With Michigan and Florida, Obama Will Win Nomination by May 20th

For the past several days, the Clinton campaign has been clamoring for a re-vote in the delegate-rich states of Florida and Michigan. The poor judgment of the leadership in these states to move their primaries before February 5th and be stripped of their delegates, the argument goes, should not be held against the people. Their voices should be heard and their votes counted.

Of course, the Clintons haven't been quite as keen on democracy when it comes to pledged versus superdelegates. But trailing now by over 150 pledged delegates and 100 total delegates with just over 600 left to divvy up, this strategy, on the surface, seems to make sense for Hillary Clinton. After all, Florida and Michigan are big states, she "won" them both originally, and would be favored in a do-over.

However, looking a little closer, there is actually a compelling case for the Obama campaign to agree to the Clintons' request. If Michigan and Florida are put back in play, it turns out, it will actually speed up Barack Obama's victory. Instead of going all the way to the Democratic Convention in August (where it could get ugly and complicated), Barack Obama could secure the nomination by May 20th. Here's how:

According to RealClearPolitics, Barack Obama currently has 1,573 total delegates to 1,464 for Hillary Clinton. Add in Michigan (128) and Florida (185) and suddenly 313 more delegates are up for grabs. Let's say Hillary wins both of these states by 12-point margins, 56-44. This will give her approximately 165 delegates to 148 for Barack Obama, a net gain of 17.

That puts Barack Obama at 1,721 to 1,629 for Hillary Clinton.

Now, word is circulating in the press that 50 pledged delegates are going to come out for Barack Obama by the end of this week so if we add those in that puts him at approximately 1,771.

That's when the remaining states come in. Here are my modest approximations for the states holding primaries and caucuses up to May 20th:

Wyoming: 12 delegates (8 for Obama, 4 for Clinton) Mississippi: 33 delegates (20 for Obama, 13 for Clinton) Pennsylvania: 158 delegates (74 for Obama, 84 for Clinton) Guam: 4 delegates (3 for Obama, 1 for Clinton) Indiana: 72 delegates (36 for Obama, 36 for Clinton) North Carolina: 115 delegates (65 for Obama, 50 for Clinton) West Virginia: 28 delegates (13 for Obama, 15 for Clinton) Kentucky: 51 delegates (24 for Obama, 27 for Clinton) Oregon: 52 delegates (30 for Obama, 22 for Clinton)

And the grand total is...

Barack Obama: 2,034 (reaches the 2,025 threshold and wins the nomination)
Hillary Clinton: 1,881

Of course, the more superdelegates start jumping to Obama (which has been the trend since February 5th), the sooner he can wrap up the nomination. It is not farfetched at all to believe he could be the presumptive nominee by May 6th.

So send the memo to the Obama campaign: Give in to Hillary's demand. Let Florida and Michigan re-vote. It only speeds up the path to the magic number.

UPDATE:

Well, apparently my analysis is somewhat flawed. The 2,025 threshold, according to some sources, would increase to 2,208 with Michigan and Florida, though this hasn't been officially confirmed by the DNC and likely won't be until they set the new ground rules with the re-votes for these states.

Bottom line: I think this will be over by May one way or the other, particularly if Obama is able to do better than expected in Michigan, Florida and/or Pennsylvania.

Bottom line 2: If Hillary Clinton had any regard for the party above herself, she would drop out when the math becomes impossible to overcome (ie if she doesn't win Pennsylvania 85-15).

Joe Vogel is the author of Free Speech 101 and The Obama Movement .

Comments

[Silpat]

You forgot South Dakota.

[chasgoose]

When will people grasp the concept that in the way it was set up, the Democratic Party Primary process is not entirely democratic? The entire reason that superdelegates exist is for the Democratic Party to step in in a close race and choose the candidate they would rather support regardless of the delegates won through primaries and caucuses. There is absolutely no reason that superdelegates should feel obligated to vote for the popular vote winner if they would rather have someone else as the nominee. What is the point of having superdelegates if they are simply supposed to kowtow to the pledged delegates from the nomination contests?

Clinton should stay in the race until the bitter end unless it becomes clear that Obama is going to lock up the nomination regardless of the superdelegates. Just as its almost a mathematical impossibility for Clinton to catch Obama, its even more of a mathematical impossibility for Obama to secure the nomination without the help of superdelegates. If HIllary wins Pennsylvania decisively (even if she doesn't win by the ridiculous amount required to surpass Obama's delegates), the DNC and superdelegates are going to have to ask serious questions about the will of the people and the strength of a nominee whose campaign freefalled after one of the best months for any candidate in recent memory. Obama and his supporters can keep arguing for a subversion of the rules set by the DNC for their nomination process, but unless he wins the nomination without superdelegates he is no more entitled to superdelegate votes or the nomination itself than Clinton.

