Did McCain Help Bait Russia into Georgia?

Now that the dust is settling the big question about the dust-up in Georgia remains: Why was Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili so stupid to start this war?

There are a couple of theories. One is Saakashvili was under the mistaken impression the US military, even NATO, would intervene if Russia fought back after Georgia entered the breakaway province of South Ossetia on 7-8 August, devastating Tskhinvali, and according to Moscow, killing a number of Russian peacekeepers.

The US stood on the sidelines when Russia indeed punished Georgia. Georgian civilians at first told Western reporters they were angry at America for not coming to their aid. Then several days later many started to blame Saakashvili for creating such a mess.

It seems hard to imagine he would have tried to seize South Ossetia if he were not led to believe he had American backing. According to Vitaly Churkin, Russia's UN ambassador, joint US-Georgian military exercises code-named Immediate Response ended just hours before Georgian troops moved into the province.

Churkin says the Americans gave Saakashvili a "green light." But there was no immediate response from the United States.

It looks like Saakashvili and Russia were both set up.

By eliciting a heavy-handed Russian response, American political leaders, and their mouthpieces in the corporate media, can blame Russia and revive misplaced Cold War analogies. They falsely portray Russia as the brutal aggressor, bent on violently overthrowing the Georgian regime, with Ukraine and others to follow.

Condoleezza Rice called Russia's intervention the new 1968 Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Barack Obama's chief foreign policy adviser, compared it to the Soviet invasion of Finland. Right wing radio hosts are rabid about the new Russian "threat." The New York Times writes about Russia's supposed challenge to democracies.

Who benefits most from painting this a revival of Soviet-era aggression?

John McCain.

The Georgian crisis has created a campaign issue McCain can run on. McCain's best chance to win, unless Obama self-destructs, is to portray himself as the Cold War-era war hero ready to do battle again against our old Cold War adversary. McCain is yesterday's man, so revive yesterday's "threat." He stood up to Russia while his opponent was out fishing in Hawaii.

A compliant media will keep the phony Russian threat an issue throughout the campaign. It could even raise Condi Rice's vice presidential fortunes, as her only expertise was the former Soviet Union. The original Cold War was based on manufactured threats. The new trumped up threats about Russia will make Condi's experience "relevant" again. They can both run on Russia.

So did the Bush administration provoke Moscow to help elect McCain and keep neo-conservative foreign policy alive? Was McCain himself involved in setting this Russian bear trap?

On April 17, the Washington Post reports, he had a telephone conversation with Saakashvili, set up by McCain's chief foreign policy adviser, neocon Randy Scheunemann, who at the time was still being paid by his friend Saakashvili as a registered foreign agent for Georgia.

After the conversation, McCain issued a statement, written by Scheunemann, in which he warned Russia over Georgian sovereignty in South Ossetia. Later that day, Scheunemann's Orion Strategies lobbying firm signed a new $200,000 deal with Georgia: all in a day's work.

Scheunemann is a leading neo-conservative lobbyist for oil companies and arms manufacturers who has enriched himself and his clients by pushing for war, notably in Iraq. He has been an important player in Georgia, where the United States has poured hundreds of millions of dollars in aid and military hardware, mostly to protect the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that bypasses Russia and Iran on its way to Turkey.

The US has more than a hundred military advisers in the country and US Special Forces have trained the Georgian military. The Bush administration and Scheunemann were championing Georgia's bid to join NATO. The administration has angered Russia by becoming so heavily involved in Moscow's backyard in competition for pipeline routes. This rivalry will grow fiercer as recoverable oil becomes scarcer.

American officials say they privately told Saakashvili not to provoke Russia. Rice was in Tbilisi last month and supposedly told Saakashvili not to start a war. But as The New York Times reported: "Ms. Rice's ...visit to Tbilisi demonstrates the accumulation of years of mixed messages may have made the American warnings fall on deaf ears. The United States took a series of steps that emboldened Georgia: sending advisers to build up the Georgian military, including an exercise last month with more than 1,000 American troops; pressing hard to bring Georgia into the NATO orbit; ... and loudly proclaiming its support for Georgia's territorial integrity in the battle with Russia over Georgia's separatist enclaves."

Its not surprising Saakashvili was convinced the U.S. would come to his aid, the way Hungarian rebels believed the U.S. would in 1956.

Scheunemann organized McCann's two trips to Georgia and set up that phone call. McCain refers to the Georgian president as "my friend Misha" and phoned him several times a day during the crisis. Did Scheunemann and McCain contribute to Saakashvili's impression that the US would come to his rescue?

