Election Night Preview: GDP Trumps Gay Marriage

Tomorrow night's election results will be read, discussed and interpreted for weeks to come. But even before the first vote is counted, we can probably draw some conclusions from those races.

VIRGINIA

Let's start in the South. A big Republican win in Virginia will not be an earth mover, but instead confirm that the home of Thomas Jefferson and Robert E. Lee is a toss up state that still swings Republican. A Bob McDonnell victory will be seen by most in the media as reflecting a rising discomfort with the explosive growth of Washington, but also, perhaps more importantly, the weakness of the Democratic candidate.

While a Virginia loss may be easily explained away by Democrats, a New Jersey loss will not.

NEW JERSEY

Unlike the Virginia governor's race, the weakest candidate in the race for the Garden State's top job is a Republican. Chris Christie could never be confused with a first tier candidate, but the overweight former prosecutor may soon be moving his bulky frame into the governor's mansion in Princeton.

Every Democratic consultant I've talked to over the past few days has let loose involuntary groans every time they talked about this race. Many Democrats began quietly predicting the collapse of the independent candidate at the end of last week and assumed that factor would help Christie.

Last minute polls suggest they may be right.

Still, I believe the Democrats' turnout operation should keep this race tight all night. If the race is instead a blowout, that can only be bad news for the Democrats.

And for those second guessing the president's active involvement in Corzine's race, the fact is that Barack Obama had no choice but to jump head first into the Jersey fight. All the president's men know that a Republican sweep in New Jersey and Virginia will strike fear in the hearts of those swing state Democrats who now hold the future of health care in their sweaty moderate hands.

That reality may upset progressive Democrats but it is the reality that confronts the Obama White House tonight.

NEW YORK 23

While the twists and turns in Virginia and New Jersey have been fascinating to follow over the past few months, no race has been as entertaining as the special election for New York's 23rd congressional district.

Frank Rich used his Sunday column to suggest that conservatives' success in that district would signal the rise of Stalinism in American politics.

Other press reports have boiled the race down to a civil war over abortion and gay marriage.

And for their part, some conservatives have declared the rise of Doug Hoffman as an indictment of Barack Obama.

But all of these interpretations miss the bigger point.

Hoffman's ascendancy in NY-23 is less about Barack Obama than it is about a decade of bloated and corrupt Republican leadership in Washington, D.C. This race gave the same conservatives who helped drive Ronald Reagan's victory and the 1994 Republican Revolution something to cheer about for the first time in a long time. It also gave them an opportunity to stick it to an incompetent GOP Establishment.

This was, after all, same political party that promised to balance budgets in the 1990s, but then turned around and produced record deficits a over the next ten years.

And those same Republican leaders who called for military restraint and a focused foreign policy while Bill Clinton was president then spent the next decade promising to rid the world of tyranny by exporting Democracy across the globe.

For years GOP politicians would come on my set in Washington and quietly grouse about the political disaster that was George W. Bush. But then the red light on the camera would then come on and they would meekly fall in line. New York 23 suggests that sorry chapter may be coming to an end.

Who knows? Maybe the conservative movement is finally coming to terms with a lesson I learned long ago: that Republican political leaders can't be trusted any more than Democratic party leaders. After all, party bosses of all persuasions pledge loyalties to the advancement of their own party instead of your principles.

It took the departure of George Bush and the continued bungling of GOP leaders to finally stir up the sufficient amount of courage for small government conservatives to take on the Republican establishment.

The press will continue to make this race about abortion, gay marriage and Sarah Palin, but the fact is that Doug Hoffman has focused on his opponents' positions on the stimulus package, card check and higher taxes.

If you're a progressive, don't blame this race's outcome on Focus on the Family. Responsibility rests instead on Club for Growth. Tomorrow, the races in upstate New York as well as Virginia and New Jersey will be decided on one issue. The economy.

Here are my predictions a little more than 24 hours before the polls close:

Virginia-- Bob McDonnell by 10+
New Jersey-- Chris Christie by 1
New York 23-- Doug Hoffman by 7

After calling me all sorts of unseemly names for my backward thinking and knuckle-dragging ways, comment below and give me your predictions. I'd love to see what you think. I'm especially curious about what New Jersey residents think of their governor's race that will be seen by most voters as a choice between two uninspired candidates. (Despite my prediction, I still have a hard time seeing Jon Corzine losing this race.)

 

Comments

[ccopas]

u know I bet mr Scarborough would think differently if he was told that he couldn't marry the person he loves...

[dmf54]

To Joe Scarborough: please explain why you got it wrong in NY23. Why dId the Democratic candidate win?

[BHO 007]

The expert political media is terribly misinterpreting yesterday's elections in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia. The incumbent NJ Democratic Governor Jon Corzine lost to Republican Chris Christie, and VA Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by nearly 20 points. And in the crazy NY-23 congressional district, who cares who won as long as the Palin-Limbaugh Party promises to continue making Michele Bachmann-like statements. I can use the humor.

