Did McCain Help Bait Russia into Georgia?

Now that the dust is settling the big question about the dust-up in Georgia remains: Why was Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili so stupid to start this war?

There are a couple of theories. One is Saakashvili was under the mistaken impression the US military, even NATO, would intervene if Russia fought back after Georgia entered the breakaway province of South Ossetia on 7-8 August, devastating Tskhinvali, and according to Moscow, killing a number of Russian peacekeepers.

The US stood on the sidelines when Russia indeed punished Georgia. Georgian civilians at first told Western reporters they were angry at America for not coming to their aid. Then several days later many started to blame Saakashvili for creating such a mess.

It seems hard to imagine he would have tried to seize South Ossetia if he were not led to believe he had American backing. According to Vitaly Churkin, Russia's UN ambassador, joint US-Georgian military exercises code-named Immediate Response ended just hours before Georgian troops moved into the province.

Churkin says the Americans gave Saakashvili a "green light." But there was no immediate response from the United States.

It looks like Saakashvili and Russia were both set up.

By eliciting a heavy-handed Russian response, American political leaders, and their mouthpieces in the corporate media, can blame Russia and revive misplaced Cold War analogies. They falsely portray Russia as the brutal aggressor, bent on violently overthrowing the Georgian regime, with Ukraine and others to follow.

Condoleezza Rice called Russia's intervention the new 1968 Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Barack Obama's chief foreign policy adviser, compared it to the Soviet invasion of Finland. Right wing radio hosts are rabid about the new Russian "threat." The New York Times writes about Russia's supposed challenge to democracies.

Who benefits most from painting this a revival of Soviet-era aggression?

John McCain.

The Georgian crisis has created a campaign issue McCain can run on. McCain's best chance to win, unless Obama self-destructs, is to portray himself as the Cold War-era war hero ready to do battle again against our old Cold War adversary. McCain is yesterday's man, so revive yesterday's "threat." He stood up to Russia while his opponent was out fishing in Hawaii.

A compliant media will keep the phony Russian threat an issue throughout the campaign. It could even raise Condi Rice's vice presidential fortunes, as her only expertise was the former Soviet Union. The original Cold War was based on manufactured threats. The new trumped up threats about Russia will make Condi's experience "relevant" again. They can both run on Russia.

So did the Bush administration provoke Moscow to help elect McCain and keep neo-conservative foreign policy alive? Was McCain himself involved in setting this Russian bear trap?

On April 17, the Washington Post reports, he had a telephone conversation with Saakashvili, set up by McCain's chief foreign policy adviser, neocon Randy Scheunemann, who at the time was still being paid by his friend Saakashvili as a registered foreign agent for Georgia.

After the conversation, McCain issued a statement, written by Scheunemann, in which he warned Russia over Georgian sovereignty in South Ossetia. Later that day, Scheunemann's Orion Strategies lobbying firm signed a new $200,000 deal with Georgia: all in a day's work.

Scheunemann is a leading neo-conservative lobbyist for oil companies and arms manufacturers who has enriched himself and his clients by pushing for war, notably in Iraq. He has been an important player in Georgia, where the United States has poured hundreds of millions of dollars in aid and military hardware, mostly to protect the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that bypasses Russia and Iran on its way to Turkey.

The US has more than a hundred military advisers in the country and US Special Forces have trained the Georgian military. The Bush administration and Scheunemann were championing Georgia's bid to join NATO. The administration has angered Russia by becoming so heavily involved in Moscow's backyard in competition for pipeline routes. This rivalry will grow fiercer as recoverable oil becomes scarcer.

American officials say they privately told Saakashvili not to provoke Russia. Rice was in Tbilisi last month and supposedly told Saakashvili not to start a war. But as The New York Times reported: "Ms. Rice's ...visit to Tbilisi demonstrates the accumulation of years of mixed messages may have made the American warnings fall on deaf ears. The United States took a series of steps that emboldened Georgia: sending advisers to build up the Georgian military, including an exercise last month with more than 1,000 American troops; pressing hard to bring Georgia into the NATO orbit; ... and loudly proclaiming its support for Georgia's territorial integrity in the battle with Russia over Georgia's separatist enclaves."

Its not surprising Saakashvili was convinced the U.S. would come to his aid, the way Hungarian rebels believed the U.S. would in 1956.

