South Carolina would be meaningless like it was for Jesse Jackson.

Let's wait until at least the end of February before handicapping a race that will be largely decided by other events. The facile "black vote this way and Latinos vote that way" ignores results from many primaries already cast, there are several more before Texas has its say.

Before you blame Texas for Bush, remember Texas also produced: Dan Rather, LBJ, Sam Rayburn, Tom Landry, Lloyd Benson, Molly Ivins, Ann Richards, Matthew McConaughey, Earl Cambell and Lance Armstrong.

[eddiestardust]

I Blame Texas for LEE HARVEY OSWALD!
I also blame Texas for the WORST 6 YEARS OF MY LIFE.

I say let's keep Houston..because of NASA and SELL TEXAS BACK TO MEXICO!!!!!

[JulieSA]

Dude, Oswald was a pro-Soviet/Cuba communist. He's your boy.

He was reared in several locations around the country.

[Quaoar]

Mexico no quiere Texas. Especially if it means that they get Jorge Arbusto.

[dartagnan]

Would Mexico buy it? Hell, would they even take it for free?

[TommyMcCarthy]

Here's another Bill Clinton quote that didn't happen....­..........­..........­..........­...tm

[unitron]

"Before you blame Texas for Bush, remember Texas also produced: Dan Rather, LBJ, Sam Rayburn, Tom Landry, Lloyd Benson, Molly Ivins, Ann Richards, Matthew McConaughey, Earl Cambell and Lance Armstrong."

You left out Bill Moyers and Kinky Friedman.

[JulieSA]

Bentsen, not Benson. Sorry, but I helped my parents at Bentsen campaign HQ as an adolescent.

[situationcritical]

Oddly, you didn't include a single famous African-American, say like, Jamie Foxx, for instance.

[Chuckwheat]

And Walter Cronkite, Buddy Holly, Audie Murphy,and the Texas Chainsaw Maasacre.

[TheDoomed]

He's from Connecticut.

[JulieSA]

Bush has lived in Texas since the age of two. Which is more than 50 years longer than Hillary has lived in New York.

[Mikeatle]

Yep. Bush is a REAL Texan.

[Chuckwheat]

I'm undecided, wanting to peer through the smoke and thunder of Obama's supporters in order to see the candidate, get past the Hillary-hate and kumbaya.
I'm a native Texan and admit we get empty vessels like the Emperor Bush (born in Yankeeland) to represent our state.
Houston has Bill White, a Democratic mayor, serving his final term under term limits.
I wonder how the Tx college population will affect the vote. If the majority gets behind Obama, that could be a substantial number.
UT, U of Houston, Rice, Prarieview, TSU, San Marcos could add a lot of Dem. support.
I won't name the conservative colleges, preferring to let them remain in the dark.

[TxWonderWoman]

The problem with obama counting on youth vote in Texas is from what I've seen the "trendy" candidate that has captured their attention here is Ron Paul. You see Paul signs all over Austin

[SShaw490]

Bill White is a very good man. After Katrina, he did the thing politicians usually do very poorly - he used common sense - and said Houston would take care of as many victims as we could hold and figure out later how to pay for it. My wife kind of adopted one family and we go to see them at Christmas and birthdays and they're a joy in our lives.

Listen to Hillary and Obama and make up your own mind. Find the one that just seems to have good sense. Like the good sense to oppose the war in Iraq from the beginning, the good sense to oppose Kyl-Lieberman, the good sense to see ethics reform as a paramount issue, the good sense to refuse lobbyist and PAC money for his campaign, the good sense to see our need for a leader who looks to find common ground without sacrificing principles rather than looking for a way to wedge people apart and blame the other side when there's no progress....

[JulieSA]

Bill White handled Katrina/Rita extremely well. The primary logistics fell on Houston, but when Houstonians and the Katrina refugees they took in had to flee Rita, the rest of the state stepped up to plate. My family took in refugees, helped out with pets at the humane society, and brought clothes and toiletries to the huge shelters that were set up here. It was great to participate with all the gov. agencies, businesses, churches, NGOs and individuals who were pitching in.

[fishwanda]

SShaw, thank you for your comments. Bill White is a great public servant. Here in Houston an owerwhelming majority of people I talked to plan to vote for Obama, either because they like him or because they greatly dislike Clintons. These are mostly middle age white middle class urban and suburban professionals, Democrats and Independents. I am actually surprised by numbers... If Obama visits before March 4th, I have no doubts he will win Houston/Galveston, which have the highest no. of delegates (26) in the entire state.

[LionEater]

Just look at how they have run their campaigns. That's the kind of president they'll be.

