Mitt Romney is emerging as the grown-up in the GOP primary process, which is too bad. He will not win the nomination. He would make the strongest candidate for the Republicans in 2012 but he cannot win the primaries. The primary process does not require sanity and moderation in the GOP race. The candidate must appeal to the Tea Party, evangelicals, fundamentalists, and right wing conservatives who vote on social issues.
And they rarely vote for Mormons.
Romney's problems with the radical right go a bit beyond his religion. He has refused to sign an abortion pledge because the way it was worded meant that too many federally funded hospitals would be forced to close. He decided that everyone in his state ought to have health care and passed a bill his own party derisively calls Romneycare. He thinks that global warming is a real issue but he is not sure about human contribution to the problem. And he doesn't seem afire with desire to stop gay people from getting married.
Romney makes too much sense to win this GOP nominating process.
And lucky Ricky Perry is the guy in the perfect position to win by default. The Texas governor is neither as smart or as poised as the former Massachusetts governor but he's close enough to be the first choice of the primary voters who will take their anger against Obama into the polls this winter and into next spring. Romney's repeated squishiness on social issues will give them pause and then his religion will help them make their decision to vote for Perry. He is consistently conservative on the social issues that matter to primary voters.
And he is not a Mormon.
Religion is the biggest issue in the GOP primary and it is being completely ignored in the debates and public discourse. The only way a Republican can win back the White House in 2012 is with a southern strategy that turns out huge numbers of conservative Christian voters. And conservative Christian voters do not view the Mormon faith as being a part of Christendom. If Romney is the nominee, they will stay home and President Obama will be easily reelected. Romney's campaign keeps trying to suggest that a tiny percentage of evangelical voters will ignore him because of his faith, which is unfounded optimism.
James Gimpel, a GOP political scientist and consultant, argued in the Boston Globe that Romney is failing to recognize what could be an "insurmountable" problem with fundamentalist Christians. "The question is whether a church-going Christian is willing to set those differences aside as irrelevant to holding the office of president, or take them quite seriously as heretical and cultish. There are a great many evangelical Christians who would have a hard time justifying a vote for Romney under any circumstances."
But they are enthusiastic about the wildly conservative Christian Rick Perry.
Republicans must carry the south, including Florida and Texas, to win the presidency because they will split the plains states and the Intermountain West. The president will win New York and California and the Northeast and the election will come down to the Midwest. Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, and Pennsylvania are the electoral votes that will pick the president. Romney can do well in that part of the country; his father was a popular governor of Michigan. But it is irrelevant unless he wins the south and that is impossible. A Mormon cannot win Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, the Carolinas, and, consequently, the White House.
A 2007 Pew poll reported that 43% of Christians do not believe Mormonism is a Christian religion and among Christian evangelicals that number jumps to 57%. The unanswered question until Election Day is how many of those evangelicals will cast a ballot for a Mormon, who has also been vague or contrarian on social issues that matter to religious conservatives. A significant number of these people view Mormonism as a cult. They will not vote for Mitt Romney.
Rick Perry will have to make a huge mistake to lose this GOP election. Christian conservatives in Iowa will make him a big winner. If he loses in New Hampshire, where Romney has a home and has been campaigning for four years, Perry will win handily in South Carolina as well as Florida. On Super Tuesday, which includes (under current GOP scheduling rules) states like Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, and Virginia, Perry will win handily. Romney has the resources to stay at least through that March 6th multi-state contest but the race will not last any longer and he will be forced to concede.
Romney and Jon Huntsman, both Mormons, are the best candidates for the GOP to have a chance against President Obama. But neither of them will survive the primaries because of their faith. Rick Perry will win.
And the GOP will lose.
Also at: http://www.moorethink.com
Follow James Moore on Twitter: www.twitter.com/moorethink
Mark I. Pinsky: Jews, Evangelicals and 2012: The Sky Is Not Falling
Stay tuned . . .
Here's an idea, companies selling goods here made in China must pay payroll taxes for each employee used in the manufacture of those goods. This will somewhat level the playing field.
Thus, while I certainly agree that their enthusiasm will not be the same if Romney is the nominee because of the points you have made, I think you are seriously underestimating the opposition.
Everyone needs to turn out in the droves in 2012!
But I don't like either of them anyway. The only candidate from the GOP I support is Ron Paul.
He can call himself a Christian all he wants, but he's not a Christian.
"Matthew 25:34-40 34"Then the King will say to those on his right, 'Come, you who are blessed by my Father; take your inheritance, the kingdom prepared for you since the creation of the world. 35For I was hungry and you gave me something to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in, 36I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.'
37"Then the righteous will answer him, 'Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink? 38When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you? 39When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?'
40"The King will reply, 'I tell you the truth, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers of mine, you did for me.'
The article is not about Michelle Obama. At least wait until she is relevant to the story to bash her. What you're referring to is a watch, which was a gift. She didn't buy it.
"The first lady of Ghana, Mrs. Ernestina Naadu Mills has given America’s first lady Michelle Obama a gold watch valued at $48,000, according to a US Federal Register report released in the US Tuesday."
http://www.ghanabusinessnews.com/2011/01/20/naadu-mills-gives-michelle-obama-48000-gold-watch/
The GOP will rally around their nominee regardless of who they are.
Anybody But Obama!
Tags: Barack Obama | Mitt Romney | 2012 President Race | 2012 GOP Primary | Rick Perry | Christie | president
Chris Christie Reconsidering 2012 Run, Will Decide in Days
Read more on Newsmax.com: Chris Christie Reconsidering 2012 Run, Will Decide in Days
Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now!
And the GOP will lose. "
Yes, and the corporatist oligarchy will win, because Obama will sign anything they put in front of him.
The operating principle will be "hey, at least Rick Perry isn't President, so stomach Obama's signature on bills cutting Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security and extending (again) the Bush tax cuts, because things (Rick Perry) could be (Rick Perry) a lot worse (Rick Perry)."
They're setting you up, people. They LIVE to set you up. They have focus groups, think tanks, research institutes, and they craft a detailed strategy to SET YOU UP.
Only Nixon could go to China, and only Obama can gut Social Security.