Scheunemann organized McCann's two trips to Georgia and set up that phone call. McCain refers to the Georgian president as "my friend Misha" and phoned him several times a day during the crisis. Did Scheunemann and McCain contribute to Saakashvili's impression that the US would come to his rescue?

We may never know the answer to that question. But we can be certain that the phony "resurgent Russian threat" narrative, if the electorate buys it, could propel John McCain into the White House, unless it is exposed as the ploy it seems to be.

www.politicalodyssey.com

Comments

[MatthewMaly]

1. Georgia is under complete military and political control of the US, even a thought that Georgia would attack Russia without US prompting is unconceivable. 2. As a social psychologist, I am awed by the technologies that were used to actually make this attack happen. Russians and Georgians are brothers; these nations love each other and loved for centuries. Would not you be suprized if Texans were to attack Arizona and massacred Tucson? Also, it is hard to make an army attack an adversary that is 50 times larger. 3. The media campaign is a solid proof that there was an order as to how this story must be reported. Therefore, I think it is OBVIOUS that this is a premeditated provocation from the White House to help McCain by presenting Russia as "hostile" and then emphasizing McCain's hawkishess. An impeachable offense.

[MSiddique]

I have seen speculation that Karl Rove met with Sakashvili when he was in that part of the world giving a 'speech' of some kind: is that true? And I understand Scheunemann used to work for Rove? Too much of a coincidence, me thinks!

[Daly]

Don't forget to consider the McCain Lobbyist connection with Georgia

[Michale32086]

@Herrington

}}}}}}}}}}}}}
And since the U.S. has no credible military reserve at this point, I think sabre rattling by McCain was considered more of a joke by the Russian leadership than a threat.
{{{{{{{{{{{{

Yer kidding, right??

The ONLY area that the US is thin on is boots on the ground. Our air and sea assets are barely being utilized in Iraq or Afghanistan.

As for the sabre rattling being a joke?? It sure got Russia to sign that cease-fire fast enough.

Let me ask you something.

Why do YOU think Russia went into Georgia?

Michale...­.

[randyjet]

The rather obvious reason that Russia went into Georgia was to protect their citizens in the two provinces after they had been hit with a sneak attack on them. When you start a war with somebody, you don't get to say when it ends. Just ask Mexico, Japan, and Germany. Think the US was wrong for taking Mexico City after the Mexicans only attacked the US forces in Brownsville? Or how about Japan. Think the US should have only destroyed the Japanese Navy and called it quits?

As for the fantasy of the US being able to defeat Russian forces on their own turf, it only shows the same meglomania that another idiot, Hitler, tried. Remember what happened to him? The Russian Air Force is a very potent force now, and the Russians have enough missiles to destroy the US Navy in the Black Sea. Only an idiot would hazard US carriers in such restricted waters like the Black Sea.

The Russians signed the agreement because it was in their own interests on a large stage. The predictions that Russia was going to take over all of Georgia were flat out WRONG too. So far the neo cons are FAR off being accurate about everything so far.

[antirepublocrat]

Uh, what "sea assets" do we have in the Black Sea? To get there, you have to pass through the Bosporus and Dardanelles, Turkish territorial waters. My understanding is the Turks have said, "No pasaran." They have no desire to see their neighborhood blown up.

[JenMI]

Maybe the National Enquirer should look in to this.

[qwr]

There is something unseemly about a small country asking for protection from another country on the other side of the world, when we all know that this "protection" could lead to WWIII. The current regime of Georgia is on a plan to militarize, and they did, after all, send 2,000 troops to Iraq, an illegal war. They have also cracked down on dissent. I don't see much about Georgia to like, although I certainly don't think Russia is better. Georgia is much better off having closer ties with countries like Ukraine. That is real solidarity, not this NATO BS. Having Ukraine and Georgia join NATO is a sure path to a return of the cold war. We don't want that now, do we? I think Cheney, Bush, and Condi might want that. Let's not give it to them.

[mosh]

It's all about the oil pipelines which Russia took an opportunity to bomb while defending South Ossetia from Georgian incursions.

It's about who has access to the oil and Caspian Sea and, in order to protect those pipelines the US needs to set up a base in Georgia and, better yet, in South Ossetia.

So, like Iraq, people are dying because the United States wants to control the world's oil spigots. This has nothing to do with democracy or freedom unless you define freedom as being free of Russia's hold on the oil and pipelines in that region.

