Did McCain Help Bait Russia into Georgia?
Now that the dust is settling the big question about the dust-up in Georgia remains: Why was Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili so stupid to start this war?
There are a couple of theories. One is Saakashvili was under the mistaken impression the US military, even NATO, would intervene if Russia fought back after Georgia entered the breakaway province of South Ossetia on 7-8 August, devastating Tskhinvali, and according to Moscow, killing a number of Russian peacekeepers.
The US stood on the sidelines when Russia indeed punished Georgia. Georgian civilians at first told Western reporters they were angry at America for not coming to their aid. Then several days later many started to blame Saakashvili for creating such a mess.
It seems hard to imagine he would have tried to seize South Ossetia if he were not led to believe he had American backing. According to Vitaly Churkin, Russia's UN ambassador, joint US-Georgian military exercises code-named Immediate Response ended just hours before Georgian troops moved into the province.
Churkin says the Americans gave Saakashvili a "green light." But there was no immediate response from the United States.
It looks like Saakashvili and Russia were both set up.
By eliciting a heavy-handed Russian response, American political leaders, and their mouthpieces in the corporate media, can blame Russia and revive misplaced Cold War analogies. They falsely portray Russia as the brutal aggressor, bent on violently overthrowing the Georgian regime, with Ukraine and others to follow.
Condoleezza Rice called Russia's intervention the new 1968 Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Barack Obama's chief foreign policy adviser, compared it to the Soviet invasion of Finland. Right wing radio hosts are rabid about the new Russian "threat." The New York Times writes about Russia's supposed challenge to democracies.
Who benefits most from painting this a revival of Soviet-era aggression?
John McCain.
The Georgian crisis has created a campaign issue McCain can run on. McCain's best chance to win, unless Obama self-destructs, is to portray himself as the Cold War-era war hero ready to do battle again against our old Cold War adversary. McCain is yesterday's man, so revive yesterday's "threat." He stood up to Russia while his opponent was out fishing in Hawaii.
A compliant media will keep the phony Russian threat an issue throughout the campaign. It could even raise Condi Rice's vice presidential fortunes, as her only expertise was the former Soviet Union. The original Cold War was based on manufactured threats. The new trumped up threats about Russia will make Condi's experience "relevant" again. They can both run on Russia.
So did the Bush administration provoke Moscow to help elect McCain and keep neo-conservative foreign policy alive? Was McCain himself involved in setting this Russian bear trap?
On April 17, the Washington Post reports, he had a telephone conversation with Saakashvili, set up by McCain's chief foreign policy adviser, neocon Randy Scheunemann, who at the time was still being paid by his friend Saakashvili as a registered foreign agent for Georgia.
After the conversation, McCain issued a statement, written by Scheunemann, in which he warned Russia over Georgian sovereignty in South Ossetia. Later that day, Scheunemann's Orion Strategies lobbying firm signed a new $200,000 deal with Georgia: all in a day's work.
Scheunemann is a leading neo-conservative lobbyist for oil companies and arms manufacturers who has enriched himself and his clients by pushing for war, notably in Iraq. He has been an important player in Georgia, where the United States has poured hundreds of millions of dollars in aid and military hardware, mostly to protect the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that bypasses Russia and Iran on its way to Turkey.
The US has more than a hundred military advisers in the country and US Special Forces have trained the Georgian military. The Bush administration and Scheunemann were championing Georgia's bid to join NATO. The administration has angered Russia by becoming so heavily involved in Moscow's backyard in competition for pipeline routes. This rivalry will grow fiercer as recoverable oil becomes scarcer.
American officials say they privately told Saakashvili not to provoke Russia. Rice was in Tbilisi last month and supposedly told Saakashvili not to start a war. But as The New York Times reported: "Ms. Rice's ...visit to Tbilisi demonstrates the accumulation of years of mixed messages may have made the American warnings fall on deaf ears. The United States took a series of steps that emboldened Georgia: sending advisers to build up the Georgian military, including an exercise last month with more than 1,000 American troops; pressing hard to bring Georgia into the NATO orbit; ... and loudly proclaiming its support for Georgia's territorial integrity in the battle with Russia over Georgia's separatist enclaves."
Its not surprising Saakashvili was convinced the U.S. would come to his aid, the way Hungarian rebels believed the U.S. would in 1956.
Scheunemann organized McCann's two trips to Georgia and set up that phone call. McCain refers to the Georgian president as "my friend Misha" and phoned him several times a day during the crisis. Did Scheunemann and McCain contribute to Saakashvili's impression that the US would come to his rescue?