The New Jersey contest was predictable but the Virgina race intrigued me. Barack Obama won Virgina last November 53% to 46%, yet Republican McDonnell beat Democrat Deeds 59% to 41%. So what happened in Virgina? That's the $64,000 question. Deeds wasn't the best candidate, and McDonnell carefully straddled the Republican crazy world with solid conservative campaigning. Also, McDonnell survived his anti-modern working woman thesis, and he didn't anger the left. The NBC exit polls provide the answer but few are interested in facts; it's not the Republican­-Democrat-­Independen­t shift but the demographic shift. Young and black Democrats didn't vote.

Bin Quick

http://binquick.blogspot.com/

[vinny]

the under 30s that did vote, voted R...

[AoC]

Joe,

While I do not agree with you much of the time. I do like to listen to what you have to say and respect it. Much of what you say comes from research, experience and well, common sense. Yesterdays show on Ratigan (Morning Meeting) and in todays column here on HP pretty much support that.

I tend to look to the future while to me, republicans are rooted deep in the past. In every sense of the word. The past is great to learn from but its not where I want to live.

Intelligent dialog is seemingly lost in the countrys political debate and even if we agree to disagree on most issues. Its good to know that intelligence is still around. Albeit hard to find.

[jag61658]

Gee, Joe, weren't you one of those failed Republican leaders of the 1990's? Though I agree that the problem with party leaders is that they are PARTY leaders and not representatives of the people.
As I stated in a comment yesterday (which was never posted?), my prediction for the NY 23rd was the death of the Republican party. So I am one up on you, but I guess in Maine it was about gay marriage.
As for the media's referendum on President Obama, his party picked up two Congressional seats yesterday.

[Malkin72]

Bob McDonell was a strong candidate. Corzine was a weak one. I'm a leftist partisan but I'm glad he lost. He was the head of Goldman Sachs.

Good luck with that civil war, GOP. You just lost a district that hasn't turned blue since 1852.

The vote that disturbed me was the one in Maine. I cannot imagine going into a voting booth and taking away someone else's rights. It sickens me.

I know the numbers will never go this way....(an­d they know it, too)...but what if one day, in one state, gays outnumbered Christians­...

Could the precedent being sent be used to deny others rights they just take for granted.

Can we make it illegal to build a church within 1500 feet of a school?

What if vegans outnumbered the rest of us, could they take away the right to eat meat?

The vote in Maine is SO CLEARLY the tyranny of the majority that now ruins a country that could and should be great.

[Shookones]

2 out of 3 isn't bad Joe. The only thing is that you had Hoffman winning by 7, and he lost roughly that amount.

[ByersL]

Funny, apparently the NY 23rd went Dem...what you say now, Joe?

[sedc72]

I can only say this, in my opinion; after what the Republicans did to this country and the world over the last eight years, for ANY Democrat or Independent to vote for one means that you have not learn from history - 'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.'

[mitchflorida]

It's nice to see an alternative viewpoint here every now and then.

[Raul Garcia]

Not only am I disappointed, but I am also very worried about the fate of our future generations of this country.

If the Republicans, the same people who have shafted the working class of this country while embellishing the rich and elite get back into power, this country will definitely be a 3rd world nation within the next 20 years.

http://bad-money.com
http://measureofamerica.org

Obama should of took on Wall Street the first second he sat behind his desk in the Oval Office.

[TRex86]

A few pointers on the "gay marriage" issue: laws that restrict marriage to "a man and a woman" are testiony to profound ignorance. They don't just discriminate against gays; they discriminate against a number of other people on the basis of what could be deemed genetic handicaps. Such laws may well violate the Americans with Disabilities Act.
The matter is a simple question of biology. Only the willfully ignorant can miss the fact that "man" and "woman" aren't straight forward questions. A few examples will illustrate the point. People can be born genetically male and look like normal women. (Testicular feminization). Some lack an X chromosome (Turner's) or have one too many (Kleinfelter's). Neither of these categories can be called male or female. Others are born with ambiguous genitalia or features of both sexes (Hermaphroditism).
Of course, people can choose sex assignment surgery. Then what? Does Chaz Bono qualify as male of female? When? Do the cranks that support these idiotic laws understand that their legislation will logically lead to genetic testing as a pre-condition of marriage. Even then, what about the folks that don't fit either genetic identity? At the end of the day whatever one says one's sexual identity is that's what it is. It is no more appropriate to deny marriage to same sex couples than to couples who have different genetic endowments or developmental anomalies.

[citizen of the universe]

If Conservatives and or Republicans win these races tonight so what? How does that change the makeup of House or Senate seats. The focus on these races is media hype nothing more. 2010 will be the indicator as to the country's mood and right now both parties are in trouble.

[clevelandchick]

It's sad such a reactionary wing-nut is going to win VA. While it may be a more conservative state than New York, it's purple not red. The Dems screwed up royally. I tend to believe that if Howard Dean was still in charge, the Dems would have come up with a better candidate and run a better campaign.

Tim Kaine is a huge FAIL as head of the DNC.

[Dunelm]

I blame most Conservative victories these days on the influence of mega-churches and other religious organizations. They are havens of mass persuasion (some may say brain-washing) and have had tremendous power. Why? This Conservative movement has also massive financial backing.