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Jodi Beggs

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With Government Spending, the When Matters as Much as the How Much

Posted: 08/05/11 11:09 PM ET

In order to begin a discussion about government spending, let's compare two scenarios:

Scenario 1: Let's call this the "eat what you kill" scenario, although the government would prefer to call this the "balanced budget" scenario. In this scenario, the government can only spend what it takes in in taxes in any given year. (This is a bit of an oversimplification since the government can't actually know in advance how much it will collect in taxes, but just go with me here. I suppose this issue could be overcome by spending in a given year what was received in taxes the year before.) The reality of the world is that economic fluctuations exist, and tax revenues are going to be higher in good times and lower in bad times. Therefore, if the government were to match spending to revenue each year, the government would spend more in good times and less in bad times.

Scenario 2: This scenario is basically the opposite of scenario 1. In scenario 2, the government spends more in bad times and less in good times. This means that the government runs a deficit in bad times and a surplus (!!) in good times. (Note that even if the government merely kept spending constant over time it would run a deficit in bad times and a surplus in good times.) Scenario 2 would be designed such that, on average, spending equals taxes, so there wouldn't be a growing debt problem.

Given that the government uses the money it collects to provide services and transfer payments to citizens, the first approach can magnify the ups and downs of economic standard of living rather than mitigate them. To make a household analogy, since the world knows how much I love those, this situation would be as if a dad moved the family into a big house every time business was good and moved the family in to a tiny apartment every time business was bad. This family will likely never be in debt, but this situation seems somehow intuitively unreasonable. In fact, economists typically assume that people prefer consumption that is consistent over time to consumption that fluctuates from day to day or year to year. (And yes, they have data to back up this claim.)

From a utility perspective, then, it's more efficient to have government services be consistent over time than to fluctuate wildly. In addition, it's easier for the public to put their trust and confidence in the government when they can be reasonably certain that what they get from the government today won't be taken away tomorrow. (I think it was Austan Goolsbee who recently pointed out that confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus, and there's certainly something to be said for that notion.) That in itself is a decent argument for scenario 2 over scenario 1, but is there more?

One of the arguments against government spending as stimulus is that it crowds out private investment. This happens because the US usually has to borrow, i.e. issue Treasury bonds, to finance the deficit, and having the government throw its hat into the borrowing ring makes it more expensive for private companies to borrow. (In other words, increasing the demand for borrowing increases the price of borrowing, namely the interest rate.) Therefore, government attempts to stimulate the economy via deficit-financed spending makes it harder for private firms to do their parts to get the economy back on track.

Another argument against spending as stimulus is that, by employing people to complete public projects, the government is taking them away from potential private-sector employment. However, isn't it during recessions that there are a whole bunch of unemployed people lying around? Therefore, it stands to reason that economic downturns are actually a better rather than a worse time to hire people for government projects.

This last point, in addition to the fact that people like consistency as well as the observation that interest rates are often low during recessions (which addresses the crowding-out problem), implies that scenario 2 is logistically superior to scenario 1. Simply put, if a government has discretion over when to undertake some of its projects (repairing roads and building new roads and such, for example), doesn't it make sense, on multiple levels, to undertake these projects when people are otherwise unoccupied and the economy could use the help?

The government seems to abide by this principle on some level, since there is a decent chunk of spending that falls under the category of what are known as automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are government payments that go up in economic downturns and go down during economic booms without the government explicitly having to decide on such payments. Unemployment and welfare transfer payments are prime examples of automatic stabilizers, despite the fact that they weren't necessarily introduced for that purpose.

Before you get all ideologically upset, note that this discussion is only about the timing of government spending and not about the overall level of spending. Note also that deficit spending during a recession implies that the government has to run a surplus during good times in order to avoid running up a constantly increasing debt. From a political perspective, however, it's apparently pretty tough to commit to running surpluses in order to save up for the rainy day spending.

 

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10:01 AM on 09/08/2011
This chalkboard logic doesn't work in the real world. Have you ever applied your opinions outside of the classroom? Have you ever advised a board of directors to keep spending into oblivion because things will get better. Have you ever doubled down on your family debt after losing a job or taking a pay cut?

We don't need politicians and academics advising us on our future course of action. We need people with real world business experience who know how to manage through the peaks and valleys. And what they don't do is double down on stupidity to solve business problems.
05:24 PM on 08/06/2011
government would spend more in good times and less in bad times. unless of course you spend less in the good times so you can spend more in the bad times its called preparing for the future. Just like everybody should do.
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Jodi Beggs
08:53 PM on 08/07/2011
The interesting thing is that I initially thought that it didn't make sense for a family to spend more in bad times than in good times (why not just keep spending constant?), but actually it does since people have limited time. In that way, it's even efficient for families to take vacations and such when they are otherwise unemployed (assuming of course that they have saved up enough to do so responsibly) rather than when they have to take time away from being productive.
01:00 PM on 08/06/2011
I think that most of your argument is sound; it makes perfect sense that if the government is going to spend money then it should spend more of it in bad times than in good times. What you fail to recognize though, is that this is precisely what Congress is doing and precisely the purpose of the debt ceiling deal.

The CBO quoted that the savings of the budget cuts are going to be about 2.1$ trillion over the next 10 years, not over the next year. All of these cuts are very long term, and will only really effect us when this recession is over. You mentioned how it is hard to commit to running a surplus in good times. This is congress's way of doing so. It is precisely because we are in bad times that we are committing to long-term spending cuts right now. For political reasons, it seems to be easier to enact these long term cuts when the government debt problems are present and apparent. Also, I would like to note that the S&P downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ because the long-term cuts (and absent revenue increases) didn't go far enough.

On a side note, are you going to be in the next American Economic Association humor session? I might be able to come to that.
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Jodi Beggs
06:44 PM on 08/06/2011
I don't fail to recognize it, but perhaps I didn't make it clear in the article. I am, however, a bit skeptical that future cuts that the government has committed to don't hinder a recovery in the present. In other words, the government is basically saying "we're not going to take away your jobs and entitlements until a few years down the road, so go about your normal business today" and expecting it to work. I would be more confident that such a plan would work if the government committed to enacting the spending cuts when some economic recovery benchmark was triggered.
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Jodi Beggs
06:45 PM on 08/06/2011
Oh, and probably on the AEA thing. At the very least, I will be giving a talk and participating in a panel discussion while I'm there. :)
GHarry
Kitty wrangler
09:14 AM on 08/06/2011
I'm not sure what Beggs is advocating, if anything, but one thing is clear: The Obama administration needs to start hiring large numbers of people immediately through a new WPA program or Civilian Conservation Corps, just as FDR did several decades ago. The public needs money to spend and much of its savings are evaporating on Wall Street. The artifical stimulus of public employment will kick-start the economy and revitalize the private sector. In the meantime, sensible spending cuts and new taxes on the rich -- such as removing the ridiculous $106K cap on income taxable under Social Security -- would bring the national debt under control. But here's a bet: Congress will do none of these things, because both parties are heavily influenced by Wall Street and the rich. That's our real predicament.
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Jodi Beggs
12:24 PM on 08/06/2011
I suppose I'm advocating against the concept of "we need austerity now and we'll go back to spending when times are good." Congress seems to understand, to some degree, that this is a bad idea, but it's still hard to generate confidence in the economy when the government is talking about how it's going to cut spending and put people out of work and such at some defined point in the future.