1,627 is the Magic Number

Write it down. Post it on your desk or nightstand or computer. Spread the word.

While 2,025 is the number we more commonly hear from the media, here's something you should know: when a candidate hits 1,627 they have officially won the majority of pledged (i.e. democratically earned) delegates.

And Barack Obama is projected to hit that number on May 20th.

The math is simple. There are 4,048 delegates total. 796 of those are superdelegates. 3,252 are pledged based on the actual results of primaries and caucuses. 50% of 3,252 is 1,626 + 1 is 1,627.

Once Barack Obama passes 1,627 America has made its decision. He will have won the majority of earned delegates.

I refuse to believe the Democratic Party will blatantly override the will of the people once their decision is clear. So all you cult-ish hopemongerers, mark it down, tell your friends (and for the love of man, someone tell the mainstream media): 1,627 is the magic number.

And if you live in Kentucky or Oregon you will likely have the distinct honor of solidifying Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee for President of the United States of America.

UPDATE:

Alright, math isn't my strong point. I've updated 51% to 50% + 1. Regardless, 1,626 = Majority of earned delegates. Anything after that is gravy.

Comments

[DarrowFan]

I don't care how bad your math is. In the end, YOU'RE RIGHT, and thanks for pointing this out!

Listen up, mainstream media: 1627 is the magic number.

So TIRED of Hillary, by the way.

[zenbum]

51% of 3,252 is actually 1,659. Obviously, you meant to say 50% + 1.

Other than that, great article! :-)

[S1m0n]

You know what? This is getting tired. Wayyy tired. All the delegates have votes, and all deserve the space and respect to wield them in the best interests of the party.

Which they will do, at least as they see it. I'm sure by this point that none are unaware of the nature and strength of Obama's appeal, and of the cohort of new members he's bringing into the democratic coalition.

Let's make the argument for Obama on those grounds: that he's the best candidate for the party, and that we trust all the convention delegates to vote with this in mind.

Insulting the folks whose support you need is stupid politics. At least Hillary Clinton has the good sense to wait until AFTER a state votes against her before she tells them they shouldn't count. In this post (and in dozens of others on this site and others) Obama's partisans go Hillary Clinton one better, and launch futile (they won't be stripped of their votes, no matter what you think) and insulting attacks upon the party members who make up the superdelegates, attacking the legitimacy they earned by showing up, time and again, and working hard to carry the ball down the field for the nation and the democratic party.

Tell them that Obama has the biggest coattails, and that the voices flocking to the party can be the basis of a democratic party rout of the tired and corrupt republican machine this November. Tell them that voters--especially new voters--energised and excited by Obama are likely to STAY with the party, long term. Tell them that Hillary Clinton can only win by driving these VOTES away, and shrinking the party down to it's core. She hopes it'll carry her into the White House, and it may well work, but it'll also drive off the votes that the superdelegates who hold office need for their own reelection, and need to retain the legislative majorities they need to bring their own legislative priorities into being.

DON'T tell them they're illegitimate and better do as you say or they'll be sorry. That's dumb.

[Plowboy]

But if the math is against Hillasry Clinton thenthe math can be changed. Whatever it takes. We've seen lies, false accusations, and even the intrusion of a foreign Neocon government to illegally aid her with some lies. Whatever it takes. Her people call that bering tough. I cll it crooked. But I might not count. Better ask her.
I note the MSM jumping on lies thast help herr, ignoring the truth when that turns up. It isn't hard to change things in a damned fool country. And that must be what wee are, Bush changed things like that. He declartted lasws he didn't like as inapplicable to himself. He and Hillary are identical twins. Or had you already noticed that too? This is how they act abroad too. That is why other people hate us so much. "Why do they hate us so much when we are so good?"

[ulahane]

I agree 100% that the Democratic Party should not "blatantly override the will of the people." However, the will of the people is is the total number of votes in ALL states and territories. It would be a complete disgrace if we repeat the 2000 election and the winner of the popular vote loses.

[Kasandra]

Excellent point! Thanks for doing the math.

[Ozarks]

Your math is fine if the number of attainable pledged delegates is 3252. I have never heard any qualifier caveat by any media that Fl and MI "pledged delegates" are not in this total. Florida and Michigan pledged delegates have been rejected by the DNC so that 320? ( my off top of head estimate on Fl and Mi) or so pledged delegates should be eliminated from any equation. So, if my 320 Florida and Michigan estimate is close then; 3252 minus 320= 2932 pledged delegates that Under present DNC Rules are all that can possibly be won. And, 2932 divided by 2 to find "majority" = 1466 +1 pledged delegates. I have heard Obama has above 1500 now but that may include these "Super delegates". Anyway, at 1466+1 pledged delegates should be hit well before May.
As for the Media's number of 3252/4048 , they should qualify that number each time it is stated with whether it contains Florida and Michigan pledged and Super delegate totals. One should ask also, if DNC has rejected FL and MI pledged delegates shouldn't their Super Delegates be eliminated ?Why? Many of them as FL and MI alleged "party elders" had to be involved in the primary dates chosen over objection of DNC.

[Clinton]

If things keep moving along like this, we may be on the way to getting our country back.

[jvarga]

Point well taken, but terrible math. 1627 out of 3252 is 50.03% :P

[TAHARQA]

need to update that magic # to 1659

[robXdion]

I thought the same. But that'll only leave her with 49.97% to gain. He still has a majority. Anything past 1627 is gravy.

235 pledged delegates left.

[FullChat]

1626 would be a tie, where 1627 would be More Than 50%. Duh.

[jvarga]

And yet in my world 50.03 does not equal 51, nor does it round to 51 :P

Yes obviously the point was that 1627 is a majority.

[MPeter]

That was beautifully done! Thank you. Now one can only hope that the lazy and foolish MSM will pay attention to the math and begin printing news instead of propaganda.

[LeftRight]

To quote the only time that I liked what Rudy Guliani said:

"Why start now?"

[aceholiday]

Hurray for non-fascism and non-authoritarianism. Obama 08

[SCharb]

Thanks for the heads up!