[watchTVgetSTUPID]

The NYT reported McCain gave the Georgians encouragement to attack Russians shortly before the attack. McCain ruined the administration's message of caution to Georgia by his bellecose meddling. See NYT excerpt below:

Senator John McCain, whose campaign foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, had represented Georgia as a lobbyist, was the first to blast Russia. Mr. McCain, who already was the Republicans’ presumptive presidential nominee, telephoned Mr. Saakashvili to offer support, and then told reporters on April 17 that “we must not allow Russia to believe it has a free hand to engage in policies that undermine Georgian sovereignt­y.”

[jsan34]

this whole Georgia and Russian story and Mcain's response to it is a direct result of bush's incompetent foreign policy or lack thereof. You set up missiles in Poland close to russia. You pump up
the president of georgia to invade an independent province then you turn your back on Georgia knowing full well that we are tied up in Iraq and afganistan with a stretched out military incapable right now of deploying to Georgia or anywhere else. why doesn't Mcain get it? Because of his inability to gather the facts and see the whole picture or he probably is taking instructions from the white house idiots who are interested in oil pipelines.

[mosh]

Our incompetent foreign policy is really the result of an incompetent, corrupt energy policy which is dictated by big oil.

Otherwise, why do any of this - arm Georgia and goad them into provoking Russia??

The US is there to ensure that the oil pipelines running in that region are not controlled by Russia. That's why the US is there.

How many more of our troops have to die for oil? How many more civilians will be killed so we can get our hands on the oil?

[YesWeCanada]

The USA pushed NATO to accept Georgia.
Europe was nervous about angering the bear.
A standard condition for NATO membership is that there are no unresolved border issues.
Georgia attacked South Ossetia in the dead of night.
If they were successful the unresolved border issues would no longer be an impediment.
If they were unsuccessful, a case could be made that they needed NATO membership to dissuade Russia from beating up on poor little Georgia.

NATO protection is key to securing the pipeline through Georgia in terms of investment and preventing a response from Russia.
Rest assured that the neo-cons are gaming both the Bush and McBush camps. These people are all about oil, arms sales, power, influence and corrupt government(s).

[mosh]

Right on point. War is always about resources and this war is no different. It is not about defending democracy or freedom, in fact, war is antithetical to democracy and freedom.

McBush is no patriot. He is a neoconservative hawk who surrounds himself with armchair murderers like Randy Shaunenman and Phil Graham. Killing people directly or indirectly for personal gain. As far as I am concerned, McBush has sold whatever soul he had left to corporate interests. God help us.

[genoasail]

No, McCain didn't. Randy Scheunemann however, quite likely did.

I am certain that he kept McCain completely out of it for reasons of plausible deniability, but make no mistake, Randy Scheunemann, the paid Washington lobbyist for Georgia until just a few months ago, was key in this conflict, key in making Saaskashvili believe that the US would have his back, and create a little demi-stage for his other client, John McCain, to flex his phony foreign policy credentials.

This wasn't about helping Georgia, which attack innocent South Ossetians in the first place, provoking Russia. This was about helping John McCain look Pesidential instead of doddering. Unfortunately, all this did was make McCain look like he wants war EVERYWHERE, and what to us engage in a new Cold War. Yeah, like THAT is going to be a great strategy in the Global War on Terror.

[watchTVgetSTUPID]

NYT reported McCain gave the Georgians encouragement to attack Russians shortly before the attack. See NYT excerpt below:

Senator John McCain, whose campaign foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, had represented Georgia as a lobbyist, was the first to blast Russia. Mr. McCain, who already was the Republicans’ presumptive presidential nominee, telephoned Mr. Saakashvili to offer support, and then told reporters on April 17 that “we must not allow Russia to believe it has a free hand to engage in policies that undermine Georgian sovereignt­y.”

[mosh]

The war on terror isn't going very well, is it? Time to start a new war with new players - certainly it will take a majority of the American people months if not years to catch on to the new lies being perpetrated by McBush, et al and aided by the msm. By the time the American people wake up, McBush will be president.

Obama needs to push back hard and harder on this issue and expose it for what it is - a deadly shell game.