We may never know the answer to that question. But we can be certain that the phony "resurgent Russian threat" narrative, if the electorate buys it, could propel John McCain into the White House, unless it is exposed as the ploy it seems to be.

www.politicalodyssey.com

Comments

[Atcha]

The problem with your theory is that McCain's response was too bellicose to benefit him and not even in tune with the White house reaction. You'd think they would at least have coordinated their statements if they had engineered the whole thing. Right now McCain is trying to correct his warmonger image by repeating that 'Reagan didn't fire a shot" to win the cold war

[research]

The media is still pushing the Russia attacked Georgia meme, versus the "Georgia attacked Ossetia" truth.

[Shiba Inu149]

Remember a few months back when one of McCains cronies said it would be a good thing for him if there were an international crisis?

Coincidence?

[renatam]

Can McCain be TRUSTED?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/18/us/politics/18mccain.html?pagewanted=print

Despite Assurances, McCain Wasn"t in a "Cone of Silence" - NYT.com - 8/18/08

[Fight4USA8]

Thank you for the link: I suspected McCain must have watched Obama’s Interview, after I listed his, so I e-mail this to David Gergen:

David Gergen "Along comes McCain, who not only has -- he doesn't like to talk about his religion very much. And then he talks about it openly (Gergen, McCain hardly talked about his religion, in fact he was uncomfortable with the few words he uttered).

"It's the candidate who can connect emotionally to Middle America who will have the big advantage going down the stretch." (Gergen, remember HRC cry in NH, you were saying then that she was connected, but later Americans saw a clear picture straight through that "emotion" lies, deceits and I'm entitled to it, moments).

Gergen said he realized "John McCain's going to be a much tougher opponent for Barack Obama in the debates than anybody ever might have imagined just a few weeks ago."

(Gergen, sorry, once a gaffe always a gaffe, I guess you have not been listening to what McCain has been saying for the past few months, from I have no clue about economics excuse, to mixing Shiites & Sunnis, the geographical location of Iraq/Iran/Afganistan, not knowing the existence of Czech Republic, and the list goes on.)

(Gergen, unless you have some kind of magic that you could train McCain from economics, politics to geography over night or even months, then you could not say), "John McCain's going to be a much tougher opponent."

[naschkatze]

Thank you, thank you. This is what my husband and I think. If it could be exposed, it would utterly ruin McCain's chances.

[renatam]

That's why everyone and their mother are RUSHING over to Georgia -- to keep the President of Georgia QUIET.

Former President Gorbechav was begging Americans to THINK -- and challenged our Government SPIN -- on Larry King Live last week.

[athenasword]

This is quite plausible and the question is: WHO would expose it? What MSM outlet would give this story of a fabricated crisis a voice?

[renatam]

The MSM won't even cover a Presidential Candidate's indiscretions, leveraging Campaign funds and a coverup. We have to wait for The National Enquirer. NYC-media get their info/directives from PR firms such as Mark Penn's. No more investigative Journalism out of MSM. The Press has Constitutional protections -- to cover THE OLYMPICS on several channels, round the clock.

An International CRISIS our Government may have helped provoke -- is unworthy. Ditto, the coverup for John Edwards -- while he was Campaigning and taking in dollars from Americans.

[S1m0n]

"American officials say they privately told Saakashvili not to provoke Russia. Rice was in Tbilisi last month and supposedly told Saakashvili not to start a war."

It's a pity there's no way to corroborate this independently; no matter what was actually said; State would be saying the same thing now.

[research]

Here's what happened: for the shock doctrine loving BushCo war profiteers, chaos, conflict and war are all money makers. They also allow more fascism to be imposed on the frightened public.

So the US wanted to sell snake oil missiles to Poland. McCain's foreign adviser took money from the Georgian government then turned around and convinced them that Ossetia was theirs and they should take it back now! the Israelis sold them weapons, and the USA trained them just weeks before. The Russians, seeing the war game training, were prepared to support the Ossetia requested Russian peacekeepers as a result. The Georgians planned this attack for the Olympics start. Ossetia has been fighting against the Georgian takeover since the breakup of the USSR. Georgia had just agreed to a cease fire, after the claimed Ossetian breakaway group attacks.

In this context, The Georgians claims of "rebel factions attacking" are bogus.

The Russians, tired of the attacks and eager to squash a blatant USA client state land grab, demolished Georgian military capability.