We may never know the answer to that question. But we can be certain that the phony "resurgent Russian threat" narrative, if the electorate buys it, could propel John McCain into the White House, unless it is exposed as the ploy it seems to be.
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Why, exactly, did the Georgian president, in his video plea for aid, single out Sen. McCain? Why has this not been addressed by the media?
Are you suggesting Bush or McCain had anything to do with Russian provocation? That's like suggesting we encouraged Saddam to invade KUWAIT, how absurd!
McCain Is More Dangerous Than Bush
- Bill Boyarsky (Aug 15, 2008)
The brief, bloody Georgia war provided another example of John McCain’s reckless views on foreign policy...H
President Bush talks to the Russians. McCain seems to long for the Iron Curtain days of those long decades of conflict with plenty of brinkmanship, saber rattling and possibly a trip to the edge of war.
Bush chatted with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during the Olympics..
And whereas Bush said that when he looked Putin “in the eye,” “I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy” and “I was able to get a sense of his soul,” McCain said, “I looked into his eyes and saw three letters, a K, a G and a B.”
...McCain’
http://www
The US and Israel have been selling/supplying and training Georgia in the use of up to date military weapons and tactics for years. Beginning sometime after July 18th, Georgia and over 1,000 US marines spent TWO WEEKS in military exercises, called "Immediate Response 2008". (See Pepe Escobar at Real News) How could the MSM have failed to note these military exercises, which ended just before the invasion?
Yet, the US claims it was surprised when, after declaring a "truce" with Ossetia following days of tit for tat skirmises, Georgia launched a violent night time assault on Ossetia's capital, using its new US/Israeli "toys." The US didn't know of this? Impossible.
Georgia got its "immediate response," which was to get its ass kicked. Russia is now removing or destroying Georgia's fancy new weapons, and no doubt gathering useful intelligence from military bases in Georgia. Truce or no, Russia will not end these activities until it has disarmed Georgia, and gathered information on US/Israeli meddling in the Caucasus.
Georgia believed the US would come to its rescue. Both Georgia are led by reckless fools. Bush has not given up on military solutions to political problems. He green-lighted Israel's hugely disproportionate attack on Lebanon, and supported a plot to overthrow Hamas using Fatah fighters, two other, similarly disasterous adventures.
In 11/06, Ossetians voted 90+ percent to join with North Ossetia, which sounds something like the"democracy" and "self determination" we ought to recognize, as in Kosovo.
McCain *hasn't even been elected* and he's already piling up bodies.
This is all Republicans know - greed and war.
It's common knowledge that Reagan's team stoked the Iranian hostage crisis during his campaign and made some behind-the-scenes deals. The corporate media looked away and now it's probably accepted practice, McCain is desperate and I imagine nothing is out of bounds for the GOP.
Republicans are the name, Treason is the game.
Let us not forget that our favorite scoundrel, Karl Rove went to Crimea ( Yalta ) just last month ignoring
a supoena to appear before the House Judiciary Committee.
http://not
[insert]Karl Rove participated in a meeting at Yalta in the Crimea, at the place where Stalin, Churchill and FDR carved up the World in 1945. The Crimea is now part of Ukraine.
The weekend event, held at the Livadia Palace, was the 5th annual YES (Yalta European Strategy) conference. Mr. Rove was a panelist on a Saturday morning plenary session: Elections in Russia and the USA: impact on Ukraine and Europe. The panel, chaired by Richard Haas, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, also included veteran Democratic speechwriter Bob Shrum.[ins
this is a really good article... thank you... my only point is that if this is true:"American officials say they privately told Saakashvili not to provoke Russia. Rice was in Tbilisi last month and supposedly told Saakashvili not to start a war"., than you would think that the state dept. would be in an uproar about this loose cannon georgian president. the idea that condi didn´t know about this invasion is rediculous
With McCain impugning Obama's loyalty at the VFW convention, this issue needs to be fully aired out. Under McCain will various tales be wagging the dog? Meanwhile, his statement "I know how to win wars" should be of concern to any reasonable person and reveals his dangerousness. He also seems singularly unconcerned by the eonflict of interest which could result in a nuclear crisis with Russia.