[SSF]

Imagine if the situation were reversed and the U.S. had come out the loser in the Cold War. Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean nations join the Warsaw Pact and Soviet arms and military advisors start pouring into the Western Hemisphere. After all this, the Cubans launch an attack on our base at Guantanamo Bay and kill soldiers and civilians. How do you think the U.S. Government would respond? Would we restrict the fighting to the Guantanamo territory or would our response be "disproportionate" to the point that the U.S. Military would turn the island of Cuba into a great big hole on the bottom of the ocean? When armies are attacked, they respond with all force necessary to end the threat they face. Castro understood this and, unlike Saakashvili, never made so stupid a move!

[lovethesinner]

"...did the Bush administration provoke Moscow to help elect McCain and keep neo-conservative foreign policy alive?"

Of course, Joe. The thing that proves it is... no one is talking about it. If there was a real FREE PRESS in America, this would have been the first question on everyone's mind and the one that would have sold the most papers, ad time, etc.

The fact that no single American MSM outlet is asking this question proves your point.

Oh, and thanks for being the only one.

[mosh]

DemocracyNow is a great alternative news source. You should check out their website. I believe they are broadcast on Link TV Channel 376.

[Brillig]

I really hope that our conjectures are incorrect and that PRO-LIFE McCain really did NOT encourage the genocide of 2000 South Ossetians to provoke Russia, and be the big hero!

[mosh]

Hmmmmmmm . . . . the man who joked about bomb, bomb, bombing Iran? That guy? Nah.

[watchTVgetSTUPID]

McCain is in bed with some sordid characters. The Georgian leader attacked S Ossetia in a blitzkrieg style and killed a thousand civilians in one day. He started with a heavy artillary barrage on the city followed by a tank overrun. This was the classic WWII technique and not surprising it had the classic results on the civilian population.

[closerthanuthink]

Recently someone over here at Huffpost (forgive me but I can't remember the contributors name!) issued a warning: Beware the October surprise!!! I'll add another one: Beware the crazies like a monkies like foxes!!! As soon as the news of the "warnings not to provoke Russia" while engaging in military exercises, with American troops and advisors, and all this in GEORGIA, one of McCain's chief foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemanns' current employers, started surfacing.­...could it be any clearer? And then one or two days after the "invasion" and "violation" of Georgias territorial integrity I actually saw a pundit on CNN stating how this had and has been an opportunity for McCain to display his "SUPERB", thats right, "SUPERB" foreign policy credentials!!! "Bomb bomb Iran"?"We are all GEORGIANS!"? Please. Unfortunately it seems Mr. Lauria beleives the Russians where conned too....no way, they just couldn't be bothered, and rightly so - didn't ANYONE see Gorbechav begging Americans to THINK on Larry King Live? So wow, look Ma, now we,ve got a missile system in Poland; the Russians are probably going to form some kind of alliance with Iran (maybe even Syria), and didn't I just read about a two stage missile test in Iran, so we gonna need more weapons, cover of "TIME" - the New Cold War(!), arms race, BIG BUCKS for the smart!! Remember when we never trusted anyone over 30? Well shouldn't that be 60 now? WAKE UP!!!

[watchTVgetSTUPID]

Only this time we can't afford the cold war... unless China is willing to finance it. And I seriously doubt China will let us take control of all the Mid east oil. They need it for themselves and their allies.

[closerthanuthink]

Damn Right! Russia's loaded with cash and resources, grown "big ones" (fact is they never lost them), is (and always was no matter Putins "dreamy" eyes) a player; Chinas loaded, got America by the short and curlies, dabbling around in Africa (Oil, always oil), believes it's rightful place is between heaven and us (the rest of the world) and is patient - really patient - a player. America - trillions in debt, no moral basis for complaining about Soviet style invasions (Huh??), government and leaders with practically obscene ties to the military-industrial complex (who just "LOVE" a war), no "carrots", only a bunch of ICBM "sticks" (do people honestly beleive McCains the man to be weilding them?)...t­he sucker at the table with a temper and a gun in his waistband, who thinks this is checkers when its chess (way to go Condi - Soviet EXPERT!!!)! And to think the WHOLE WORLD rallied behind the U.S after 9-11!! What a difference a term makes! Sad!

[JDWPS]

This is what we considered as a very real possibility, if not probability, immediately.
We were very hopeful someone would investigate the situation because it seemed too suspicious and unacceptable to be ignored.
Thanks for posting this!