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Joel D. Hirst

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Examining Venezuela's Primary Results

Posted: 02/13/2012 5:48 pm

The Venezuelan opposition has a new leader. Yesterday, after a grueling five month campaign, the Venezuelan opposition under the umbrella of the Mesa de Unidad Democratica went to the polls to chose their united candidate who will face President Chavez in the October 7 general elections. Vying for the top place where five candidates: one parliamentarian, two governors, a former party leader and a former diplomat.

After the votes were placed and the results were tabulated, one clear winner emerged.

Henrique Capriles Radonski, Governor of Miranda State (the nation's second most populous state and home to 1/2 of Caracas) was the winner. Capriles, a 39 year old governor, has been involved in Venezuelan politics for more than a decade. First as the youngest president of the Parliament in Venezuelan history; then Mayor of Baruta Municipality in greater Caracas and finally Governor of Miranda state. Capriles has never lost an election.

There are two important takeaways to yesterday's election. First was the mandate. Capriles was chosen by 1.8 million voters -- a full 64% of the turnout. He received nearly one million votes more than his main challenger, Zulia State Governor Pablo Perez. This is a powerful message both to the Venezuelans seeking a change from President Chavez; and for the pro-Government population seeking to paint the opposition as still divided.

Second, and perhaps more important, was voter turnout. Roughly 3,000,000 voters participated in the primary. This represents 16% of the electorate. Experts (including myself) estimated that with 2,000,000 votes the opposition would be able to declare success. Yesterday's voter turnout was significantly higher -- shielding the opposition from any criticism that would have come with a low turnout.

Yesterday marked the beginning of Venezuela's general election. The contest will be a difficult one. President Chavez is entrenched in power; and will use the not-unsubstantial power of the office (and its corresponding control over the oil wealth) to hold onto power. But now, the opposition also has a man to unite around. This is a pivotal election for the Venezuelan people; perhaps their most important yet. Through their participation, they are beginning it right.

 

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The Venezuelan opposition has a new leader. Yesterday, after a grueling five month campaign, the Venezuelan opposition under the umbrella of the Mesa de Unidad Democratica went to the polls to chose ...
The Venezuelan opposition has a new leader. Yesterday, after a grueling five month campaign, the Venezuelan opposition under the umbrella of the Mesa de Unidad Democratica went to the polls to chose ...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Pearce banned
Never let them tell you it can't be done.
01:51 AM on 02/14/2012
So, basically, in Venezuela, you have the right wing settling on Chavez-light (with more than a third of the right voting against him) hoping that between their base who hates Chavez, and their demonization of Chavez to suppress his vote, and get a portion of the independants, plus Chavez's failure to totally solve the economic problems he inherited from the right wing governments of the past (an impossible task to do in the time he's had, in the face of the opposition he's had, but something he's done a lot better job than a right winger could have) in the hopes of getting someone they will have a lot more control of into the President's office.

Sounds a lot like what the American election is shaking out to being, doesn't it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Bourbon
04:43 PM on 02/14/2012
Chavez inherited the highest crime rate in South America, the highest inflation rate in the hemisphere, and falling oil production from "right wing" governments of the past?

You're funny...
07:36 PM on 02/14/2012
The barrel of oil was also about $21 when he got into office and e presided now is what ~$70 and at its peak during Chavez was way over $100 . So wha has Chavez done with all the windfall of petrodoalrs? .

Venezuela murder rate is now way worst than before.
Venezuela is one of the worst economies in Latin America.
Venezuela is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

Nice balance after 13 yeras of Chavez
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Pearce banned
Never let them tell you it can't be done.
11:13 PM on 02/14/2012
No, he inherited a large severely impoverished population with little education andwhich skills, and a massive infrastructure deficit.

Which left him with the choice of either continuing the oppressive, brutal oppression of the population in perpetuity, or a short term spike in crime, and devoting the entire resources of the country to servicing the oil sector, or using those resources to start addressing the infrastructure deficit (and the education/employment deficit) which, unlike the option of supporting the oil sector, leads to the growth of a diverse economy that can survive the oil running out or becoming something that is being regulated out of profitability (which is what will happen when global warming effects become too severe to ignore)
09:05 PM on 02/13/2012
For Venezuela lets hope that Capriles and the opposition keep their momentum. It will be adifficult up-hill battle. Chavez as in the past will use all the goverment money, intimidation and some help from the electorate council to make sure he "wins" another election
08:46 PM on 02/13/2012
So happy for my dear Venezuela... also, interestingly, no comments on this article. However, when it's about bad news, comments abound.