We also have to question his lack of credibility as a result of the inferences which the posting correctly draws. This could also have a knock-on economic effect as the world community acts to defend itself by weakening the potential source of instability the US regime would present under McCain's rule. If he wins, we will face the unappetising prospect of a race between bankruptcy and armageddon. Both may result.
i thought the 'war before the election' was gonna be with iran.how convenient that it happened somewhere else where america was not really paying attention.
good article.i'
Joe, I did a commentary on your article, which I found pretty startling as well as insightful, and posted it to Daily Kos. I wanted to make sure I checked-in and gave you the credit. What appears really impressive is that on the poll at the end of the editorial, as of now fully 60% of those responding are buying into your thesis.
Whether it proves true or not, it a beguilingly serious indication of the loss of trust and the cynicism the Bush Presidency has inspired.
When you consider the historical background on the political and economic underpinnings of the Cold War provided through investigative analysis in your book, co-written with Mike Gravel and referenced in your article, it all makes perfect sense, even if speculative (for now).
http://www
The stuff you write about here is well within the nature and means of neocons who seem desperate now to hang onto power and their grandiose PNAC. Unfortunately, as we say in Texas, they have a dying horse by the tail and it's dragging them to death. Let's pray they don't take us down with them.
Thanks for you inspired efforts and may God save the republic.
See Joe Lauria's Profile
Hi,
I've read your commentary. If you'd like to get in touch to discuss please do so through the Political Odyssey website, www.politi
thanks,
Joe
Let's not confuse "U.S. backing" with "military support." Georgia DID have "U.S. backing," as evidenced by Bush/Rice's statements after the conflict broke out. "Military support" is different.
Unless he is stupid, I doubt that Saakashvili thought the U.S. would intervene militarily. Georgia is not a member of NATO and is too insignificant to U.S. interests to justify military intervention, especially when the U.S. is currently involved in two other military conflicts.
I doubt Saakashvili relied upon alleged U.S. promises. Why would Saakashvili rely upon McCain when McCain is not the President and may never be President? I doubt the White House promised full military support but, even if they had, why would Saakashvili risk going to war with Russia based upon the promise of an administration that is going to be out of office in five months?
Maybe Saakashvili went into South Ossetia because he thought (despite possibly heavy casualties) it would be a win-win situation, i.e., if Georgia wins, that's great; if Georgia gets pounded, the world will support Georgia in the conflict and Georgia will get into NATO.
I support trying to find out what was said to Georgia in recent months, but let's not jump to conclusions. It is reprehensible and irresponsible to accuse McCain or the White House of masterminding this tragic series of events (purportedly just to assist McCain in the election) until and unless more evidence is discovered to support such an accusation.
McCain's foreign adviser was a Lobbyist to Georgia! McBush has told us thousand of lies. These crooks a guilty until proven innocent.
Nixon made a deal with the North Vietnamese to get them to walk out of the Paris peace talks in 1968 in order to influence the election in his favor. It worked. Reagan made a deal with the Iranians to hold all of the American hostages until after the election in 1980 to sway the electorate in his direction. It worked.
As a result, it has become standard operating procedure for Republicans to make deals with foreign governments to influence elections. The Georgian exercise may have been set up, as suggested, but there are still more foreign policy debacles in the works, and Iran still looks like the "game changer" the Republicans are hoping for. When Israeli and American bombs start falling on Iranian nuclear sites, bellicosity will rule the day and the platform advocating diplomatic engagement with our adversaries will be swept aside in the predictable swell of jingoistic fervor.
When the sitting administration is willing to start wars and kill people to force a particular electoral result, and the sitting Congress works in collusion with that criminal administration, there is little hope for a fair election. Add to that the eight-year efforts of a politicized Department of Justice dedicated to voter caging, discrimination, ballot-box tampering, and general disenfranchisement of all non-Republicans, and it begins to be difficult to picture any other outcome than a McCain victory, regardless of how anyone votes.
Thank you Joe for clearly stating what most Americans need to know......
With friends like Randy Scheunemann, Jon McCain and George Bush, ... Saaskashvili would do well to have a lunch with the new Russian President soon! It is not simply plausible that he was goaded into striking in Ossetia, ... it seems likely, IMHO.
This "Bring it on" bravado is dangerous in a world on edge as the region is on Russian borders these days. The promise of anti-missile defenses to Poland was provocative and ill-timed in the midst of the conflict. That Condi does such a great job at diplomacy!
It really is time we put adults in charge in Washington, rather than old men and women who either have forgotten or never knew the price of war. Up to 2000 dead in Georgia for what? An election year prank???
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