[BlueIslandInTexas]

As my profile name suggests, I live in Austin Texas and I don't see a chance in hell that Obama doesn't carry the urban areas. Austin and Dallas will more than likely go for him as there are large numbers of educated folks in both of these towns and Houston's large African-American population will help him carry that city as well. Where his sore spots will be are San Antonio and further south where the population tends to be less educated and primarily hispanic. West Texas has largely the "urban male" vote factor at play which I think will be a wash in this election with maybe a slight edge towards Obama.

[SShaw490]

That's almost assured, but south Texas will be a tough place for Barack. It's OK, that's why they have elections, so ALL the people can vote. Even if they vote the wrong way...

[BlueIslandInTexas]

Agreed. I grew up in Corpus Christi and the folks down there, God bless them, are crazy. If they go for Obama, I'll drive down to the valley and kiss some ass. I promise.

[DHeil]

From the heart of Dallas, I would encourage Obama to seek the vote of white Obamacans, or rather, the Hillary Haters. The Clintons are HATED here in the bible belt of Texas. HATED, HATED, HATED. This is republican country. Period.

If I were one of these bible belt Hillary Haters, I would be inclined to cross party lines and vote for Obama on the hope that Hillary would be taken out early.

[eddiestardust]

Well, there are a heck of a lot of people who HATE DALLAS!

[PortiaElizabeth]

Now, now, you have to forgive them and remember they're the ones responsible for big hair. And not much else.

[Pquilson]

I am not from Texas, either (but Texas wants you anyway?-Lyle Lovitt).
The history of the world did not start with the election of Bush to be governor.
Seems like a fellow named Johnson was elected in 1948 from Texas to the House of Representatives. Seems he later became POTUS. Successful fellow. Escalated the Viet Nam war, then refused to run for re-election.
What happens in Texas during the caucus and primary is anyone's guess,IMHO.

[jason10006]

"That said, Obama does as well with rural white men as Hillary does with Latinos."

Not apples to apples, as there are Latino men AND women...which is why Hil won CA.

[Shannon2008]

But, CA is not TX. I'm in Dallas and have many Latin American friends. The trend has been that Latin Americans in Texas are migrating to the Republican party. Even though the press has said that one in four democratic voters will be Latin American, it is not a gaurantee. In 2002 Tony Sanchez took on Rick Perry and lost for the Texas govenorship. Obama really didn't have the time to appeal to Latin American voters in CA. I have cousins who live in CA, and there has been tension between the African American and Latin American communities, just as there has been tension between the African American and Asian American communities. I do not believe that this is the case in TX to the same degree that it is in CA. With Obama proposing drivers licenses for illegal immigrants, a portion of Latin Americans may turn to him. Also, the idea that the mandate that Hilary wants to enforce for universal health care is to prohibit illegals from receiving free health care at emergency rooms, may swing some Latin Americans to Obama. I have to admit that this will not stop illegal immigrants from receiving health care at emergency rooms because it is unethical to turn people away. It just means that they may be cited for failure to maintain insurance and deported after receiving care. Today, they just walk away because its not a crime and no citations are issued at local hospitals. Lastly, many of the Latin Americans in CA are organized unlike in Texas. Latin Americans are far more independent. The Latin American community is far more diverse in Texas for example many are evangelicals.

[angrystan]

"You have to have entered the world over this sacred soil to be considered a Texan"

and thank god for that. The more time I spend in Austin, the prouder I become of my origin from the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

[PortiaElizabeth]

You're welcome to return at any time.

[hopeless277]

Texas will go to McCain. Being a native, I can tell you that the enthusiasm for killing and war against anybody is just as alive now as it ever was. We here in Texas could not care less about how many humans are suffering and dead. Just keep the defense plants open and going 24/7 so we can have our jobs. If 4000 Americans have to die to keep our economy going, so be it. If hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have to die so that we can get a paycheck, it's just business. We here in Texas have a saying, 'screw the rest of the world, just give us ours'. That really says it all.

[MinuteMan]

Why is it that in this country the bible-belt is the most pro-war (most any war)?

[dartagnan]

Because the fundies believe that Amurrica is God's Chosen Nation and therefore it has the God-given right to kick the crap out of anybody it wishes.

[montemalone]

Unforunately, yes.

[JulieSA]

"We here in Texas have a saying, 'screw the rest of the world, just give us ours"

Speak for yourself. I never say that. I can't help it if you think that way.

[BlueIslandInTexas]

It has nothing to do with the "bible belt" factor as religion has less to do with sentiment in the south as it does sheer ignorance.

[PortiaElizabeth]

Another non-native heard from.