[Lon]

If the states are willing to pay for it, then Michigan and Florida should be allowed to revote, not because it favors this or that candidate, but because it is the right thing to do. Let Crist explain to voters why the Republican's decision to move the primary up cost the state 10 million dollars.

And if this were done it would remove one of the reasons that I think Clinton should get out of the race now, namely that all her staying in does is force an ugly debate on seating delegates. (The other is that she seems to be staying in the race by campaigning for McCain. The mystery of how he will survive the gap in fundraising has been somewhat answered by Clinton's decision to run ads that favor McCain over either Clinton or Obama and then to praise McCain for his experience while making that the heart of her campaign).

I still want Obama to win regardless, but there would be no moral imperative that Clinton get out for the sake of the party if the timebomb that Florida and Michigan represent were to be resolved reasonably.

[zenbum]

Joe, the logic in your article is so flawed that even your updates are wrong.

Assuming they stick to the original delegate numbers of 210 for Florida and 156 for Michigan, that would add a total of 366 delegates. Half of that is 183. Add that to 2025 and you get 2208, which would be the new threshold.

However, the problems with your logic are more fundamental than just arithmetic errors. The basic premise is simply wrong. If you give Hillary more delegates than she would have gotten otherwise, it doesn't make Obama's job easier, it makes it harder. He doesn't win sooner, he wins later. Isn't that obvious?

You need to go back to the drawing board on this article. Almost everything in it is exactly wrong.

[zenbum]

Here's another way to calculate what the magic threshold number would be with MI & FL:

Under the current setup, without MI or FL, there will be 4048 delegate votes at the convention (there will actually be more delegates than that, since some of them only have half a vote). Seating the delegates from MI and FL would add another 366 votes, for a total of 4414. You need 50% + 1 to win the nomination, which would be 2208.

As further evidence that this number is correct, 2208 is the threshold figure the Clinton campaign has been touting in their mailings. Everything they now send out to their supporters just assumes they will succeed in getting the MI & FL delegates seated.

[margotb822]

I never thought I would say this, but I think that Clinton as our nominee hands the election to the Republicans. There are still too many people out there who love to hate her (and Bill). Obama has a clear advantage in head-to-head polls, so I do think that he will win the GE. And we need to win this year. We cannot afford another 4-8 Republican years.

So, I'm not going to ask Hillary to step down (yet) but, I hope Obama wraps this thing up soon!

www.serveoutloud.blogspot.com

[mslindab]

Thanks you have cheered me up . .. also check both websites (OBAMA/HILLARY) and look at the state blogs. Obama has activity in Michigan and Florida. Clinton has nothing much that I have seen so far.

[rwilliams1961]

Interesting. I had been wondering about that. Thanks for the info.

[Preya]

Superdelegates should agree to split down the middle, favoring neither candidate over the other. The person in the delegate lead would still come out ahead, and no one can complain that the superdelegates were being unfair.

[hazmaq]

Someone might tell Senator Bill Nelson and MSNBC a thing or two about what RULES area and mean before they try to place all the blame on Howard Dean . "Hillary Rosen, MSNBC's Democratic strategist, on Dean: "Well you know he's been a terrible leader..."­; MSNBC game show hostess " the 'party' is being pressured to seat those delegates -why is Dean doing this to the party and those voters?"
MSNBC, "Obama just doesn't to want to admit that he lost Florida because the hispanic voters didn't support, and Michigan's voters are all poor and therefore part of Hillary's base and therefore Obama lost there -anyway. What utter Bullshit!
'

If Hillary and her female supporters are willing to steal an election -then they are worse than anything I've seen their male Republican counterparts do. l
And I'll sell my house to help fund Obama and TO keep them the hell away from any government office -my kids AND I have suffered ENOUGH!

So when she gets that phone call at 3:00am -

[Lon]

Hillary Rosen is openly a Clinton supporter. MSNBC has plenty of people on it who are supporting Obama. In watching you should take what Rosen says to represent Clinton, but not MSNBC.

[trevor01]

Hillary isn't a pushover. Also, she knows how to turn hope into reality.

[detriangulation]

I think you may have Obama overperforming in West Virginia, and Indiana could pull more either way, but other than that these seem like sound predictions. Regardless of strategic advantage though, Florida and Michigan are going to have to be seated in some fashion because it's the right thing to do.

[kps104]

Also you forgot Puerto Rico

[1dogs2]

Oops -- sorry, I read the prediction backwards. It's not out of line.

[1dogs2]

How did you arrive at your estimate of the outcome of the Pennsylvania primary? It's way out of line with the estimates of other predicters, including the Obama campaign (which has been remarkably accurate to this point)? Please explain.

[DRHoen]

I think he is making conservative estimates.

[fairwitness]

Well! This is very encouraging, thank you very much, sir.

It only remains, then, for Hillary Clinton to do as much damage to the party as humanly possible in the meantime. Her ambition and sense of personal entitlement are wreaking havoc and she and her supporters know it.

She is setting fire to the house she can't own.