This scared the Polish government into agreeing to install the snake oil US missiles that don't work.

War profiteering mission accomplished.

[SEQUOIABISON]

Brilliant analysis of what is really going on behind the scenes regarding this conflict between Russia and Georgia.

It definitely has a ring of truth to it, I am sure you are right that Bush and Rice instigated Georgia to move into South Ossetia and underestimated the reaction to this incursion, the same way they misjudged the insurgent reaction in Iraq.

McCain loves to quote his hero Ronald Reagan and frequently tells his audience how the Gipper single handedly brought down the Soviet Empire without firing a shot.

He neglects to say that Russia is not and has never been neutered or militarily impotent, they still have the Doctor Strangelove Nuclear capability of destroying every living thing on the planet. And most of their ICBM’s are still aimed at the USA.

McCain is surrounded by Cheney type neocons that still hate Russia and would rather have them subservient to dominant US forces, than to deal with them diplomatically.

We arrogantly tout ourselves as the most powerful nation in the world at every opportunity, the only real super power.

McCain’s type of thinking is anachronistic and goes back to the McCarthy era and will only get us into a war with a country that truly has WMD and the capability of delivering them anywhere in the world.

Obama/Clark

[luvienne]

Mccain and his advisers should be investigated. Money. Greedy for the love of money. The rich get richer, the poorer get poorer. Wake up America.

[peloton]

Georgia and Russia were set up by McCain and the Bush Administration. It was Georgia who was the initial aggressor, not Russia. And Georgia would not be so stupid to move forward unless they were given a signal. And evidence of a signal points right to McCain and his high paid Georgian lobbyist.

You can bet your boots that if the exact situation was reversed and it was Obama instead of McCain, Obama would be pretty much run out of the country. At the very least the MSM would be non stop 24\7 attacking Obama. Meanwhile, the MSM has quietly reported on the McCain-Scheunemann-Georgia connection\scandal and moved on to other issues.

The really sad thing is that over 2000 innocent people were killed and many thousands of lives were disrupted, their homes burned, their lives changed forever--and for what???

[jethrock]

Anyone who denies that Bush/Cheney/McCain would not start a war or our use our military for politics is completely out of touch with reality.

Wake up America!!!

[athenasword]

I guess people were pretty convinced that we didn't have the forces available and hoped they would show some shred of restraint. Who did they intend to send? Condi and the Boy Scouts?

[SamThornton]

Beyond what or who convinced Saakashvili to launch a seemingly Quixotic military attack against Russian peacekeeping forces in S. Ossetia is the issue of admitting small, unstable states into the NATO alliance.

It was just such a mistake that led the major powers of Europe in 1914 to let an incident in a minor ally blow up into World War I. Imagine that Georgia were a NATO partner and Saakashvili's S. Ossetia adventure had pulled other NATO partners into a full-fledged war with Russia? Admitting these marginal states into a major military alliance with the west is foreign policy blunder, pure and simple.

[Michale32086]

This, of course, COMPLETELY IGNORES the fact that the issue was provoked by the South Ossetians, likely at the behest of their Russian masters...

Michale.....

[SamThornton]

The usual baloney. Thanks.

[SamThornton]

Prove it.

[flydoghead]

CNN's misleading coverage of this event has been pathetic and totally misleading.

I can only hope that in the weeks to come they are challenged on the miserable job they have done.

[kasha]

Did Saak really think he could move in and seize South Ossetia by himself? How stupid is that?

Of course, that's not what happened. This was a neocon operation to help McCain and the neocon militarist agenda in general as well as Saak and his miserable approval ratings.

[Michale32086]

}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}
This was a neocon operation to help McCain and the neocon militarist agenda in general as well as Saak and his miserable approval ratings.
{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{

"He did!!!??? That's great!! And, of course, you can PROVE that, right?? Oh yea, that's right. I forgot. You were absent the day they taught LAW and Law School!!"
-Tom Cruise, A FEW GOOD MEN

Michale....

[newpantaloons]

This story is the most important story on the Huffington Post today (and perhaps for some time to come). This is the little October surprise that the right wing idealogues just love to spring on the American people right before an election. It just came a little early. During Obama's vacation. How convenient. This must be exposed. We cannot trust the MSM to do so, so someone with some investigative experience needs to get on this and never let up. Hopefully, Joe Biden will cast some much needed light on this travesty on his trip to Georgia. If the administration caused this little catastrophe in Georgia to help McCain get elected, then this is just the latest 'impeachable' offense that this criminal administration has fostered on the American people. I'm pretty sure this would qualify as a 'war crime'.

