Debunking the "Bradley Effect"

The so-called "Bradley Effect" is named after Tom Bradley, who lost his bid to become America's first black governor in 1982. The theory is that voters in California purposely misrepresented themselves and their biases against Bradley, an African American, leading to inaccurate poll results.

Of course, with Barack Obama so close to becoming our first black President, analysts and pundits are resurrecting talk of the Bradley Effect as if it were a matter of science, when it may actually be pseudoscience. Are we digging deeply enough to find the truth?

Dan Walters, political columnist for the Sacramento Bee, was at the center of the storm 26 years ago. He covered California's gubernatorial race and provides unique perspectives on why he strongly believes the "Bradley Effect" is a political myth.

Read part of the NOW on PBS exclusive interview with Walters here:

NOW: As someone who covered California's 1982 gubernatorial election, do you believe the so-called Bradley Effect is a myth or a true phenomenon?

In any election poll you're going to have people who don't tell the truth, but my contention is that the so-called Bradley Effect did not decide that election. If you look at the actual results of the election, and you look at the polling before the election, you see that they're not really in conflict. The Bradley Effect is, in fact, a myth.

NOW: But what about polls before the election that showed Tom Bradley winning?

"Bradley was so confident that he had won he actually stopped campaigning about ten days before the election."Ahead of the election, the polling showed that Tom Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles, had a modest, not overwhelming, lead in the election, something like 5 or 6 percentage points. The polling that was being done at that time was based on an understandable assumption that all of the votes would be cast on Election Day. Based on the polling, Bradley's campaign was convinced that they had already won the election. So much so that Team Bradley were literally dividing up office space in the governor's suite, and figuring out who would get what job in Bradley's new administration.

NOW: So what happened?

Bradley was so confident that he had won he actually stopped campaigning about ten days before the election. It was so widely believed that he was going to win that many in the California news media stopped traveling with his campaign. Reporters were even writing up their articles in advance on how Bradley won and the historic nature of having America's first black governor.

While Bradley stopped campaigning, his opponent, Republican Attorney General George Deukmejian, kept on going. Before the election, I was traveling with Deukmejian and his campaign. On the Saturday before the election, his team showed me some private polling data, which indicated that Deukmejian was within three or four points of Bradley, which is more or less the margin of error in most polling. In fact, V. Lance Tarrance, Jr., who was Deukmejian's pollster, recently wrote an article debunking the Bradley Effect, citing the daily tracking polls he was conducting--the data that Deukmejian's staff shared with me a few days before the election--indicating that the race was narrowing.

NOW: So they thought there was a chance they could win?

"In California political circles it is well known that the Bradley Effect was dreamed up after the fact to explain away polling and campaign strategy errors."Based on that polling, Deukmejian's campaign believed they had a real chance of winning. And one reason was because of the absentee vote. A few years earlier, the legislature had liberalized voting rules, making it much easier to vote absentee, thinking it would help the Democrats. But the Republicans saw this and decided to use it to their advantage. They had lists of people who were gun owners and other conservatives and organized a vote-by-mail turnout campaign to mobilize them to vote against a gun control measure also on the ballot and vote for Deukmejian at the same time, believing that the mailed ballots could be decisive in an otherwise close election.

NOW: What happened on election night?

Read the rest of this interview...

Follow Joel B. Schwartzberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/now_on_pbs

Comments

[JScott]

Oh please I never heard about the Bradley effect until now I didn't hear about it in the 1982 gub election. Bradley is deceased, 2 white mayors got elected after him and the current one is hispanic
I'ts just Seinfeldian-it's about NOTHING!

[Tulka2]

The Democrats talk about the Bradley effect because they are afraid of it, but they are playing right into the fact that certain cult-like members of the Republican party are certainly intending to steal this election if they can find a way to get away with it. If it's close in any state, it can be stolen and the people are already used to the idea and "likely-hood" of a Bradley effect. I'm not buying. Recount if it's close.

[Skepticat]

I suspect that there might even be an anti-Bradley effect where people surrounded by right wingers might nod with the local dittoheads and secretly vote for Obama and the democrats. In some areas it may be safer than posting signs.

[CBS]

Things have changed a lot in 26 years. People are much more open to electing African Americans or any so called minority candidate. There is no similarity btwn Obama who is mercurial and Mayor Bradley whose personality made cardboard look like it had a rich inner life.The Bradley Effect is simply something the media is using to keep some kind of element of suspense in the campaign. It serves them well but has pretty much been debunked. By registering huge numbers of new voters committed to them and having a database of their cell numbers he has virtually Bradley proofed himself.

[thankulord13]

Please have you seen the campaign rallies of McCain and Palin. I am sorry but I don't think this nation especially the majority are as evolved as they like to think they are....

[JonG345]

Please don't debunk anything. Let's keep democrats scared of a slight loss until we actually win this thing.

[blaqntelligence]

I am sick unto death of hearing about this Bradley Effect.
In the words of a poster whose sn I've since forgotten (but three words I'll remember forever):
The Mandela Effect.
The media must have something to make into a story. The bradley effect is the perfect foil.
In this time of historical firsts, it would serve us well to not continue to measure this election by the past.
Just about everything about this election is a first......Except for the conduct of republicans......
Let's stand the Bradley Effect on its head, stop attempting to predict what people will do privately, and focus on bringing to pass the Mandela Effect.
Generations from now it will also be known as the Obama Effect.

Obama/Biden '08

[thankulord13]

This Mandela Effect worked because Mandela was in a country where he was apart of the numerical majority. If Obama wins it would be nothing short of a miracle!

[blaqntelligence]

I am Black and I am offended each time I hear this bradley effect put forth as an argument in this election.
What of all of those White people who have worked and donated and traveled and campaigned to get Barack Obama into office.
Have endorsed him against their own party?
Do you honestly believe that the majority of those people just lied to not appear racist?
IMO, THAT is the racist sentiment.
People of all colors support Obama. Will there be a few who lied? Of course.
Enough to deny him the presidency? I will believe that on Nov. 5th.

[BobLablah]

You better hope there's no Bradley effect in this election, because if there is, that would mean democrats are racist and lie to poll takers. Or Cheney figured out how to rig the vote again. Maybe he's working fro ACORN.

[kristycu]

This comment makes no since- considering dems, repubs, and independents are polled and if that were true- how did Obama become the nominee of the DEMOCRATIC PARTY????

[thankulord13]

No it would mean that White Americans will need to look inside themselves and figure out why they are so afraid of Black people succeeding in this society!

[blaqntelligence]

This comment to in responce to thankulord13's above:

I am Black and I am offended each time I hear this bradley effect put forth as an argument in this election.
What of all of those White people who have worked and donated and traveled and campaigned to get Barack Obama into office.
Have endorsed him against their own party?
Do you honestly believe that the majority of those people just lied to not appear racist?
IMO, THAT is the racist sentiment.
People of all colors support Obama. Will there be a few who lied? Of course.
Enough to deny him the presidency? I will believe that on Nov. 5th.