[Michale32086]

Well, if this has all been engineered by McCain and the GOP as ya'all claim, the you must acknowledge that McCain and the GOP **WANTED** Biden to go to Georgia...

There is only one logical reason to send a Democrat to Georgia.. To confirm what most of the INTELLIGENT people in the US already know...

All of this was instigated by Russia.

Michale.......

[newpantaloons]

"To confirm what most of the INTELLIGENT people in the US already know..."

Sorry, dummy, but if some of the most "INTELLIGENT" people in the US happened to be in this administration, then we wouldn't be in the mess we are now. If there were "INTELLIGENT" people in the administration, they might have looked at the PDB that said "Bin Laden determined to strike inside the US" using "airplanes as a weapon", then we wouldn't have had all the subsequent crimes that have been committed by this "INTELLIGENT" administration, now would we??

So, in my opinion (which is just as valid, if not more so, as yours), the fact that the "INTELLIGENT" administration sent Joe Biden to Georgia, is just another example of their blind arrogance. And, as far as what "most of the INTELLIGENT" people in the US already know...", I think you are just flacking for this criminal administration, as usual, and not really interested in what the actual INTELLIGENT people in this country already know. Why in the world would INTELLIGENT people believe ANYTHING that is put out by this administration?

I guess we know where that leaves you, don't we? It's as simple as that...

[flydoghead]

hey michale did you know that the moon is not really made of cheese ?

[pros54]

Seeing McCain is a paid mouthpiece for Saakashvili and you are here running around mouthing off for McCain, my question is how much are you paid? Is the chickenfeed you are getting worth the self debasement? Search your soul and ask for your real worth. It is too bad that you keep being fooled into being an unrecognized foot soldier that McCain is fronting for. You may be Georgian now(with McCain) but I happily remain American.

[nobillary1]

Was it INTELLIGENT for McCain to send his McCainettes, Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham, to Georgia before the cannons had even cooled off over there?

[Michale32086]

Russia's goal in it's Georgia campaign was twofold.

1. Sieze control of the series of Georgia Pipelines that feed oil and natural gas to Europe. This would give Russia control of each and every pipeline that feeds Europe..

2. Send a message to it's former satellite states. "You're Next"...

Russia has failed on both counts and failed miserably...

Russia launched a failed attack on GORI on Sunday. Georgian Army forces were able to repulse the attack by Russia's "best" (such as it is). Only when Russia brought in overwhelming odds were they able to take Gori on Mon/Tue..

Russia is now turning tail and running back to Russia.. It's ability to even remain in the rebellious regions is in doubt.

So, no pipeline control for Russia..

It's second goal to scare it's former satellites into running AWAY from the US & NATO has also failed. We know that the Czech Republic and Poland are running as fast as they can towards the US & NATO. We know have reports that Ukraine are offering their territory in a further link in the Missile Defense shield in exchange for a mutual defense pact with the US & NATO..

All around, it's obvious that Russia's foray into demanding respect from the world has met dismal failure..

Now, if you want to claim that McCain engineered such a downfall of Russia, then I guess that is your call to make. Frankly, I don't think McCain is that smart, but hay.. If you do........

Michale.....

[Thebottomliner]

If Russia's goal was to control the pipelines, they would have done so

[Michale32086]

Apparently, they failed... They thought that the US wouldn't raise a stink or that NATO wouldn't mobilize....

They were wrong on both counts..

The Russian Army is about as effective as the old USSR Red Army was. This is evidenced by the fact that they could take Gori the first time around.

Russia's 58th Army (which elements are in Georgia) is supposed to be part of Russia's "Crack" forces..

The only "cracking" the 58th did was cracking under pressure..

Michale.....

[Michale32086]

}}}}}}}}}
Now, if you want to claim that McCain engineered such a downfall of Russia,
}}}}}}}}}

That didn't come out right..

Change that to read, "If you want to claim that McCain engineered such a spanking of Russia,"

Michale......

[Thebottomliner]

So why do you think they (russians) decided not to assume control of the pipelines? Please do not say: Because of the strong reaction from the West.

[ChiGuy]

This proffers what I have been saying for a week.
There's no doubt in my mind that Saakashvili was under an impression, tacit or merely perceived, that he would have help.

[Michale32086]

Even if true, that doesn't change Russia's responsibility in this..

Michale.....

[clevelandchick]

Nor does it change the United States or McCain's responsibility in this.